This Matchweek

LeedsNewcastle

Leeds v Newcastle result

Full-time · Leeds 4–1 Newcastle

Premier League · · Elland Road

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Leeds · Newcastle · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Leeds 4–1 Newcastle — Leeds won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick
Home or Draw
Best price: 1.42 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.4% of 1739 landed (95% range 74.3–78.3%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,041 of 1,389 times (74.9%), against an average rating of 70.3%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Leeds: 2.29 to 0.80 in expected goals, from 15 shots to 8, ahead on xG from the 10th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Leeds beat Newcastle 4–1 at Elland Road in the Premier League on Monday 14 September. Leeds have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions. Newcastle have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Leeds led 3–0 at half-time. The goals TACTIX’s match events name — Newcastle: an own goal by Lewis Miley (32’) and Bazoumana Touré (90’); Leeds: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (34’, assisted by James Justin; 45’, assisted by Tarik Muharemović) and Noah Okafor (59’).

Discipline

Michael Salisbury, England showed three yellow cards — against 3.5 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Leeds: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (44’); Newcastle: Jacob Murphy (54’) and T. Livramento (90+1’).

What it changes

Leeds move up from eighth to third (four league matches played). Leeds have scored nine goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Leeds have conceded eight goals, the third-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Newcastle move down from fifth to 12th (four league matches played). Newcastle have scored 12 goals, the eighth-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Newcastle have conceded 15 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds) 7.4, Jayden Bogle (Leeds) 6.6 and Noah Okafor (Leeds) 6.5 led the match.

Head-to-head

Newcastle are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Leeds, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Leeds or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 76.4% of the time in the last 90 days (1328 of 1739).

Next up

Leeds next host Tottenham on 7 November 2026.

Newcastle next travel to Fulham on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Leeds: Leeds v Tottenham, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Newcastle: Fulham v Newcastle, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Leeds 4–1 Newcastle · Premier League
  • Venue: Elland Road · Leeds
  • Referee: Michael Salisbury, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Leeds 0 · draws 4 · Newcastle 2 · 2.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: Leeds 2W 2D 1L · Newcastle 3W 2D 0L

Leeds 4–1 Newcastle (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 28 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 1.75
Goals
against 1.5 / 1.25 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
4.13 / 6.25
Corners
against 6.25 / 3.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.63 / 4.5
Shots on target
against 5.38 / 5.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.5 / 2
Cards
against 2.13 / 2.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 9 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 9 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLeeds for / againstLineNewcastle for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1.5 against n 8
2.75our book
1.75 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
4.13 for · 6.25 against n 8
9.5standard
6.25 for · 3.75 against n 8
Shots
11.88 for · 16.13 against n 8
19.5standard
13.88 for · 16.88 against n 8
Shots on target
3.63 for · 5.38 against n 8
8.5standard
4.5 for · 5.38 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.88 for · 11.5 against n 8
21.5standard
11.88 for · 14.38 against n 8
Cards shown
1.5 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
2 for · 2.38 against n 8

Referee: Michael Salisbury, England.

Leeds

Leeds Goalkeeper

Leeds — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Trafford490360 min133.3 /9020.5 /9000 /90
M. Zetterer19090 min22 /9000 /9000 /90
Leeds — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 9 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Trafford n 490
3.24/3

Leeds Defensive

Leeds — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
T. Muharemović590450 min61.2 /9071.4 /9071.4 /90255 /9030.6 /9000 /90
J. Bijol464254 min41.4 /9051.8 /9000 /90196.7 /9010.4 /9000 /90
N. Elvedi379236 min51.9 /9051.9 /9031.1 /90135 /9010.4 /9000 /90
J. Rodon371214 min10.4 /9031.3 /9010.4 /9093.8 /9041.7 /9000 /90
D. James353159 min10.6 /9010.6 /9010.6 /9074 /9042.3 /9000 /90
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Leeds — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 9 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
E. Ampadu n 890
1.58/3
1.15/3
—
J. Justin n 890
15/3
1.57/3
Lewis Hall
T. Muharemović n 590
0.62/1
0.62/1
A. Dedić
A. Stach n 869
1.54/3
1.86/3
—
N. Okafor n 856
0.42/0
1.24/2
H. Barnes
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Leeds — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 9 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Justin n 890
3.88/7
E. Ampadu n 890
2.58/7
T. Muharemović n 590
1.23/2
A. Stach n 869
3.17/7
B. Aaronson n 857.1
14/1
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Leeds Attacking

Leeds — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
N. Okafor549245 min00 /9010.4 /9010.4 /9000 /9041.5 /9093.3 /90
H. Wilson548241 min00 /9010.4 /9000 /9000 /9072.6 /9020.7 /90
Dominic Calvert-Lewin469277 min20.6 /9000 /9051.6 /9041.3 /9020.6 /9010.3 /90
L. Nmecha447187 min00 /9021 /9041.9 /9000 /9041.9 /9031.4 /90
E. Ampadu590450 min00 /9000 /9020.4 /9000 /9040.8 /9010.2 /90
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Leeds — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 9 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Justin n 890
0.85/1
0.43/0
T. Muharemović n 590
0.82/1
0.62/1
E. Ampadu n 890
0.32/0
00/0
A. Stach n 869
1.87/3
0.53/0
B. Aaronson n 857.1
1.23/2
0.83/1
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Leeds — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 9 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
T. Muharemović n 590
0.21/0
00/0
J. Justin n 890
0.11/0
00/0
E. Ampadu n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Stach n 869
0.32/0
00/0
N. Okafor n 856
0.21/0
0.21/0
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Newcastle

Newcastle Goalkeeper

Newcastle — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
L. Horníček490360 min164 /9041 /9000 /90
E. Jaouen19090 min11 /9022 /9000 /90
Newcastle — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 9 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
L. Horníček n 490
44/4

Newcastle Defensive

Newcastle — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
S. Botman590450 min20.4 /9020.4 /9081.6 /90285.6 /9010.2 /9010.2 /90
Lewis Hall590449 min132.6 /9071.4 /9071.4 /90336.6 /9061.2 /9000 /90
A. Dedić581405 min81.8 /9020.4 /9030.7 /90214.7 /90102.2 /9000 /90
M. Thiaw490360 min00 /9020.5 /9092.3 /90174.3 /9041 /9000 /90
F. Schär19090 min00 /9000 /9011 /9066 /9000 /9000 /90
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Newcastle — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 9 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. Botman n 890
0.43/0
14/2
—
Lewis Hall n 889.9
15/2
1.45/4
J. Justin
A. Dedić n 581
2.24/4
1.14/1
T. Muharemović
H. Barnes n 869.1
0.73/1
1.64/3
N. Okafor
Y. Wissa n 852.3
1.33/2
35/4
—
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Newcastle — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 9 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
S. Botman n 890
0.85/1
Lewis Hall n 889.9
2.38/6
A. Dedić n 581
1.84/3
H. Barnes n 869.1
0.83/2
Y. Wissa n 852.3
1.33/1
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Newcastle Attacking

Newcastle — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Y. Wissa571353 min10.3 /9010.3 /9092.3 /9020.5 /9030.8 /9051.3 /90
N. Woltemade255109 min00 /9010.8 /9010.8 /9000 /9021.7 /9021.7 /90
M. Fernandez-Pardo22651 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9011.8 /90
W. Osula15656 min00 /9011.6 /9000 /9000 /9011.6 /9000 /90
H. Barnes581404 min30.7 /9000 /90102.2 /9051.1 /9040.9 /9020.4 /90
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Newcastle — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 9 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
S. Botman n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Lewis Hall n 889.9
0.96/1
0.32/0
A. Dedić n 581
0.42/0
00/0
H. Barnes n 869.1
2.17/3
1.15/1
Y. Wissa n 852.3
2.25/3
0.42/0
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Newcastle — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 9 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Botman n 890
00/0
00/0
Lewis Hall n 889.9
00/0
0.32/0
A. Dedić n 581
00/0
0.72/1
H. Barnes n 869.1
0.73/1
0.21/0
Y. Wissa n 852.3
0.21/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LeedsNewcastle
50%Possession50%
2.08Expected goals (xG)0.88
15Shots7
6Shots on target5
4Shots off target2
5Blocked shots0
10Shots inside the box4
5Corners5
2Offsides3
8Fouls13
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
4Saves3
440Passes433
84%Pass accuracy82%

Leeds Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Trafford9000000007
T. Muharemović9001001107.2
J. Justin9000002207.2
N. Elvedi9000100106.5
E. Ampadu9000000107.2
A. Stach8800103206.9
J. Bogle8310331207
Dominic Calvert-Lewin78113210Y8
A. Tanaka7200000207.3
N. Okafor7210111207.9
G. Gudmundsson7200000307.3
B. Aaronson sub1800000006.3
M. Bard sub1800001106.2
H. Wilson sub1800000106.9
D. James sub1200100006.9
L. Nmecha sub1200000006.7
S. Longstaff sub20000000–

Newcastle Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
L. Horníček9000000006.7
Y. Wissa9000102105.9
M. Thiaw9000000005.9
Lewis Hall9000110406.5
S. Botman9000000206
H. Barnes9000221006.9
L. Miley8000000105.9
M. Fernandez-Pardo5800001106.3
A. Dedić5800000305.6
J. Murphy57000001Y6.3
Nico González1900000006.3
Sean Steur sub7100001206.3
B. Touré sub3310110007.6
T. Livramento sub32000002Y6.3
J. Willock sub3200211106.6
A. Bamba sub1000000106.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Leeds v Newcastle — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LeedsWWDDL
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
NewcastleDWWDW
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Leeds 0 · 4 draws · Newcastle 2 · 2.33 goals/game
  • 2026-01-07 Newcastle 4–3 Leeds
  • 2025-08-30 Leeds 0–0 Newcastle
  • 2023-05-13 Leeds 2–2 Newcastle
  • 2022-12-31 Newcastle 0–0 Leeds
  • 2022-01-22 Leeds 0–1 Newcastle
  • 2021-09-17 Newcastle 1–1 Leeds
League standing · 2026/27
Leeds#12 pos11 pts9 pl+1 GD
Newcastle#13 pos11 pts9 pl-3 GD
Goals per game
Leeds scored1
Newcastle scored1.33
Leeds conceded0.89
Newcastle conceded1.67

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Leeds 2.29 xG from 15 shots, Newcastle 0.80 from 8. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin 37' · 0.74 xGHarvey Barnes 40' · 0.54 xGAnton Stach 54' · 0.42 xGJayden Bogle 13' · 0.13 xGDominic Calvert-Lewin 33' · 0.07 xGJoe Willock 71' · 0.07 xGNico Elvedi 26' · 0.06 xGAo Tanaka 31' · 0.06 xGYoane Wissa 71' · 0.05 xGDaniel James 84' · 0.04 xGNoah Okafor 27' · 0.04 xGDaniel James 93' · 0.04 xGEthan Ampadu 10' · 0.03 xGDominic Calvert-Lewin 37' · 0.03 xGJayden Bogle 24' · 0.02 xGJoe Willock 76' · 0.02 xGHarvey Barnes 64' · 0.02 xGLewis Hall 53' · 0.01 xGLewis Miley 31' · 0.00 xGDominic Calvert-Lewin 45' · 0.48 xG · goalBazoumana Touré 89' · 0.09 xG · goalJayden Bogle 33' · 0.08 xG · goalNoah Okafor 58' · 0.05 xG · goal
Leeds (attacking right)Newcastle (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Leeds1532.29
Newcastle810.80

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Leeds led on xG, 1.74 to 0.54. At full time, Leeds led on xG, 2.29 to 0.80. The widest gap was 1.65 xG to Leeds, in the 58th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.31.100′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Leeds 33 minGoal - Leeds 45 minGoal - Leeds 58 minGoal - Newcastle 89 min
Leeds 2.29 xGNewcastle 0.80 xGdots = goals · 23 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Leeds v Newcastle?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Leeds v Newcastle was Home or Draw (best price 1.42 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Newcastle?
In their last 6 meetings, Leeds won 0, Newcastle won 2 and there were 4 draws, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Leeds and Newcastle?
Recent form — Leeds 2W 2D 1L; Newcastle 3W 2D 0L.

Today’s Boards

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