This Matchweek

NewcastleHull City

Newcastle v Hull City result

Full-time · Newcastle 2–1 Hull City

Premier League · · St. James' Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Newcastle · Hull City

The model’s pre-match pick

Newcastle 2–1 Hull City — Newcastle won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
Best price: 2.35 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 54.9% of 144 landed (95% range 46.7–62.8%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Hull City: 1.16 to 1.38 in expected goals, 0.76 of Newcastle’s from a penalty, from 21 shots to 12, ahead on xG from the 66th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The result went the other way.

The result

Newcastle beat Hull City 2–1 at St. James' Park in the Premier League on Saturday 19 September. Newcastle have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Newcastle led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Newcastle: Joseph Willock (3’, assisted by Harvey Barnes) and Lewis Hall (7’, assisted by Harvey Barnes); Hull City: Mohamed-Ali Cho (67’, assisted by Mohamed Belloumi).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Joseph Willock’s goal on 3 minutes.

Discipline

Tony Harrington, England showed five yellow cards — against 3.3 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Newcastle: Jacob Murphy (45+3’); Hull City: Matt Crooks (29’), Mohamed Belloumi (39’), Konstantinos Tzolakis (45+2’) and Ryan Giles (49’).

What it changes

Newcastle move up from 12th to eighth (five league matches played). Newcastle have scored 12 goals, the eighth-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Newcastle have conceded 15 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Hull City move down from third to seventh (five league matches played). Hull City have scored 11 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Hull City have conceded 10 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Hull City are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Mohamed Belloumi (Hull City) 8.7, Harvey Barnes (Newcastle) 8.2 and Lewis Hall (Newcastle) 8.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Newcastle next travel to Fulham on 7 November 2026.

Hull City next travel to Arsenal on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Newcastle: Fulham v Newcastle, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Hull City: Arsenal v Hull City, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Newcastle 2–1 Hull City · Premier League
  • Venue: St. James' Park · Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Referee: Tony Harrington, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: Newcastle 3W 1D 1L · Hull City 1W 3D 1L

Newcastle 2–1 Hull City (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 3 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 1.13
Goals
against 1.63 / 0.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
6.75 / 4.43
Corners
against 4.13 / 6 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.38 / 3.57
Shots on target
against 5.38 / 3.43 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.25 / 3
Cards
against 2.25 / 0.71 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 14 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 14 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameNewcastle for / againstLineHull City for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.63 against n 8
3our book
1.13 for · 0.5 against n 8
Corners won
6.75 for · 4.13 against n 8
9.5standard
4.43 for · 6 against n 7
Shots
12.75 for · 16.63 against n 8
19.5standard
9.86 for · 13.29 against n 7
Shots on target
4.38 for · 5.38 against n 8
8.5standard
3.57 for · 3.43 against n 7
Fouls committed
12.13 for · 13.38 against n 8
21.5standard
10.29 for · 7.43 against n 7
Cards shown
2.25 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
3 for · 0.71 against n 7

Referee: Tony Harrington, England.

Newcastle

Newcastle Goalkeeper

Newcastle — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
L. Horníček590450 min193.8 /9081.6 /9000 /90
E. Jaouen19090 min11 /9022 /9000 /90
Newcastle — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
L. Horníček n 590
3.85/5

Newcastle Defensive

Newcastle — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
S. Botman690540 min40.7 /9030.5 /9081.3 /90355.8 /9020.3 /9010.2 /90
Lewis Hall690539 min172.8 /9071.2 /9071.2 /90427 /9061 /9000 /90
A. Dedić677463 min112.1 /9020.4 /9030.6 /90254.9 /90101.9 /9000 /90
M. Thiaw590450 min00 /9030.6 /90102 /90214.2 /9051 /9000 /90
T. Livramento23977 min22.3 /9011.2 /9000 /9033.5 /9011.2 /9011.2 /90
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Newcastle — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. Botman n 890
0.54/0
0.84/2
L. Herrington
Lewis Hall n 889.9
0.94/2
1.15/3
L. Coyle
H. Barnes n 876.8
0.74/1
1.65/3
—
A. Dedić n 677.2
1.94/4
14/1
—
Y. Wissa n 860.8
1.73/3
2.65/4
—
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Newcastle — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
S. Botman n 890
0.95/2
Lewis Hall n 889.9
2.58/6
H. Barnes n 876.8
0.73/2
A. Dedić n 677.2
2.15/4
Y. Wissa n 860.8
1.13/1
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Newcastle Attacking

Newcastle — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Y. Wissa674443 min10.2 /9010.2 /90102 /9020.4 /9051 /9051 /90
M. Fernandez-Pardo336109 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9010.8 /9010.8 /90
N. Woltemade255109 min00 /9010.8 /9010.8 /9000 /9021.7 /9021.7 /90
B. Touré23978 min22.3 /9000 /9033.5 /9033.5 /9011.2 /9022.3 /90
W. Osula15656 min00 /9011.6 /9000 /9000 /9011.6 /9000 /90
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Newcastle — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
S. Botman n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Lewis Hall n 889.9
17/1
0.43/0
H. Barnes n 876.8
2.17/4
1.25/2
A. Dedić n 677.2
0.42/0
00/0
Y. Wissa n 860.8
1.95/3
0.42/0
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Newcastle — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Botman n 890
00/0
00/0
Lewis Hall n 889.9
00/0
0.32/0
H. Barnes n 876.8
0.42/1
0.11/0
A. Dedić n 677.2
00/0
0.62/1
Y. Wissa n 860.8
0.21/0
0.21/0
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Hull City

Hull City Goalkeeper

Hull City — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
K. Tzolakis490360 min143.5 /9020.5 /9000 /90
D. Phillips19090 min22 /9000 /9000 /90
Hull City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hull City before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
K. Tzolakis n 490
3.53/3
D. Phillips n 391.7
2.63/2

Hull City Defensive

Hull City — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Egan581405 min71.6 /9071.6 /9040.9 /90204.4 /9051.1 /9020.4 /90
L. Coyle570351 min51.3 /9020.5 /9000 /90133.3 /9041 /9010.3 /90
N. Mendy560298 min72.1 /9030.9 /9051.5 /90123.6 /9041.2 /9000 /90
L. Herrington539197 min20.9 /9020.9 /9010.5 /9073.2 /9010.5 /9000 /90
R. Giles489355 min41 /9030.8 /9000 /90112.8 /9000 /9000 /90
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Hull City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hull City before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Egan n 884.4
0.95/2
0.84/1
—
R. Slater n 881.4
1.25/3
0.43/0
—
L. Coyle n 877.5
0.74/1
14/3
Lewis Hall
N. Mendy n 559.6
1.23/1
0.62/0
—
L. Herrington n 539.4
0.51/0
00/0
S. Botman
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Hull City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hull City before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Egan n 884.4
1.77/4
R. Slater n 881.4
2.18/3
L. Coyle n 877.5
1.25/2
N. Mendy n 559.6
2.13/3
L. Herrington n 539.4
0.92/0
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Hull City Attacking

Hull City — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Oliver McBurnie488352 min00 /9010.3 /9061.5 /9030.8 /9051.3 /9041 /90
S. Thomas349147 min00 /9000 /9010.6 /9010.6 /9042.4 /9031.8 /90
M. Cho260120 min00 /9000 /9043 /9010.8 /9010.8 /9000 /90
L. Millar22550 min11.8 /9000 /9035.4 /9011.8 /9000 /9000 /90
J. Gelhardt13131 min00 /9000 /9012.9 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
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Hull City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hull City before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Egan n 884.4
0.82/2
00/0
R. Slater n 881.4
0.63/1
0.32/0
L. Coyle n 877.5
0.32/0
00/0
N. Mendy n 559.6
1.54/1
0.93/0
L. Herrington n 539.4
00/0
00/0
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Hull City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hull City before kick-off, to 14 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Egan n 884.4
00/0
00/0
R. Slater n 881.4
00/0
0.11/0
L. Coyle n 877.5
00/0
00/0
N. Mendy n 559.6
0.31/0
00/0
L. Herrington n 539.4
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
NewcastleHull City
56%Possession44%
1.44Expected goals (xG)1.59
12Shots22
5Shots on target4
5Shots off target7
2Blocked shots11
9Shots inside the box12
4Corners7
2Offsides1
4Fouls10
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
3Saves3
523Passes382
88%Pass accuracy79%

Newcastle Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Murphy90002012Y7.3
M. Thiaw9000000007.3
S. Botman9000110107.2
Lewis Hall9010212107.7
L. Miley9000001406.9
H. Barnes9002213007.3
Y. Wissa9000210006
L. Horníček9000000007
J. Willock8710110108
M. Fernandez-Pardo7400000106.2
Sean Steur6600002207.2
F. Schär sub2400001007
B. Touré sub1600000006.3
A. Bamba sub1000000106.9

Hull City Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Oliver McBurnie9000101006.6
R. Giles90000021Y6.3
L. Herrington9000002106.7
S. Ajayi9000100206.3
L. Coyle9000000105.9
K. Tzolakis90000001Y6.9
M. Belloumi83014226Y7.2
R. Slater7800002006.2
J. Egan7800110206.5
S. Thomas6300101105.7
M. Crooks45000012Y6.9
T. Iroegbunam sub4500101206.9
M. Cho sub2710112007.9
J. Gelhardt sub1400100006.9
L. Gourna-Douath sub1200001106.5
R. Vaz sub1200001006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Newcastle v Hull City — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
NewcastleWWDWL
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Hull CityDWDLD
Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 0.8 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
League standing · 2026/27
Newcastle#13 pos11 pts9 pl-3 GD
Hull City#11 pos11 pts9 pl+1 GD
Goals per game
Newcastle scored1.33
Hull City scored1.22
Newcastle conceded1.67
Hull City conceded1.11

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Newcastle 1.38 xG from 12 shots, Hull City 1.16 from 21. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Yoane Wissa 46' · 0.76 xGMohamed Belloumi 15' · 0.28 xGLewis Hall 32' · 0.12 xGOliver McBurnie 80' · 0.12 xGSorba Thomas 22' · 0.09 xGTim Iroegbunam 81' · 0.08 xGRegan Slater 71' · 0.08 xGOliver McBurnie 62' · 0.06 xGOliver McBurnie 84' · 0.05 xGMatias Fernandez-Pardo 54' · 0.05 xGJoe Willock 2' · 0.05 xGMohamed Belloumi 52' · 0.04 xGHarvey Barnes 83' · 0.04 xGHarvey Barnes 63' · 0.04 xGMohamed Belloumi 79' · 0.04 xGJoe Gelhardt 83' · 0.04 xGMohamed Belloumi 58' · 0.04 xGSven Botman 51' · 0.03 xGJoe Gelhardt 90' · 0.03 xGJacob Murphy 5' · 0.02 xGMohamed Belloumi 72' · 0.02 xGJoe Gelhardt 90' · 0.02 xGSorba Thomas 47' · 0.02 xGTim Iroegbunam 94' · 0.02 xGYoane Wissa 89' · 0.02 xGLucas Herrington 78' · 0.01 xGJacob Murphy 29' · 0.01 xGSemi Ajayi 80' · 0.01 xGLucas Gourna Douath 89' · 0.01 xGJohn Egan 45' · 0.01 xGJoe Willock 2' · 0.11 xG · goalLewis Hall 6' · 0.10 xG · goalMohamed Ali-Cho 66' · 0.09 xG · goal
Newcastle (attacking right)Hull City (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Newcastle1221.38
Hull City2111.16

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Newcastle 0.42, Hull City 0.37. At full time, xG was level: Newcastle 1.38, Hull City 1.16, including 0.76 from a penalty. The widest gap was 0.83 xG to Newcastle, in the 51st minute (level on open-play xG).

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.40.700′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Newcastle 2 minGoal - Newcastle 6 minGoal - Hull City 66 min
Newcastle 1.38 xGHull City 1.16 xGdots = goals · 33 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Newcastle v Hull City?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Newcastle v Hull City was Under 2.5 goals (best price 2.35 at Betano).
What is the recent form of Newcastle and Hull City?
Recent form — Newcastle 3W 1D 1L; Hull City 1W 3D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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