Nottingham ForestAston Villa

Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa result

Full-time · Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa

Premier League · · Wembley Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Nottingham Forest · Aston Villa · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa — this Premier League match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick
Home or Draw
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.5% of 1761 landed (95% range 74.5–78.5%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,096 of 1,456 times (75.3%), against an average rating of 70.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Aston Villa: 1.36 to 0.86 in expected goals, from 12 shots to 16, ahead on xG from the 78th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The points were shared.

The result

Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa drew 1–1 at Wembley Stadium in the Premier League on Sunday 12 April. Aston Villa have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals TACTIX’s match events name — Nottingham Forest: an own goal by Murillo (23’) and Neco Williams (38’, assisted by Callum Hudson-Odoi).

Discipline

M. Salisbury showed four yellow cards — against 4.6 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Nottingham Forest: O. Hutchinson (45’) and Murillo (63’); Aston Villa: Matthew Cash (11’) and John McGinn (67’).

What it changes

Nottingham Forest stay 16th after this result (32 league matches played). Nottingham Forest have scored 44 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 35 games, ranked per game). Nottingham Forest have conceded 46 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Aston Villa stay fourth after this result (32 league matches played). Aston Villa have scored 48 goals, the 10th-most of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 35 games, ranked per game). Aston Villa have conceded 44 goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions. Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Neco Williams (Nottingham Forest) 8.5, O. Aina (Nottingham Forest) 5.1 and Youri Tielemans (Aston Villa) 5.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Nottingham Forest or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 76.5% of the time in the last 90 days (1348 of 1761).

Next up

Nottingham Forest next travel to Bournemouth on 21 November 2026.

Aston Villa next travel to Manchester United on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Nottingham Forest: Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Aston Villa: Manchester United v Aston Villa, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa · Premier League
  • Venue: Wembley Stadium · London
  • Referee: M. Salisbury
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Nottingham Forest 2 · draws 0 · Aston Villa 4 · 3.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: Nottingham Forest 2W 2D 1L · Aston Villa 4W 0D 1L

Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 1.38
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.86 / 4.63
Corners
against 5.29 / 4.25 · 1 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.14 / 3.75
Shots on target
against 4.57 / 3.88 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.57 / 1.63
Cards
against 1.14 / 2 · 1 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
4.64 yellows
Referee · M. Salisbury
23.18 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 11 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 9 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 9 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameNottingham Forest for / againstLineAston Villa for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5standard
1.38 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
3.86 for · 5.29 against n 7
9.5standard
4.63 for · 4.25 against n 8
Shots
11.71 for · 12.43 against n 7
19.5standard
12 for · 12.13 against n 8
Shots on target
4.14 for · 4.57 against n 7
8.5standard
3.75 for · 3.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.29 for · 10 against n 7
21.5standard
10.25 for · 11.75 against n 8
Cards shown
1.57 for · 1.14 against n 7
3.5standard
1.63 for · 2 against n 8

Referee: M. Salisbury — 4.64 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 23.18 fouls over 11 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

Create free account Try Pro for £1.00 then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest Goalkeeper

Nottingham Forest — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Sels29882565 min732.6 /90381.3 /9000 /90
John989798 min121.4 /90121.4 /9000 /90
S. Ortega690540 min203.3 /9071.2 /9000 /90
Nottingham Forest — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 9 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Sels n 884.4
2.14/3
John n 888.5
1.43/1

Nottingham Forest Defensive

Nottingham Forest — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
N. Milenković42873644 min310.8 /90300.7 /90340.8 /901503.7 /90250.6 /9060.1 /90
N. Williams41813337 min1042.8 /90421.1 /90170.5 /902306.2 /90310.8 /9060.2 /90
Murillo31822532 min421.5 /90381.4 /90271 /90933.3 /90301.1 /9050.2 /90
Morato22831833 min432.1 /90170.8 /90100.5 /90944.6 /90140.7 /9060.3 /90
O. Aina20821631 min291.6 /90321.8 /9030.2 /90814.5 /90150.8 /9030.2 /90
See more players · Pro

Try Pro for £1, then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Nottingham Forest — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 9 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
N. Milenković n 883.3
0.31/1
0.11/0
M. Cash
Morgan Gibbs-White n 881
15/2
1.16/2
M. Rogers
N. Williams n 872.4
0.84/1
0.32/0
M. Cash
E. Anderson n 885.1
1.37/2
1.36/4
—
C. Hudson-Odoi n 862.5
0.53/0
1.45/3
M. Rogers
See more players · Pro
Nottingham Forest — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 9 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
N. Milenković n 883.3
0.74/1
Morgan Gibbs-White n 881
0.64/0
N. Williams n 872.4
2.35/4
E. Anderson n 885.1
2.97/5
C. Hudson-Odoi n 862.5
0.94/1
See more players · Pro

Nottingham Forest Attacking

Nottingham Forest — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Igor Jesus38632382 min110.4 /9040.2 /90471.8 /90261 /90130.5 /90100.4 /90
D. Bakwa1248572 min00 /9010.2 /9081.3 /9030.5 /9091.4 /9081.3 /90
C. Wood1060604 min30.4 /9000 /90182.7 /9071 /9040.6 /9010.1 /90
A. Kalimuendo846369 min20.5 /9000 /9061.5 /9030.7 /9020.5 /9030.7 /90
T. Awoniyi829235 min20.8 /9000 /9083.1 /9051.9 /9020.8 /9020.8 /90
See more players · Pro
Nottingham Forest — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 9 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. Milenković n 883.3
0.42/1
00/0
Morgan Gibbs-White n 881
1.86/4
1.35/3
N. Williams n 872.4
0.63/1
0.31/1
E. Anderson n 885.1
1.57/4
0.42/1
C. Hudson-Odoi n 862.5
1.44/2
0.53/0
See more players · Pro
Nottingham Forest — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 9 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
N. Milenković n 883.3
00/0
00/0
Morgan Gibbs-White n 881
0.64/0
0.11/0
N. Williams n 872.4
00/0
0.31/1
E. Anderson n 885.1
0.11/0
0.11/0
C. Hudson-Odoi n 862.5
0.21/0
0.42/0
See more players · Pro

Aston Villa

Aston Villa Goalkeeper

Aston Villa — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
E. Martínez35873061 min952.8 /90381.1 /9010 /90
M. Bizot1182901 min434.3 /90101 /9000 /90
Aston Villa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 9 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
E. Martínez n 890
2.56/6
M. Bizot n 878.9
4.66/6

Aston Villa Defensive

Aston Villa — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
E. Konsa39863360 min260.7 /90280.8 /90330.9 /901153.1 /90170.5 /9010 /90
M. Cash37812996 min631.9 /90250.8 /90120.4 /901394.2 /90451.4 /9090.3 /90
L. Digne32662114 min391.7 /90130.6 /9040.2 /90923.9 /90220.9 /9060.3 /90
Pau Torres27832233 min251 /90150.6 /90241 /90743 /90100.4 /9000 /90
I. Maatsen27681829 min472.3 /90140.7 /9020.1 /901085.3 /90130.6 /9030.1 /90
See more players · Pro
Aston Villa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 9 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Rogers n 887.3
1.46/3
1.37/2
C. Hudson-Odoi
O. Watkins n 874.4
1.77/3
1.87/4
—
E. Konsa n 890
0.31/1
0.94/2
—
E. Buendía n 863.3
2.76/4
2.36/4
—
M. Cash n 874.8
28/3
0.84/1
N. Williams
See more players · Pro
Aston Villa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 9 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Rogers n 887.3
0.42/1
O. Watkins n 874.4
0.95/1
E. Konsa n 890
0.63/2
E. Buendía n 863.3
2.76/6
M. Cash n 874.8
2.66/5
See more players · Pro

Aston Villa Attacking

Aston Villa — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
O. Watkins43682933 min120.4 /9020.1 /90561.7 /90371.1 /90230.7 /90250.8 /90
D. Malen22461001 min50.4 /9020.2 /90282.5 /90141.3 /9080.7 /90161.4 /90
T. Abraham839310 min20.6 /9000 /9041.2 /9030.9 /9061.7 /9000 /90
Alysson Edward22243 min00 /9000 /9012.1 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
M. Rogers44833668 min100.2 /9070.2 /90651.6 /90370.9 /90621.5 /90551.3 /90
See more players · Pro
Aston Villa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 9 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Rogers n 887.3
1.97/5
0.94/2
O. Watkins n 874.4
1.55/4
1.25/3
E. Konsa n 890
0.63/2
0.11/0
E. Buendía n 863.3
1.24/2
00/0
M. Cash n 874.8
1.24/2
0.32/0
See more players · Pro
Aston Villa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 9 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Rogers n 887.3
00/0
00/0
O. Watkins n 874.4
0.63/1
0.21/0
E. Konsa n 890
0.11/0
00/0
E. Buendía n 863.3
00/0
0.42/0
M. Cash n 874.8
00/0
00/0
See more players · Pro

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Nottingham ForestAston Villa
41%Possession59%
1.15Expected goals (xG)1.02
15Shots12
4Shots on target5
6Shots off target7
5Blocked shots1
9Shots inside the box8
7Corners3
1Offsides2
15Fouls10
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
5Saves4
336Passes501
83%Pass accuracy88%

Nottingham Forest Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Sels9000000007.5
N. Milenković9000000306.9
Murillo90001000Y5.9
N. Williams9010332308.2
I. Sangaré9000002406.6
E. Anderson9000100106.9
C. Hudson-Odoi9001005107.7
O. Aina8900002307.6
Igor Jesus8900201006.5
Morgan Gibbs-White8400210006.3
O. Hutchinson65000000Y6.3
C. Wood sub2500100006.5
N. Domínguez sub1100000006.3
D. Ndoye sub10000000–
R. Yates sub10000000–

Aston Villa Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Bizot9000000006.2
V. Lindelöf9000200106.5
Pau Torres9000000106.9
A. Onana9000111207
Y. Tielemans9000102307.5
J. McGinn90002110Y7.2
M. Cash89001100Y6.5
O. Watkins8700101106
L. Digne7800002406.7
M. Rogers7800201206.3
R. Barkley7700110107
Douglas Luiz sub1300000006.9
E. Buendía sub1200002006.3
I. Maatsen sub1200110006.9
T. Abraham sub800000006.5
Andrés García sub10000000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Nottingham ForestLDWWD
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
Aston VillaWLWWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 1.8 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Nottingham Forest 2 · 0 draws · Aston Villa 4 · 3.33 goals/game
  • 2026-01-03 Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham Forest
  • 2025-04-05 Aston Villa 2–1 Nottingham Forest
  • 2024-12-14 Nottingham Forest 2–1 Aston Villa
  • 2024-02-24 Aston Villa 4–2 Nottingham Forest
  • 2023-11-05 Nottingham Forest 2–0 Aston Villa
  • 2023-04-08 Aston Villa 2–0 Nottingham Forest
League standing · 2025/26
Nottingham Forest#16 pos44 pts38 pl-3 GD
Aston Villa#4 pos65 pts38 pl+7 GD
Goals per game
Nottingham Forest scored1.26
Aston Villa scored1.47
Nottingham Forest conceded1.34
Aston Villa conceded1.29

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Nottingham Forest 0.86 xG from 16 shots, Aston Villa 1.36 from 12. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Morgan Rogers 65' · 0.46 xGOllie Watkins 78' · 0.33 xGIan Maatsen 84' · 0.19 xGChris Wood 73' · 0.13 xGMurillo 42' · 0.12 xGMorgan Gibbs-White 61' · 0.11 xGCallum Hudson-Odoi 76' · 0.09 xGMorgan Rogers 35' · 0.09 xGIgor Jesus 48' · 0.08 xGVictor Lindelöf 85' · 0.07 xGVictor Lindelöf 19' · 0.07 xGMorgan Gibbs-White 6' · 0.06 xGCallum Hudson-Odoi 69' · 0.06 xGMorgan Gibbs-White 43' · 0.04 xGJohn McGinn 63' · 0.04 xGIgor Jesus 52' · 0.04 xGNeco Williams 73' · 0.04 xGJohn McGinn 4' · 0.03 xGRoss Barkley 65' · 0.03 xGElliot Anderson 66' · 0.02 xGNeco Williams 41' · 0.02 xGAmadou Onana 60' · 0.02 xGMatthew Cash 85' · 0.02 xGElliot Anderson 39' · 0.02 xGYouri Tielemans 49' · 0.01 xGNeco Williams 7' · 0.01 xGMurillo 22' · 0.00 xGNeco Williams 37' · 0.02 xG · goal
Nottingham Forest (attacking right)Aston Villa (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Nottingham Forest1610.86
Aston Villa1201.36

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Nottingham Forest 0.29, Aston Villa 0.19. At full time, Aston Villa led on xG, 1.36 to 0.86. The widest gap was 0.50 xG to Aston Villa, in the 85th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.40.700′15′30′45′60′75′90′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Nottingham Forest 37 min
Nottingham Forest 0.86 xGAston Villa 1.36 xGdots = goals · 28 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

Try Pro for £1

then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa was Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa?
In their last 6 meetings, Nottingham Forest won 2, Aston Villa won 4 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa?
Recent form — Nottingham Forest 2W 2D 1L; Aston Villa 4W 0D 1L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
Share this prediction: X · Facebook · WhatsApp · Telegram

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

Unlock all 246 predictions, advanced stats & the model v the market with ProTry Pro for £1 then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+