Nottingham ForestBurnley

Nottingham Forest v Burnley result

Full-time · Nottingham Forest 4–1 Burnley

Premier League · · Wembley Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Nottingham Forest · Burnley

The model’s pre-match pick

Nottingham Forest 4–1 Burnley — Nottingham Forest won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 1.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 1.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 1.5 goals in the last 90 days, 81% of 5367 landed (95% range 79.9–82%); it had given them 80% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 1.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 974 of 1,285 times (75.8%), against an average rating of 73.5%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Nottingham Forest: 1.45 to 0.60 in expected goals, from 10 shots to 4, ahead on xG from the 62nd minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Nottingham Forest beat Burnley 4–1 at Wembley Stadium in the Premier League on Sunday 19 April. Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions. Burnley are winless in their last eight matches in all competitions.

The goals

Nottingham Forest came from behind: Burnley led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Burnley: Zian Flemming (45’, assisted by Quilindschy Hartman); Nottingham Forest: Morgan Gibbs-White (62’; 69’, assisted by O. Hutchinson; 77’, assisted by Ryan Yates) and Igor Jesus (90’, assisted by Nicolás Domínguez).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Morgan Gibbs-White’s goal on 69 minutes.

Discipline

T. Kirk showed two yellow cards — against 3.7 yellows a game across the last 7 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Burnley: Florentino (75’) and Kyle Walker (80’).

What it changes

Nottingham Forest stay 16th after this result (33 league matches played). Nottingham Forest have scored 44 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 35 games, ranked per game). Nottingham Forest have conceded 46 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Burnley stay 19th after this result (33 league matches played). Burnley have scored 35 goals, the second-fewest of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 35 games, ranked per game). Burnley have conceded 71 goals, the most of the 20 clubs.

Nottingham Forest have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Morgan Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest) 13.4, Quilindschy Hartman (Burnley) 7.2 and Igor Jesus (Nottingham Forest) 6.5 led the match.

Head-to-head

Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Burnley.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 1.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 81% of the time in the last 90 days (4348 of 5367).

Next up

Nottingham Forest next travel to Bournemouth on 21 November 2026.

Burnley next host Blackburn on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Nottingham Forest: Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Burnley: Burnley v Blackburn, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Nottingham Forest 4–1 Burnley · Premier League
  • Venue: Wembley Stadium · London
  • Referee: T. Kirk
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 4): Nottingham Forest 1 · draws 2 · Burnley 1 · 2 goals/game
  • Recent form: Nottingham Forest 3W 2D 0L · Burnley 0W 1D 4L

Nottingham Forest 4–1 Burnley (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 1.13
Goals
against 0.75 / 2 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.71 / 5.25
Corners
against 4.86 / 6 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.29 / 3.5
Shots on target
against 3.86 / 4.38 · 3 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.71 / 2
Cards
against 1.57 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
3.71 yellows
Referee · T. Kirk
24.29 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 16 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameNottingham Forest for / againstLineBurnley for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 0.75 against n 8
2.5standard
1.13 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
4.71 for · 4.86 against n 7
9.5standard
5.25 for · 6 against n 8
Shots
13 for · 12 against n 7
19.5standard
11.63 for · 16 against n 8
Shots on target
4.29 for · 3.86 against n 7
8.5standard
3.5 for · 4.38 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.14 for · 10.14 against n 7
21.5standard
10.13 for · 9.75 against n 8
Cards shown
1.71 for · 1.57 against n 7
3.5standard
2 for · 1.75 against n 8

Referee: T. Kirk — 3.71 yellow cards a game, 0.43 red cards, 24.29 fouls over 7 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest Goalkeeper

Nottingham Forest — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Sels30892655 min782.6 /90391.3 /9000 /90
John989798 min121.4 /90121.4 /9000 /90
S. Ortega790630 min213 /9071 /9000 /90
Nottingham Forest — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 16 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Sels n 884.4
2.75/4
John n 888.5
1.43/1

Nottingham Forest Defensive

Nottingham Forest — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
N. Milenković44853759 min340.8 /90300.7 /90340.8 /901553.7 /90270.6 /9060.1 /90
N. Williams43823517 min1112.8 /90451.2 /90170.4 /902456.3 /90330.8 /9060.2 /90
Murillo33822694 min421.4 /90421.4 /90270.9 /90943.1 /90341.1 /9060.2 /90
Morato23801851 min432.1 /90170.8 /90100.5 /90944.6 /90140.7 /9060.3 /90
O. Aina22821810 min341.7 /90361.8 /9030.1 /90954.7 /90160.8 /9030.1 /90
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Nottingham Forest — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 16 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
N. Milenković n 875.1
0.32/0
0.11/0
M. Estève
Morgan Gibbs-White n 883.3
0.85/1
1.16/2
J. Anthony
N. Williams n 872.4
1.16/1
0.84/1
K. Walker
E. Anderson n 888
1.47/3
1.47/4
—
C. Hudson-Odoi n 858.5
0.63/0
1.35/2
—
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Nottingham Forest — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 16 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
N. Milenković n 875.1
1.25/2
Morgan Gibbs-White n 883.3
0.43/0
N. Williams n 872.4
2.36/5
E. Anderson n 888
2.87/5
C. Hudson-Odoi n 858.5
14/1
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Nottingham Forest Attacking

Nottingham Forest — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Igor Jesus40642545 min110.4 /9040.1 /90531.9 /90291 /90160.6 /90100.4 /90
D. Bakwa1345590 min00 /9010.2 /9081.2 /9030.5 /90111.7 /9081.2 /90
C. Wood1254645 min30.4 /9000 /90192.7 /9071 /9040.6 /9010.1 /90
A. Kalimuendo846369 min20.5 /9000 /9061.5 /9030.7 /9020.5 /9030.7 /90
T. Awoniyi829235 min20.8 /9000 /9083.1 /9051.9 /9020.8 /9020.8 /90
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Nottingham Forest — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 16 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. Milenković n 875.1
00/0
00/0
Morgan Gibbs-White n 883.3
1.87/5
1.16/2
N. Williams n 872.4
0.82/2
0.82/2
E. Anderson n 888
1.47/4
0.42/1
C. Hudson-Odoi n 858.5
0.83/1
0.21/0
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Nottingham Forest — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 16 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
N. Milenković n 875.1
00/0
00/0
Morgan Gibbs-White n 883.3
0.54/0
00/0
N. Williams n 872.4
0.21/0
0.52/1
E. Anderson n 888
0.11/0
00/0
C. Hudson-Odoi n 858.5
0.21/0
0.63/0
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Burnley

Burnley Goalkeeper

Burnley — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Dúbravka32902880 min1143.6 /90632 /9000 /90
M. Weiß490360 min92.3 /9061.5 /9000 /90
Burnley — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 16 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Dúbravka n 890
2.16/3

Burnley Defensive

Burnley — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Estève31862675 min341.1 /90371.2 /90250.8 /901264.2 /90130.4 /9010 /90
K. Walker29882549 min431.5 /90381.3 /90100.4 /901134 /90271 /9080.3 /90
Q. Hartman20881765 min412.1 /90281.4 /9040.2 /90583 /90100.5 /9010.1 /90
B. Humphreys17861455 min271.7 /9080.5 /90171.1 /90674.1 /90130.8 /9050.3 /90
H. Ekdal17851448 min241.5 /90100.6 /90110.7 /90774.8 /9080.5 /9010.1 /90
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Burnley — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 16 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Dúbravka n 890
00/0
0.54/0
—
M. Estève n 888
0.43/0
0.42/1
N. Milenković
L. Ugochukwu n 872.5
0.95/1
0.52/1
—
J. Anthony n 886.3
0.53/1
0.95/2
Morgan Gibbs-White
K. Walker n 884
0.31/1
0.73/2
N. Williams
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Burnley — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 16 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Estève n 888
15/3
L. Ugochukwu n 872.5
1.46/2
J. Anthony n 886.3
1.36/4
K. Walker n 884
1.23/3
J. Laurent n 868
1.55/2
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Burnley Attacking

Burnley — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
J. Bruun Larsen23481101 min00 /9030.2 /90121 /9050.4 /90161.3 /90131.1 /90
L. Foster22621370 min20.1 /9030.2 /90110.7 /9050.3 /90110.7 /90100.7 /90
L. Tchaouna22491068 min20.2 /9000 /90171.4 /9080.7 /9060.5 /9060.5 /90
Z. Flemming21681438 min80.5 /9000 /90322 /90201.3 /9080.5 /9050.3 /90
Marcus Edwards17661126 min10.1 /9030.2 /90131 /9060.5 /90211.7 /90181.4 /90
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Burnley — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 16 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Dúbravka n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Estève n 888
0.32/0
00/0
L. Ugochukwu n 872.5
0.53/0
0.21/0
J. Anthony n 886.3
2.38/6
17/1
K. Walker n 884
00/0
00/0
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Burnley — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 16 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Dúbravka n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Estève n 888
00/0
00/0
L. Ugochukwu n 872.5
00/0
0.21/0
J. Anthony n 886.3
0.32/0
00/0
K. Walker n 884
00/0
0.11/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Nottingham ForestBurnley
51%Possession49%
1.19Expected goals (xG)0.36
10Shots4
4Shots on target3
4Shots off target0
2Blocked shots1
8Shots inside the box3
4Corners4
2Offsides0
8Fouls12
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
2Saves1
474Passes453
82%Pass accuracy82%

Nottingham Forest Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Sels9000000006.6
O. Aina9000000106.7
N. Milenković9000000005.9
N. Williams9000101307.5
I. Sangaré9000001207.3
E. Anderson9000000307.3
Morgan Gibbs-White89305302010
O. Hutchinson8801001106.9
C. Wood7600101006.5
D. Bakwa4500001106.5
Murillo4200000307.2
Jair sub4800000006.6
Igor Jesus sub4510110307.9
R. Yates sub1401001006.9
Morato sub1100000006.6
N. Domínguez sub1001001307.2

Burnley Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Dúbravka9000000005.3
K. Walker90000001Y6
H. Ekdal9000000005.9
M. Estève9000000406
Q. Hartman9001001406.5
J. Ward-Prowse9000111006.2
Z. Flemming8410110107.3
Florentino83000005Y6
J. Anthony8300001006.2
L. Ugochukwu7600000106.2
Marcus Edwards6400000306.7
L. Foster sub2600110106
J. Laurent sub1600000206.7
L. Tchaouna sub1600000006.5
A. Broja sub1500000006.5
J. Bruun Larsen sub1400000006.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Nottingham Forest v Burnley — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Nottingham ForestWWDDW
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 1.6 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
BurnleyLLDLL
Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.8 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 4
Nottingham Forest 1 · 2 draws · Burnley 1 · 2 goals/game
  • 2025-09-20 Burnley 1–1 Nottingham Forest
  • 2024-05-19 Burnley 1–2 Nottingham Forest
  • 2023-09-18 Nottingham Forest 1–1 Burnley
  • 2023-08-30 Nottingham Forest 0–1 Burnley
League standing · 2025/26
Nottingham Forest#16 pos44 pts38 pl-3 GD
Burnley#19 pos22 pts38 pl-37 GD
Goals per game
Nottingham Forest scored1.26
Burnley scored1
Nottingham Forest conceded1.34
Burnley conceded1.97

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Nottingham Forest 1.45 xG from 10 shots, Burnley 0.60 from 4. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Chris Wood 34' · 0.12 xGMorgan Gibbs-White 44' · 0.09 xGLyle Foster 64' · 0.08 xGMorgan Gibbs-White 52' · 0.08 xGIgor Jesus 52' · 0.05 xGNeco Williams 86' · 0.05 xGNeco Williams 33' · 0.05 xGMaxime Estève 82' · 0.04 xGJames Ward-Prowse 24' · 0.03 xGIgor Jesus 97' · 0.50 xG · goalZian Flemming 46' · 0.45 xG · goalMorgan Gibbs-White 62' · 0.40 xG · goalMorgan Gibbs-White 68' · 0.06 xG · goalMorgan Gibbs-White 76' · 0.05 xG · goal
Nottingham Forest (attacking right)Burnley (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Nottingham Forest1041.45
Burnley410.60

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Nottingham Forest 0.26, Burnley 0.03. At full time, Nottingham Forest led on xG, 1.45 to 0.60. The widest gap was 0.85 xG to Nottingham Forest, in the 97th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.40.700′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Burnley 46 minGoal - Nottingham Forest 62 minGoal - Nottingham Forest 68 minGoal - Nottingham Forest 76 minGoal - Nottingham Forest 97 min
Nottingham Forest 1.45 xGBurnley 0.60 xGdots = goals · 14 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Nottingham Forest v Burnley?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Nottingham Forest v Burnley was Over 1.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Burnley?
In their last 4 meetings, Nottingham Forest won 1, Burnley won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Nottingham Forest and Burnley?
Recent form — Nottingham Forest 3W 2D 0L; Burnley 0W 1D 4L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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