Nottingham Forest v Leeds result

Full-time · Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds

Premier League · Sat, 22 Aug 2026 15:00 BST · City Ground

Updated 5 Sep 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Nottingham Forest · Leeds · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds — Leeds won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 2.10 at Betfair

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.2% of 549 landed (95% range 63.2–71%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 543 of 844 times (64.3%), against an average rating of 67.7%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said little between the sides: Nottingham Forest 0.66, Leeds 0.47 in expected goals (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Leeds won 1–0 at City Ground in the Premier League on Saturday 22 August. Nottingham Forest are winless in their last five matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Leeds: Anton Stach (88’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Anton Stach’s goal on 88 minutes.

Discipline

R. Jones showed three yellow cards — against 4.8 yellows a game across the last 13 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Nottingham Forest: O. Aina (18’) and Jair (52’); Leeds: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (32’).

What it changes

Nottingham Forest are 17th after this result (one league match played). Nottingham Forest have scored six goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Nottingham Forest have conceded 12 goals, the 10th-most of the 20 clubs.

Leeds are fifth after this result (one league match played). Leeds have scored nine goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Leeds have conceded eight goals, the third-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Anton Stach (Leeds) 9.0, James Justin (Leeds) 6.3 and Ethan Ampadu (Leeds) 4.5 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Nottingham Forest next host Manchester City on 7 November 2026.

Leeds next host Tottenham on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest v Manchester City, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Leeds: Leeds v Tottenham, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds · Premier League
Venue: City Ground · Nottingham
Referee: R. Jones
Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Nottingham Forest 3 · draws 1 · Leeds 2 · 2.67 goals/game
Recent form: Nottingham Forest 1W 2D 2L · Leeds 2W 1D 2L

Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 5 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.13 / 1.5

Goals

against 1.38 / 1.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.13 / 4

Corners

against 5.13 / 7.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.5 / 4.25

Shots on target

against 5.5 / 5.38 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.5 / 2.13

Cards

against 1.38 / 2.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

4.85 yellows

Referee · R. Jones

23.15 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 13 matches

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 24 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 24 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Nottingham Forest for / against	Line	Leeds for / against
Goals scored	2.13 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	1.5 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.13 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4 for · 7.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	10.88 for · 16.13 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.63 for · 14 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.5 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.25 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.5 for · 11.25 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.13 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.5 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.13 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: R. Jones — 4.85 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 23.15 fouls over 13 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Nottingham Forest		Leeds
56%	Possession	44%
0.66	Expected goals (xG)	0.47
12	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	3
8	Shots off target	2
2	Blocked shots	6
6	Shots inside the box	6
3	Corners	2
3	Offsides	3
15	Fouls	14
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	3
411	Passes	326
78%	Pass accuracy	71%

Nottingham Forest Player Stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
M. Sels	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Jair	90	0	0	0	1	Y	6.3
N. Milenković	90	2	0	0	0	0	6.3
I. Sangaré	90	1	0	1	0	0	6.9
N. Williams	90	0	0	0	3	0	6.7
Morgan Gibbs-White	90	3	0	0	0	0	7
Igor Jesus	90	2	1	0	0	0	6.9
Murillo	89	0	0	2	2	0	7.2
O. Aina	74	1	1	3	0	Y	6.9
J. McAtee	74	0	0	3	1	0	7.2
D. Ndoye	62	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
C. Wood sub	28	1	0	0	0	0	6.3
L. Netz sub	16	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
X. Schlager sub	16	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
A. Kalimuendo sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	–

Leeds Player Stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
J. Trafford	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.5
J. Rodon	90	0	0	0	1	1	0	7.3
J. Bijol	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	7.5
T. Muharemović	90	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.9
J. Bogle	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
A. Stach	90	1	2	1	0	3	0	8
E. Ampadu	90	0	0	0	2	2	0	6.9
J. Justin	90	0	0	0	0	6	0	7.2
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	90	0	1	0	0	0	Y	6
B. Aaronson	82	0	1	1	0	1	0	6.6
H. Wilson	66	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.9
N. Okafor sub	24	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.6
S. Longstaff sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Nottingham Forest v Leeds — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Nottingham ForestWLDLD

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.4 scored / 2 conceded per game

LeedsLWDWL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Nottingham Forest 3 · 1 draw · Leeds 2 · 2.67 goals/game

2026-02-06 Leeds 3–1 Nottingham Forest
2025-11-09 Nottingham Forest 3–1 Leeds
2023-04-04 Leeds 2–1 Nottingham Forest
2023-02-05 Nottingham Forest 1–0 Leeds
2020-02-08 Nottingham Forest 2–0 Leeds
2019-08-10 Leeds 1–1 Nottingham Forest

League standing · 2026/27

Nottingham Forest#19 pos6 pts9 pl-6 GD

Leeds#12 pos11 pts9 pl+1 GD

Goals per game

Nottingham Forest scored0.67

Leeds scored1

Nottingham Forest conceded1.33

Leeds conceded0.89

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Nottingham Forest 0.66 xG from 12 shots, Leeds 0.47 from 11. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Nottingham Forest (attacking right)Leeds (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
Nottingham Forest	12	0	0.66
Leeds	11	1	0.47

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Nottingham Forest 0.22, Leeds 0.13. At full time, xG was level: Nottingham Forest 0.66, Leeds 0.47.

xG timeline (cumulative)

Nottingham Forest 0.66 xGLeeds 0.47 xGdots = goals · 23 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Nottingham Forest v Leeds?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Nottingham Forest v Leeds was Over 2.5 goals (best price 2.10 at Betfair).
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Leeds?: In their last 6 meetings, Nottingham Forest won 3, Leeds won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Nottingham Forest and Leeds?: Recent form — Nottingham Forest 1W 2D 2L; Leeds 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 5 Sep 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.