This Matchweek

TottenhamAston Villa

Tottenham v Aston Villa result

Full-time · Tottenham 2–3 Aston Villa

Premier League · · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Tottenham · Aston Villa · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Tottenham 2–3 Aston Villa — Aston Villa won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick
Home or Draw
Best price: 1.30 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.4% of 1736 landed (95% range 74.4–78.4%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,038 of 1,386 times (74.9%), against an average rating of 70.3%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said little between the sides: Tottenham 1.74, Aston Villa 1.76 in expected goals (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Aston Villa won 3–2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in the Premier League on Saturday 19 September. Tottenham are winless in their last five matches in all competitions.

The goals

Aston Villa led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Aston Villa: Johan Manzambi (45’, assisted by Boubacar Kamara), Nicolas Jackson (67’, assisted by Johan Manzambi) and E. Buendía (79’, assisted by John McGinn); Tottenham: Conor Gallagher (86’, assisted by Mohammed Kudus) and Jan van Hecke (90’, assisted by Andrew Robertson).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Johan Manzambi’s goal on 45 minutes.

Discipline

Samuel Barrott, England showed three yellow cards — against 3.5 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Tottenham: Jan van Hecke (45+7’); Aston Villa: Nicolas Jackson (46’) and Matthew Cash (90+2’).

What it changes

Tottenham move down from 17th to 18th (five league matches played). Tottenham have scored 10 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Tottenham have conceded 10 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Aston Villa move up from 18th to 15th (five league matches played). Aston Villa have scored 10 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Aston Villa have conceded 13 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, E. Buendía (Aston Villa) 12.9, Johan Manzambi (Aston Villa) 9.7 and Jan van Hecke (Tottenham) 7.5 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Tottenham or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 76.4% of the time in the last 90 days (1327 of 1736).

Next up

Tottenham next travel to Leeds on 7 November 2026.

Aston Villa next travel to Manchester United on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Tottenham: Leeds v Tottenham, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Aston Villa: Manchester United v Aston Villa, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Tottenham 2–3 Aston Villa · Premier League
  • Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · London
  • Referee: Samuel Barrott, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Tottenham 2 · draws 0 · Aston Villa 4 · 3.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Tottenham 1W 2D 2L · Aston Villa 2W 1D 2L

Tottenham 2–3 Aston Villa (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 3 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 1.25
Goals
against 1.38 / 1.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
7.25 / 4.25
Corners
against 5.38 / 3.5 · 5 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.25 / 4.13
Shots on target
against 3.63 / 5 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.63 / 2.25
Cards
against 2.13 / 2.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 16 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameTottenham for / againstLineAston Villa for / against
Goals scored
1 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.75our book
1.25 for · 1.63 against n 8
Corners won
7.25 for · 5.38 against n 8
9.5standard
4.25 for · 3.5 against n 8
Shots
14.63 for · 12.25 against n 8
19.5standard
12.38 for · 14.75 against n 8
Shots on target
4.25 for · 3.63 against n 8
8.5standard
4.13 for · 5 against n 8
Fouls committed
13.25 for · 13.88 against n 8
21.5standard
10.88 for · 12.13 against n 8
Cards shown
1.63 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
2.25 for · 2.13 against n 8

Referee: Samuel Barrott, England.

Tottenham

Tottenham Goalkeeper

Tottenham — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
A. Kinský590450 min122.4 /9061.2 /9000 /90
M. Dúbravka19090 min22 /9000 /9000 /90
Tottenham — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Tottenham before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Kinský n 890
2.35/4

Tottenham Defensive

Tottenham — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. van Hecke585424 min81.7 /9010.2 /9051.1 /90275.7 /9061.3 /9000 /90
A. Gray584419 min71.5 /9051.1 /9000 /90194.1 /9040.9 /9000 /90
A. Robertson562310 min30.9 /9030.9 /9030.9 /9092.6 /9000 /9000 /90
M. van de Ven474296 min51.5 /9020.6 /9000 /90175.2 /9030.9 /9010.3 /90
D. Udogie451205 min52.2 /9020.9 /9000 /90146.1 /9031.3 /9010.4 /90
See more players · Pro

Try Pro for £1, then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Tottenham — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Tottenham before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Tel n 873.1
1.14/3
1.14/2
—
R. Bentancur n 872.8
2.27/5
0.83/2
—
A. Kinský n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
J. van Hecke n 584.8
1.34/2
1.13/1
V. Lindelöf
A. Gray n 874.6
0.95/1
0.83/2
—
See more players · Pro
Tottenham — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Tottenham before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Tel n 873.1
0.32/0
R. Bentancur n 872.8
2.88/6
J. van Hecke n 584.8
1.75/3
A. Gray n 874.6
1.45/3
Mateus Fernandes n 564.2
2.55/3
See more players · Pro

Tottenham Attacking

Tottenham — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Omar Marmoush485341 min00 /9000 /9071.8 /9020.5 /9071.8 /90112.9 /90
Sávio446185 min10.5 /9010.5 /9021 /9010.5 /9073.4 /90115.4 /90
D. Solanke443171 min10.5 /9000 /9021.1 /9021.1 /9000 /9000 /90
M. Moore360180 min10.5 /9010.5 /9052.5 /9042 /9010.5 /9052.5 /90
Richarlison16868 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9011.3 /90
See more players · Pro
Tottenham — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Tottenham before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Tel n 873.1
1.44/3
0.62/1
R. Bentancur n 872.8
0.21/0
00/0
A. Kinský n 890
00/0
00/0
J. van Hecke n 584.8
0.83/1
0.21/0
A. Gray n 874.6
0.84/1
0.52/1
See more players · Pro
Tottenham — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Tottenham before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Tel n 873.1
00/0
00/0
R. Bentancur n 872.8
00/0
0.21/0
A. Kinský n 890
00/0
00/0
J. van Hecke n 584.8
00/0
00/0
A. Gray n 874.6
00/0
0.21/0
See more players · Pro

Aston Villa

Aston Villa Goalkeeper

Aston Villa — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Z. Suzuki581405 min173.8 /9040.9 /9000 /90
M. Bizot377231 min93.5 /9062.3 /9000 /90
Aston Villa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Z. Suzuki n 581
3.84/3
M. Bizot n 879.6
3.87/5

Aston Villa Defensive

Aston Villa — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
V. Lindelöf691546 min10.2 /9010.2 /9010.2 /9040.7 /9030.5 /9000 /90
I. Maatsen686516 min122.1 /90101.7 /9000 /90203.5 /9050.9 /9020.3 /90
Pau Torres572358 min41 /9010.3 /9010.3 /9082 /9030.8 /9010.3 /90
T. Mings556278 min51.6 /9020.6 /9020.6 /90154.9 /9020.6 /9010.3 /90
M. Cash487349 min82.1 /9010.3 /9020.5 /90143.6 /9051.3 /9010.3 /90
See more players · Pro
Aston Villa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. McGinn n 874.4
1.86/3
3.27/7
—
George Hemmings n 873.9
27/6
1.24/2
—
E. Buendía n 874.3
1.26/1
2.68/6
—
R. Barkley n 865
0.92/2
0.94/1
—
V. Lindelöf n 885.6
0.73/2
0.11/0
J. van Hecke
See more players · Pro
Aston Villa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. McGinn n 874.4
28/3
George Hemmings n 873.9
1.87/4
E. Buendía n 874.3
25/2
R. Barkley n 865
2.66/5
V. Lindelöf n 885.6
0.43/0
See more players · Pro

Aston Villa Attacking

Aston Villa — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
N. Jackson561303 min10.3 /9000 /9051.5 /9030.9 /9041.2 /9072.1 /90
Alysson Edward525124 min10.7 /9000 /9010.7 /9010.7 /9000 /9021.5 /90
T. Abraham439157 min21.1 /9000 /9031.7 /9021.1 /9000 /9010.6 /90
Brian Madjo17272 min11.3 /9000 /9056.3 /9011.3 /9022.5 /9000 /90
A. Garnacho11515 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9016 /90
See more players · Pro
Aston Villa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. McGinn n 874.4
1.87/3
0.84/1
George Hemmings n 873.9
0.94/2
0.53/0
E. Buendía n 874.3
2.17/5
0.52/1
R. Barkley n 865
1.45/2
0.52/1
V. Lindelöf n 885.6
0.32/0
0.11/0
See more players · Pro
Aston Villa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. McGinn n 874.4
0.21/0
0.32/0
George Hemmings n 873.9
00/0
0.21/0
E. Buendía n 874.3
0.21/0
00/0
R. Barkley n 865
0.21/0
0.32/0
V. Lindelöf n 885.6
00/0
00/0
See more players · Pro

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
TottenhamAston Villa
64%Possession36%
1.56Expected goals (xG)1.16
20Shots15
7Shots on target6
9Shots off target6
4Blocked shots3
12Shots inside the box9
11Corners1
5Offsides2
9Fouls13
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
3Saves5
581Passes336
87%Pass accuracy83%

Tottenham Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Kinský9000000005.6
Omar Marmoush9000000106.2
Sávio9000334006.7
A. Robertson9001004206.5
M. van de Ven9000100106.9
J. van Hecke90101123Y7.9
S. Tonali8400101607.6
R. Bentancur8400000607.2
D. Solanke6600101206.7
Mateus Fernandes4500200106.5
Pedro Porro1900100106.3
A. Gray sub7100110206.5
M. Kudus sub4501201207.3
J. Maddison sub2400210407
L. Bergvall sub1500000106.7
C. Gallagher sub1510110307.7

Aston Villa Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
E. Buendía9010223708.3
João Gomes9000001506.9
Matteo Ruggeri9000101006.2
T. Mings9000000107.2
V. Lindelöf9000001006.2
Z. Suzuki9000000006.9
N. Jackson88105210Y7.9
J. McGinn8401003006.7
B. Kamara8401101207
J. Manzambi7211322107.9
A. Wan-Bissaka4500000206.9
M. Cash sub45000000Y5.9
George Hemmings sub1800000006.2
R. Barkley sub1500000006.2
I. Mbaye sub1500000006.2
T. Abraham sub1100000006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Tottenham v Aston Villa — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
TottenhamWLDDL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Aston VillaLDWLW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Tottenham 2 · 0 draws · Aston Villa 4 · 3.17 goals/game
  • 2026-05-03 Aston Villa 1–2 Tottenham
  • 2026-01-10 Tottenham 1–2 Aston Villa
  • 2025-10-19 Tottenham 1–2 Aston Villa
  • 2025-05-16 Aston Villa 2–0 Tottenham
  • 2025-02-09 Aston Villa 2–1 Tottenham
  • 2024-11-03 Tottenham 4–1 Aston Villa
League standing · 2026/27
Tottenham#9 pos12 pts9 pl0 GD
Aston Villa#10 pos12 pts9 pl-3 GD
Goals per game
Tottenham scored1.11
Aston Villa scored1.11
Tottenham conceded1.11
Aston Villa conceded1.44

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Tottenham 1.74 xG from 20 shots, Aston Villa 1.76 from 15. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Nicolas Jackson 52' · 0.32 xGArchie Gray 20' · 0.26 xGSávio 10' · 0.13 xGSávio 10' · 0.10 xGJohan Manzambi 52' · 0.10 xGBoubacar Kamara 48' · 0.08 xGEmiliano Buendía 26' · 0.07 xGNicolas Jackson 52' · 0.07 xGEmiliano Buendía 87' · 0.07 xGJames Maddison 92' · 0.06 xGNicolas Jackson 27' · 0.06 xGSandro Tonali 33' · 0.06 xGMohammed Kudus 92' · 0.05 xGNicolas Jackson 57' · 0.05 xGDominic Solanke 33' · 0.05 xGMicky van de Ven 94' · 0.04 xGOmar Marmoush 74' · 0.04 xGMateus Fernandes 49' · 0.03 xGJohan Manzambi 14' · 0.03 xGJames Maddison 80' · 0.03 xGMohammed Kudus 75' · 0.03 xGNicolas Jackson 55' · 0.03 xGSandro Tonali 69' · 0.02 xGJohan Manzambi 30' · 0.02 xGMatteo Ruggeri 40' · 0.02 xGSávio 20' · 0.02 xGDominic Solanke 65' · 0.02 xGMateus Fernandes 23' · 0.02 xGSandro Tonali 32' · 0.01 xGPedro Porro 10' · 0.01 xGJohan Manzambi 48' · 0.70 xG · goalConor Gallagher 85' · 0.38 xG · goalJan Paul van Hecke 97' · 0.36 xG · goalNicolas Jackson 66' · 0.12 xG · goalEmiliano Buendía 78' · 0.02 xG · goal
Tottenham (attacking right)Aston Villa (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Tottenham2021.74
Aston Villa1531.76

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Tottenham led on xG, 0.67 to 0.21. At full time, xG was level: Tottenham 1.74, Aston Villa 1.76. The widest gap was 0.94 xG to Aston Villa, in the 66th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.80.900′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Aston Villa 48 minGoal - Aston Villa 66 minGoal - Aston Villa 78 minGoal - Tottenham 85 minGoal - Tottenham 97 min
Tottenham 1.74 xGAston Villa 1.76 xGdots = goals · 35 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

Try Pro for £1

then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Tottenham v Aston Villa?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Tottenham v Aston Villa was Home or Draw (best price 1.30 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Aston Villa?
In their last 6 meetings, Tottenham won 2, Aston Villa won 4 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Tottenham and Aston Villa?
Recent form — Tottenham 1W 2D 2L; Aston Villa 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
Share this prediction: X · Facebook · WhatsApp · Telegram

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

Unlock all 246 predictions, advanced stats & the model v the market with ProTry Pro for £1 then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+