This Matchweek

KilmarnockMotherwell

Kilmarnock v Motherwell result

Full-time · Kilmarnock 3–2 Motherwell

Premiership · · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Kilmarnock · Motherwell · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Kilmarnock 3–2 Motherwell — Kilmarnock won this Premiership match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.30 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5059 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,935 of 2,588 times (74.8%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Kilmarnock beat Motherwell 3–2 at The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park in the Premiership on Saturday 17 October. It is Kilmarnock’s first win over Motherwell since 5 April 2025, after four meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Kilmarnock: Greg Kiltie (2’; 69’, assisted by Jamie Brandon) and Tyreece John-Jules (58’, assisted by Jamie Brandon); Motherwell: Alexander Lowry (17’) and Sebastian Palmer-Houlden (56’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Greg Kiltie’s goal on 69 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Motherwell, from fewer shots (15 to 16), created the better chances, 2.44 xG to 1.51 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Context.

Discipline

C. Scott showed one yellow card — against 3.6 yellows a game across the last 14 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Kilmarnock: George Stanger (55’).

What it changes

Kilmarnock move up from 12th to 11th (nine league matches played). Kilmarnock have scored 10 goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 12 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games, ranked per game). Kilmarnock have conceded 20 goals, the most of the 12 clubs.

Motherwell move down from ninth to 10th (nine league matches played). Motherwell have scored 11 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 12 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games, ranked per game). Motherwell have conceded 16 goals, the third-most of the 12 clubs.

Motherwell have lost their last five matches in all competitions. Kilmarnock have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Greg Kiltie (Kilmarnock) 10.0, Tyreece John-Jules (Kilmarnock) 8.1 and Jamie Brandon (Kilmarnock) 8.0 led the match.

Head-to-head

Motherwell are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Kilmarnock.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Kilmarnock or Motherwell (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (3938 of 5059).

Next up

Kilmarnock next travel to Celtic on 8 November 2026.

Motherwell next travel to Dundee Utd on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Kilmarnock: Celtic v Kilmarnock, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Motherwell: Dundee Utd v Motherwell, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Kilmarnock 3–2 Motherwell · Premiership
  • Venue: The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Kilmarnock
  • Referee: C. Scott
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Kilmarnock 1 · draws 2 · Motherwell 3 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Kilmarnock 1W 3D 1L · Motherwell 1W 0D 4L

Kilmarnock 3–2 Motherwell (Premiership): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 7 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.88 / 1.13
Goals
against 1.5 / 2.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
4.83 / 5
Corners
against 7 / 6.5 · 3 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 6 matches
3.67 / 3.75
Shots on target
against 4.17 / 7.75 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 6 matches
2.67 / 1.63
Cards
against 2.17 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 6 matches
3.64 yellows
Referee · C. Scott
21.36 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 14 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 11 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameKilmarnock for / againstLineMotherwell for / against
Goals scored
0.88 for · 1.5 against n 8
3our book
1.13 for · 2.38 against n 8
Corners won
4.83 for · 7 against n 6
9.5standard
5 for · 6.5 against n 8
Shots
10.83 for · 16.5 against n 6
19.5standard
12 for · 19.5 against n 8
Shots on target
3.67 for · 4.17 against n 6
8.5standard
3.75 for · 7.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
12 for · 13 against n 6
21.5standard
9.5 for · 9 against n 8
Cards shown
2.67 for · 2.17 against n 6
3.5standard
1.63 for · 1.25 against n 8

Referee: C. Scott — 3.64 yellow cards a game, 0.36 red cards, 21.36 fouls over 14 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock Goalkeeper

Kilmarnock — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Stryjek690540 min264.3 /90142.3 /9000 /90
C. Ferrie290180 min31.5 /9042 /9000 /90
Kilmarnock — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kilmarnock before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Stryjek n 890
3.97/4

Kilmarnock Defensive

Kilmarnock — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Schjønning-Larsen888704 min60.8 /9040.5 /9040.5 /90243.1 /9070.9 /9020.3 /90
G. Stanger888701 min141.8 /90111.4 /90101.3 /90374.8 /9070.9 /9000 /90
J. Brandon761429 min81.7 /9010.2 /9020.4 /90194 /90122.5 /9010.2 /90
C. McCarthy690540 min111.8 /90152.5 /9030.5 /90305 /9050.8 /9020.3 /90
Michael-John Kamson-Kamara273146 min21.2 /9021.2 /9042.5 /9053.1 /9021.2 /9000 /90
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Kilmarnock — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kilmarnock before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Hugill n 890
16/2
16/2
—
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 888
0.96/1
0.32/0
Martin Moormann
G. Stanger n 887.6
0.95/2
0.84/2
M. Emmanuel
T. Lowery n 887.5
0.11/0
1.37/3
L. Fadinger
G. Kiltie n 887.3
16/2
2.88/7
A. Lowry
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Kilmarnock — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kilmarnock before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Hugill n 890
0.43/0
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 888
0.84/1
G. Stanger n 887.6
1.88/3
T. Lowery n 887.5
1.76/5
G. Kiltie n 887.3
1.37/3
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Kilmarnock Attacking

Kilmarnock — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
J. Hugill890720 min10.1 /9010.1 /90151.9 /9091.1 /9040.5 /9010.1 /90
T. John-Jules767467 min00 /9000 /9081.5 /9030.6 /9071.3 /9000 /90
D. Daniels443171 min00 /9000 /9010.5 /9000 /9031.6 /9000 /90
Roshaun Mathurin13131 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9012.9 /90
C. Burke12626 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9013.5 /90
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Kilmarnock — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kilmarnock before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Hugill n 890
1.96/5
1.16/3
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 888
0.43/0
0.43/0
G. Stanger n 887.6
0.32/0
0.11/0
T. Lowery n 887.5
0.32/0
00/0
G. Kiltie n 887.3
1.36/3
0.84/2
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Kilmarnock — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kilmarnock before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Hugill n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 888
0.11/0
00/0
G. Stanger n 887.6
0.11/0
00/0
T. Lowery n 887.5
00/0
0.32/0
G. Kiltie n 887.3
0.11/0
00/0
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Motherwell

Motherwell Goalkeeper

Motherwell — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
A. Paulsen1090900 min444.4 /90202 /9000 /90
Motherwell — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Motherwell before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Paulsen n 890
56/6

Motherwell Defensive

Motherwell — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Emmanuel1084836 min70.8 /9050.5 /9030.3 /90323.4 /9070.8 /9010.1 /90
Martin Moormann984760 min80.9 /9060.7 /90111.3 /90283.3 /9040.5 /9020.2 /90
T. Sparrow975672 min222.9 /9050.7 /9010.1 /90456 /9060.8 /9020.3 /90
J. Girdwood-Reich868541 min61 /9040.7 /9081.3 /90345.7 /9040.7 /9000 /90
Jamie Knight-Lebel672429 min00 /9030.6 /90132.7 /90163.4 /9030.6 /9010.2 /90
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Motherwell — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Motherwell before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
A. Paulsen n 890
00/0
0.32/0
—
L. Fadinger n 886.1
1.26/3
1.45/4
T. Lowery
M. Emmanuel n 884.8
0.75/0
0.84/2
G. Stanger
A. Lowry n 877.6
0.72/2
0.74/1
G. Kiltie
Martin Moormann n 883.8
0.43/0
0.43/0
M. Schjønning-Larsen
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Motherwell — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Motherwell before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
L. Fadinger n 886.1
2.17/5
M. Emmanuel n 884.8
0.74/1
A. Lowry n 877.6
0.73/2
Martin Moormann n 883.8
0.95/1
T. Sparrow n 872.8
3.18/6
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Motherwell Attacking

Motherwell — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
I. Said966597 min10.2 /9010.2 /9040.6 /9010.2 /9071.1 /90152.3 /90
S. Palmer-Houlden852412 min10.2 /9000 /90102.2 /9020.4 /9030.7 /9000 /90
R. Charles-Cook656333 min20.5 /9000 /9051.4 /9030.8 /9041.1 /9051.4 /90
W. Vogt542208 min00 /9000 /9010.4 /9000 /9000 /9041.7 /90
W. Vogt433130 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9010.7 /9000 /90
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Motherwell — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Motherwell before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Paulsen n 890
00/0
00/0
L. Fadinger n 886.1
0.54/0
0.54/0
M. Emmanuel n 884.8
1.56/3
0.42/1
A. Lowry n 877.6
25/4
1.35/3
Martin Moormann n 883.8
0.32/0
0.11/0
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Motherwell — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Motherwell before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Paulsen n 890
00/0
00/0
L. Fadinger n 886.1
00/0
00/0
M. Emmanuel n 884.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
A. Lowry n 877.6
0.32/0
0.11/0
Martin Moormann n 883.8
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
KilmarnockMotherwell
52%Possession48%
1.51Expected goals (xG)2.44
16Shots15
6Shots on target7
4Shots off target4
6Blocked shots4
14Shots inside the box10
5Corners3
1Offsides3
9Fouls8
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
6Saves4
514Passes478
81%Pass accuracy80%

Kilmarnock Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Hugill9000212006.7
M. Schjønning-Larsen9000000006.5
E. Ring9000101107.2
C. McCarthy9000000106.3
T. Lowery9000101106.3
G. Stanger90000001Y6.3
C. Ferrie9000000008.9
G. Kiltie7720322008.7
T. John-Jules7710224109.2
B. Rice3500000006.5
Michael-John Kamson-Kamara3300001006.5
J. Brandon sub5702003107.3
A. Tshibola sub5500000106.7
D. Daniels sub1300000006.5
I. Owen sub1300111006.6

Motherwell Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
I. Said9000113007.3
S. O'Donnell9000000206.2
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise9000202006.7
M. Emmanuel9000002206.9
J. Hodge9000110507.5
A. Paulsen9000000006.3
T. Sparrow8100001206.9
L. Fadinger7500000306.9
S. Palmer-Houlden6810531207.9
Martin Moormann6800000307.2
A. Lowry6810111107.3
E. Björgólfs­son sub2200000006.3
J. Girdwood-Reich sub2200000006.2
J. Kanga sub2200000106.3
D. Levitt sub1500000106.7
J. Koutroumbis sub900110207

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Kilmarnock v Motherwell — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
KilmarnockDDWDL
Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 0.8 scored / 1 conceded per game
MotherwellWLLLL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 0.8 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Kilmarnock 1 · 2 draws · Motherwell 3 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2026-01-24 Motherwell 4–0 Kilmarnock
  • 2025-11-22 Kilmarnock 1–3 Motherwell
  • 2025-08-30 Motherwell 2–2 Kilmarnock
  • 2025-05-14 Motherwell 3–0 Kilmarnock
  • 2025-04-05 Kilmarnock 2–0 Motherwell
  • 2025-01-08 Kilmarnock 0–0 Motherwell
League standing · 2026/27
Kilmarnock#11 pos9 pts12 pl-15 GD
Motherwell#9 pos12 pts12 pl-6 GD
Goals per game
Kilmarnock scored1.08
Motherwell scored1.17
Kilmarnock conceded2.33
Motherwell conceded1.67

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Kilmarnock v Motherwell?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Kilmarnock v Motherwell was Home or Away (best price 1.30 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Kilmarnock and Motherwell?
In their last 6 meetings, Kilmarnock won 1, Motherwell won 3 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Kilmarnock and Motherwell?
Recent form — Kilmarnock 1W 3D 1L; Motherwell 1W 0D 4L.

Today’s Boards

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