This Matchweek

KilmarnockST Mirren

Kilmarnock v ST Mirren result

Full-time · Kilmarnock 0–1 ST Mirren

Premiership · · Rugby Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Kilmarnock · ST Mirren · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Kilmarnock 0–1 ST Mirren — ST Mirren won this Premiership match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.30 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.9% of 5118 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,967 of 2,632 times (74.7%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

The result

ST Mirren won 1–0 at Rugby Park in the Premiership on Wednesday 2 September. It is ST Mirren’s first win over Kilmarnock since 29 March 2025, after five meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

ST Mirren led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — ST Mirren: Fraser Taylor (4’, assisted by Nikolas Agrafiotis).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Fraser Taylor’s goal on 4 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Kilmarnock 0.43, ST Mirren 1.09, from 9 shots to 10 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

D. Dickinson showed four yellow cards — against 4.1 yellows a game across the last 21 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Kilmarnock: Greg Kiltie (38’) and Bailey Rice (82’); ST Mirren: Nikolas Agrafiotis (42’) and Jayden Richardson (82’).

What it changes

Kilmarnock stay 12th after this result (four league matches played). Kilmarnock have scored four goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 12 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 4 games, ranked per game). Kilmarnock have conceded 14 goals, the most of the 12 clubs.

ST Mirren stay second after this result (four league matches played). ST Mirren have scored seven goals, the fourth-most of the 12 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 4 games, ranked per game). ST Mirren have conceded three goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 12 clubs.

ST Mirren have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Paul Nsio (ST Mirren) 6.5, Fraser Taylor (ST Mirren) 6.4 and Calvin Ramsay (ST Mirren) 6.0 led the match.

Head-to-head

Kilmarnock are unbeaten in the last five meetings with ST Mirren.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Kilmarnock or ST Mirren (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.9% of the time in the last 90 days (3985 of 5118).

Next up

Kilmarnock next travel to Celtic on 8 November 2026.

ST Mirren next travel to Celtic on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Kilmarnock: Celtic v Kilmarnock, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for ST Mirren: Celtic v ST Mirren, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Kilmarnock 0–1 ST Mirren · Premiership
  • Venue: Rugby Park · Kilmarnock
  • Referee: D. Dickinson
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Kilmarnock 3 · draws 2 · ST Mirren 1 · 3.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Kilmarnock 1W 1D 3L · ST Mirren 2W 1D 2L

Kilmarnock 0–1 ST Mirren (Premiership): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 7 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 2.38
Goals
against 1.88 / 1.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
4.25 / 6.75
Corners
against 5.25 / 5.25 · 1 of the last 3 over 9.5
over 4 matches
4.25 / 5.75
Shots on target
against 8 / 3.75 · 3 of the last 3 over 8.5
over 4 matches
1.75 / 2.5
Cards
against 1.25 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 3 over 3.5
over 4 matches
4.14 yellows
Referee · D. Dickinson
22.95 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 21 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 30 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 30 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameKilmarnock for / againstLineST Mirren for / against
Goals scored
1.13 for · 1.88 against n 8
3our book
2.38 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
4.25 for · 5.25 against n 4
9.5standard
6.75 for · 5.25 against n 4
Shots
8.25 for · 17.25 against n 4
19.5standard
12.75 for · 10.25 against n 4
Shots on target
4.25 for · 8 against n 4
8.5standard
5.75 for · 3.75 against n 4
Fouls committed
10.25 for · 8 against n 4
21.5standard
11 for · 9.5 against n 4
Cards shown
1.75 for · 1.25 against n 4
3.5standard
2.5 for · 1.75 against n 4

Referee: D. Dickinson — 4.14 yellow cards a game, 0.29 red cards, 22.95 fouls over 21 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock Goalkeeper

Kilmarnock — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Stryjek390270 min175.7 /90134.3 /9000 /90
Kilmarnock — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kilmarnock before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Stryjek n 890
48/5

Kilmarnock Defensive

Kilmarnock — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Schjønning-Larsen385254 min00 /9020.7 /9000 /9041.4 /9031.1 /9000 /90
G. Stanger384251 min41.4 /9041.4 /9020.7 /90176.1 /9010.4 /9000 /90
J. Brandon360181 min31.5 /9010.5 /9021 /9084 /9042 /9010.5 /90
C. McCarthy19090 min00 /9066 /9022 /9066 /9022 /9011 /90
E. Brown19090 min11 /9000 /9000 /9066 /9011 /9000 /90
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Kilmarnock — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kilmarnock before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Hugill n 888.6
1.36/4
0.85/1
—
T. Lowery n 889.3
0.43/0
0.64/1
R. Carr
M. Stryjek n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
G. Kiltie n 884.3
1.26/3
3.28/7
—
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 872.8
0.84/1
0.64/0
P. Nsio
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Kilmarnock — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kilmarnock before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Lowery n 889.3
1.47/3
J. Hugill n 888.6
0.53/1
G. Kiltie n 884.3
1.37/3
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 872.8
0.63/1
G. Stanger n 884.1
0.96/1
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Kilmarnock Attacking

Kilmarnock — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
J. Hugill390270 min10.3 /9000 /9082.7 /9051.7 /9010.3 /9000 /90
T. John-Jules361183 min00 /9000 /9031.5 /9021 /9021 /9000 /90
D. Daniels14545 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9024 /9000 /90
Roshaun Mathurin13131 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9012.9 /90
C. Burke12626 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9013.5 /90
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Kilmarnock — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kilmarnock before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Hugill n 888.6
26/6
1.46/4
T. Lowery n 889.3
0.84/2
0.42/1
M. Stryjek n 890
00/0
00/0
G. Kiltie n 884.3
1.27/2
0.54/0
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 872.8
0.84/1
0.32/0
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Kilmarnock — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kilmarnock before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Hugill n 888.6
0.84/2
00/0
T. Lowery n 889.3
0.11/0
0.43/0
M. Stryjek n 890
00/0
00/0
G. Kiltie n 884.3
0.11/0
0.43/0
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 872.8
0.21/0
0.21/0
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ST Mirren

ST Mirren Goalkeeper

ST Mirren — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Chapman390270 min72.3 /9031 /9020.7 /90
ST Mirren — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for ST Mirren before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Chapman n 390
2.32/1

ST Mirren Defensive

ST Mirren — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
A. Gogić390270 min31 /9020.7 /9000 /9051.7 /9051.7 /9000 /90
J. Richardson370209 min52.2 /9010.4 /9010.4 /90114.7 /9010.4 /9000 /90
D. John290180 min31.5 /9000 /9000 /9052.5 /9000 /9000 /90
Henry Fieldson290180 min84 /9031.5 /9042 /90147 /9042 /9010.5 /90
M. Fraser271141 min31.9 /9021.3 /9021.3 /90148.9 /9000 /9010.6 /90
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ST Mirren — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for ST Mirren before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
P. Nsio n 390
2.33/2
00/0
M. Schjønning-Larsen
A. Gogić n 890
1.86/4
0.32/0
—
J. Chapman n 390
00/0
0.31/0
—
R. Carr n 385.3
2.83/2
1.83/2
T. Lowery
S. Ramos n 374.3
1.22/1
3.63/2
—
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ST Mirren — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for ST Mirren before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
P. Nsio n 390
3.33/2
A. Gogić n 890
1.46/2
R. Carr n 385.3
3.53/2
S. Ramos n 374.3
0.82/0
J. Richardson n 858.5
1.53/2
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ST Mirren Attacking

ST Mirren — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Eseosa Sule352156 min00 /9000 /9063.5 /9031.7 /9021.2 /9031.7 /90
J. Young32368 min00 /9000 /9034 /9022.6 /9000 /9034 /90
Nikolas Agrafiotis16161 min00 /9000 /9011.5 /9000 /9011.5 /9011.5 /90
P. Nsio390270 min10.3 /9000 /9020.7 /9010.3 /9010.3 /9062 /90
R. Carr385256 min00 /9000 /9020.7 /9000 /9020.7 /9062.1 /90
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ST Mirren — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for ST Mirren before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Gogić n 890
15/3
0.53/1
P. Nsio n 390
0.72/0
0.31/0
J. Chapman n 390
00/0
00/0
R. Carr n 385.3
0.71/1
00/0
S. Ramos n 374.3
1.23/0
0.82/0
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ST Mirren — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for ST Mirren before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
P. Nsio n 390
0.31/0
00/0
A. Gogić n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
J. Chapman n 390
00/0
00/0
R. Carr n 385.3
00/0
00/0
S. Ramos n 374.3
0.41/0
0.81/1
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
KilmarnockST Mirren
47%Possession53%
0.43Expected goals (xG)1.09
9Shots10
2Shots on target1
3Shots off target5
4Blocked shots4
4Shots inside the box7
7Corners3
2Offsides1
12Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
0Saves2
457Passes520
81%Pass accuracy86%

Kilmarnock Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Hugill9000110006.2
M. Stryjek9000000006.3
G. Stanger9000000107.5
M. Schjønning-Larsen9000112007
C. McCarthy9000000607.7
G. Kiltie90000021Y7
T. Lowery7800001306.7
M. O'Hara6600000505.9
Mark O'Hara6600000507
E. Ring4500000206.6
J. Yfeko4500000006.9
T. John-Jules4500100207
A. Tshibola sub4500101106.7
D. Daniels sub4500100206.7
J. Brandon sub4500000206.9
R. McKenzie sub2400000206.7
B. Rice sub12000000Y6.2

ST Mirren Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
C. Ramsay9000000408
P. Nsio9000101507.3
D. John9000101106.5
A. Gogić9000000006.9
Henry Fieldson9000000007.2
R. Carr9000100207.6
J. Chapman9000000007.6
F. Taylor7410111208.5
Ismeal Kabia7400002006.3
C. Mochrie6600000106.5
Nikolas Agrafiotis61012020Y5.9
J. Young sub2900000006.2
L. Thomas sub2400001206.6
J. Richardson sub16000001Y6.9
Eseosa Sule sub1600000206.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Kilmarnock v ST Mirren — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
KilmarnockDLLWL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1.4 scored / 3 conceded per game
ST MirrenLWWLD
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Kilmarnock 3 · 2 draws · ST Mirren 1 · 3.67 goals/game
  • 2026-05-09 ST Mirren 0–3 Kilmarnock
  • 2026-02-11 Kilmarnock 4–3 ST Mirren
  • 2025-12-27 ST Mirren 0–0 Kilmarnock
  • 2025-10-04 Kilmarnock 2–0 ST Mirren
  • 2025-09-19 Kilmarnock 2–2 ST Mirren
  • 2025-03-29 ST Mirren 5–1 Kilmarnock
League standing · 2026/27
Kilmarnock#12 pos9 pts12 pl-15 GD
ST Mirren#8 pos14 pts12 pl-8 GD
Goals per game
Kilmarnock scored1.08
ST Mirren scored1
Kilmarnock conceded2.33
ST Mirren conceded1.67

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Kilmarnock v ST Mirren?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Kilmarnock v ST Mirren was Home or Away (best price 1.30 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Kilmarnock and ST Mirren?
In their last 6 meetings, Kilmarnock won 3, ST Mirren won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Kilmarnock and ST Mirren?
Recent form — Kilmarnock 1W 1D 3L; ST Mirren 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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