AlvercaEstrela

Alverca v Estrela result

Full-time · Alverca 2–2 Estrela

Primeira Liga · · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Alverca · Estrela

The model’s pre-match pick

Alverca 2–2 Estrela — this Primeira Liga match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.72 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 55.7% of 140 landed (95% range 47.4–63.7%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Alverca and Estrela drew 2–2 at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 15 August. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Alverca out-shot Estrela 14 to 10 and created the better chances, 1.94 xG to 1.36 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Estrela: L. Antonetti (51’, assisted by Rafa Soares) and A. Marcus (69’, assisted by Rafa Soares); Alverca: Ian Luccas (58’, assisted by I. James) and Vivaldo Semedo (62’, assisted by Rayan). Chiquinho (74’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with A. Marcus’s goal on 69 minutes.

Discipline

J. Bessa showed six yellow cards and one red — against 5.5 yellows a game across the last 8 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Alverca: Davy Gui (14’) and Vivaldo Semedo (44’); Estrela: Luan Patrick (17’), S. Leković (35’), Eddy Doue (43’) and E. Pedro Vanga (85’).

What it changes

Alverca move up from 18th to 15th (two league matches played).

Estrela move down from third to sixth (two league matches played).

Alverca are winless in their last five matches in all competitions. Estrela are winless in their last nine matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Rafa Soares (Estrela) 8.3, A. Marcus (Estrela) 7.5 and I. James (Alverca) 6.9 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Alverca next travel to Academico Viseu on 28 November 2026.

Estrela next host Benfica on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Alverca: Academico Viseu v Alverca, Saturday 28 November — the preview. Next for Estrela: Estrela v Benfica, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Alverca 2–2 Estrela · Primeira Liga
  • Venue: Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · Alverca do Ribatejo
  • Referee: J. Bessa
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 2): Alverca 0 · draws 2 · Estrela 0 · 3 goals/game
  • Recent form: Alverca 1W 1D 3L · Estrela 0W 3D 2L

Alverca 2–2 Estrela (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 8 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 0.88
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.25
over 8 matches
6.13 / 3.25
Corners
against 6 / 6.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.75 / 2.88
Shots on target
against 3.88 / 4.25 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.88 / 3.13
Cards
against 1.75 / 2.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
5.5 yellows
Referee · J. Bessa
28.75 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 8 matches
19
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 9 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 9 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAlverca for / againstLineEstrela for / against
Goals scored
1 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.25our book
0.88 for · 1.63 against n 8
Corners won
6.13 for · 6 against n 8
9.5standard
3.25 for · 6.25 against n 8
Shots
10 for · 12.63 against n 8
19.5standard
9.38 for · 13.25 against n 8
Shots on target
3.75 for · 3.88 against n 8
8.5standard
2.88 for · 4.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
12 for · 13.38 against n 8
21.5standard
13 for · 14.25 against n 8
Cards shown
1.88 for · 1.75 against n 8
3.5standard
3.13 for · 2.63 against n 8

Referee: J. Bessa — 5.5 yellow cards a game, 0.38 red cards, 28.75 fouls over 8 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Alverca

Alverca Goalkeeper

Alverca — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Matheus Mendes19090 min22 /9022 /9000 /90
Alverca — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 9 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Matheus Mendes n 890
2.66/3

Alverca Defensive

Alverca — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
B. Meupiyou19090 min33 /9000 /9011 /9044 /9000 /9000 /90
S. Baseya19090 min33 /9011 /9000 /9055 /9000 /9000 /90
Y. Bojang16060 min00 /9000 /9000 /9023 /9023 /9011.5 /90
Francisco Chissumba13030 min00 /9000 /9000 /9013 /9000 /9000 /90
D. Gui19090 min66 /9000 /9000 /9066 /9022 /9000 /90
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Alverca — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 9 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
D. Gui n 839.8
2.86/3
0.82/1
Eddy Doue
Chiquinho n 884.3
1.56/3
3.67/6
L. Antonetti
I. James n 889.1
1.16/3
0.95/2
Eddy Doue
B. Meupiyou n 889.8
0.83/3
0.65/0
Luan Patrick
Zoubdi n 889.9
0.64/1
0.32/0
Eddy Doue
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Alverca — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 9 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
D. Gui n 839.8
4.26/4
Chiquinho n 884.3
1.96/4
I. James n 889.1
1.68/4
B. Meupiyou n 889.8
1.46/4
S. Baseya n 861.6
1.14/1
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Alverca Attacking

Alverca — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Chiquinho19090 min00 /9000 /9033 /9011 /9033 /9011 /90
Figueiredo17979 min00 /9000 /9011.1 /9000 /9000 /9011.1 /90
Vivaldo Semedo16060 min00 /9000 /9011.5 /9011.5 /9011.5 /9000 /90
S. Merheg13030 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9013 /90
D. Gui19090 min00 /9000 /9011 /9011 /9000 /9000 /90
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Alverca — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 9 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Chiquinho n 884.3
1.57/2
0.54/0
Zoubdi n 889.9
1.36/3
0.52/1
D. Gui n 839.8
1.14/0
0.31/0
I. James n 889.1
0.52/1
00/0
S. Baseya n 861.6
0.53/0
00/0
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Alverca — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 9 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Chiquinho n 884.3
0.11/0
0.32/0
Zoubdi n 889.9
00/0
0.32/0
I. James n 889.1
00/0
0.11/0
Matheus Mendes n 890
00/0
00/0
B. Meupiyou n 889.8
00/0
00/0
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Estrela

Estrela Goalkeeper

Estrela — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Léo Linck19090 min66 /9022 /9000 /90

Estrela Defensive

Estrela — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Bernardo Schappo19090 min11 /9022 /9011 /9044 /9011 /9000 /90
Luan Patrick19090 min22 /9000 /9000 /9044 /9000 /9000 /90
Rafa Soares19090 min11 /9000 /9011 /9033 /9000 /9000 /90
M. Scholze17474 min56.1 /9000 /9000 /9067.3 /9000 /9000 /90
Jefferson Encada11616 min15.6 /9015.6 /9000 /90316.9 /90211.3 /9000 /90
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Estrela — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 9 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Eddy Doue n 869.1
1.65/4
1.55/3
Zoubdi
Bernardo Schappo n 880.8
1.15/2
0.32/0
—
Luan Patrick n 887
15/2
0.32/0
B. Meupiyou
L. Antonetti n 845.5
1.73/1
25/3
Chiquinho
A. Marcus n 888.6
0.94/2
2.27/5
—
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Estrela — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 9 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Eddy Doue n 869.1
2.65/3
Luan Patrick n 887
1.66/4
Bernardo Schappo n 880.8
1.45/4
L. Antonetti n 845.5
1.23/2
A. Marcus n 888.6
15/3
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Estrela Attacking

Estrela — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
L. Antonetti18989 min11 /9000 /9011 /9011 /9011 /9000 /90
Eddy Doue19090 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9033 /90
L. Zvonarek19090 min00 /9000 /9011 /9011 /9011 /9011 /90
A. Marcus18989 min00 /9000 /9022 /9011 /9011 /9022 /90
I. Stoica17474 min00 /9011.2 /9011.2 /9000 /9011.2 /9000 /90
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Estrela — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 9 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Eddy Doue n 869.1
0.72/2
0.31/1
Bernardo Schappo n 880.8
0.43/0
0.11/0
Luan Patrick n 887
00/0
00/0
L. Antonetti n 845.5
14/0
0.73/0
A. Marcus n 888.6
0.94/2
0.43/0
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Estrela — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 9 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Eddy Doue n 869.1
0.21/0
00/0
Luan Patrick n 887
00/0
00/0
Bernardo Schappo n 880.8
00/0
00/0
L. Antonetti n 845.5
0.21/0
00/0
A. Marcus n 888.6
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
AlvercaEstrela
46%Possession54%
1.94Expected goals (xG)1.36
14Shots10
4Shots on target7
9Shots off target3
1Blocked shots0
10Shots inside the box8
2Corners0
2Offsides1
10Fouls12
2Yellow cards4
1Red cards0
5Saves2
330Passes397
81%Pass accuracy84%

Alverca Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Matheus Mendes9000000006.9
S. Baseya9000110006.9
Y. Bojang9000000107.2
Zoubdi9000311206.9
Figueiredo9000102307.2
B. Meupiyou8300001106.2
Ian Luccas8310110007.5
Vivaldo Semedo8310311006.5
I. James7501003307.9
Chiquinho7400203306.5
D. Gui5900100006.2
Rayan sub3101001307.9
Francisco Chissumba sub1500000206.6
Vasco Moreira sub1400000006.3
M. Essimi Ateba sub1400100106.7
S. Merheg sub1400000006.7

Estrela Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Léo Linck9000000006.9
Luan Patrick9000000106.9
S. Leković9000000106.6
Eddy Doue9000001107
A. Marcus9010222108.2
L. Zvonarek9000000106
Rafa Soares8902002306.2
L. Antonetti8810530107
Jefferson Encada6400000206.3
Robinho6400110106.6
I. Stoica6400111106.3
M. Scholze sub2600000106.6
B. Souza sub2600101006.9
E. Pedro Vanga sub2600001006.3
S. van Hooijdonk sub900000006.2
L. Mincarelli Davin sub10000000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Alverca v Estrela — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AlvercaWLDLL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
EstrelaLLDDD
Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 2
Alverca 0 · 2 draws · Estrela 0 · 3 goals/game
  • 2026-01-31 Alverca 1–1 Estrela
  • 2025-08-25 Estrela 2–2 Alverca
League standing · 2026/27
Alverca#11 pos12 pts11 pl-1 GD
Estrela#12 pos10 pts10 pl-4 GD
Goals per game
Alverca scored1.27
Estrela scored1.5
Alverca conceded1.36
Estrela conceded1.9

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Alverca v Estrela?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Alverca v Estrela was Under 2.5 goals (best price 1.72 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Estrela?
In their last 2 meetings, Alverca won 0, Estrela won 0 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Alverca and Estrela?
Recent form — Alverca 1W 1D 3L; Estrela 0W 3D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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