Casa PiaNacional

Casa Pia v Nacional result

Full-time · Casa Pia 0–2 Nacional

Primeira Liga · · Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Casa Pia · Nacional · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Casa Pia 0–2 Nacional — Nacional won this Primeira Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 55.7% of 140 landed (95% range 47.4–63.7%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Nacional won 2–0 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 30 August.

The goals

Nacional led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Nacional: Paulinho Bóia (33’) and C. Ramírez (42’, assisted by José Gomes).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Paulinho Bóia’s goal on 33 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Casa Pia 0.66, Nacional 1.24, from 9 shots to 9 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

J. Pinheiro showed five yellow cards — against 4.2 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Casa Pia: Renato Nhaga (58’) and Geraldes (90+6’); Nacional: Liziero (51’), Lucas França (62’) and Ulisses (90’).

What it changes

Casa Pia move down from 10th to 11th (four league matches played). Casa Pia have scored 33 goals, the fourth-fewest of the 19 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 36 games, ranked per game). Casa Pia have conceded 57 goals, the seventh-most of the 19 clubs.

Nacional move up from 14th to eighth (four league matches played). Nacional have scored 37 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 19 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 34 games, ranked per game). Nacional have conceded 45 goals, the ninth-fewest of the 19 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, C. Ramírez (Nacional) 6.8, Paulinho Bóia (Nacional) 5.7 and F. Benaissa-Yahia (Casa Pia) 5.3 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Casa Pia next host SC Braga on 30 November 2026.

Nacional next travel to Maritimo on 27 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Casa Pia: Casa Pia v SC Braga, Monday 30 November — the preview. Next for Nacional: Maritimo v Nacional, Friday 27 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Casa Pia 0–2 Nacional · Primeira Liga
  • Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Rio Maior
  • Referee: J. Pinheiro
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 5): Casa Pia 1 · draws 1 · Nacional 3 · 3.4 goals/game
  • Recent form: Casa Pia 2W 0D 3L · Nacional 0W 2D 3L

Casa Pia 0–2 Nacional (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.88 / 0.88
Goals
against 1.63 / 2.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
2.63 / 6.88
Corners
against 6.13 / 4.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
2.5 / 3.75
Shots on target
against 5.25 / 5 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
3.63 / 3
Cards
against 2.75 / 2.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4.18 yellows
Referee · J. Pinheiro
23.55 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 11 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 24 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 24 August 2025. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameCasa Pia for / againstLineNacional for / against
Goals scored
0.88 for · 1.63 against n 8
2.5standard
0.88 for · 2.38 against n 8
Corners won
2.63 for · 6.13 against n 8
9.5standard
6.88 for · 4.63 against n 8
Shots
6.5 for · 16.5 against n 8
19.5standard
13.25 for · 13.63 against n 8
Shots on target
2.5 for · 5.25 against n 8
8.5standard
3.75 for · 5 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.13 for · 13.88 against n 8
21.5standard
14.88 for · 12.13 against n 8
Cards shown
3.63 for · 2.75 against n 8
3.5standard
3 for · 2.75 against n 8

Referee: J. Pinheiro — 4.18 yellow cards a game, 0.18 red cards, 23.55 fouls over 11 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Casa Pia

Casa Pia Defensive

Casa Pia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Casa Pia before kick-off, to 24 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Duplexe Tchamba n 883.5
1.15/1
0.73/2
João Aurélio
José Fonte n 882.3
0.84/2
0.85/1
José Gomes
P. Sequeira n 890
00/0
0.32/0
—
Gaizka Larrazabal n 883.5
0.86/0
0.74/1
Matheus Dias
J. Livolant n 880.8
0.32/0
2.27/5
C. Ramírez
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Casa Pia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Casa Pia before kick-off, to 24 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Duplexe Tchamba n 883.5
1.25/4
José Fonte n 882.3
0.74/1
P. Sequeira n 890
00/0
Gaizka Larrazabal n 883.5
26/5
J. Livolant n 880.8
0.64/0
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Casa Pia Attacking

Casa Pia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Casa Pia before kick-off, to 24 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Duplexe Tchamba n 883.5
0.85/1
0.32/0
José Fonte n 882.3
0.11/0
00/0
P. Sequeira n 890
00/0
00/0
Gaizka Larrazabal n 883.5
0.94/3
0.54/0
J. Livolant n 880.8
0.43/0
0.43/0
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Casa Pia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Casa Pia before kick-off, to 24 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Duplexe Tchamba n 883.5
0.32/0
0.11/0
P. Sequeira n 890
00/0
00/0
José Fonte n 882.3
00/0
00/0
Gaizka Larrazabal n 883.5
0.11/0
00/0
J. Livolant n 880.8
0.11/0
0.43/0
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Nacional

Nacional Defensive

Nacional — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 24 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Matheus Dias n 873.6
1.86/4
1.26/2
Gaizka Larrazabal
João Aurélio n 863.6
1.66/3
1.86/4
Duplexe Tchamba
Lucas França n 890
00/0
0.53/1
—
José Gomes n 884
0.83/2
0.42/1
José Fonte
C. Ramírez n 383.3
1.83/1
1.42/1
J. Livolant
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Nacional — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 24 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
João Aurélio n 863.6
2.88/5
Matheus Dias n 873.6
1.24/3
Lucas França n 890
00/0
José Gomes n 884
1.36/2
C. Ramírez n 383.3
1.13/0
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Nacional Attacking

Nacional — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 24 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
João Aurélio n 863.6
0.53/0
00/0
Matheus Dias n 873.6
0.32/0
00/0
Lucas França n 890
00/0
00/0
José Gomes n 884
0.54/0
0.43/0
C. Ramírez n 383.3
1.82/2
1.12/1
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Nacional — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 24 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
João Aurélio n 863.6
00/0
0.21/0
Lucas França n 890
00/0
00/0
Matheus Dias n 873.6
00/0
00/0
José Gomes n 884
00/0
0.11/0
C. Ramírez n 383.3
0.41/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Casa PiaNacional
62%Possession38%
0.66Expected goals (xG)1.24
9Shots9
3Shots on target2
4Shots off target3
2Blocked shots4
4Shots inside the box3
2Corners3
0Offsides1
13Fouls22
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
0Saves3
459Passes285
77%Pass accuracy72%

Casa Pia Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
P. Sequeira9000000006
José Fonte9000100106.6
Duplexe Tchamba9000100006.5
S. Pérez9000000106.9
F. Benaissa-Yahia9000101607
J. Livolant9000323207.2
Gaizka Larrazabal7300000106.5
Max Svensson7300000106.2
João Goulart4500000005.3
I. Mohamed4500000106.7
K. Osundina4500000206.6
Geraldes sub45000002Y6.6
Renato Nhaga sub45000002Y7.5
Tiago Morais sub4500110206.9
K. Prieto sub1700000106.2
Cassiano sub1700000206.9

Nacional Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Lucas França90000000Y7.2
João Aurélio9000001306.9
Léo Santos9000000107.3
Zé Vitor9000000007.2
José Gomes9001002207.2
Matheus Dias9000000106.9
C. Ramírez8810110007.3
Paulinho Bóia8810212107.9
C. Labidi8200000206
Liziero68001010Y6.9
Witi6800100206.5
Filipe Soares sub2200000006.2
Martim Watts sub2200000106.3
Ulisses sub8000000Y6.3
Lucas João sub800000006.3
M. Nourani sub800000006.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Casa Pia v Nacional — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Casa PiaWLLWL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
NacionalDLLDL
Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 1 scored / 2.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 5
Casa Pia 1 · 1 draw · Nacional 3 · 3.4 goals/game
  • 2025-03-16 Nacional 3–1 Casa Pia
  • 2024-10-25 Casa Pia 1–0 Nacional
  • 2023-11-25 Nacional 0–0 Casa Pia
  • 2023-02-09 Casa Pia 2–5 Nacional
  • 2020-11-25 Casa Pia 2–3 Nacional
League standing · 2025/26
Casa Pia#16 pos30 pts34 pl-26 GD
Nacional#14 pos34 pts34 pl-8 GD
Goals per game
Casa Pia scored0.91
Nacional scored1.09
Casa Pia conceded1.68
Nacional conceded1.32

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Casa Pia v Nacional?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Casa Pia v Nacional was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Nacional?
In their last 5 meetings, Casa Pia won 1, Nacional won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.4 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Casa Pia and Nacional?
Recent form — Casa Pia 2W 0D 3L; Nacional 0W 2D 3L.

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How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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