NacionalEstrela

Nacional v Estrela result

Full-time · Nacional 2–0 Estrela

Primeira Liga ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Nacional · Estrela

The model’s pre-match pick

Nacional 2–0 Estrela — Nacional won this Primeira Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 78% of 5167 landed (95% range 76.8–79.1%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,999 of 2,672 times (74.8%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Nacional beat Estrela 2–0 in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 4 April.

The goals

Nacional led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Nacional: C. Ramírez (2’) and Paulinho Bóia (71’, assisted by Léo Santos).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with C. Ramírez’s goal on 2 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Nacional 0.96, Estrela 0.53, from 16 shots to 11 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

J. Goncalves showed seven yellow cards — against 4.3 yellows a game across the last 13 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Nacional: Léo Santos (45+3’), A. Núñez (78’), Daniel Júnior (86’) and Paulinho Bóia (90+6’); Estrela: Luan Patrick (1’), Rodrigo Pinho (16’) and Jefferson Encada (81’).

What it changes

Nacional move up from 16th to 15th (28 league matches played). Nacional have scored 37 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 19 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 34 games, ranked per game). Nacional have conceded 45 goals, the ninth-fewest of the 19 clubs.

Estrela move down from 11th to 14th (28 league matches played). Estrela have scored 38 goals, the 10th-most of the 19 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 34 games, ranked per game). Estrela have conceded 56 goals, the fifth-most of the 19 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Paulinho Bóia (Nacional) 5.9, C. Ramírez (Nacional) 5.8 and M. Scholze (Estrela) 5.4 led the match.

Head-to-head

Estrela are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Nacional, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Nacional or Estrela (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 78% of the time in the last 90 days (4028 of 5167).

Next up

Nacional next host Academico Viseu on 7 November 2026.

Estrela next host Benfica on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Nacional: Maritimo v Nacional, Friday 27 November — the preview. Next for Estrela: Estrela v Benfica, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Nacional 2–0 Estrela · Primeira Liga
  • Referee: J. Goncalves
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 3): Nacional 0 · draws 1 · Estrela 2 · 1.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Nacional 0W 1D 4L · Estrela 1W 2D 2L

Nacional 2–0 Estrela (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.38 / 1.25
Goals
against 1.38 / 1.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.88 / 3.88
Corners
against 5.63 / 6.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.63 / 4.38
Shots on target
against 4.75 / 4.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
3.13 / 2.25
Cards
against 2.75 / 2.5 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4.31 yellows
Referee · J. Goncalves
24.77 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 13 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 21 March 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 21 March 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameNacional for / againstLineEstrela for / against
Goals scored
0.38 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.5standard
1.25 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
4.88 for · 5.63 against n 8
9.5standard
3.88 for · 6.63 against n 8
Shots
13.5 for · 11.88 against n 8
19.5standard
12.13 for · 14 against n 8
Shots on target
4.63 for · 4.75 against n 8
8.5standard
4.38 for · 4.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.75 for · 12.63 against n 8
21.5standard
14.63 for · 15.75 against n 8
Cards shown
3.13 for · 2.75 against n 8
3.5standard
2.25 for · 2.5 against n 8

Referee: J. Goncalves — 4.31 yellow cards a game, 0.23 red cards, 24.77 fouls over 13 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Nacional

Nacional Goalkeeper

Nacional — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Kaique21901890 min653.1 /90291.4 /9020.1 /90
Lucas França690540 min183 /90101.7 /9000 /90
Nacional — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Kaique n 890
3.46/6
Lucas França n 890
36/4

Nacional Defensive

Nacional — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Léo Santos25872179 min200.8 /90230.9 /90220.9 /901014.2 /90311.3 /90100.4 /90
Zé Vitor24892133 min451.9 /90351.5 /90180.8 /901335.6 /90431.8 /9080.3 /90
José Gomes20851706 min261.4 /90160.8 /9090.5 /90764 /90160.8 /9020.1 /90
João Aurélio15841253 min332.4 /90201.4 /9050.4 /90765.5 /90171.2 /9020.1 /90
A. Núñez13841094 min211.7 /9090.7 /9020.2 /90352.9 /90201.6 /9010.1 /90
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Nacional — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Paulinho Bóia n 882.6
1.15/2
2.98/6
A. Marcus
C. Ramírez n 886.5
1.86/4
1.26/2
I. Stoica
Matheus Dias n 884.6
1.26/3
1.15/3
—
Léo Santos n 890
1.86/4
0.32/0
Luan Patrick
Zé Vitor n 890
26/5
0.95/2
Luan Patrick
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Nacional — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Paulinho Bóia n 882.6
1.58/2
C. Ramírez n 886.5
0.32/0
Matheus Dias n 884.6
1.56/5
Léo Santos n 890
1.15/2
Zé Vitor n 890
2.57/5
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Nacional Attacking

Nacional — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Paulinho Bóia27852286 min30.1 /9020.1 /90421.7 /90210.8 /90341.3 /90311.2 /90
C. Ramírez26872263 min130.5 /9000 /90642.5 /90351.4 /90230.9 /90190.8 /90
Pablo Ruan1548715 min00 /9000 /9081 /9050.6 /90111.4 /9050.6 /90
Witi1545678 min00 /9000 /9091.2 /9020.3 /90101.3 /9060.8 /90
Gabriel Veron869551 min10.2 /9000 /9061 /9030.5 /9040.7 /9050.8 /90
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Nacional — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Paulinho Bóia n 882.6
1.97/4
1.27/2
C. Ramírez n 886.5
2.77/5
0.96/1
Matheus Dias n 884.6
0.52/2
0.11/0
Léo Santos n 890
0.95/2
0.43/0
Zé Vitor n 890
1.15/3
0.32/0
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Nacional — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Paulinho Bóia n 882.6
0.11/0
00/0
C. Ramírez n 886.5
0.11/0
00/0
Matheus Dias n 884.6
00/0
00/0
Léo Santos n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Zé Vitor n 890
00/0
0.11/0
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Estrela

Estrela Goalkeeper

Estrela — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Renan Ribeiro27902430 min843.1 /90451.7 /9010 /90
Estrela — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Renan Ribeiro n 890
3.48/7

Estrela Defensive

Estrela — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Luan Patrick26872258 min341.4 /90311.2 /90271.1 /90763 /90190.8 /9010 /90
Bernardo Schappo22841849 min401.9 /90231.1 /90190.9 /901477.2 /90261.3 /9060.3 /90
Jefferson Encada18701259 min201.4 /90141 /9080.6 /90543.9 /90191.4 /9030.2 /90
Otávio16661054 min292.5 /90312.6 /9070.6 /90736.2 /90252.1 /9040.3 /90
A. Chernev1283990 min181.6 /9030.3 /9030.3 /90474.3 /90121.1 /9030.3 /90
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Estrela — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Renan Ribeiro n 890
00/0
0.32/0
—
Luan Patrick n 884.3
0.84/2
0.32/0
Zé Vitor
Paulo Moreira n 890
1.98/6
1.65/4
—
A. Marcus n 882.6
1.16/2
2.27/5
Paulinho Bóia
I. Stoica n 859.6
1.35/1
2.37/3
C. Ramírez
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Estrela — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Luan Patrick n 884.3
2.18/6
Paulo Moreira n 890
2.37/5
A. Marcus n 882.6
1.58/2
I. Stoica n 859.6
1.15/1
Bernardo Schappo n 883.5
1.67/4
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Estrela Attacking

Estrela — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
I. Stoica24481161 min20.2 /9020.2 /90191.5 /9070.5 /90151.2 /9050.4 /90
Kikas17711213 min60.4 /9010.1 /90251.9 /90161.2 /9090.7 /9010.1 /90
Rodrigo Pinho1739661 min40.5 /9010.1 /90233.1 /90111.5 /9060.8 /9040.5 /90
Jorge Meireles1253639 min00 /9010.1 /9040.6 /9020.3 /9071 /9091.3 /90
L. Antonetti642254 min00 /9000 /9031.1 /9031.1 /9000 /9041.4 /90
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Estrela — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Renan Ribeiro n 890
00/0
00/0
Luan Patrick n 884.3
00/0
00/0
Paulo Moreira n 890
15/3
0.43/0
A. Marcus n 882.6
1.67/4
0.75/0
I. Stoica n 859.6
2.16/3
0.62/1
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Estrela — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Renan Ribeiro n 890
00/0
00/0
Luan Patrick n 884.3
00/0
00/0
Paulo Moreira n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
A. Marcus n 882.6
0.32/0
0.42/1
I. Stoica n 859.6
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
NacionalEstrela
49%Possession51%
0.96Expected goals (xG)0.53
16Shots11
4Shots on target2
5Shots off target6
7Blocked shots3
8Shots inside the box6
5Corners6
1Offsides5
14Fouls8
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
2Saves2
314Passes331
78%Pass accuracy77%

Nacional Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Kaique9000000006.9
A. Núñez90000010Y7.2
Léo Santos90010012Y7.3
Zé Vitor9000110007.2
C. Labidi9000002206.6
C. Ramírez9010311107.7
Paulinho Bóia90101122Y8.2
Gabriel Veron8900100206.2
José Gomes7700002307.5
Liziero7700001507.2
Miguel Baeza4900100006.5
Daniel Júnior sub41001110Y6.5
L. Vallier sub1300000006.7
Filipe Soares sub1300100006.7
Francisco Gonçalves sub800000006.7

Estrela Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Renan Ribeiro9000000006.7
M. Scholze9000000506.6
Luan Patrick90000001Y6.9
Bernardo Schappo9000001207.2
K. Höög Jansson9000101307.3
A. Marcus9000101206.5
Rodrigo Pinho85001110Y6.7
Bruno Langa7500000106.3
Eddy Doue7400000106.3
Alexandre Sola4500000006.7
I. Stoica4500000006.7
T. Moustier sub4500102106.2
Jovane Cabral sub4500410106.9
S. van Hooijdonk sub1600000006.5
Jefferson Encada sub15000001Y6.9
L. Antonetti sub1200000006.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Nacional v Estrela — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
NacionalLLDLL
Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
EstrelaLDDLW
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 3
Nacional 0 · 1 draw · Estrela 2 · 1.67 goals/game
  • 2025-11-09 Estrela 1–1 Nacional
  • 2025-04-06 Nacional 0–1 Estrela
  • 2024-11-10 Estrela 2–0 Nacional
League standing · 2025/26
Nacional#14 pos34 pts34 pl-8 GD
Estrela#15 pos30 pts34 pl-18 GD
Goals per game
Nacional scored1.09
Estrela scored1.12
Nacional conceded1.32
Estrela conceded1.65

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Nacional v Estrela?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Nacional v Estrela was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Estrela?
In their last 3 meetings, Nacional won 0, Estrela won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 1.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Nacional and Estrela?
Recent form — Nacional 0W 1D 4L; Estrela 1W 2D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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