This Matchweek

AC MilanLecce

AC Milan v Lecce result

Full-time · AC Milan 3–0 Lecce

Serie A · · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: AC Milan · Lecce · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

AC Milan 3–0 Lecce — AC Milan won this Serie A match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.14 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5059 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,943 of 2,598 times (74.8%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said AC Milan: 2.48 to 0.22 in expected goals, from 10 shots to 6, ahead on xG from the eighth minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

AC Milan beat Lecce 3–0 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A on Sunday 20 September. AC Milan are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Lecce, every meeting checked.

The goals

AC Milan led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — AC Milan: Christian Pulišić (14’, assisted by Strahinja Pavlović), A. Rabiot (61’, assisted by Gonçalo Ramos) and Diego Moreira (73’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Christian Pulišić’s goal on 14 minutes.

Discipline

Federico La Penna, Italy showed one yellow card — against 4.0 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Lecce: Danilo Veiga (58’).

What it changes

AC Milan move down from fourth to fifth (five league matches played). AC Milan have scored 10 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 5 games). AC Milan have conceded four goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Lecce move down from 10th to 12th (five league matches played). Lecce have scored five goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 5 games). Lecce have conceded 10 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

AC Milan’s three-goal margin was the biggest of round 5, across 10 matches.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, A. Rabiot (AC Milan) 7.1, Christian Pulišić (AC Milan) 6.5 and Diego Moreira (AC Milan) 6.5 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, AC Milan or Lecce (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (3938 of 5059).

Next up

AC Milan next travel to Genoa on 8 November 2026.

Lecce next travel to Lazio on 22 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for AC Milan: Genoa v AC Milan, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Lecce: Lazio v Lecce, Sunday 22 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: AC Milan 3–0 Lecce · Serie A
  • Venue: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza · Milano
  • Referee: Federico La Penna, Italy
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): AC Milan 6 · draws 0 · Lecce 0 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: AC Milan 2W 2D 1L · Lecce 2W 0D 3L

AC Milan 3–0 Lecce (Serie A): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 4 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 1.13
Goals
against 1.5 / 1.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
4.13 / 4
Corners
against 3.25 / 4.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.88 / 3.88
Shots on target
against 4.38 / 6.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.13 / 2.13
Cards
against 2.25 / 0.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4 yellows
Referee · Federico La Penna, Italy
28.17 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 6 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 16 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAC Milan for / againstLineLecce for / against
Goals scored
1.5 for · 1.5 against n 8
3our book
1.13 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
4.13 for · 3.25 against n 8
9.5standard
4 for · 4.5 against n 8
Shots
14.38 for · 11.88 against n 8
19.5standard
10.25 for · 15.38 against n 8
Shots on target
4.88 for · 4.38 against n 8
8.5standard
3.88 for · 6.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.38 for · 11.5 against n 8
21.5standard
11 for · 10.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2.13 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
2.13 for · 0.75 against n 8

Referee: Federico La Penna, Italy — 4 yellow cards a game, 0.17 red cards, 28.17 fouls over 6 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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AC Milan

AC Milan Goalkeeper

AC Milan — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Maignan590450 min122.4 /9051 /9000 /90
AC Milan — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Maignan n 890
36/3

AC Milan Defensive

AC Milan — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
K. De Winter590450 min81.6 /9051 /9040.8 /90224.4 /9081.6 /9010.2 /90
S. Pavlović590450 min132.6 /9010.2 /9030.6 /90346.8 /9061.2 /9030.6 /90
Mario Gila577386 min61.4 /9030.7 /9010.2 /90163.7 /9061.4 /9010.2 /90
F. Terracciano14545 min00 /9000 /9000 /9012 /9000 /9000 /90
Y. Musah581405 min30.7 /9040.9 /9000 /90163.6 /9020.4 /9000 /90
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AC Milan — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. Pavlović n 890
1.56/3
0.85/1
Danilo Veiga
K. De Winter n 886
1.37/2
0.42/1
Danilo Veiga
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
0.32/0
—
Gonçalo Ramos n 589
1.85/2
13/2
—
Y. Musah n 871.1
0.84/1
1.96/5
—
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AC Milan — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
S. Pavlović n 890
2.48/5
K. De Winter n 886
1.77/3
Gonçalo Ramos n 589
1.64/3
Y. Musah n 871.1
0.95/1
S. Chukwueze n 860.5
1.55/2
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AC Milan Attacking

AC Milan — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Gonçalo Ramos589445 min10.2 /9000 /90142.8 /9040.8 /9020.4 /9020.4 /90
A. Cissè558288 min20.6 /9000 /9072.2 /9030.9 /9020.6 /9010.3 /90
R. Loftus-Cheek447189 min00 /9000 /9031.4 /9000 /9083.8 /9021 /90
A. Saelemaekers437149 min00 /9010.6 /9010.6 /9000 /9053 /9010.6 /90
Diego Moreira346139 min21.3 /9000 /9042.6 /9021.3 /9000 /9010.6 /90
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AC Milan — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
S. Pavlović n 890
0.95/2
0.32/0
K. De Winter n 886
0.42/1
00/0
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
00/0
Gonçalo Ramos n 589
2.84/3
0.82/1
Y. Musah n 871.1
0.53/0
00/0
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AC Milan — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Pavlović n 890
0.11/0
00/0
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
00/0
K. De Winter n 886
00/0
00/0
Gonçalo Ramos n 589
0.21/0
00/0
Y. Musah n 871.1
00/0
00/0
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Lecce

Lecce Goalkeeper

Lecce — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
W. Falcone590450 min295.8 /9091.8 /9000 /90
Lecce — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lecce before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
W. Falcone n 890
4.97/7

Lecce Defensive

Lecce — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Danilo Veiga590450 min122.4 /9061.2 /9020.4 /90234.6 /9040.8 /9020.4 /90
Tiago Gabriel566331 min71.9 /9061.6 /9010.3 /90256.8 /9020.5 /9000 /90
Kialonda Gaspar484336 min154 /9030.8 /9010.3 /90256.7 /9051.3 /9020.5 /90
A. Gallo479315 min41.1 /9030.9 /9030.9 /9072 /9010.3 /9000 /90
J. Siebert474294 min61.8 /9072.1 /9010.3 /90144.3 /9010.3 /9010.3 /90
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Lecce — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lecce before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Danilo Veiga n 886.9
16/1
1.36/3
K. De Winter
W. Falcone n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
L. Coulibaly n 889.8
1.16/3
1.96/5
—
S. Pierotti n 876.4
1.56/3
0.32/0
—
Tiago Gabriel n 875.1
0.93/3
15/2
—
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Lecce — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lecce before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Danilo Veiga n 886.9
2.58/6
L. Coulibaly n 889.8
1.35/3
S. Pierotti n 876.4
2.27/5
Tiago Gabriel n 875.1
1.66/4
O. Ngom n 862.8
2.26/3
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Lecce Attacking

Lecce — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
S. Pierotti572362 min00 /9000 /9030.7 /9020.5 /9030.7 /9051.2 /90
K. N’Dri556278 min00 /9000 /9051.6 /9010.3 /9020.6 /9041.3 /90
N. Štulić552261 min00 /9000 /9062.1 /9020.7 /9010.3 /9000 /90
W. Geubbels371212 min00 /9000 /9083.4 /9031.3 /9031.3 /9000 /90
A. Ahmed Fatah32679 min00 /9000 /9011.1 /9000 /9011.1 /9066.8 /90
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Lecce — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lecce before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Danilo Veiga n 886.9
0.11/0
00/0
W. Falcone n 890
00/0
00/0
L. Coulibaly n 889.8
15/2
0.42/1
S. Pierotti n 876.4
0.95/1
0.43/0
Tiago Gabriel n 875.1
0.64/0
0.32/0
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Lecce — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lecce before kick-off, to 16 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Danilo Veiga n 886.9
00/0
0.11/0
W. Falcone n 890
00/0
00/0
L. Coulibaly n 889.8
0.31/1
0.11/0
S. Pierotti n 876.4
00/0
0.11/0
Tiago Gabriel n 875.1
0.32/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
AC MilanLecce
69%Possession31%
2.19Expected goals (xG)0.21
10Shots6
4Shots on target3
2Shots off target1
4Blocked shots2
8Shots inside the box4
2Corners3
4Offsides1
9Fouls15
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
3Saves1
698Passes306
91%Pass accuracy82%

AC Milan Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Maignan9000000007.9
Mario Gila9000000307.2
K. De Winter9000100106.6
S. Pavlović9001111108
A. Rabiot9010110108.3
Gonçalo Ramos9001002006.7
S. Chukwueze8700000306.7
L. Modrić7600001207.5
P. Estupiñán7600100106.9
C. Pulišić6910112008.5
A. Saelemaekers6900001507.7
Diego Moreira sub2110110108.3
R. Loftus-Cheek sub2100000106.3
Y. Musah sub1400000006.6
D. Bartesaghi sub1400000006.5
F. Camarda sub30000000–

Lecce Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
W. Falcone9000000105.9
Danilo Veiga90000015Y5.9
J. Siebert9000000606.6
Kialonda Gaspar9000110206.5
A. Gallo9000001306.5
L. Coulibaly9000000006.3
S. Pierotti8200000106
I. Ilić7000100106.9
Y. Maleh7000000306.3
Joël Monteiro7000000206.7
N. Štulić4500001106.6
Paco Esteban sub4500000106.2
O. Ngom sub2000111206.3
M. Kaba sub2000000106.2
A. Ahmed Fatah sub2000110006.9
K. N’Dri sub800000006.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind AC Milan v Lecce — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AC MilanWWDDL
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
LecceLWLLW
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
AC Milan 6 · 0 draws · Lecce 0 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2026-01-18 AC Milan 1–0 Lecce
  • 2025-09-23 AC Milan 3–0 Lecce
  • 2025-08-29 Lecce 0–2 AC Milan
  • 2025-03-08 Lecce 2–3 AC Milan
  • 2024-09-27 AC Milan 3–0 Lecce
  • 2024-04-06 AC Milan 3–0 Lecce
League standing · 2026/27
AC Milan#5 pos21 pts10 pl+9 GD
Lecce#14 pos9 pts10 pl-10 GD
Goals per game
AC Milan scored2.1
Lecce scored1.1
AC Milan conceded1.2
Lecce conceded2.1

Shot Map and Expected Goals

AC Milan 2.48 xG from 10 shots, Lecce 0.22 from 6. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Koni de Winter 38' · 0.65 xGEstupiñán 71' · 0.29 xGStrahinja Pavlovic 41' · 0.15 xGStrahinja Pavlovic 56' · 0.10 xGLassana Coulibaly 85' · 0.07 xGEstupiñán 54' · 0.06 xGChristian Pulisic 42' · 0.05 xGAlexis Saelemaekers 8' · 0.05 xGKialonda Gaspar 23' · 0.05 xGAmar Ahmed Fatah 83' · 0.05 xGIvan Ilic 9' · 0.04 xGOumar Ngom 80' · 0.01 xGJoël Monteiro 8' · 0.01 xGDiego Moreira 72' · 0.45 xG · goalAdrien Rabiot 60' · 0.38 xG · goalChristian Pulisic 13' · 0.29 xG · goal
AC Milan (attacking right)Lecce (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
AC Milan1032.48
Lecce600.22

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, AC Milan led on xG, 1.20 to 0.09. At full time, AC Milan led on xG, 2.48 to 0.22. The widest gap was 2.39 xG to AC Milan, in the 72nd minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.51.200′15′30′45′60′75′90′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - AC Milan 13 minGoal - AC Milan 60 minGoal - AC Milan 72 min
AC Milan 2.48 xGLecce 0.22 xGdots = goals · 16 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for AC Milan v Lecce?
TACTIX’s free model pick for AC Milan v Lecce was Home or Away (best price 1.14 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Lecce?
In their last 6 meetings, AC Milan won 6, Lecce won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of AC Milan and Lecce?
Recent form — AC Milan 2W 2D 1L; Lecce 2W 0D 3L.

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