This Matchweek

AS RomaAtalanta

AS Roma v Atalanta result

Full-time · AS Roma 2–1 Atalanta

Serie A · · Stadio Olimpico

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: AS Roma · Atalanta · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

AS Roma 2–1 Atalanta — AS Roma won this Serie A match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.93 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.5% of 505 landed (95% range 64.3–72.4%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 561 of 877 times (64%), against an average rating of 67.6%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said AS Roma: 3.57 to 0.77 in expected goals, from 39 shots to 6, ahead on xG from the second minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

AS Roma beat Atalanta 2–1 at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A on Saturday 5 September. AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 10 matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Atalanta: Éderson (47’); AS Roma: Hermoso (89’, assisted by M. Soulé) and M. Soulé (90’, assisted by Paulo Dybala). Gianluca Gaetano (90+7’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with M. Soulé’s goal on 90 minutes.

Discipline

A. Colombo showed one yellow card and one red — against 3.9 yellows a game across the last 9 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Atalanta: Raoul Bellanova (84’).

What it changes

AS Roma stay first after this result (three league matches played).

Atalanta move down from fifth to seventh (three league matches played).

AS Roma have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Hermoso (AS Roma) 10.4, M. Soulé (AS Roma) 10.1 and Paulo Dybala (AS Roma) 7.2 led the match.

Head-to-head

Atalanta are unbeaten in the last six meetings with AS Roma, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

AS Roma next travel to Parma on 22 November 2026.

Atalanta next travel to Monza on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for AS Roma: Parma v AS Roma, Sunday 22 November — the preview. Next for Atalanta: Monza v Atalanta, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: AS Roma 2–1 Atalanta · Serie A
  • Venue: Stadio Olimpico · Rome
  • Referee: A. Colombo
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): AS Roma 0 · draws 2 · Atalanta 4 · 2.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: AS Roma 5W 0D 0L · Atalanta 3W 2D 0L

AS Roma 2–1 Atalanta (Serie A): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 19 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.75 / 1
Goals
against 0.38 / 0.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.13 / 3.38
Corners
against 4.38 / 3.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
6.88 / 4.63
Shots on target
against 2.5 / 4.75 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.63 / 1.25
Cards
against 2.5 / 1.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.89 yellows
Referee · A. Colombo
26.56 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 9 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 31 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAS Roma for / againstLineAtalanta for / against
Goals scored
2.75 for · 0.38 against n 8
2.5our book
1 for · 0.63 against n 8
Corners won
5.13 for · 4.38 against n 8
9.5standard
3.38 for · 3.25 against n 8
Shots
15.25 for · 7.88 against n 8
19.5standard
13 for · 13 against n 8
Shots on target
6.88 for · 2.5 against n 8
8.5standard
4.63 for · 4.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
11 for · 12.13 against n 8
21.5standard
13 for · 10.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.63 for · 2.5 against n 8
3.5standard
1.25 for · 1.5 against n 8

Referee: A. Colombo — 3.89 yellow cards a game, 0.11 red cards, 26.56 fouls over 9 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

Create free account Try Pro for £1.00 then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

AS Roma

AS Roma Goalkeeper

AS Roma — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Svilar290180 min63 /9000 /9000 /90
AS Roma — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AS Roma before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Svilar n 890
25/2

AS Roma Defensive

AS Roma — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
G. Mancini290180 min42 /9021 /9000 /9094.5 /9031.5 /9000 /90
Hermoso279158 min84.6 /9074 /9000 /90148 /9021.1 /9010.6 /90
D. Ghilardi19090 min55 /9000 /9000 /901212 /9011 /9000 /90
E. Ndicka19090 min33 /9011 /9000 /9077 /9033 /9000 /90
Nahuel Molina13030 min26 /9000 /9000 /9039 /9000 /9000 /90
See more players · Pro

Try Pro for £1, then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

AS Roma — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AS Roma before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
G. Mancini n 883.1
1.25/4
1.47/2
G. Scalvini
B. Cristante n 886.1
16/2
0.43/0
Éderson
M. Svilar n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
P. Dybala n 866.9
0.32/0
3.26/5
—
Hermoso n 878.1
1.66/4
0.64/0
O. Kossounou
See more players · Pro
AS Roma — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AS Roma before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
B. Cristante n 886.1
2.27/5
G. Mancini n 883.1
1.46/3
P. Dybala n 866.9
15/1
Hermoso n 878.1
2.36/5
Wesley n 880.5
1.86/4
See more players · Pro

AS Roma Attacking

AS Roma — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
P. Dybala282163 min00 /9031.7 /9063.3 /9021.1 /9084.4 /9010.6 /90
D. Malen268135 min53.3 /9000 /9096 /9064 /9021.3 /9042.7 /90
M. Soulé24896 min10.9 /9000 /9054.7 /9043.8 /9010.9 /9021.9 /90
S. Castro22345 min00 /9000 /9024 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
B. Cristante290180 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9010.5 /9010.5 /90
See more players · Pro
AS Roma — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AS Roma before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
G. Mancini n 883.1
0.53/1
0.42/1
B. Cristante n 886.1
0.42/1
00/0
M. Svilar n 890
00/0
00/0
P. Dybala n 866.9
1.95/3
15/1
Hermoso n 878.1
1.34/3
0.42/1
See more players · Pro
AS Roma — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AS Roma before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
G. Mancini n 883.1
0.42/1
0.11/0
M. Svilar n 890
00/0
00/0
B. Cristante n 886.1
00/0
00/0
P. Dybala n 866.9
00/0
1.35/2
Hermoso n 878.1
0.32/0
0.11/0
See more players · Pro

Atalanta

Atalanta Goalkeeper

Atalanta — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Carnesecchi490360 min174.3 /9010.3 /9000 /90
Atalanta — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Carnesecchi n 890
47/6

Atalanta Defensive

Atalanta — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
O. Kossounou490360 min30.8 /9030.8 /9020.5 /9061.5 /9000 /9000 /90
G. Scalvini474296 min41.2 /9020.6 /9030.9 /90123.6 /9051.5 /9000 /90
L. Bernasconi360180 min42 /9010.5 /9000 /9042 /9010.5 /9000 /90
S. Kolašinac356168 min21.1 /9010.5 /9000 /9031.6 /9021.1 /9000 /90
D. Zappacosta290180 min21 /9000 /9010.5 /9021 /9010.5 /9000 /90
See more players · Pro
Atalanta — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
G. Gaetano n 490
1.34/1
1.54/2
—
O. Kossounou n 857.1
0.42/0
0.42/0
Hermoso
M. Carnesecchi n 890
00/0
0.32/0
—
Éderson n 878.1
15/2
2.27/5
B. Cristante
G. Scalvini n 873.9
1.56/4
0.63/1
G. Mancini
See more players · Pro
Atalanta — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
G. Gaetano n 490
24/2
O. Kossounou n 857.1
15/0
Éderson n 878.1
1.97/4
G. Scalvini n 873.9
26/4
G. Raspadori n 870.6
1.34/3
See more players · Pro

Atalanta Attacking

Atalanta — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
G. Raspadori472288 min10.3 /9000 /9051.6 /9030.9 /9010.3 /9010.3 /90
N. Zalewski464257 min00 /9010.4 /9020.7 /9010.4 /9062.1 /9020.7 /90
Gianluca Scamacca453210 min10.4 /9000 /9031.3 /9031.3 /9031.3 /9000 /90
N. Krstović438150 min10.6 /9000 /9074.2 /9031.8 /9031.8 /9010.6 /90
C. De Ketelaere338115 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9032.3 /9032.3 /90
See more players · Pro
Atalanta — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
G. Gaetano n 490
0.52/0
0.52/0
O. Kossounou n 857.1
0.21/0
00/0
M. Carnesecchi n 890
00/0
00/0
Éderson n 878.1
0.94/2
0.63/1
G. Scalvini n 873.9
0.32/0
00/0
See more players · Pro
Atalanta — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
G. Gaetano n 490
00/0
0.31/0
M. Carnesecchi n 890
00/0
00/0
O. Kossounou n 857.1
00/0
00/0
Éderson n 878.1
0.11/0
0.11/0
G. Scalvini n 873.9
00/0
00/0
See more players · Pro

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
AS RomaAtalanta
67%Possession33%
2.97Expected goals (xG)0.70
39Shots6
10Shots on target2
20Shots off target3
9Blocked shots1
28Shots inside the box6
14Corners1
4Offsides4
9Fouls10
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards1
1Saves9
615Passes324
89%Pass accuracy78%

AS Roma Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
B. Cristante9000210107.5
P. Dybala9001626208.3
Hermoso9010114108.5
M. Koné9000312207.5
Wesley9000009208
M. Svilar9000000006.3
E. Ndicka6700100106.2
D. Malen6300211007.2
G. Mancini6200210006.3
E. Lulli5400001007
Rodrigo Mora5400401006.5
M. Soulé sub3611532208.6
Nahuel Molina sub3600005107.3
D. Ghilardi sub2800000207
S. Castro sub2700402006
L. Balerdi sub2300000107.2

Atalanta Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
G. Scalvini9000000306.9
O. Kossounou9000100206.9
G. Gaetano90000011R6.9
C. De Ketelaere9000002207.2
R. Bellanova90000011Y7.2
M. Carnesecchi9000000009.2
Éderson7910110007.5
S. Kolašinac7300000107.2
L. Samardžić6600101106.5
E. Elmas6600000106.5
Gianluca Scamacca4500110006.6
N. Krstović sub4500100006.5
M. Pašalić sub2400000006.2
N. Zalewski sub2400000106.3
D. Zappacosta sub1700000005.9
F. Kessie sub1100000006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind AS Roma v Atalanta — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AS RomaWWWWW
Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 3 scored / 0.4 conceded per game
AtalantaDDWWW
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 1 scored / 0.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
AS Roma 0 · 2 draws · Atalanta 4 · 2.17 goals/game
  • 2026-04-18 AS Roma 1–1 Atalanta
  • 2026-01-03 Atalanta 1–0 AS Roma
  • 2025-05-12 Atalanta 2–1 AS Roma
  • 2024-12-02 AS Roma 0–2 Atalanta
  • 2024-05-12 Atalanta 2–1 AS Roma
  • 2024-01-07 AS Roma 1–1 Atalanta
League standing · 2026/27
AS Roma#2 pos27 pts11 pl+21 GD
Atalanta#13 pos11 pts10 pl-4 GD
Goals per game
AS Roma scored2.82
Atalanta scored1.6
AS Roma conceded0.91
Atalanta conceded2

Shot Map and Expected Goals

AS Roma 3.57 xG from 39 shots, Atalanta 0.77 from 6. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Matìas Soulè Malvano 90' · 0.37 xGNikola Krstovic 58' · 0.37 xGPaulo Dybala 33' · 0.34 xGSantiago Castro 63' · 0.33 xGGianluca Mancini 13' · 0.32 xGSantiago Castro 87' · 0.32 xGLazar Samardzic 55' · 0.15 xGDonyell Malen 39' · 0.11 xGSantiago Castro 70' · 0.10 xGRodrigo Mora 40' · 0.10 xGPaulo Dybala 2' · 0.09 xGPaulo Dybala 88' · 0.09 xGPaulo Dybala 86' · 0.09 xGBryan Cristante 74' · 0.08 xGGianluca Mancini 20' · 0.08 xGGianluca Scamacca 31' · 0.07 xGSantiago Castro 91' · 0.07 xGCharles De Ketelaere 59' · 0.07 xGRodrigo Mora 42' · 0.07 xGRodrigo Mora 37' · 0.07 xGMario Hermoso 67' · 0.06 xGEvan Ndicka 43' · 0.06 xGBryan Cristante 20' · 0.06 xGKouadio Kone 41' · 0.05 xGPaulo Dybala 90' · 0.05 xGMatìas Soulè Malvano 70' · 0.05 xGMatìas Soulè Malvano 70' · 0.05 xGMatìas Soulè Malvano 61' · 0.04 xGDonyell Malen 17' · 0.04 xGKouadio Kone 53' · 0.04 xGOdilon Kossounou 50' · 0.04 xGMatìas Soulè Malvano 77' · 0.04 xGBryan Cristante 80' · 0.03 xGRodrigo Mora 26' · 0.03 xGRodrigo Mora 23' · 0.03 xGKouadio Kone 16' · 0.03 xGBryan Cristante 61' · 0.03 xGKouadio Kone 26' · 0.03 xGDonyell Malen 14' · 0.02 xGPaulo Dybala 71' · 0.02 xGMatìas Soulè Malvano 86' · 0.02 xGRodrigo Mora 28' · 0.02 xGMario Hermoso 88' · 0.09 xG · goalÉderson 46' · 0.07 xG · goalMatìas Soulè Malvano 92' · 0.06 xG · goal
AS Roma (attacking right)Atalanta (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
AS Roma3923.57
Atalanta610.77

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, AS Roma led on xG, 1.53 to 0.07. At full time, AS Roma led on xG, 3.57 to 0.77. The widest gap was 2.80 xG to AS Roma, in the 92nd minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
3.61.800′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Atalanta 46 minGoal - AS Roma 88 minGoal - AS Roma 92 min
AS Roma 3.57 xGAtalanta 0.77 xGdots = goals · 45 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

Try Pro for £1

then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for AS Roma v Atalanta?
TACTIX’s free model pick for AS Roma v Atalanta was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.93 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?
In their last 6 meetings, AS Roma won 0, Atalanta won 4 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of AS Roma and Atalanta?
Recent form — AS Roma 5W 0D 0L; Atalanta 3W 2D 0L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
Share this prediction: X · Facebook · WhatsApp · Telegram

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

Unlock all 246 predictions, advanced stats & the model v the market with ProTry Pro for £1 then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+