This Matchweek

LazioAC Milan

Lazio v AC Milan result

Full-time · Lazio 2–2 AC Milan

Serie A · · Stadio Olimpico

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Lazio · AC Milan · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Lazio 2–2 AC Milan — this Serie A match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.36 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.7% of 5142 landed (95% range 76.5–78.8%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,910 of 2,556 times (74.7%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said little between the sides: Lazio 2.36, AC Milan 2.20 in expected goals (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Lazio and AC Milan drew 2–2 at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A on Saturday 12 September. AC Milan have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Lazio led 2–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Lazio: Matteo Cancellieri (10’, assisted by Mattia Zaccagni) and Tijjani Noslin (39’); AC Milan: Diego Moreira (65’, assisted by Christian Pulišić; 67’, assisted by A. Rabiot).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Diego Moreira’s goal on 67 minutes.

Discipline

Matteo Marcenaro, Italy showed five yellow cards — against 4.4 yellows a game across the last 5 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Lazio: Reda Belahyane (63’) and Mattia Zaccagni (78’); AC Milan: Christian Pulišić (59’), Strahinja Pavlović (64’) and Mario Gila (86’).

What it changes

Lazio move up from third to first (four league matches played). Lazio have scored 24 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games). Lazio have conceded eight goals, the fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

AC Milan stay fourth after this result (four league matches played). AC Milan have scored 21 goals, the fifth-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games). AC Milan have conceded 12 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Lazio are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions. AC Milan are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Diego Moreira (AC Milan) 8.6, Mattia Zaccagni (Lazio) 7.5 and Samuel Chukwueze (AC Milan) 5.8 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Lazio or AC Milan (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.7% of the time in the last 90 days (3993 of 5142).

Next up

Lazio next travel to Napoli on 8 November 2026.

AC Milan next travel to Genoa on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Lazio: Napoli v Lazio, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for AC Milan: Genoa v AC Milan, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Lazio 2–2 AC Milan · Serie A
  • Venue: Stadio Olimpico · Rome
  • Referee: Matteo Marcenaro, Italy
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Lazio 3 · draws 1 · AC Milan 2 · 1.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Lazio 4W 0D 1L · AC Milan 3W 1D 1L

Lazio 2–2 AC Milan (Serie A): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 26 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.75 / 1.25
Goals
against 1.38 / 1.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.25
over 8 matches
4.88 / 2.75
Corners
against 3.5 / 3.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4 / 3.75
Shots on target
against 4.38 / 4.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.63 / 2.5
Cards
against 2.63 / 2.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4.4 yellows
Referee · Matteo Marcenaro, Italy
25.8 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 5 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 7 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLazio for / againstLineAC Milan for / against
Goals scored
0.75 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.25our book
1.25 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
4.88 for · 3.5 against n 8
9.5standard
2.75 for · 3.5 against n 8
Shots
12.88 for · 11.63 against n 8
19.5standard
12.13 for · 12.38 against n 8
Shots on target
4 for · 4.38 against n 8
8.5standard
3.75 for · 4.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
13.13 for · 11.5 against n 8
21.5standard
11.38 for · 11.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2.63 for · 2.63 against n 8
3.5standard
2.5 for · 2.25 against n 8

Referee: Matteo Marcenaro, Italy — 4.4 yellow cards a game, 0.4 red cards, 25.8 fouls over 5 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Lazio

Lazio Goalkeeper

Lazio — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
C. Mandas490360 min143.5 /9030.8 /9000 /90
Lazio — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lazio before kick-off, to 7 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
C. Mandas n 890
2.55/3

Lazio Defensive

Lazio — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
D. Doekhi490360 min20.5 /9020.5 /9041 /90164 /9061.5 /9000 /90
O. Provstgaard490360 min41 /9051.3 /9020.5 /90112.8 /9082 /9010.3 /90
R. Floriani Mussolini380241 min62.2 /9031.1 /9031.1 /9093.4 /9051.9 /9010.4 /90
Pedraza356169 min00 /9021.1 /9010.5 /9031.6 /9021.1 /9000 /90
Nuno Tavares277153 min10.6 /9010.6 /9000 /90105.9 /9021.2 /9000 /90
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Lazio — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lazio before kick-off, to 7 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
D. Doekhi n 490
1.53/2
0.81/1
—
O. Provstgaard n 877.4
1.56/2
0.42/1
S. Pavlović
Kenneth Taylor n 878.5
1.16/2
0.75/0
—
C. Mandas n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
M. Zaccagni n 874.6
0.84/1
2.17/5
—
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Lazio — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lazio before kick-off, to 7 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Kenneth Taylor n 878.5
1.15/1
O. Provstgaard n 877.4
14/2
D. Doekhi n 490
0.51/1
M. Zaccagni n 874.6
1.26/2
D. Frattesi n 456.3
2.44/2
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Lazio Attacking

Lazio — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
M. Zaccagni490359 min00 /9010.3 /9082 /9030.8 /90112.8 /9061.5 /90
M. Cancellieri456224 min00 /9000 /9083.2 /9020.8 /9052 /9031.2 /90
B. Dia377230 min00 /9010.4 /9010.4 /9010.4 /9041.6 /9010.4 /90
G. Isaksen342125 min00 /9000 /9021.4 /9000 /9010.7 /9000 /90
T. Noslin13737 min00 /9000 /9012.4 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
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Lazio — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lazio before kick-off, to 7 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
D. Doekhi n 490
13/1
00/0
Kenneth Taylor n 878.5
0.73/1
0.11/0
O. Provstgaard n 877.4
0.42/1
00/0
C. Mandas n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Zaccagni n 874.6
1.86/4
0.94/2
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Lazio — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lazio before kick-off, to 7 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Doekhi n 490
00/0
0.31/0
C. Mandas n 890
00/0
00/0
Kenneth Taylor n 878.5
00/0
00/0
O. Provstgaard n 877.4
00/0
00/0
M. Zaccagni n 874.6
00/0
0.21/0
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AC Milan

AC Milan Goalkeeper

AC Milan — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Maignan390270 min62 /9010.3 /9000 /90
AC Milan — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 7 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Maignan n 890
3.16/3

AC Milan Defensive

AC Milan — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
K. De Winter390270 min72.3 /9041.3 /9020.7 /90155 /9041.3 /9010.3 /90
S. Pavlović390270 min113.7 /9010.3 /9010.3 /90258.3 /9010.3 /9010.3 /90
Mario Gila384251 min20.7 /9010.4 /9010.4 /9093.2 /9031.1 /9000 /90
Y. Musah390270 min20.7 /9020.7 /9000 /90103.3 /9000 /9000 /90
S. Chukwueze370209 min41.7 /9000 /9010.4 /9093.9 /9000 /9000 /90
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AC Milan — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 7 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Gonçalo Ramos n 390
23/1
12/1
—
K. De Winter n 886
1.36/2
0.11/0
—
S. Pavlović n 890
1.15/3
0.94/2
O. Provstgaard
Y. Musah n 868.4
0.84/1
1.34/3
—
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
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AC Milan — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 7 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
S. Pavlović n 890
2.67/6
K. De Winter n 886
28/4
Gonçalo Ramos n 390
1.32/1
Y. Musah n 868.4
15/1
Mario Gila n 383.7
0.72/0
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AC Milan Attacking

AC Milan — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Gonçalo Ramos390270 min10.3 /9000 /90103.3 /9041.3 /9020.7 /9010.3 /90
A. Cissè351154 min21.2 /9000 /9052.9 /9021.2 /9010.6 /9010.6 /90
R. Loftus-Cheek348144 min00 /9000 /9031.9 /9000 /9063.8 /9021.3 /90
A. Saelemaekers339116 min00 /9010.8 /9010.8 /9000 /9032.3 /9000 /90
Y. Musah390270 min00 /9000 /9010.3 /9000 /9010.3 /9031 /90
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AC Milan — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 7 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Gonçalo Ramos n 390
3.32/2
1.32/1
S. Pavlović n 890
0.53/1
0.11/0
K. De Winter n 886
0.31/1
00/0
Y. Musah n 868.4
0.32/0
00/0
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
00/0
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AC Milan — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 7 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Gonçalo Ramos n 390
0.31/0
00/0
S. Pavlović n 890
0.11/0
00/0
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
00/0
K. De Winter n 886
00/0
00/0
Y. Musah n 868.4
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LazioAC Milan
34%Possession66%
2.01Expected goals (xG)1.25
8Shots16
6Shots on target7
2Shots off target5
0Blocked shots4
7Shots inside the box11
2Corners5
2Offsides1
15Fouls14
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
5Saves4
317Passes625
82%Pass accuracy91%

Lazio Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
C. Mandas9000000007.3
O. Provstgaard9000001006.3
Nuno Tavares9000001206.9
D. Frattesi9000201107
R. Belahyane90000004Y6.9
M. Zaccagni90013312Y7.3
R. Floriani Mussolini8400001306.7
J. Šutalo8400000006.2
Kenneth Taylor7400001106.7
M. Cancellieri5810110207.2
T. Noslin5810220007.5
G. Isaksen sub3200000006.5
A. Pinamonti sub3200000006.2
A. Guðmundsson sub1600000006.2
M. Lazzari sub1100000006.6
Diogo Leite sub1100000006.6

AC Milan Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Maignan9000000007.3
Mario Gila90001123Y7.3
K. De Winter9000000106.7
S. Pavlović90002101Y6.5
S. Chukwueze9000212007.5
A. Rabiot9001002006.2
Gonçalo Ramos8500100206.6
A. Cissè7700101006.3
L. Modrić4500001006.2
P. Estupiñán4500000006.5
R. Loftus-Cheek4500002006.7
Diego Moreira sub4520320009
Y. Musah sub4500000107
C. Pulišić sub45011140Y7.3
O. Hutchinson sub1300110006.3
F. Camarda sub1000000006.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Lazio v AC Milan — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LazioWLWWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 1.2 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
AC MilanWLWWD
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Lazio 3 · 1 draw · AC Milan 2 · 1.83 goals/game
  • 2026-03-15 Lazio 1–0 AC Milan
  • 2025-12-04 Lazio 1–0 AC Milan
  • 2025-11-29 AC Milan 1–0 Lazio
  • 2025-03-02 AC Milan 1–2 Lazio
  • 2024-08-31 Lazio 2–2 AC Milan
  • 2024-03-01 Lazio 0–1 AC Milan
League standing · 2026/27
Lazio#1 pos28 pts10 pl+16 GD
AC Milan#5 pos21 pts10 pl+9 GD
Goals per game
Lazio scored2.4
AC Milan scored2.1
Lazio conceded0.8
AC Milan conceded1.2

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Lazio 2.36 xG from 8 shots, AC Milan 2.20 from 16. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Mario Gila 44' · 0.71 xGMattia Zaccagni 20' · 0.46 xGTijjani Noslin 6' · 0.33 xGStrahinja Pavlovic 56' · 0.31 xGAlphadjo Cissè 76' · 0.28 xGMattia Zaccagni 4' · 0.12 xGChristian Pulisic 59' · 0.11 xGSamuel Chukwueze 55' · 0.10 xGDavide Frattesi 28' · 0.09 xGStrahinja Pavlovic 37' · 0.07 xGDiego Moreira 79' · 0.06 xGGonçalo Ramos 44' · 0.06 xGSamuel Chukwueze 15' · 0.06 xGDavide Frattesi 32' · 0.06 xGSamuel Chukwueze 2' · 0.03 xGDiego Moreira 50' · 0.03 xGRuben Loftus-Cheek 43' · 0.02 xGOmari Hutchinson 93' · 0.02 xGMattia Zaccagni 74' · 0.02 xGEstupiñán 19' · 0.01 xGTijjani Noslin 38' · 0.78 xG · goalMatteo Cancellieri 9' · 0.51 xG · goalDiego Moreira 64' · 0.28 xG · goalDiego Moreira 66' · 0.05 xG · goal
Lazio (attacking right)AC Milan (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Lazio822.36
AC Milan1622.20

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Lazio led on xG, 2.35 to 0.97. At full time, xG was level: Lazio 2.36, AC Milan 2.20. The widest gap was 2.17 xG to Lazio, in the 38th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.41.200′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Lazio 9 minGoal - Lazio 38 minGoal - AC Milan 64 minGoal - AC Milan 66 min
Lazio 2.36 xGAC Milan 2.20 xGdots = goals · 24 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Lazio v AC Milan?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Lazio v AC Milan was Home or Away (best price 1.36 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and AC Milan?
In their last 6 meetings, Lazio won 3, AC Milan won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 1.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Lazio and AC Milan?
Recent form — Lazio 4W 0D 1L; AC Milan 3W 1D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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