NapoliAC Milan

Napoli v AC Milan result

Full-time · Napoli 1–0 AC Milan

Serie A ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Napoli · AC Milan · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Napoli 1–0 AC Milan — Napoli won this Serie A match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 78% of 5167 landed (95% range 76.8–79.1%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,997 of 2,670 times (74.8%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said little between the sides: Napoli 0.87, AC Milan 0.81 in expected goals (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Napoli beat AC Milan 1–0 in Serie A on Monday 6 April. Napoli have scored in 11 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Napoli: Matteo Politano (79’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Matteo Politano’s goal on 79 minutes.

Discipline

D. Doveri showed two yellow cards — against 2.6 yellows a game across the last 9 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Napoli: A. Buongiorno (12’) and Matteo Politano (81’).

What it changes

Napoli stay second after this result (31 league matches played). Napoli have scored 58 goals, the fifth-most of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Napoli have conceded 36 goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

AC Milan move down from second to third (31 league matches played). AC Milan have scored 53 goals, the sixth-most of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). AC Milan have conceded 35 goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Napoli have won their last five matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Vanja Milinković-Savić (Napoli) 3.5, Koni De Winter (AC Milan) 3.1 and Leonardo Spinazzola (Napoli) 3.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Napoli or AC Milan (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 78% of the time in the last 90 days (4028 of 5167).

Next up

Napoli next host Torino on 22 November 2026.

AC Milan next travel to Genoa on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Napoli: Napoli v Torino, Sunday 22 November — the preview. Next for AC Milan: Genoa v AC Milan, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Napoli 1–0 AC Milan · Serie A
  • Referee: D. Doveri
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Napoli 3 · draws 1 · AC Milan 2 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Napoli 4W 0D 1L · AC Milan 3W 0D 2L

Napoli 1–0 AC Milan (Serie A): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 1.5
Goals
against 1.25 / 0.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.14 / 3.88
Corners
against 3.43 / 4.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
5.57 / 4.5
Shots on target
against 2.86 / 3.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.86 / 1.75
Cards
against 1.86 / 2.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
2.56 yellows
Referee · D. Doveri
22.56 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 9 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 21 March 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 21 March 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameNapoli for / againstLineAC Milan for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.25 against n 8
2.5standard
1.5 for · 0.75 against n 8
Corners won
5.14 for · 3.43 against n 7
9.5standard
3.88 for · 4.13 against n 8
Shots
12.29 for · 9.29 against n 7
19.5standard
13.63 for · 11.38 against n 8
Shots on target
5.57 for · 2.86 against n 7
8.5standard
4.5 for · 3.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.71 for · 11.57 against n 7
21.5standard
11.13 for · 11.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.86 for · 1.86 against n 7
3.5standard
1.75 for · 2.13 against n 8

Referee: D. Doveri — 2.56 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 22.56 fouls over 9 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Napoli

Napoli Goalkeeper

Napoli — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
V. Milinković-Savić30902700 min702.3 /90301 /9030.1 /90
A. Meret1090900 min191.9 /90151.5 /9000 /90
Napoli — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Napoli before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
V. Milinković-Savić n 890
2.35/4
A. Meret n 890
24/2

Napoli Defensive

Napoli — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Giovanni Di Lorenzo32862751 min491.6 /90120.4 /9080.3 /901254.1 /90411.3 /9020.1 /90
A. Buongiorno32782509 min391.4 /90421.5 /90160.6 /901425.1 /90531.9 /9020.1 /90
Juan Jesus26771993 min482.2 /90351.6 /90130.6 /90884 /90482.2 /90110.5 /90
S. Beukema22761668 min191 /90150.8 /90160.9 /90613.3 /90160.9 /9020.1 /90
Amir Rrahmani21861810 min321.6 /90231.1 /90110.5 /901226.1 /90241.2 /9030.1 /90
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Napoli — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Napoli before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. McTominay n 878.8
14/2
27/5
—
R. Højlund n 889.1
0.94/2
1.98/5
—
M. Politano n 867
0.52/1
0.72/2
—
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 882.5
1.15/2
1.25/2
—
A. Buongiorno n 886.3
2.17/5
1.46/3
S. Pavlović
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Napoli — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Napoli before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
S. McTominay n 878.8
1.35/3
R. Højlund n 889.1
00/0
M. Politano n 867
0.32/0
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 882.5
1.57/3
A. Buongiorno n 886.3
2.17/5
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Napoli Attacking

Napoli — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
R. Højlund35842952 min140.4 /9020.1 /90521.6 /90310.9 /90280.9 /90160.5 /90
David Neres23581337 min60.4 /9040.3 /90161.1 /90100.7 /90312.1 /90281.9 /90
N. Lang1946876 min10.1 /9010.1 /90101 /9040.4 /90212.2 /90171.7 /90
A. Vergara1074739 min20.2 /9020.2 /90121.5 /9060.7 /90141.7 /90121.5 /90
L. Lucca1045449 min00 /9000 /9071.4 /9030.6 /9010.2 /9030.6 /90
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Napoli — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Napoli before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
S. McTominay n 878.8
2.15/5
14/3
R. Højlund n 889.1
1.86/5
1.15/3
M. Politano n 867
1.75/3
0.83/2
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 882.5
1.15/3
0.32/0
A. Buongiorno n 886.3
0.11/0
0.11/0
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Napoli — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Napoli before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
R. Højlund n 889.1
0.53/1
00/0
S. McTominay n 878.8
0.43/0
00/0
M. Politano n 867
0.21/0
0.32/0
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 882.5
0.11/0
00/0
A. Buongiorno n 886.3
00/0
00/0
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AC Milan

AC Milan Goalkeeper

AC Milan — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Maignan33892941 min892.7 /90260.8 /9020.1 /90
P. Terracciano262124 min42.9 /9000 /9000 /90
AC Milan — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Maignan n 890
2.57/3

AC Milan Defensive

AC Milan — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
F. Tomori30832504 min672.4 /90311.1 /90240.9 /90973.5 /90351.3 /9060.2 /90
S. Pavlović30832504 min411.5 /90220.8 /9090.3 /901465.2 /90230.8 /9050.2 /90
M. Gabbia24862075 min160.7 /90120.5 /90140.6 /90743.2 /90180.8 /9030.1 /90
K. De Winter22811783 min251.3 /90100.5 /90110.6 /90733.7 /90301.5 /9020.1 /90
Zachary Athekame1142465 min81.5 /9020.4 /9000 /90214.1 /90101.9 /9030.6 /90
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AC Milan — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
0.42/1
—
A. Saelemaekers n 871.9
1.46/2
1.66/3
—
F. Tomori n 869.8
1.64/4
0.52/1
—
S. Pavlović n 876.6
1.24/3
1.56/3
A. Buongiorno
L. Modrić n 887.8
15/3
0.85/1
—
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AC Milan — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Saelemaekers n 871.9
1.36/2
F. Tomori n 869.8
2.67/7
S. Pavlović n 876.6
2.37/5
L. Modrić n 887.8
1.77/2
Y. Fofana n 867.3
2.37/4
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AC Milan Attacking

AC Milan — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Rafael Leão24671599 min100.6 /9020.1 /90372.1 /90241.4 /90171 /90201.1 /90
C. Pulišić22651432 min90.6 /9030.2 /90362.3 /90221.4 /90382.4 /90201.3 /90
C. Nkunku20571132 min60.5 /9020.2 /90211.7 /90110.9 /90141.1 /9040.3 /90
N. Füllkrug1431428 min10.2 /9000 /90102.1 /9051.1 /9051.1 /9020.4 /90
S. Giménez1170773 min10.1 /9010.1 /90222.6 /9091 /9050.6 /9030.3 /90
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AC Milan — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Saelemaekers n 871.9
0.96/0
0.21/0
S. Pavlović n 876.6
0.63/1
0.32/0
F. Tomori n 869.8
0.21/0
0.21/0
L. Modrić n 887.8
0.64/1
0.11/0
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AC Milan — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 21 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Saelemaekers n 871.9
00/0
0.21/0
S. Pavlović n 876.6
0.32/0
00/0
F. Tomori n 869.8
00/0
00/0
L. Modrić n 887.8
0.11/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
NapoliAC Milan
53%Possession47%
0.80Expected goals (xG)0.60
10Shots7
3Shots on target1
6Shots off target6
1Blocked shots0
7Shots inside the box5
4Corners3
5Offsides2
7Fouls6
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
1Saves2
522Passes466
90%Pass accuracy85%

Napoli Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
V. Milinković-Savić9000000006.3
A. Buongiorno90001001Y6.9
M. Olivera9000101007
Miguel Gutiérrez9000000006.7
A. Zambo Anguissa9000210107.2
S. Lobotka9000102007.5
S. McTominay9000100006.3
Juan Jesus8500000207.2
K. De Bruyne8500002007
L. Spinazzola7400101206.9
Giovane7000110106.6
Alisson Santos sub2000000006.7
M. Politano sub16101100Y7.5
E. Elmas sub1100000006.5
S. Beukema sub1100000006.6

AC Milan Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Maignan9000000007.2
K. De Winter9000000206.9
S. Pavlović9000200106.3
L. Modrić9000001007.2
A. Rabiot9000000206.9
D. Bartesaghi9000001007
F. Tomori8200000006.6
Y. Fofana8200111106.5
C. Nkunku7400101006.3
N. Füllkrug6300000006.7
A. Saelemaekers6200000306.9
Zachary Athekame sub2800101206.5
S. Giménez sub2700100006.5
C. Pulišić sub1600001006.3
R. Loftus-Cheek sub800000006.7
Rafael Leão sub800100006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Napoli v AC Milan — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
NapoliLWWWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1 conceded per game
AC MilanLWWLW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.2 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Napoli 3 · 1 draw · AC Milan 2 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2025-12-18 Napoli 2–0 AC Milan
  • 2025-09-28 AC Milan 2–1 Napoli
  • 2025-03-30 Napoli 2–1 AC Milan
  • 2024-10-29 AC Milan 0–2 Napoli
  • 2024-02-11 AC Milan 1–0 Napoli
  • 2023-10-29 Napoli 2–2 AC Milan
League standing · 2025/26
Napoli#2 pos76 pts38 pl+22 GD
AC Milan#5 pos70 pts38 pl+18 GD
Goals per game
Napoli scored1.53
AC Milan scored1.39
Napoli conceded0.95
AC Milan conceded0.92

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Napoli 0.87 xG from 10 shots, AC Milan 0.81 from 7. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Strahinja Pavlovic 12' · 0.50 xGGiovane 35' · 0.08 xGChristopher Nkunku 34' · 0.08 xGScott McTominay 44' · 0.08 xGLeonardo Spinazzola 22' · 0.08 xGFranck Zambo 71' · 0.07 xGAlessandro Buongiorno 36' · 0.06 xGSantiago Giménez 85' · 0.06 xGRafael Leão 89' · 0.06 xGFranck Zambo 56' · 0.06 xGMathías Olivera 53' · 0.05 xGGiovane 50' · 0.05 xGStrahinja Pavlovic 82' · 0.05 xGYoussouf Fofana 5' · 0.05 xGStanislav Lobotka 51' · 0.01 xGZachary Athekame 65' · 0.01 xGMatteo Politano 78' · 0.32 xG · goal
Napoli (attacking right)AC Milan (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Napoli1010.87
AC Milan700.81

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Napoli 0.31, AC Milan 0.63. At full time, xG was level: Napoli 0.87, AC Milan 0.81. The widest gap was 0.55 xG to AC Milan, in the 34th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
0.90.400′15′30′45′60′75′90′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Napoli 78 min
Napoli 0.87 xGAC Milan 0.81 xGdots = goals · 17 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Napoli v AC Milan?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Napoli v AC Milan was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and AC Milan?
In their last 6 meetings, Napoli won 3, AC Milan won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Napoli and AC Milan?
Recent form — Napoli 4W 0D 1L; AC Milan 3W 0D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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