This Matchweek

SassuoloAC Milan

Sassuolo v AC Milan result

Full-time · Sassuolo 1–1 AC Milan

Serie A · · MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Sassuolo · AC Milan · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Sassuolo 1–1 AC Milan — this Serie A match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.70 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.3% of 515 landed (95% range 64.2–72.2%); it had given them 75.8% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 546 of 850 times (64.2%), against an average rating of 67.6%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said AC Milan: 1.87 to 1.34 in expected goals, from 11 shots to 10, ahead on xG from the eighth minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The points were shared.

The result

Sassuolo and AC Milan drew 1–1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A on Sunday 11 October. Sassuolo have scored in eight consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — AC Milan: A. Rabiot (63’, assisted by Luka Modrić); Sassuolo: Cas Odenthal (68’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Cas Odenthal’s goal on 68 minutes.

Discipline

Francesco Fourneau, Italy showed six yellow cards — against 3.8 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Sassuolo: Domenico Berardi (64’) and Kristian Thorstvedt (90+4’); AC Milan: P. Estupiñán (41’), Koni De Winter (45+3’), Gonçalo Ramos (87’) and Strahinja Pavlović (90+1’).

What it changes

Sassuolo move down from ninth to 10th (six league matches played). Sassuolo have scored 10 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 6 games, ranked per game). Sassuolo have conceded 10 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

AC Milan move up from fifth to fourth (six league matches played). AC Milan have scored 11 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 6 games, ranked per game). AC Milan have conceded five goals, the fifth-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, A. Rabiot (AC Milan) 6.6, Diego Moreira (AC Milan) 5.5 and Arijanet Murić (Sassuolo) 5.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Sassuolo next travel to AS Roma on 7 November 2026.

AC Milan next travel to Genoa on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Sassuolo: AS Roma v Sassuolo, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for AC Milan: Genoa v AC Milan, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Sassuolo 1–1 AC Milan · Serie A
  • Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore · Reggio Emilia
  • Referee: Francesco Fourneau, Italy
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Sassuolo 2 · draws 2 · AC Milan 2 · 4.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Sassuolo 2W 2D 1L · AC Milan 2W 2D 1L

Sassuolo 1–1 AC Milan (Serie A): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 25 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 1.63
Goals
against 1.38 / 1.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
4 / 4.13
Corners
against 5.71 / 3.38 · 3 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
6.29 / 4.25
Shots on target
against 5.43 / 4.13 · 4 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.29 / 1.75
Cards
against 2 / 2 · 4 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 20 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameSassuolo for / againstLineAC Milan for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.75our book
1.63 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
4 for · 5.71 against n 7
9.5standard
4.13 for · 3.38 against n 8
Shots
15.71 for · 14.86 against n 7
19.5standard
13.13 for · 11.5 against n 8
Shots on target
6.29 for · 5.43 against n 7
8.5standard
4.25 for · 4.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
9.14 for · 11.29 against n 7
21.5standard
11.5 for · 11.25 against n 8
Cards shown
1.29 for · 2 against n 7
3.5standard
1.75 for · 2 against n 8

Referee: Francesco Fourneau, Italy.

Sassuolo

Sassuolo Goalkeeper

Sassuolo — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
A. Murić690540 min264.3 /9091.5 /9000 /90
Sassuolo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sassuolo before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Murić n 890
4.18/7

Sassuolo Defensive

Sassuolo — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Josh Doig684501 min91.6 /9071.3 /9020.4 /90173.1 /9050.9 /9000 /90
S. Cinquegrano590450 min61.2 /9040.8 /9030.6 /90163.2 /9040.8 /9000 /90
F. Leysen575376 min92.2 /9041 /9051.2 /90225.3 /9041 /9010.2 /90
S. Cinquegrano387262 min31 /9020.7 /9010.3 /9093.1 /9041.4 /9000 /90
J. Idzes387261 min00 /9020.7 /9031 /9062.1 /9041.4 /9010.3 /90
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Sassuolo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sassuolo before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
A. Laurienté n 886.8
0.65/0
1.34/3
Gonçalo Ramos
A. Murić n 890
00/0
0.32/0
—
Josh Doig n 882.1
16/1
15/2
S. Pavlović
N. Matić n 868.9
0.73/1
0.21/0
—
Kieron Bowie n 660.2
1.54/2
1.74/1
—
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Sassuolo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sassuolo before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Laurienté n 886.8
0.84/1
Josh Doig n 882.1
1.45/3
N. Matić n 868.9
1.85/4
Kieron Bowie n 660.2
14/0
Vasilije Adžić n 648.8
1.84/1
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Sassuolo Attacking

Sassuolo — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Laurienté690540 min00 /9010.2 /90152.5 /9061 /90132.2 /90111.8 /90
Kieron Bowie660361 min10.2 /9000 /90102.5 /9051.2 /9092.2 /9000 /90
B. Domínguez522108 min00 /9000 /9021.7 /9010.8 /9000 /9043.3 /90
C. Volpato469276 min20.7 /9000 /9051.6 /9051.6 /90134.2 /9020.7 /90
D. Berardi453213 min10.4 /9000 /9083.4 /9073 /9041.7 /9000 /90
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Sassuolo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sassuolo before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Laurienté n 886.8
2.67/4
15/3
A. Murić n 890
00/0
00/0
Josh Doig n 882.1
0.43/0
0.11/0
N. Matić n 868.9
0.32/0
00/0
Kieron Bowie n 660.2
2.56/3
1.24/1
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Sassuolo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sassuolo before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Laurienté n 886.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
A. Murić n 890
00/0
00/0
Josh Doig n 882.1
0.11/0
0.11/0
N. Matić n 868.9
00/0
0.21/0
Kieron Bowie n 660.2
0.21/0
00/0
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AC Milan

AC Milan Goalkeeper

AC Milan — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Maignan690540 min152.5 /9050.8 /9000 /90
AC Milan — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Maignan n 890
3.16/4

AC Milan Defensive

AC Milan — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
K. De Winter690540 min91.5 /9050.8 /9040.7 /90254.2 /9091.5 /9010.2 /90
S. Pavlović690540 min142.3 /9010.2 /9040.7 /90396.5 /9071.2 /9030.5 /90
Mario Gila679476 min91.7 /9040.8 /9010.2 /90244.5 /9061.1 /9010.2 /90
F. Terracciano14545 min00 /9000 /9000 /9012 /9000 /9000 /90
S. Chukwueze679476 min81.5 /9050.9 /9010.2 /90254.7 /9000 /9000 /90
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AC Milan — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. Pavlović n 890
1.56/3
16/2
Josh Doig
K. De Winter n 886
1.37/2
0.42/1
—
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
0.43/0
—
Gonçalo Ramos n 689.2
1.55/2
0.83/2
A. Laurienté
Mario Gila n 679.3
1.14/2
0.93/2
—
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AC Milan — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
S. Pavlović n 890
2.38/4
K. De Winter n 886
1.67/2
Gonçalo Ramos n 689.2
1.34/3
Mario Gila n 679.3
1.75/2
S. Chukwueze n 868.3
1.55/2
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AC Milan Attacking

AC Milan — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Gonçalo Ramos689535 min10.2 /9010.2 /90142.4 /9040.7 /9040.7 /9030.5 /90
A. Cissè558288 min20.6 /9000 /9072.2 /9030.9 /9020.6 /9010.3 /90
A. Saelemaekers544218 min00 /9010.4 /9010.4 /9000 /9062.5 /9020.8 /90
R. Loftus-Cheek542210 min00 /9000 /9031.3 /9000 /9083.4 /9020.9 /90
Diego Moreira440160 min31.7 /9000 /9052.8 /9031.7 /9000 /9042.3 /90
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AC Milan — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
S. Pavlović n 890
0.85/1
0.32/0
K. De Winter n 886
0.53/1
00/0
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
00/0
Gonçalo Ramos n 689.2
2.44/3
0.72/1
S. Chukwueze n 868.3
14/2
0.53/0
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AC Milan — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Pavlović n 890
00/0
0.11/0
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
00/0
K. De Winter n 886
00/0
00/0
Gonçalo Ramos n 689.2
0.21/0
0.21/0
S. Chukwueze n 868.3
00/0
0.53/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
SassuoloAC Milan
41%Possession59%
1.19Expected goals (xG)1.18
10Shots11
4Shots on target6
4Shots off target2
2Blocked shots3
4Shots inside the box10
3Corners5
1Offsides0
13Fouls11
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
5Saves3
438Passes627
87%Pass accuracy90%

Sassuolo Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Murić9000000007.7
A. Laurienté9000101107.3
Josh Doig9000100206.7
D. Ćaleta-Car9000000006.7
D. Berardi9000002207.2
D. Bakola9000100207.2
I. Van der Brempt7900001507.5
N. Matić7900001207
S. Esposito6000002406.6
Vasilije Adžić6000100106.6
F. Leysen2600000006.6
C. Odenthal sub6410110107.9
K. Thorstvedt sub3000221006.3
Kieron Bowie sub3000110006.3
L. Lipani sub1100000106.6
S. Cinquegrano sub1100000106.9

AC Milan Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Maignan9000000007.2
Gonçalo Ramos9000320106.3
A. Rabiot9010211207.9
S. Pavlović9000110306.9
Diego Moreira9000112107.6
Mario Gila9000001207
S. Chukwueze8500111006.9
C. Pulišić7800001207.2
Y. Musah7800000006.5
P. Estupiñán4500001206.9
M. Gabbia2000000006.6
K. De Winter sub7000001307
L. Modrić sub4501001107.3
A. Cissè sub1200000006.7
A. Jashari sub1200000006.7
O. Hutchinson sub1000000006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Sassuolo v AC Milan — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
SassuoloWDDWL
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
AC MilanWDDLW
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Sassuolo 2 · 2 draws · AC Milan 2 · 4.5 goals/game
  • 2026-05-03 Sassuolo 2–0 AC Milan
  • 2025-12-14 AC Milan 2–2 Sassuolo
  • 2024-12-03 AC Milan 6–1 Sassuolo
  • 2024-04-14 Sassuolo 3–3 AC Milan
  • 2023-12-30 AC Milan 1–0 Sassuolo
  • 2023-01-29 AC Milan 2–5 Sassuolo
League standing · 2026/27
Sassuolo#17 pos8 pts10 pl-10 GD
AC Milan#5 pos21 pts10 pl+9 GD
Goals per game
Sassuolo scored1.6
AC Milan scored2.1
Sassuolo conceded2.6
AC Milan conceded1.2

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Sassuolo 1.34 xG from 10 shots, AC Milan 1.87 from 11. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Adrien Rabiot 31' · 0.56 xGGonçalo Ramos 42' · 0.53 xGKristian Thorstvedt 65' · 0.50 xGSamuel Chukwueze 70' · 0.35 xGGonçalo Ramos 16' · 0.10 xGKristian Thorstvedt 93' · 0.09 xGChristian Pulisic 51' · 0.07 xGDiego Moreira 48' · 0.06 xGDiego Moreira 8' · 0.06 xGStrahinja Pavlovic 50' · 0.05 xGKieron Bowie 65' · 0.05 xGKieron Bowie 66' · 0.05 xGJosh Doig 60' · 0.04 xGVasilije Adzic 20' · 0.04 xGGonçalo Ramos 42' · 0.03 xGGonçalo Ramos 58' · 0.02 xGArmand Lauriente 22' · 0.01 xGDarryl Bakola 7' · 0.01 xGDomenico Berardi 9' · 0.01 xGCas Odenthal 67' · 0.53 xG · goalAdrien Rabiot 62' · 0.04 xG · goal
Sassuolo (attacking right)AC Milan (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Sassuolo1011.34
AC Milan1111.87

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, AC Milan led on xG, 1.28 to 0.08. At full time, AC Milan led on xG, 1.87 to 1.34. The widest gap was 1.40 xG to AC Milan, in the 58th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.90.900′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - AC Milan 62 minGoal - Sassuolo 67 min
Sassuolo 1.34 xGAC Milan 1.87 xGdots = goals · 21 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Sassuolo v AC Milan?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Sassuolo v AC Milan was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.70 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and AC Milan?
In their last 6 meetings, Sassuolo won 2, AC Milan won 2 and there were 2 draws, averaging 4.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Sassuolo and AC Milan?
Recent form — Sassuolo 2W 2D 1L; AC Milan 2W 2D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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