AEK Athens FCReal Madrid

AEK Athens FC v Real Madrid result

Full-time · AEK Athens FC 2–3 Real Madrid

UEFA Champions League · · OPAP Arena

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: AEK Athens FC · Real Madrid

The model’s pre-match pick

AEK Athens FC 2–3 Real Madrid — Real Madrid won this UEFA Champions League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.30 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Real Madrid won 3–2 at OPAP Arena in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November. Real Madrid have scored in 11 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — AEK Athens FC: Aboubakary Koita (12’, assisted by Luka Jović) and Stavros Pilios (75’, assisted by Aboubakary Koita); Real Madrid: Jude Bellingham (32’, assisted by Marc Cucurella), Kylian Mbappé (78’, assisted by Denzel Dumfries) and F. Valverde (90+2’, assisted by Brahim Díaz). Aboubakary Koita (90+5’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s six key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Aboubakary Koita’s red card on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: AEK Athens FC 0.87, Real Madrid 3.45, from 9 shots to 24 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — AEK Athens FC: K. Arriaga (34’); Real Madrid: Marc Cucurella (65’).

What it changes

AEK Athens FC have scored nine goals, the 34th-most (shared) of the 81 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 6 games, ranked per game). AEK Athens FC have conceded 11 goals, the 36th-most of the 81 clubs.

Real Madrid have scored 13 goals, the fifth-most of the 81 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 4 games, ranked per game). Real Madrid have conceded seven goals, the 40th-fewest (shared) of the 81 clubs.

Real Madrid have won their last seven matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Aboubakary Koita (AEK Athens FC) 9.3, Eduardo Camavinga (Real Madrid) 7.9 and Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) 7.8 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

AEK Athens FC next host Levadiakos on 8 November 2026.

Real Madrid next travel to Valencia on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for AEK Athens FC: AEK Athens FC v Levadiakos, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Real Madrid: Valencia v Real Madrid, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: AEK Athens FC 2–3 Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League
  • Venue: OPAP Arena · Athens
  • Referee: Maurizio Mariani
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: AEK Athens FC 2W 0D 3L · Real Madrid 5W 0D 0L

AEK Athens FC 2–3 Real Madrid (UEFA Champions League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 6 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 2.75
Goals
against 1.5 / 1.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 4
over 8 matches
5.75 / 5.5
Corners
against 4.88 / 3.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.5 / 6.25
Shots on target
against 3.63 / 5.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.88 / 2.25
Cards
against 2.38 / 2.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 1 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 1 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAEK Athens FC for / againstLineReal Madrid for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.5 against n 8
4our book
2.75 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
5.75 for · 4.88 against n 8
9.5standard
5.5 for · 3.25 against n 8
Shots
16.75 for · 11.63 against n 8
19.5standard
15 for · 13.5 against n 8
Shots on target
4.5 for · 3.63 against n 8
8.5standard
6.25 for · 5.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.13 for · 13.13 against n 8
21.5standard
9 for · 14.88 against n 8
Cards shown
1.88 for · 2.38 against n 8
3.5standard
2.25 for · 2.38 against n 8

Referee: Maurizio Mariani.

AEK Athens FC

AEK Athens FC Goalkeeper

AEK Athens FC — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
A. Brignoli890720 min172.1 /9020.3 /9000 /90
T. Strakosha590450 min112.2 /9010.2 /9000 /90
AEK Athens FC — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AEK Athens FC before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Brignoli n 890
2.15/4
T. Strakosha n 891
2.26/3

AEK Athens FC Defensive

AEK Athens FC — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Filipe Relvas13901170 min80.6 /90221.7 /9040.3 /90544.2 /9040.3 /9000 /90
H. Moukoudi13901170 min100.8 /90131 /9080.6 /90372.8 /90141.1 /9020.2 /90
Stavros Pilios13891160 min292.3 /90141.1 /9030.2 /90715.5 /90100.8 /9010.1 /90
L. Rota12861032 min252.2 /90141.2 /9030.3 /90443.8 /90171.5 /9040.3 /90
M. Todorski14545 min48 /9012 /9000 /90510 /9024 /9000 /90
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AEK Athens FC — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AEK Athens FC before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
H. Moukoudi n 890
1.46/3
0.32/0
Marc Cucurella
Filipe Relvas n 890
0.42/1
0.11/0
Marc Cucurella
Stavros Pilios n 888.8
0.52/2
1.36/3
Marc Cucurella
R. Marin n 873.8
1.25/3
1.44/4
—
L. Jović n 878.5
0.73/2
1.76/4
J. Bellingham
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AEK Athens FC — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AEK Athens FC before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
H. Moukoudi n 890
0.94/2
Filipe Relvas n 890
0.95/2
Stavros Pilios n 888.8
1.97/3
R. Marin n 873.8
2.15/5
L. Jović n 878.5
0.32/0
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AEK Athens FC Attacking

AEK Athens FC — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
L. Jović1376992 min50.5 /9000 /90242.2 /90111 /90151.4 /9050.5 /90
B. Varga1067674 min70.9 /9000 /90162.1 /9091.2 /9070.9 /9030.4 /90
Zini1051511 min30.5 /9010.2 /90203.5 /90111.9 /9071.2 /9081.4 /90
R. Marin13781008 min30.3 /9040.4 /90191.7 /9090.8 /90302.7 /90100.9 /90
Lovro Majer1274888 min10.1 /9040.4 /90131.3 /9050.5 /90262.6 /90121.2 /90
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AEK Athens FC — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AEK Athens FC before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
H. Moukoudi n 890
1.36/3
0.32/0
Filipe Relvas n 890
0.54/0
0.32/0
Stavros Pilios n 888.8
0.54/0
0.32/0
R. Marin n 873.8
1.47/2
0.64/0
L. Jović n 878.5
1.76/5
0.94/2
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AEK Athens FC — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AEK Athens FC before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
H. Moukoudi n 890
0.32/0
00/0
Filipe Relvas n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Stavros Pilios n 888.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
R. Marin n 873.8
0.21/0
0.21/0
L. Jović n 878.5
0.31/1
00/0
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Real Madrid

Real Madrid Goalkeeper

Real Madrid — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Thibaut Courtois13901170 min463.5 /9090.7 /9000 /90
A. Lunin19090 min55 /9000 /9000 /90
Real Madrid — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Madrid before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Thibaut Courtois n 890
3.86/6
A. Lunin n 890
3.16/6

Real Madrid Defensive

Real Madrid — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Marc Cucurella1372932 min323.1 /90121.2 /9060.6 /90464.4 /90131.3 /9000 /90
I. Konaté12901080 min181.5 /9040.3 /9070.6 /90363 /90131.1 /9040.3 /90
Dean Huijsen1187952 min141.3 /90232.2 /9060.6 /90333.1 /90111 /9020.2 /90
D. Dumfries874591 min121.8 /9040.6 /9020.3 /90213.2 /9040.6 /9010.2 /90
A. Rüdiger681486 min30.6 /9020.4 /9061.1 /90122.2 /9040.7 /9010.2 /90
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Real Madrid — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Madrid before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Kylian Mbappé n 889
0.43/0
27/6
—
J. Bellingham n 877.6
0.74/1
3.58/6
L. Jović
Thibaut Courtois n 890
00/0
00/0
—
F. Valverde n 880.3
0.74/1
0.63/1
—
Marc Cucurella n 874.1
25/4
0.32/0
Stavros Pilios
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Real Madrid — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Madrid before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Kylian Mbappé n 889
0.11/0
J. Bellingham n 877.6
2.26/4
F. Valverde n 880.3
1.77/2
Marc Cucurella n 874.1
3.87/7
I. Konaté n 890
1.46/3
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Real Madrid Attacking

Real Madrid — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Kylian Mbappé14891251 min151.1 /9030.2 /90574.1 /90402.9 /90221.6 /90352.5 /90
J. Bellingham14811136 min40.3 /9030.2 /90241.9 /90121 /90262.1 /90322.5 /90
F. Valverde13821071 min10.1 /9020.2 /9090.8 /9040.3 /90110.9 /9030.3 /90
A. Güler1264766 min20.2 /9050.6 /90222.6 /90121.4 /90445.2 /90131.5 /90
Y. Diomande1260722 min40.5 /9040.5 /90141.7 /9050.6 /90141.7 /90374.6 /90
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Real Madrid — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Madrid before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Kylian Mbappé n 889
37/7
1.97/5
J. Bellingham n 877.6
1.44/3
0.41/1
Thibaut Courtois n 890
00/0
00/0
F. Valverde n 880.3
0.84/2
0.32/0
Marc Cucurella n 874.1
0.21/0
00/0
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Real Madrid — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Madrid before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Kylian Mbappé n 889
16/2
0.32/0
J. Bellingham n 877.6
0.11/0
0.11/0
Thibaut Courtois n 890
00/0
00/0
F. Valverde n 880.3
00/0
0.11/0
Marc Cucurella n 874.1
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
AEK Athens FCReal Madrid
30%Possession70%
0.87Expected goals (xG)3.45
9Shots24
5Shots on target8
2Shots off target9
2Blocked shots7
6Shots inside the box17
0Corners7
0Offsides2
9Fouls16
1Yellow cards1
1Red cards0
5Saves3
275Passes630

AEK Athens FC Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Brignoli9000000006.6
K. Arriaga90000000Y6.3
A. Koita90113114R7.5
H. Moukoudi9000110006.3
L. Rota9000000406.1
Filipe Relvas9000000006.6
Stavros Pilios9010111006.9
L. Jović8801112007.2
M. Gaćinović6000111106.7
Kaan Kairinen6000000005.8
Lovro Majer5300002406.8
Zini3700001406.7
B. Varga3000000006.1
R. Marin3000200005.9
O. Zubkov200000005.8

Real Madrid Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Rüdiger9000000006.6
Kylian Mbappé9010732008.2
Éder Militão9000210306.9
D. Dumfries9001112106.8
Eduardo Camavinga9000002907
Thibaut Courtois9000000006.2
J. Bellingham8610311208.2
Vinícius Júnior8100302006.4
Marc Cucurella81012124Y6.3
Bernardo Silva6700102206.5
Y. Diomande6700102206.6
Endrick2300202006.9
F. Valverde2310113007.9
Álvaro Fernández900001006.1
Brahim Díaz901101006.2
Carlos Espí400000006.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind AEK Athens FC v Real Madrid — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AEK Athens FCWLLWL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 2 scored / 2 conceded per game
Real MadridWWWWW
Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 3.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
League standing · 2026/27
AEK Athens FC#29 pos3 pts4 pl-6 GD
Real Madrid#2 pos12 pts4 pl+6 GD
Goals per game
AEK Athens FC scored1.25
Real Madrid scored3.25
AEK Athens FC conceded2.75
Real Madrid conceded1.75

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for AEK Athens FC v Real Madrid?
TACTIX’s free model pick for AEK Athens FC v Real Madrid was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.30 at Betano).
What is the recent form of AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid?
Recent form — AEK Athens FC 2W 0D 3L; Real Madrid 5W 0D 0L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

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