AZ Alkmaar v Sturm Graz prediction

UEFA Europa League · Thu, 10 Dec 2026 17:45 GMT · AFAS Stadion

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 16:53 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX’s free model pick for AZ Alkmaar v Sturm Graz, UEFA Europa League on Thu, 10 Dec 2026 17:45 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

AZ Alkmaar host Sturm Graz in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 10 December (kick-off 17:45 UK).

The key numbers

Sturm Graz have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Eight of AZ Alkmaar’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of AZ Alkmaar’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, AZ Alkmaar have four wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.86 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.43.

Seven of Sturm Graz’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in seven of Sturm Graz’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Sturm Graz have two wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 1.17 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.67.

AZ Alkmaar have lost their last three matches in all competitions. Sturm Graz are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. AZ Alkmaar (14th) and Sturm Graz (24th) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have AZ Alkmaar the stronger side, 280 rating points above Sturm Graz (AZ Alkmaar 1702, Sturm Graz 1422, after at least 40 rated matches each).

Team news

Predicted AZ Alkmaar XI (4-2-3-1): J. De Busser, L. Schouten, M. de Wit, W. Hoedt, E. Dijkstra, P. Koopmeiners, D. Kwakman, V. Byskov, R. Daal, W. Patati, M. Meerdink — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Ro-Zangelo Daal (5.3 per match over 15 appearances, five goals and one assist) and Peer Koopmeiners (4.4 per match over 15 appearances, two goals and one assist) have been AZ Alkmaar’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for AZ Alkmaar (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Ro-Zangelo Daal averages 2.3 key passes per 90 over 1204 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances. Peer Koopmeiners averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 1345 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Sturm Graz XI (5-3-2): A. Helac, J. Quarshie, P. Koller, A. Malic, P. Petrović, L. Balbo, J. Stankovic, L. Weinhandl, J. Hödl, S. Seidl, O. Diakité — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Emran Soglo (5.1 per match over nine appearances, one goal and one assist) and Oumar Diakité (4.9 per match over 10 appearances, 10 goals) have been Sturm Graz’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Sturm Graz (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Emran Soglo averages 3.8 tackles per 90 over 638 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last nine appearances. Oumar Diakité averages 4.3 shots per 90 over 590 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Thu, 10 Dec 2026 17:45 GMT · UEFA Europa League · AFAS Stadion
Recent form: AZ Alkmaar 1W 1D 3L · Sturm Graz 2W 2D 1L

AZ Alkmaar v Sturm Graz (UEFA Europa League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 1.75

Goals

against 1.25 / 1.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5.38 / 6.63

Corners

against 3.38 / 3.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5.38 / 5

Shots on target

against 3.63 / 4.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2 / 2.38

Cards

against 2.13 / 1.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 5 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	AZ Alkmaar for / against	Line	Sturm Graz for / against
Goals scored	1.25 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.75 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.38 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	6.63 for · 3.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	14.88 for · 9.75 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	17.5 for · 13.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.38 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	14.5 for · 13.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	14.38 for · 11.88 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.38 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar Goalkeeper

AZ Alkmaar — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Jari De Busser	14	901260 min	302.1 /90	50.4 /90	00 /90

AZ Alkmaar — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Jari De Busser n 8	90	2.3 5/4

AZ Alkmaar Defensive

AZ Alkmaar — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
L. Schouten	13	841091 min	282.3 /90	121 /90	60.5 /90	665.4 /90	171.4 /90	20.2 /90
W. Goes	12	82982 min	232.1 /90	222 /90	40.4 /90	555 /90	111 /90	20.2 /90
E. Dijkstra	12	77928 min	171.6 /90	80.8 /90	00 /90	383.7 /90	50.5 /90	10.1 /90
M. Chávez	10	80801 min	252.8 /90	40.4 /90	20.2 /90	455.1 /90	131.5 /90	10.1 /90
M. de Wit	7	60423 min	112.3 /90	00 /90	10.2 /90	173.6 /90	61.3 /90	10.2 /90
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AZ Alkmaar — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Jari De Busser n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
P. Koopmeiners n 8	90	2.4 8/6	0.6 5/0	—
R. Daal n 8	75.4	0.6 4/0	2.1 7/5	—
L. Schouten n 8	80.1	1.8 7/4	0.3 2/0	—
Mexx Meerdink n 8	78.6	2.1 6/5	1.3 6/3	—
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AZ Alkmaar — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
P. Koopmeiners n 8	90	3 8/6
R. Daal n 8	75.4	2.1 7/4
L. Schouten n 8	80.1	2.4 8/5
Mexx Meerdink n 8	78.6	0.6 3/1
W. Goes n 8	77.8	2.2 7/3
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AZ Alkmaar Attacking

AZ Alkmaar — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Mexx Meerdink	13	801042 min	60.5 /90	10.1 /90	312.7 /90	171.5 /90	40.3 /90	90.8 /90
A. Oufkir	8	46367 min	00 /90	00 /90	71.7 /90	30.7 /90	71.7 /90	112.7 /90
B. Kovacs	3	56168 min	00 /90	00 /90	42.1 /90	10.5 /90	31.6 /90	10.5 /90
J. Hornkamp	2	3264 min	22.8 /90	00 /90	57 /90	57 /90	34.2 /90	00 /90
T. Parrott	1	3333 min	00 /90	00 /90	12.7 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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AZ Alkmaar — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Jari De Busser n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
P. Koopmeiners n 8	90	1.1 6/2	0.4 3/0
R. Daal n 8	75.4	1.8 7/5	0.6 4/0
L. Schouten n 8	80.1	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
Mexx Meerdink n 8	78.6	2.4 8/4	1.6 8/3
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AZ Alkmaar — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AZ Alkmaar before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Jari De Busser n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
P. Koopmeiners n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
R. Daal n 8	75.4	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
L. Schouten n 8	80.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
Mexx Meerdink n 8	78.6	0.6 4/0	0 0/0
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Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz Goalkeeper

Sturm Graz — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Daniil Khudyakov	13	861116 min	433.5 /90	90.7 /90	00 /90
A. Helac	7	86602 min	192.8 /90	40.6 /90	00 /90

Sturm Graz — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sturm Graz before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Daniil Khudyakov n 8	82.6	3.3 6/5
A. Helac n 7	86	2.8 5/4

Sturm Graz Defensive

Sturm Graz — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Heil	16	851353 min	392.6 /90	251.7 /90	30.2 /90	795.3 /90	161.1 /90	50.3 /90
Albert Vallci	12	76906 min	202 /90	40.4 /90	70.7 /90	535.3 /90	101 /90	30.3 /90
A. Malic	11	77849 min	222.3 /90	131.4 /90	60.6 /90	565.9 /90	151.6 /90	10.1 /90
Paul-Friedrich Koller	10	89890 min	60.6 /90	141.4 /90	70.7 /90	505.1 /90	141.4 /90	10.1 /90
Joshua Quarshie	10	87869 min	80.8 /90	80.8 /90	40.4 /90	353.6 /90	161.7 /90	10.1 /90
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Sturm Graz — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sturm Graz before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Jacob Hödl n 8	67	2 5/2	0.8 1/1	—
Jon Stankovic n 8	87.1	1 3/2	2.2 7/6	—
Simon Seidl n 8	81.6	0.8 4/2	0.8 4/2	—
J. Heil n 8	87.1	0.9 5/2	1.3 4/2	—
Luca Weinhandl n 8	86.9	1.2 5/2	2.5 8/5	—
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Sturm Graz — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sturm Graz before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Jacob Hödl n 8	67	0.8 4/1
Jon Stankovic n 8	87.1	1.3 4/3
Simon Seidl n 8	81.6	0.3 2/0
J. Heil n 8	87.1	2.2 8/4
Luca Weinhandl n 8	86.9	1.8 7/3
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Sturm Graz Attacking

Sturm Graz — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Seedy Jatta	10	64641 min	20.3 /90	00 /90	111.5 /90	60.8 /90	50.7 /90	50.7 /90
Oumar Diakité	10	51511 min	101.8 /90	00 /90	284.9 /90	142.5 /90	30.5 /90	50.9 /90
B. Beganović	10	45451 min	20.4 /90	00 /90	102 /90	71.4 /90	51 /90	51 /90
S. Włodarczyk	9	50449 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	91.8 /90	40.8 /90	51 /90	20.4 /90
Axel Kayombo	9	35317 min	00 /90	00 /90	72 /90	00 /90	30.9 /90	72 /90
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Sturm Graz — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sturm Graz before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Jacob Hödl n 8	67	1.5 5/2	0.5 3/0
Jon Stankovic n 8	87.1	2.1 8/4	0.4 3/0
Simon Seidl n 8	81.6	2.8 7/6	1.1 4/2
J. Heil n 8	87.1	0.5 4/0	0.1 1/0
Luca Weinhandl n 8	86.9	1.4 6/4	0.8 5/1
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Sturm Graz — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sturm Graz before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Jacob Hödl n 8	67	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
Jon Stankovic n 8	87.1	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Simon Seidl n 8	81.6	0.1 1/0	0.4 1/1
J. Heil n 8	87.1	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Luca Weinhandl n 8	86.9	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind AZ Alkmaar v Sturm Graz — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

AZ AlkmaarDWLLL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Sturm GrazWWDDL

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

League standing · 2026/27

AZ Alkmaar#14 pos6 pts4 pl+3 GD

Sturm Graz#24 pos4 pts4 pl-3 GD

Goals per game

AZ Alkmaar scored1.75

Sturm Graz scored0.75

AZ Alkmaar conceded1

Sturm Graz conceded1.5

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