Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille prediction

UEFA Europa League · Thu, 05 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT · BayArena

Updated 1 Nov 2026, 00:18 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Bayer Leverkusen · Marseille

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille, UEFA Europa League on Thu, 05 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT.

Free pick

Home win

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 79.1% of 254 landed (95% range 73.7–83.7%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Bayer Leverkusen host Marseille in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Bayer Leverkusen to win, a Bronze-tier call.

Form and the table

11 of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in eight of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Bayer Leverkusen have five wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.29 points per game, scoring 2.57 and conceding 1.14.

Eight of Marseille’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of Marseille’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Marseille have three wins, no draws and five defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.13 points per game, scoring 1.13 and conceding 1.63.

Bayer Leverkusen (second) and Marseille (34th) are nine points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Bayer Leverkusen the stronger side, 518 rating points above Marseille (Bayer Leverkusen 2056, Marseille 1538, after at least 48 rated matches each).

Team news

Predicted Bayer Leverkusen XI (4-2-3-1): M. Flekken, F. Medina, E. Tapsoba, M. Gutiérrez, J. Quansah, A. García, I. Maza, E. Fernández, A. Moreira, M. Tillman, P. Schick — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Patrik Schick (5.9 per match over 13 appearances, 11 goals and two assists) and Ibrahim Maza (5.3 per match over 12 appearances, four goals and three assists) have been Bayer Leverkusen’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Bayer Leverkusen (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Patrik Schick averages 3.6 shots per 90 over 1099 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Ibrahim Maza averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 1408 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Marseille XI (4-2-3-1): J. de Lange, N. Aguerd, C. Egan-Riley, Emerson, T. Weah, H. Abdelli, A. Harit, T. Nnadi, P. Højbjerg, A. Gomes, A. Gouiri — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Amine Harit (4.0 per match over 10 appearances, two goals and one assist) and Igor Paixão (3.9 per match over 10 appearances, two goals) have been Marseille’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Marseille (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Amine Harit averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 764 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Igor Paixão averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 713 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT · UEFA Europa League · BayArena
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Bayer Leverkusen 3W 0D 2L · Marseille 3W 0D 2L

Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille (UEFA Europa League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 1 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.63 / 1.63

Goals

against 1.63 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.25

over 8 matches

7.38 / 4.5

Corners

against 4.13 / 3.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

7.75 / 4.13

Shots on target

against 3.88 / 5.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.25 / 2

Cards

against 2.38 / 2.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 31 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Bayer Leverkusen for / against	Line	Marseille for / against
Goals scored	2.63 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.25our book	1.63 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	7.38 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.5 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	19.88 for · 12.75 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.63 for · 17.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	7.75 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.13 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.13 for · 8.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.5 for · 12.38 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.25 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen Goalkeeper

Bayer Leverkusen — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Flekken	10	90900 min	232.3 /90	121.2 /90	00 /90
J. Blaswich	3	90270 min	41.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Bayer Leverkusen — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayer Leverkusen before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Flekken n 8	90	2.5 6/6
J. Blaswich n 8	90	4.1 5/4

Bayer Leverkusen Defensive

Bayer Leverkusen — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
E. Tapsoba	13	841096 min	141.1 /90	110.9 /90	60.5 /90	473.9 /90	50.4 /90	10.1 /90
F. Medina	13	71922 min	131.3 /90	101 /90	70.7 /90	323.1 /90	131.3 /90	30.3 /90
Miguel Gutiérrez	12	82982 min	121.1 /90	70.6 /90	20.2 /90	292.7 /90	121.1 /90	10.1 /90
J. Quansah	12	65779 min	111.3 /90	30.3 /90	40.5 /90	222.5 /90	121.4 /90	20.2 /90
Lucas Vázquez	7	71496 min	40.7 /90	40.7 /90	20.4 /90	244.4 /90	91.6 /90	10.2 /90
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Bayer Leverkusen — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayer Leverkusen before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Aleix García n 8	84.9	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0	—
E. Tapsoba n 8	80.8	0.4 3/0	0.4 2/1	—
F. Medina n 8	78.1	0.9 5/1	0.6 3/1	—
P. Schick n 8	74.6	0.9 4/1	0.9 6/0	—
Miguel Gutiérrez n 8	78.6	1.4 6/3	0.6 3/1	—
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Bayer Leverkusen — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayer Leverkusen before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Aleix García n 8	84.9	1.2 5/2
E. Tapsoba n 8	80.8	1 4/3
F. Medina n 8	78.1	1.4 7/2
P. Schick n 8	74.6	0.6 4/0
Miguel Gutiérrez n 8	78.6	1.3 4/3
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Bayer Leverkusen Attacking

Bayer Leverkusen — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
P. Schick	13	71919 min	111.1 /90	20.2 /90	424.1 /90	202 /90	151.5 /90	90.9 /90
N. Tella	7	42291 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	144.3 /90	61.9 /90	30.9 /90	41.2 /90
Christian Kofane	5	33163 min	31.7 /90	00 /90	105.5 /90	42.2 /90	21.1 /90	10.6 /90
M. Terrier	3	34103 min	00 /90	00 /90	43.5 /90	21.7 /90	10.9 /90	21.7 /90
Aleix García	13	871129 min	00 /90	50.4 /90	171.4 /90	50.4 /90	352.8 /90	20.2 /90
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Bayer Leverkusen — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayer Leverkusen before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Aleix García n 8	84.9	1.6 5/4	0.1 1/0
E. Tapsoba n 8	80.8	1.1 4/2	0.6 2/1
F. Medina n 8	78.1	0.7 4/1	0.4 3/0
P. Schick n 8	74.6	4.1 8/7	2.1 7/5
Miguel Gutiérrez n 8	78.6	1 6/1	0.3 2/0
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Bayer Leverkusen — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayer Leverkusen before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Aleix García n 8	84.9	0 0/0	0.5 3/1
E. Tapsoba n 8	80.8	0.3 1/1	0 0/0
F. Medina n 8	78.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
P. Schick n 8	74.6	1.1 6/1	0.2 1/0
Miguel Gutiérrez n 8	78.6	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0
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Marseille

Marseille Goalkeeper

Marseille — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. de Lange	11	90990 min	403.6 /90	60.5 /90	00 /90

Marseille — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. de Lange n 8	90	3.9 7/7

Marseille Defensive

Marseille — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
N. Aguerd	11	62686 min	50.7 /90	111.4 /90	50.7 /90	395.1 /90	70.9 /90	10.1 /90
C. Egan-Riley	10	82820 min	111.2 /90	131.4 /90	40.4 /90	384.2 /90	40.4 /90	00 /90
Emerson	10	81807 min	91 /90	121.3 /90	30.3 /90	293.2 /90	60.7 /90	00 /90
T. Weah	9	89797 min	252.8 /90	101.1 /90	50.6 /90	424.7 /90	141.6 /90	10.1 /90
G. Kondogbia	4	67266 min	72.4 /90	41.4 /90	10.3 /90	134.4 /90	31 /90	00 /90
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Marseille — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. de Lange n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
H. Abdelli n 8	80.1	1.4 6/3	0.4 3/0	—
A. Gouiri n 8	68.8	0.7 4/0	0.7 2/1	—
N. Aguerd n 8	70.8	0.8 3/1	0.2 1/0	—
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	0.5 3/1	1 5/1	—
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Marseille — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
H. Abdelli n 8	80.1	2 5/4
A. Gouiri n 8	68.8	0.7 2/1
N. Aguerd n 8	70.8	0.6 3/1
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	1.2 5/1
Emerson n 8	78.4	0.7 4/1
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Marseille Attacking

Marseille — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Gouiri	11	75820 min	50.5 /90	20.2 /90	161.8 /90	91 /90	111.2 /90	70.8 /90
K. Abdallah	9	45408 min	20.4 /90	00 /90	153.3 /90	51.1 /90	71.5 /90	81.8 /90
N. Maupay	6	50302 min	00 /90	00 /90	51.5 /90	00 /90	20.6 /90	30.9 /90
T. Mmadi	1	1818 min	00 /90	00 /90	15 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
H. Abdelli	11	78858 min	30.3 /90	10.1 /90	70.7 /90	30.3 /90	111.2 /90	70.7 /90
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Marseille — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. de Lange n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
H. Abdelli n 8	80.1	0.8 3/2	0.4 3/0
A. Gouiri n 8	68.8	1.3 4/2	0.5 1/1
N. Aguerd n 8	70.8	0.6 3/1	0 0/0
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
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Marseille — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. de Lange n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
H. Abdelli n 8	80.1	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
A. Gouiri n 8	68.8	0.2 1/0	0.3 2/0
N. Aguerd n 8	70.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Bayer LeverkusenWWLWL

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2.2 scored / 2 conceded per game

MarseilleWLWLW

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

League standing · 2026/27

Bayer Leverkusen#2 pos9 pts3 pl+8 GD

Marseille#34 pos0 pts3 pl-5 GD

Goals per game

Bayer Leverkusen scored2.67

Marseille scored0.33

Bayer Leverkusen conceded0

Marseille conceded2

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille is Home win.
What is the recent form of Bayer Leverkusen and Marseille?: Recent form — Bayer Leverkusen 3W 0D 2L; Marseille 3W 0D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 1 Nov 2026, 00:18 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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