Marseille v Celta Vigo prediction

UEFA Europa League · Thu, 10 Dec 2026 17:45 GMT

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 16:53 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX’s free model pick for Marseille v Celta Vigo, UEFA Europa League on Thu, 10 Dec 2026 17:45 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Marseille host Celta Vigo in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 10 December (kick-off 17:45 UK).

Form and the table

Seven of Marseille’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in six of Marseille’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). At home, Marseille have four wins, no draws and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.71 points per game, scoring 2.29 and conceding 1.43.

Seven of Celta Vigo’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in seven of Celta Vigo’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Celta Vigo have one win, four draws and two defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.00 points per game, scoring 0.43 and conceding 0.86.

Marseille have won their last three matches in all competitions. Celta Vigo are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. Marseille (31st) and Celta Vigo (27th) are level on points, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Celta Vigo the stronger side, 168 rating points above Marseille (Celta Vigo 1706, Marseille 1538, after at least 17 rated matches each).

Team news

Predicted Marseille XI (4-2-3-1): J. de Lange, N. Aguerd, C. Egan-Riley, U. Garcia, K. Bezahaf, H. Abdelli, P. Højbjerg, I. Paixão, T. Nnadi, A. Harit, A. Gouiri — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Amine Harit (4.3 per match over 11 appearances, three goals and one assist) and Amine Gouiri (4.2 per match over 13 appearances, seven goals and three assists) have been Marseille’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Marseille (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Amine Harit averages 1.9 key passes per 90 over 837 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Amine Gouiri averages 1.6 shots per 90 over 1386 minutes, with a shot in six of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Celta Vigo XI (3-4-3): I. Radu, J. Rodríguez, Y. Lago, M. Alonso, J. Rueda, A. Febas, I. Moriba, S. Carreira, H. Álvarez, F. Jutglà, P. Durán — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Javi Rodríguez (3.7 per match over 11 appearances, three goals and one assist) and Carl Starfelt (3.6 per match over four appearances, one goal) have been Celta Vigo’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Celta Vigo (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Javi Rodríguez averages 1.3 tackles per 90 over 884 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances. Carl Starfelt averages 1.5 tackles per 90 over 528 minutes, with a tackle in four of the last nine appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Thu, 10 Dec 2026 17:45 GMT · UEFA Europa League
Recent form: Marseille 4W 0D 1L · Celta Vigo 2W 1D 2L

Marseille v Celta Vigo (UEFA Europa League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 1.38

Goals

against 1.13 / 1.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.25 / 3.75

Corners

against 3.75 / 3.75 · 0 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

3.75 / 3.25

Shots on target

against 5.13 / 4.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2 / 1.5

Cards

against 2 / 2.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 5 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Marseille for / against	Line	Celta Vigo for / against
Goals scored	1.88 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.38 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.25 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.75 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	11.88 for · 15.5 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.75 for · 14.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.75 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.25 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.5 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	13.25 for · 13.75 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.5 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5

Marseille

Marseille Goalkeeper

Marseille — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. de Lange	13	901170 min	483.7 /90	60.5 /90	00 /90

Marseille — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. de Lange n 8	90	3.8 7/6

Marseille Defensive

Marseille — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
N. Aguerd	13	67866 min	80.8 /90	151.6 /90	60.6 /90	505.2 /90	80.8 /90	10.1 /90
C. Egan-Riley	12	831000 min	131.2 /90	191.7 /90	50.5 /90	423.8 /90	50.5 /90	10.1 /90
T. Weah	11	89977 min	262.4 /90	121.1 /90	60.6 /90	484.4 /90	141.3 /90	10.1 /90
Emerson	11	75826 min	91 /90	121.3 /90	30.3 /90	293.2 /90	60.7 /90	00 /90
U. Garcia	5	66331 min	154.1 /90	41.1 /90	10.3 /90	267.1 /90	41.1 /90	10.3 /90
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Marseille — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. de Lange n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
H. Abdelli n 8	79.5	1.3 5/3	0.6 4/0	—
A. Gouiri n 8	76.3	1 5/1	0.9 3/2	—
N. Aguerd n 8	79.4	0.9 4/1	0.1 1/0	—
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	0.5 3/1	0.5 4/0	—
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Marseille — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
H. Abdelli n 8	79.5	2.3 5/4
A. Gouiri n 8	76.3	0.9 3/2
N. Aguerd n 8	79.4	1 5/2
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	0.8 6/0
Igor Paixão n 8	74	2 5/4
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Marseille Attacking

Marseille — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Gouiri	13	76991 min	70.6 /90	30.3 /90	222 /90	121.1 /90	141.3 /90	80.7 /90
K. Abdallah	9	45408 min	20.4 /90	00 /90	153.3 /90	51.1 /90	71.5 /90	81.8 /90
N. Maupay	6	50302 min	00 /90	00 /90	51.5 /90	00 /90	20.6 /90	30.9 /90
T. Mmadi	2	1937 min	00 /90	00 /90	12.4 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
H. Abdelli	13	791021 min	30.3 /90	10.1 /90	80.7 /90	30.3 /90	111 /90	90.8 /90
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Marseille — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. de Lange n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
H. Abdelli n 8	79.5	1 4/2	0.4 3/0
A. Gouiri n 8	76.3	1.6 4/3	0.9 3/2
N. Aguerd n 8	79.4	1 5/2	0.1 1/0
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
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Marseille — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. de Lange n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
H. Abdelli n 8	79.5	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
A. Gouiri n 8	76.3	0.4 3/0	0.4 3/0
N. Aguerd n 8	79.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo Goalkeeper

Celta Vigo — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
I. Radu	15	901350 min	503.3 /90	70.5 /90	00 /90

Celta Vigo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Celta Vigo before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
I. Radu n 8	90	3.9 7/5

Celta Vigo Defensive

Celta Vigo — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Yoel Lago	13	871125 min	191.5 /90	181.4 /90	90.7 /90	493.9 /90	221.8 /90	40.3 /90
Marcos Alonso	11	86951 min	171.6 /90	161.5 /90	30.3 /90	403.8 /90	121.1 /90	20.2 /90
Javi Rodríguez	10	86855 min	131.4 /90	101.1 /90	20.2 /90	333.5 /90	50.5 /90	00 /90
Álvaro Núñez	5	86431 min	71.5 /90	51 /90	10.2 /90	132.7 /90	51 /90	00 /90
S. Cáceres	5	82408 min	102.2 /90	51.1 /90	30.7 /90	235.1 /90	30.7 /90	10.2 /90
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Celta Vigo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Celta Vigo before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
I. Radu n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
Sergio Carreira n 8	59.4	0.9 5/0	1.3 5/2	—
Javi Rueda n 8	73.6	1.7 6/3	1.2 5/2	—
W. Swedberg n 8	43.6	1.8 5/2	1.3 3/2	—
Yoel Lago n 8	90	1.9 6/4	1.6 7/5	—
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Celta Vigo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Celta Vigo before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Sergio Carreira n 8	59.4	0.8 2/2
Javi Rueda n 8	73.6	0.5 2/1
W. Swedberg n 8	43.6	2.3 5/2
Yoel Lago n 8	90	2 6/5
I. Moriba n 8	69	3.3 7/4
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Celta Vigo Attacking

Celta Vigo — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
W. Swedberg	14	45629 min	00 /90	10.1 /90	71 /90	40.6 /90	142 /90	30.4 /90
Hugo Álvarez	13	63820 min	10.1 /90	30.3 /90	50.5 /90	10.1 /90	131.4 /90	80.9 /90
Ferran Jutglà	12	69833 min	20.2 /90	00 /90	192.1 /90	50.5 /90	91 /90	50.5 /90
Iago Aspas	11	36393 min	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	92.1 /90	30.7 /90	122.7 /90	61.4 /90
Pablo Durán	10	58583 min	30.5 /90	00 /90	162.5 /90	91.4 /90	40.6 /90	81.2 /90
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Celta Vigo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Celta Vigo before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
I. Radu n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Sergio Carreira n 8	59.4	0.9 4/1	0 0/0
Javi Rueda n 8	73.6	0.6 4/0	0 0/0
W. Swedberg n 8	43.6	1 2/1	0.3 1/0
Yoel Lago n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Celta Vigo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Celta Vigo before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
I. Radu n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Sergio Carreira n 8	59.4	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
Javi Rueda n 8	73.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
W. Swedberg n 8	43.6	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
Yoel Lago n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Marseille v Celta Vigo — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

MarseilleWLWWW

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Celta VigoWWDLL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

League standing · 2026/27

Marseille#31 pos3 pts4 pl-4 GD

Celta Vigo#27 pos3 pts4 pl-2 GD

Goals per game

Marseille scored0.5

Celta Vigo scored1

Marseille conceded1.5

Celta Vigo conceded1.5

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Expected goals (xG)

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