Denmark v Norway prediction

UEFA Nations League · Tue, 17 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 12:20 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Draw the free pick for Denmark v Norway, UEFA Nations League on Tue, 17 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Home or Draw

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.7% of 1766 landed (95% range 74.7–78.6%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Denmark host Norway in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday 17 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Denmark or the draw, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

14 of Norway’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (93%). Both teams scored in 13 of Norway’s last 15 results in all competitions (87%).

Denmark have scored in 11 consecutive matches in all competitions. Norway have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Nine of Denmark’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in seven of Denmark’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Denmark have four wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.00.

Away from home, Norway have five wins, no draws and two defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 2.14 points per game, scoring 2.14 and conceding 1.14.

Norway have lost their last three matches in all competitions. Denmark (second) and Norway (fourth) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Denmark the stronger side, 119 rating points above Norway (Denmark 1728, Norway 1609, after at least 28 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 24 September 2026, finished Norway 3–2 Denmark.

Team news

Predicted Denmark XI (4-2-3-1): M. Hermansen, J. Andersen, O. Provstgaard, J. Mæhle, R. Kristensen, M. Hjulmand, P. Højbjerg, M. Damsgaard, M. Daramy, G. Isaksen, R. Højlund — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Mikkel Damsgaard (7.1 per match over three appearances, two goals and one assist) and J. Mæhle (5.1 per match over five appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Denmark’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Denmark (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Mikkel Damsgaard averages 2.5 key passes per 90 over 879 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. J. Mæhle averages 2.4 tackles per 90 over 1446 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Norway XI (4-3-3): Ø. Nyland, K. Ajer, D. Møller Wolfe, T. Heggem, F. Aursnes, S. Berge, M. Ødegaard, P. Berg, E. Haaland, A. Schjelderup, A. Nusa — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Erling Haaland (5.2 per match over 11 appearances, 10 goals) and Martin Ødegaard (5.1 per match over 10 appearances, one goal and eight assists) have been Norway’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Norway (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Erling Haaland averages 3.5 shots per 90 over 2150 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Martin Ødegaard averages 2.4 key passes per 90 over 2095 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Tue, 17 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · UEFA Nations League
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 2): Denmark 1 · draws 0 · Norway 1 · 4.5 goals/game
Recent form: Denmark 2W 1D 2L · Norway 1W 0D 4L

Denmark v Norway (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2 / 1.5

Goals

against 1.75 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

6.86 / 4.29

Corners

against 3.57 / 6 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 7 matches

5.71 / 4.71

Shots on target

against 4.14 / 6 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.43 / 1.43

Cards

against 2.43 / 2.71 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 4 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 4 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Denmark for / against	Line	Norway for / against
Goals scored	2 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.5 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6.86 for · 3.57 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	4.29 for · 6 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	18.71 for · 9.71 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	12 for · 14.71 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	5.71 for · 4.14 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	4.71 for · 6 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	8.71 for · 13.14 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	8.29 for · 9.29 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	1.43 for · 2.43 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	1.43 for · 2.71 against n 7 Last 5

Denmark

Denmark Goalkeeper

Denmark — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
F. Jörgensen	2	90180 min	73.5 /90	31.5 /90	00 /90
M. Hermansen	2	90180 min	73.5 /90	42 /90	00 /90

Denmark — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Denmark before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Hermansen n 3	90	2.3 1/1

Denmark Defensive

Denmark — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Andersen	4	90360 min	51.3 /90	61.5 /90	30.8 /90	194.8 /90	41 /90	00 /90
O. Provstgaard	4	90360 min	51.3 /90	10.3 /90	51.3 /90	123 /90	00 /90	00 /90
J. Mæhle	4	88350 min	123.1 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90	174.4 /90	20.5 /90	10.3 /90
R. Kristensen	4	87346 min	92.3 /90	51.3 /90	20.5 /90	102.6 /90	30.8 /90	10.3 /90
Morten Hjulmand	4	86342 min	61.6 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	153.9 /90	61.6 /90	00 /90
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Denmark — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Denmark before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Andersen n 8	84.4	1.2 7/2	0.8 5/1	—
O. Provstgaard n 4	90	0 0/0	0.3 1/0	—
J. Mæhle n 8	80.6	0.3 1/1	0.4 3/0	—
R. Kristensen n 8	84.6	1.2 5/3	0.3 2/0	—
Morten Hjulmand n 8	79	1.3 6/2	1.3 6/2	—
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Denmark — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Denmark before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Andersen n 8	84.4	1.7 8/5
O. Provstgaard n 4	90	1.3 3/2
J. Mæhle n 8	80.6	2.7 5/5
R. Kristensen n 8	84.6	2.3 6/4
Morten Hjulmand n 8	79	1.1 4/3
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Denmark Attacking

Denmark — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
R. Højlund	4	85341 min	30.8 /90	00 /90	61.6 /90	61.6 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90
A. Skov Olsen	1	8080 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	33.4 /90	00 /90
Morten Hjulmand	4	86342 min	00 /90	00 /90	41.1 /90	10.3 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90
G. Isaksen	4	55218 min	10.4 /90	00 /90	83.3 /90	20.8 /90	41.7 /90	41.7 /90
P. Højbjerg	3	90270 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	20.7 /90	00 /90
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Denmark — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Denmark before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
O. Provstgaard n 4	90	0.8 2/1	0 0/0
J. Andersen n 8	84.4	0.4 2/1	0.3 2/0
J. Mæhle n 8	80.6	1 5/2	0.4 3/0
R. Kristensen n 8	84.6	0.3 1/1	0.1 1/0
Morten Hjulmand n 8	79	0.9 5/1	0.1 1/0
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Denmark — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Denmark before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Andersen n 8	84.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
O. Provstgaard n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Mæhle n 8	80.6	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
R. Kristensen n 8	84.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
Morten Hjulmand n 8	79	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Norway

Norway Goalkeeper

Norway — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Ø. Nyland	7	90630 min	213 /90	111.6 /90	10.1 /90
E. Selvik	2	90180 min	105 /90	63 /90	00 /90

Norway — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Norway before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Ø. Nyland n 8	90	3 7/5
E. Selvik n 3	90	3.7 2/2

Norway Defensive

Norway — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
K. Ajer	8	90720 min	70.9 /90	91.1 /90	50.6 /90	394.9 /90	40.5 /90	10.1 /90
T. Heggem	7	83580 min	71.1 /90	50.8 /90	50.8 /90	152.3 /90	40.6 /90	00 /90
D. Møller Wolfe	7	76534 min	81.3 /90	61 /90	30.5 /90	193.2 /90	101.7 /90	20.3 /90
L. Østigård	6	47279 min	72.3 /90	41.3 /90	31 /90	123.9 /90	20.6 /90	00 /90
J. Ryerson	5	65325 min	102.8 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	174.7 /90	71.9 /90	10.3 /90
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Norway — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Norway before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
F. Aursnes n 8	58.5	1.3 4/1	0.4 2/0	—
A. Schjelderup n 8	55.6	0.6 2/1	1 4/1	—
Oscar Bobb n 8	39.1	0.3 1/0	2 4/2	—
S. Berge n 8	90	0.9 4/2	0.4 3/0	—
K. Ajer n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0.5 3/1	—
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Norway — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Norway before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
F. Aursnes n 8	58.5	2.5 7/3
A. Schjelderup n 8	55.6	2.8 6/2
Oscar Bobb n 8	39.1	1.2 4/0
S. Berge n 8	90	1.4 5/2
K. Ajer n 8	90	0.9 5/2
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Norway Attacking

Norway — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Schjelderup	9	51462 min	00 /90	30.6 /90	71.4 /90	30.6 /90	91.8 /90	71.4 /90
E. Haaland	8	87697 min	101.3 /90	00 /90	303.9 /90	212.7 /90	81 /90	20.3 /90
A. Nusa	8	65519 min	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	40.7 /90	20.3 /90	71.2 /90	183.1 /90
Alexander Sørloth	4	68273 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	31 /90	00 /90
J. Strand Larsen	3	43128 min	00 /90	00 /90	32.1 /90	10.7 /90	32.1 /90	10.7 /90
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Norway — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Norway before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
F. Aursnes n 8	58.5	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
A. Schjelderup n 8	55.6	1.4 6/1	0.6 3/0
Oscar Bobb n 8	39.1	1.2 4/0	1.2 4/0
K. Ajer n 8	90	0.4 2/1	0.3 2/0
S. Berge n 8	90	0.3 1/1	0 0/0
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Norway — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Norway before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
F. Aursnes n 8	58.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Schjelderup n 8	55.6	0 0/0	0.6 2/1
Oscar Bobb n 8	39.1	0.6 2/0	0 0/0
K. Ajer n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
S. Berge n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Denmark v Norway — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

DenmarkDLWLW

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

NorwayLWLLL

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1.4 scored / 2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 2

Denmark 1 · 0 draws · Norway 1 · 4.5 goals/game

2026-09-24 Norway 3–2 Denmark
2024-06-08 Denmark 3–1 Norway

League standing · 2026/27

Denmark#2 pos6 pts4 pl0 GD

Norway#4 pos3 pts4 pl-2 GD

Goals per game

Denmark scored1.75

Norway scored1.5

Denmark conceded1.75

Norway conceded2

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Denmark v Norway?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Denmark v Norway is Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Denmark and Norway?: In their last 2 meetings, Denmark won 1, Norway won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 4.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Denmark and Norway?: Recent form — Denmark 2W 1D 2L; Norway 1W 0D 4L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 12:20 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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