Germany v Netherlands prediction

UEFA Nations League · Mon, 16 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 12:20 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Germany · Netherlands · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Draw the free pick for Germany v Netherlands, UEFA Nations League on Mon, 16 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Home or Draw

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.7% of 1766 landed (95% range 74.7–78.6%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Germany host Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League on Monday 16 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Germany or the draw, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Netherlands are unbeaten in at least their last 15 matches in all competitions. Netherlands have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions. Germany are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Netherlands.

Form and the table

Six of Germany’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in six of Germany’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). At home, Germany have six wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 2.11 points per game, scoring 2.78 and conceding 0.78.

11 of Netherlands’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 11 of Netherlands’s last 15 results in all competitions (73%). Away from home, Netherlands have four wins, two draws and no defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 2.33 points per game, scoring 2.50 and conceding 1.17.

Germany (third) and Netherlands (first) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Netherlands the stronger side, 94 rating points above Germany (Netherlands 1827, Germany 1733, after at least 30 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 24 September 2026, finished Netherlands 1–1 Germany.

Team news

Predicted Germany XI (4-4-2): J. Urbig, J. Tah, P. Treu, N. Brown, W. Anton, A. Pavlović, F. Nmecha, D. Scherhant, T. Bischof, F. Wirtz, K. Havertz — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Florian Wirtz (6.2 per match over 11 appearances, four goals and five assists) and Deniz Undav (5.2 per match over seven appearances, six goals and three assists) have been Germany’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Germany (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Florian Wirtz averages 2.8 key passes per 90 over 1947 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Deniz Undav averages 2.1 shots per 90 over 1425 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Netherlands XI (4-3-3): B. Verbruggen, V. van Dijk, D. Dumfries, M. van de Ven, J. van Hecke, R. Gravenberch, T. Reijnders, J. Veerman, C. Summerville, M. Meerdink, C. Gakpo — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Cody Gakpo (4.9 per match over 10 appearances, six goals and one assist) and Joey Veerman (4.6 per match over four appearances, one assist) have been Netherlands’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Netherlands (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Cody Gakpo averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 1674 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Joey Veerman averages 2.5 key passes per 90 over 1346 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Mon, 16 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · UEFA Nations League
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Germany 2 · draws 3 · Netherlands 1 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Germany 1W 3D 1L · Netherlands 2W 3D 0L

Germany v Netherlands (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 2.25

Goals

against 0.88 / 1.25 · 0 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

6 / 6.14

Corners

against 3.43 / 3.86 · 3 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 7 matches

5.86 / 7.14

Shots on target

against 3 / 4.43 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 7 matches

0.86 / 1.29

Cards

against 2.14 / 1.57 · 3 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 4 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 4 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Germany for / against	Line	Netherlands for / against
Goals scored	1.75 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	2.25 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6 for · 3.43 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	6.14 for · 3.86 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	19 for · 8.57 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	18.29 for · 11.29 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	5.86 for · 3 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	7.14 for · 4.43 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.57 for · 10.57 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	9.71 for · 10.29 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	0.86 for · 2.14 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	1.29 for · 1.57 against n 7 Last 5

Germany

Germany Goalkeeper

Germany — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded
M. Neuer	3	90270 min	31 /90	41.3 /90
J. Urbig	2	90180 min	31.5 /90	00 /90
M. ter Stegen	1	9090 min	99 /90	11 /90

Germany — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Germany before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Neuer n 8	90	2.8 5/3

Germany Defensive

Germany — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Tah	5	87433 min	51 /90	30.6 /90	30.6 /90	122.5 /90	71.5 /90	00 /90
J. Kimmich	5	83413 min	71.5 /90	51.1 /90	10.2 /90	153.3 /90	30.7 /90	00 /90
N. Brown	4	84337 min	102.7 /90	41.1 /90	20.5 /90	123.2 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90
P. Treu	3	90270 min	72.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	155 /90	31 /90	10.3 /90
N. Schlotterbeck	3	75225 min	41.6 /90	41.6 /90	31.2 /90	124.8 /90	41.6 /90	00 /90
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Germany — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Germany before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
F. Wirtz n 8	78.1	0.3 2/0	0.4 3/0	—
J. Tah n 8	86.5	1.3 7/2	0.1 1/0	—
J. Kimmich n 8	82.1	0.7 4/1	1.8 7/4	—
F. Nmecha n 8	68.3	1.2 6/1	1.5 6/2	—
A. Pavlović n 8	74.4	2.1 6/3	1.5 7/3	—
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Germany — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Germany before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
F. Wirtz n 8	78.1	1.4 6/4
J. Tah n 8	86.5	1 6/2
J. Kimmich n 8	82.1	1.5 5/4
F. Nmecha n 8	68.3	3.1 7/3
A. Pavlović n 8	74.4	1.5 5/4
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Germany Attacking

Germany — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
F. Wirtz	6	76458 min	10.2 /90	20.4 /90	91.8 /90	30.6 /90	173.3 /90	132.6 /90
K. Havertz	4	66265 min	20.7 /90	00 /90	62 /90	41.4 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
D. Undav	3	2986 min	33.1 /90	22.1 /90	55.2 /90	44.2 /90	77.3 /90	00 /90
Y. Ebnoutalib	2	75150 min	00 /90	00 /90	42.4 /90	21.2 /90	10.6 /90	10.6 /90
N. Woltemade	2	52104 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.7 /90	00 /90	10.9 /90	10.9 /90
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Germany — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Germany before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
F. Wirtz n 8	78.1	1.9 7/3	0.7 3/2
J. Tah n 8	86.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Kimmich n 8	82.1	0.5 2/2	0.3 2/0
F. Nmecha n 8	68.3	2.1 7/4	1.2 5/1
A. Pavlović n 8	74.4	0.6 3/1	0.2 1/0
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Germany — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Germany before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
F. Wirtz n 8	78.1	0.1 1/0	0.6 3/1
J. Tah n 8	86.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Kimmich n 8	82.1	0 0/0	0.4 2/1
F. Nmecha n 8	68.3	0.5 3/0	0.2 1/0
A. Pavlović n 8	74.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Netherlands

Netherlands Goalkeeper

Netherlands — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
B. Verbruggen	7	90630 min	223.1 /90	91.3 /90	00 /90

Netherlands — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Netherlands before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
B. Verbruggen n 8	90	2.9 5/4

Netherlands Defensive

Netherlands — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
V. van Dijk	7	90630 min	20.3 /90	30.4 /90	00 /90	294.1 /90	60.9 /90	10.1 /90
D. Dumfries	7	89620 min	152.2 /90	71 /90	00 /90	304.4 /90	71 /90	00 /90
M. van de Ven	6	90540 min	122 /90	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	244 /90	40.7 /90	10.2 /90
J. van Hecke	5	90450 min	61.2 /90	51 /90	51 /90	285.6 /90	51 /90	10.2 /90
N. Aké	1	9090 min	11 /90	22 /90	00 /90	44 /90	22 /90	00 /90
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Netherlands — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Netherlands before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
V. van Dijk n 8	90	0.8 4/2	0.1 1/0	—
B. Verbruggen n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
D. Dumfries n 8	88.8	0.9 4/2	0.5 4/0	—
R. Gravenberch n 8	76.4	0.7 3/2	1.2 6/2	—
C. Summerville n 7	69.4	0.6 3/0	2.8 6/4	—
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Netherlands — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Netherlands before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
V. van Dijk n 8	90	0.4 3/0
D. Dumfries n 8	88.8	2.3 8/6
R. Gravenberch n 8	76.4	0.6 2/1
C. Summerville n 7	69.4	1.9 4/3
T. Reijnders n 8	71	0.5 2/1
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Netherlands Attacking

Netherlands — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. Summerville	7	69486 min	20.4 /90	10.2 /90	61.1 /90	50.9 /90	61.1 /90	122.2 /90
C. Gakpo	5	73365 min	30.7 /90	10.2 /90	92.2 /90	71.7 /90	61.5 /90	30.7 /90
Mexx Meerdink	4	63250 min	20.7 /90	00 /90	82.9 /90	51.8 /90	62.2 /90	31.1 /90
D. Malen	3	62187 min	00 /90	00 /90	41.9 /90	21 /90	41.9 /90	41.9 /90
B. Brobbey	3	61184 min	31.5 /90	00 /90	31.5 /90	31.5 /90	52.4 /90	00 /90
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Netherlands — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Netherlands before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
V. van Dijk n 8	90	1 6/2	0.6 5/0
B. Verbruggen n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Dumfries n 8	88.8	1 5/2	0.5 3/1
R. Gravenberch n 8	76.4	0.9 4/2	0.3 2/0
C. Summerville n 7	69.4	1.1 5/1	0.9 5/0
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Netherlands — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Netherlands before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
V. van Dijk n 8	90	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
B. Verbruggen n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Dumfries n 8	88.8	0 0/0	0.3 1/1
R. Gravenberch n 8	76.4	0 0/0	0.3 1/1
C. Summerville n 7	69.4	0.4 2/0	0.2 1/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Germany v Netherlands — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

GermanyDDLWD

Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 0.8 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

NetherlandsDDWDW

Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · 1.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Germany 2 · 3 draws · Netherlands 1 · 3 goals/game

2026-09-24 Netherlands 1–1 Germany
2024-10-14 Germany 1–0 Netherlands
2024-09-10 Netherlands 2–2 Germany
2024-03-26 Germany 2–1 Netherlands
2022-03-29 Netherlands 1–1 Germany
2019-09-06 Germany 2–4 Netherlands

League standing · 2026/27

Germany#3 pos5 pts4 pl+1 GD

Netherlands#1 pos8 pts4 pl+2 GD

Goals per game

Germany scored0.75

Netherlands scored1.75

Germany conceded0.5

Netherlands conceded1.25

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Germany v Netherlands?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Germany v Netherlands is Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Germany and Netherlands?: In their last 6 meetings, Germany won 2, Netherlands won 1 and there were 3 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Germany and Netherlands?: Recent form — Germany 1W 3D 1L; Netherlands 2W 3D 0L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 12:20 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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