Luxembourg v Estonia prediction

UEFA Nations League · Fri, 13 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT

Updated 8 Nov 2026, 11:45 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Under 2.5 goals the free pick for Luxembourg v Estonia, UEFA Nations League on Fri, 13 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 55.7% of 140 landed (95% range 47.4–63.7%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Luxembourg host Estonia in the UEFA Nations League on Friday 13 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Under 2.5 goals.

Form and the table

Six of Luxembourg’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in four of Luxembourg’s last 15 results in all competitions (27%). At home, Luxembourg have one win, one draw and six defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 0.50 points per game, scoring 0.75 and conceding 1.75.

Seven of Estonia’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in seven of Estonia’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Estonia have one win, three draws and four defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.75 points per game, scoring 0.75 and conceding 1.88.

Luxembourg have lost their last three matches in all competitions. Estonia are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions. Luxembourg have failed to score in their last three matches in all competitions. Estonia have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches in all competitions. Luxembourg (fourth) and Estonia (second) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Estonia the stronger side, 215 rating points above Luxembourg (Estonia 1410, Luxembourg 1195, after at least 28 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 3 October 2026, finished Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg.

Team news

Predicted Luxembourg XI (4-1-4-1): A. Moris, D. Carlson, F. Bohnert, E. Mahmutović, V. Selimović, J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz, V. Thill, O. Natami, H. Kadamani, L. Barreiro, J. Pereira — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, V. Thill (3.7 per match over five appearances, one goal) and A. Moris (3.1 per match over five appearances) have been Luxembourg’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Luxembourg (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), V. Thill averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 427 minutes, with a key pass in three of the last six appearances. A. Moris averages 3.0 saves per 90 over 1174 minutes, with two or more saves in six of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Estonia XI (5-3-2): M. Igonen, M. Paskotši, M. Kuusk, K. Mets, M. Schjønning-Larsen, E. Tougjas, M. Poom, M. Kait, K. Palumets, P. Kristal, M. Männilaan — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, R. Peetson (5.2 per match over three appearances, one goal and one assist) and Maksim Paskotši (3.3 per match over four appearances, one goal) have been Estonia’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Estonia (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), R. Peetson averages 1.0 key passes per 90 over 270 minutes. Maksim Paskotši averages 1.7 tackles per 90 over 1001 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Fri, 13 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · UEFA Nations League
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 1): Luxembourg 0 · draws 0 · Estonia 1 · 1 goals/game
Recent form: Luxembourg 2W 0D 3L · Estonia 1W 3D 1L

Luxembourg v Estonia (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 8 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.88 / 0.63

Goals

against 1.25 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

3.25 / 3.13

Corners

against 4.25 / 6.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

3.63 / 3.63

Shots on target

against 5.38 / 5.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.88 / 2.13

Cards

against 2.88 / 2.25 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 6 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Luxembourg for / against	Line	Estonia for / against
Goals scored	0.88 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	0.63 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.25 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.13 for · 6.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	10.63 for · 12 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	8.75 for · 19.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.63 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.63 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	13.63 for · 12 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	16.25 for · 10.13 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.88 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.13 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5

Luxembourg

Luxembourg Goalkeeper

Luxembourg — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
A. Moris	4	79315 min	185.1 /90	41.1 /90	00 /90

Luxembourg — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luxembourg before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
A. Moris n 8	81.8	4.5 7/6
T. Pereira Cardoso n 4	57.5	2 2/1

Luxembourg Defensive

Luxembourg — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Carlson	4	90360 min	20.5 /90	112.8 /90	10.3 /90	246 /90	51.3 /90	20.5 /90
F. Bohnert	4	88353 min	30.8 /90	41 /90	10.3 /90	123.1 /90	51.3 /90	00 /90
E. Mahmutović	3	88263 min	41.4 /90	20.7 /90	10.3 /90	113.8 /90	51.7 /90	20.7 /90
V. Selimović	2	90180 min	10.5 /90	00 /90	10.5 /90	73.5 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90
L. Jans	2	53105 min	10.9 /90	32.6 /90	00 /90	65.1 /90	10.9 /90	00 /90
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Luxembourg — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luxembourg before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
D. Carlson n 8	90	0.6 2/1	0.9 3/2	—
F. Bohnert n 8	79.4	1.3 7/2	0.6 3/1	—
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz n 8	56.4	1 3/2	0.6 3/0	—
A. Moris n 8	81.8	0 0/0	0.4 3/0	—
V. Thill n 8	67.4	1.5 7/1	2.2 7/3	—
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Luxembourg — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luxembourg before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
D. Carlson n 8	90	1.1 5/3
F. Bohnert n 8	79.4	1.3 5/3
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz n 8	56.4	0.4 2/0
V. Thill n 8	67.4	2.5 5/4
Aiman Dardari n 8	72.8	0.3 2/0
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Luxembourg Attacking

Luxembourg — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Aiman Dardari	4	70280 min	00 /90	00 /90	41.3 /90	20.6 /90	31 /90	82.6 /90
Jayson Videira Pereira	3	54163 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.6 /90	00 /90	10.6 /90	00 /90
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz	4	81322 min	00 /90	00 /90	30.8 /90	20.6 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
V. Thill	4	74297 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	61.8 /90	41.2 /90	72.1 /90	20.6 /90
Hamza Kadamani	4	69277 min	00 /90	00 /90	20.6 /90	10.3 /90	20.6 /90	51.6 /90
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Luxembourg — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luxembourg before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
D. Carlson n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
F. Bohnert n 8	79.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz n 8	56.4	0.8 4/0	0.6 3/0
A. Moris n 8	81.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
V. Thill n 8	67.4	1.8 8/2	1.2 6/1
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Luxembourg — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luxembourg before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
D. Carlson n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
F. Bohnert n 8	79.4	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz n 8	56.4	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
A. Moris n 8	81.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
V. Thill n 8	67.4	0.5 3/0	0 0/0
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Estonia

Estonia Goalkeeper

Estonia — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
K. Hein	2	90180 min	94.5 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90
Matvei Igonen	2	90180 min	42 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Estonia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estonia before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
K. Hein n 8	90	4.8 8/6
Matvei Igonen n 5	90	2.8 4/1

Estonia Defensive

Estonia — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
M. Paskotši	4	90360 min	61.5 /90	51.3 /90	30.8 /90	123 /90	112.8 /90	10.3 /90
M. Schjønning-Larsen	4	75299 min	41.2 /90	41.2 /90	10.3 /90	92.7 /90	30.9 /90	10.3 /90
Karol Mets	3	90270 min	41.3 /90	20.7 /90	10.3 /90	124 /90	51.7 /90	20.7 /90
M. Kuusk	3	90270 min	41.3 /90	31 /90	00 /90	124 /90	51.7 /90	10.3 /90
Erko Jonne Tougjas	2	90180 min	10.5 /90	10.5 /90	21 /90	52.5 /90	31.5 /90	00 /90
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Estonia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estonia before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Paskotši n 8	88.8	1.8 6/4	0.1 1/0	—
M. Poom n 8	73.4	1.2 4/3	0.5 3/0	—
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 8	76.8	0.6 3/1	1.2 3/2	—
P. Kristal n 8	63.3	2.7 6/5	2.7 7/5	—
K. Palumets n 8	70.3	0.5 3/0	0.3 2/0	—
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Estonia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estonia before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
M. Poom n 8	73.4	1.5 7/3
M. Paskotši n 8	88.8	1.1 5/3
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 8	76.8	0.9 5/1
P. Kristal n 8	63.3	2.1 8/2
K. Palumets n 8	70.3	1 5/1
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Estonia Attacking

Estonia — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Karel Mustmaa	4	44176 min	00 /90	00 /90	31.5 /90	21 /90	00 /90	00 /90
M. Männilaan	3	57172 min	00 /90	00 /90	31.6 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90
R. Saarma	2	82164 min	00 /90	00 /90	42.2 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Mihkel Ainsalu	1	6161 min	00 /90	00 /90	11.5 /90	11.5 /90	11.5 /90	00 /90
M. Poom	4	90360 min	00 /90	00 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90
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Estonia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estonia before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Poom n 8	73.4	1.1 4/3	0 0/0
M. Paskotši n 8	88.8	0.9 6/1	0.5 3/1
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 8	76.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
P. Kristal n 8	63.3	1.1 5/1	0.2 1/0
K. Palumets n 8	70.3	0.6 2/2	0.5 2/1
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Estonia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estonia before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Paskotši n 8	88.8	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
M. Poom n 8	73.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 8	76.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
P. Kristal n 8	63.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. Palumets n 8	70.3	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Luxembourg v Estonia — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

LuxembourgWWLLL

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

EstoniaLDDWD

Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 0.6 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 1

Luxembourg 0 · 0 draws · Estonia 1 · 1 goals/game

2026-10-03 Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg

League standing · 2026/27

Luxembourg#4 pos3 pts4 pl-5 GD

Estonia#2 pos6 pts4 pl+1 GD

Goals per game

Luxembourg scored0.5

Estonia scored0.5

Luxembourg conceded1.75

Estonia conceded0.25

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Luxembourg v Estonia?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Luxembourg v Estonia is Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Luxembourg and Estonia?: In their last 1 meetings, Luxembourg won 0, Estonia won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 1 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Luxembourg and Estonia?: Recent form — Luxembourg 2W 0D 3L; Estonia 1W 3D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 8 Nov 2026, 11:45 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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