Portugal v Spain result

Full-time · Portugal 0–1 Spain

World Cup · · AT&T Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Portugal · Spain · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Portugal 0–1 Spain — Spain won this World Cup match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
Best price: 2.05 at Betano
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 52.4% of 187 landed (95% range 45.3–59.4%); it had given them 77.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Spain won 1–0 at AT&T Stadium in the World Cup on Monday 6 July.

Spain are unbeaten in their last 15 matches — every result checked.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Spain: Mikel Merino (90’, assisted by Ferran Torres).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Mikel Merino’s goal on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Portugal 0.63, Spain 1.69, from 10 shots to 15 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Anthony Taylor, England showed three yellow cards — against 4.7 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Portugal: Bernardo Silva (89’) and Renato Veiga (90+4’); Spain: Ferran Torres (90+8’).

What it changes

Spain have kept a clean sheet in their last five matches.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Lamine Yamal (Spain) 6.2, João Neves (Portugal) 4.9 and João Félix (Portugal) 4.7 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 52.4% of the time in the last 90 days (98 of 187).

Next up

Portugal next host Denmark on 14 November 2026.

Spain next travel to Czechia on 12 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Portugal: Portugal v Denmark, Saturday 14 November — the preview. Next for Spain: Czechia v Spain, Thursday 12 November — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Portugal 0–1 Spain · World Cup
  • Venue: AT&T Stadium · Dallas
  • Referee: Anthony Taylor, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Portugal 0 · draws 5 · Spain 1 · 2.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Portugal 3W 2D 0L · Spain 4W 1D 0L

Portugal 0–1 Spain (World Cup): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 1.88
Goals
against 0.5 / 0.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
4.75 / 7.57
Corners
against 2.75 / 1 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.13 / 6.29
Shots on target
against 3.13 / 1.14 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.25 / 0.57
Cards
against 1.13 / 2.29 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 3 July 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 3 July 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gamePortugal for / againstLineSpain for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 0.5 against n 8
2.75our book
1.88 for · 0.25 against n 8
Corners won
4.75 for · 2.75 against n 8
9.5standard
7.57 for · 1 against n 7
Shots
12 for · 10.25 against n 8
19.5standard
18.57 for · 4 against n 7
Shots on target
4.13 for · 3.13 against n 8
8.5standard
6.29 for · 1.14 against n 7
Fouls committed
8.25 for · 12 against n 8
21.5standard
10.71 for · 7.57 against n 7
Cards shown
1.25 for · 1.13 against n 8
3.5standard
0.57 for · 2.29 against n 7

Referee: Anthony Taylor, England.

Portugal
Portugal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Samú Costa n 867.1
27/3
2.27/4
—
João Félix n 869.6
1.87/2
2.16/5
Alex Baena
Francisco Conceição n 858.1
1.75/2
2.36/4
—
Gonçalo Ramos n 839.5
1.73/2
2.35/2
—
Rúben Dias n 878.4
1.36/3
0.63/1
—
Portugal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Cristiano Ronaldo n 878.9
3.48/6
1.66/2
João Félix n 869.6
2.66/5
1.55/3
Rafael Leão n 841
2.56/2
0.52/0
Gonçalo Guedes n 857.8
1.96/2
14/1
Gonçalo Ramos n 839.5
1.73/2
0.62/0
Portugal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
João Félix n 869.6
0.62/1
0.21/0
Gonçalo Guedes n 857.8
0.62/1
0.21/0
Bruno Fernandes n 881
0.32/0
0.43/0
Cristiano Ronaldo n 878.9
0.73/2
00/0
Pedro Neto n 864.1
0.21/0
0.53/0
Portugal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Samú Costa n 867.1
2.57/4
Diogo Dalot n 864.4
2.46/4
João Cancelo n 861.3
2.25/4
João Neves n 870.5
2.16/3
Nélson Semedo n 845.4
25/2
Portugal — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Diogo Costa n 888.4
2.75/3
Rui Silva n 889.4
2.35/4
Spain
Spain — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Mikel Merino n 837.4
36/2
1.23/1
—
Gavi n 865
2.37/4
1.46/2
—
Cristhian Mosquera n 859.8
2.17/2
1.14/2
—
Alex Baena n 860.1
1.54/2
0.94/1
João Félix
Yeremy Pino n 852.8
1.55/2
1.33/3
—
Spain — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Lamine Yamal n 867.4
3.57/6
26/4
Mikel Oyarzabal n 865.9
3.26/4
1.74/3
Ferran Torres n 849
37/6
1.65/2
Fabián Ruiz n 849.6
2.34/2
0.52/0
Alex Baena n 860.1
1.97/3
0.74/0
Spain — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Mikel Oyarzabal n 865.9
0.93/2
0.32/0
Lamine Yamal n 867.4
0.74/0
0.31/1
Ferran Torres n 849
0.52/0
0.21/0
Borja Iglesias n 848.8
0.73/0
00/0
Barrenetxea n 859
0.21/0
0.42/0
Spain — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Pedro Porro n 887.9
3.58/5
Marcos Llorente n 885.3
3.38/6
Gavi n 865
3.17/6
Rodri n 886.3
2.57/6
Fabián Ruiz n 849.6
2.54/4
Spain — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 3 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
David Raya n 893.8
26/4
Joan García n 887.9
1.94/3
Unai Simón n 890
1.54/1

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
PortugalSpain
45%Possession55%
0.63Expected goals (xG)1.69
10Shots15
2Shots on target6
5Shots off target6
3Blocked shots3
7Shots inside the box8
3Corners7
2Offsides1
9Fouls13
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
5Saves2
427Passes530
84%Pass accuracy88%

Portugal player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Diogo Costa9000000007.3
Rúben Dias9000000006.7
Renato Veiga90000001Y6.9
João Neves9000100407.2
Bruno Fernandes9000102007
Cristiano Ronaldo9000321006.9
Vitinha8300000006.7
Pedro Neto8300000106.9
João Cancelo7100100107
João Félix7100002206.9
Nuno Mendes5600001407.2
Nélson Semedo sub3400000006.3
Diogo Dalot sub1900000106.5
Rafael Leão sub1900000006.6
Bernardo Silva sub16001000Y6.3
Francisco Conceição sub1600001006.9

Spain player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Unai Simón9000000007.3
Pedro Porro9000100407.2
Pau Cubarsí Paredes9000000006.9
Aymeric Laporte9000000006.7
Marc Cucurella9000000006.3
Rodri9000101407.5
Lamine Yamal9000220507.3
Mikel Oyarzabal8900212006.2
Pedri8500001106.3
Dani Olmo8500102106.9
Alex Baena7500320306.6
Ferran Torres sub15011010Y6.2
Fabián Ruiz sub1400000006.7
Mikel Merino sub1410110007.6
Borja Iglesias sub10000000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Portugal v Spain — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
PortugalWDWDW
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
SpainWDWWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.2 scored / 0.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Portugal 0 · 5 draws · Spain 1 · 2.17 goals/game
  • 2025-06-08 Portugal 2–2 Spain
  • 2022-09-27 Portugal 0–1 Spain
  • 2022-06-02 Spain 1–1 Portugal
  • 2021-06-04 Spain 0–0 Portugal
  • 2020-10-07 Portugal 0–0 Spain
  • 2018-06-15 Portugal 3–3 Spain
League standing · 2026/27
Portugal#2 pos5 pts3 pl+5 GD
Spain#1 pos7 pts3 pl+5 GD
Goals per game
Portugal scored2
Spain scored1.67
Portugal conceded0.33
Spain conceded0

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Portugal vs Spain?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Portugal v Spain was Under 2.5 goals (best price 2.05 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Portugal and Spain?
In their last 6 meetings, Portugal won 0, Spain won 1 and there were 5 draws, averaging 2.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Portugal and Spain?
Recent form — Portugal 3W 2D 0L; Spain 4W 1D 0L.

Today’s boards

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