Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart result

Full-time · Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart

Bundesliga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 14:30 BST · Volksparkstadion

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 03:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Hamburger SV · VfB Stuttgart · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart — Hamburger SV won this Bundesliga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Draw or Away.

Free pick

Draw or Away

Best price: 1.27 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 68.1% of 1452 landed (95% range 65.7–70.5%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated draw or away (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 829 of 1,283 times (64.6%), against an average rating of 69.6%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said VfB Stuttgart: 2.65 to 1.68 in expected goals, from 24 shots to 14, ahead on xG from the 52nd minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The result went the other way.

The result

Hamburger SV beat VfB Stuttgart 1–0 at Volksparkstadion in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Hamburger SV: M. Muheim (88’, assisted by Zakaria El Ouahdi).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with M. Muheim’s goal on 88 minutes.

Discipline

Robert Hartmann, Germany showed three yellow cards — against 2.8 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Hamburger SV: Warmed Omari (54’), N. Capaldo (82’) and Otto Emerson Stange (85’).

What it changes

Hamburger SV move up from 10th to sixth (six league matches played). Hamburger SV have scored seven goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 8 games). Hamburger SV have conceded 19 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

VfB Stuttgart move down from 10th to 13th (six league matches played). VfB Stuttgart have scored 14 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 8 games). VfB Stuttgart have conceded 15 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Hamburger SV have won their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, M. Muheim (Hamburger SV) 6.7, Martin Adeline (Hamburger SV) 6.0 and Daniel Heuer Fernandes (Hamburger SV) 5.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, the draw or VfB Stuttgart, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.1% of the time in the last 90 days (989 of 1452).

Next up

Hamburger SV next host Borussia Mönchengladbach on 6 November 2026.

VfB Stuttgart next host Werder Bremen on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Hamburger SV: Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach, Friday 6 November — the preview. Next for VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
Venue: Volksparkstadion · Hamburg
Referee: Robert Hartmann, Germany
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Hamburger SV 1 · draws 0 · VfB Stuttgart 5 · 3.67 goals/game
Recent form: Hamburger SV 2W 0D 3L · VfB Stuttgart 3W 0D 2L

Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 31 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 2.25

Goals

against 2.25 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

3 / 6.38

Corners

against 5.13 / 5.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.5 / 6.13

Shots on target

against 5.63 / 5 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.25 / 1.25

Cards

against 2.25 / 2 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

2.82 yellows

Referee · Robert Hartmann, Germany

22.64 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 11 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 14 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 14 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Hamburger SV for / against	Line	VfB Stuttgart for / against
Goals scored	1.5 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5	3.5our book	2.25 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	6.38 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	12 for · 16.88 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	16.63 for · 16.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.5 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	6.13 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	13.88 for · 11.5 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.38 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.25 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.25 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Robert Hartmann, Germany — 2.82 yellow cards a game, 0.09 red cards, 22.64 fouls over 11 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV Goalkeeper

Hamburger SV — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Daniel Heuer Fernandes	5	90450 min	163.2 /90	153 /90	00 /90
S. Tangvik	1	9090 min	44 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Hamburger SV — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hamburger SV before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Daniel Heuer Fernandes n 8	90	3.1 6/6

Hamburger SV Defensive

Hamburger SV — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
N. Capaldo	6	88525 min	193.3 /90	122.1 /90	20.3 /90	366.2 /90	111.9 /90	10.2 /90
S. Bornauw	4	90360 min	30.8 /90	82 /90	51.3 /90	123 /90	51.3 /90	00 /90
J. Torunarigha	4	77307 min	30.9 /90	61.8 /90	41.2 /90	133.8 /90	72.1 /90	00 /90
S. Nandja	3	69208 min	20.9 /90	20.9 /90	20.9 /90	41.7 /90	31.3 /90	10.4 /90
W. Omari	3	66197 min	10.5 /90	52.3 /90	31.4 /90	73.2 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90
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Hamburger SV — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hamburger SV before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
N. Capaldo n 8	88.1	1.8 7/5	1.7 5/2	J. Chabot
N. Remberg n 8	83.9	1.2 7/2	0.7 4/1	—
Daniel Heuer Fernandes n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
A. Grønbæk n 8	81.9	0.7 4/1	1.8 6/3	—
A. Sambi Lokonga n 8	80.3	1.3 5/2	1 5/1	—
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Hamburger SV — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hamburger SV before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
N. Capaldo n 8	88.1	2.9 8/6
N. Remberg n 8	83.9	1.5 5/3
A. Grønbæk n 8	81.9	2.9 6/5
A. Sambi Lokonga n 8	80.3	1.3 6/3
P. Daka n 5	59.6	1.8 4/2
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Hamburger SV Attacking

Hamburger SV — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Grønbæk	5	79397 min	20.5 /90	20.5 /90	51.1 /90	40.9 /90	71.6 /90	61.4 /90
P. Daka	5	60298 min	00 /90	10.3 /90	72.1 /90	00 /90	51.5 /90	41.2 /90
M. Adeline	4	69276 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	20.7 /90	00 /90
Fábio Vieira	4	61242 min	00 /90	00 /90	72.6 /90	62.2 /90	31.1 /90	41.5 /90
T. Moffi	4	44177 min	00 /90	00 /90	31.5 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90
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Hamburger SV — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hamburger SV before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
N. Capaldo n 8	88.1	0.9 4/2	0.4 2/1
N. Remberg n 8	83.9	0.7 4/1	0.1 1/0
Daniel Heuer Fernandes n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Grønbæk n 8	81.9	1.1 4/3	0.8 3/3
A. Sambi Lokonga n 8	80.3	0.6 3/1	0.3 2/0
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Hamburger SV — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Hamburger SV before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
N. Capaldo n 8	88.1	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
N. Remberg n 8	83.9	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
Daniel Heuer Fernandes n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Grønbæk n 8	81.9	0.4 2/1	0.5 3/1
A. Sambi Lokonga n 8	80.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
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VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart Goalkeeper

VfB Stuttgart — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
F. Bredlow	7	90630 min	243.4 /90	91.3 /90	00 /90
D. Seimen	1	9090 min	44 /90	00 /90	00 /90

VfB Stuttgart — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfB Stuttgart before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
F. Bredlow n 8	90	3.2 6/4

VfB Stuttgart Defensive

VfB Stuttgart — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Chabot	8	86686 min	131.7 /90	141.8 /90	40.5 /90	648.4 /90	101.3 /90	10.1 /90
Finn Jeltsch	8	79629 min	91.3 /90	81.1 /90	40.6 /90	344.9 /90	91.3 /90	10.1 /90
M. Mittelstädt	7	88614 min	172.5 /90	111.6 /90	71 /90	395.7 /90	60.9 /90	10.1 /90
R. Hendriks	5	74370 min	81.9 /90	30.7 /90	10.2 /90	286.8 /90	10.2 /90	10.2 /90
Y. Spalt	1	5555 min	23.3 /90	11.6 /90	00 /90	58.2 /90	34.9 /90	00 /90
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VfB Stuttgart — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfB Stuttgart before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Chabot n 8	85.8	1.3 5/3	0.8 4/2	N. Capaldo
A. Stiller n 8	81	1.3 6/2	1.1 6/2	—
J. Vagnoman n 8	79.5	0.8 3/2	0.7 3/2	—
Finn Jeltsch n 8	78.6	1.3 5/2	1 5/2	—
D. Undav n 8	73.5	2 6/4	0.3 2/0	—
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VfB Stuttgart — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfB Stuttgart before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Chabot n 8	85.8	1.7 6/5
A. Stiller n 8	81	0.8 4/2
J. Vagnoman n 8	79.5	1 5/1
Finn Jeltsch n 8	78.6	1.3 4/3
D. Undav n 8	73.5	0.6 3/1
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VfB Stuttgart Attacking

VfB Stuttgart — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
D. Undav	8	74588 min	10.2 /90	40.6 /90	121.8 /90	60.9 /90	182.8 /90	30.5 /90
D. Pejčinović	7	65454 min	30.6 /90	00 /90	112.2 /90	51 /90	51 /90	20.4 /90
E. Demirović	6	57341 min	41.1 /90	00 /90	143.7 /90	102.6 /90	20.5 /90	10.3 /90
J. Leweling	6	39232 min	00 /90	00 /90	51.9 /90	20.8 /90	31.2 /90	83.1 /90
Tiago Tomás	2	74148 min	10.6 /90	10.6 /90	53 /90	31.8 /90	10.6 /90	21.2 /90
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VfB Stuttgart — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfB Stuttgart before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Chabot n 8	85.8	1.4 6/4	0.7 4/1
A. Stiller n 8	81	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
J. Vagnoman n 8	79.5	1.1 5/3	0.6 4/0
Finn Jeltsch n 8	78.6	0.9 2/2	0.1 1/0
D. Undav n 8	73.5	1.8 6/2	0.9 4/1
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VfB Stuttgart — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfB Stuttgart before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Chabot n 8	85.8	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
A. Stiller n 8	81	0 0/0	0.6 3/1
J. Vagnoman n 8	79.5	0.3 2/0	0.3 2/0
Finn Jeltsch n 8	78.6	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
D. Undav n 8	73.5	0.2 1/0	0.6 2/2
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Hamburger SV		VfB Stuttgart
34%	Possession	66%
1.50	Expected goals (xG)	2.28
14	Shots	24
3	Shots on target	5
9	Shots off target	12
2	Blocked shots	7
8	Shots inside the box	15
5	Corners	9
12	Fouls	9
3	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
5	Saves	2
313	Passes	627
77%	Pass accuracy	92%

Hamburger SV Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Daniel Heuer Fernandes	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8
N. Capaldo	90	0	0	2	1	0	1	Y	6.6
S. Bornauw	90	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	7.6
W. Omari	90	0	0	0	0	2	2	Y	7.9
D. Møller Wolfe	90	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	7.9
M. Muheim	90	1	0	1	1	4	1	0	8
B. Nadir	84	0	0	2	0	1	3	0	7.9
M. Adeline	78	0	0	0	0	2	5	0	7.5
L. Lemke	78	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	7
Fábio Vieira	78	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	6.9
Y. Poulsen	61	0	0	3	0	0	2	0	6.7
Otto Emerson Stange sub	29	0	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.2
T. Moffi sub	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
A. Grønbæk sub	12	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
Zakaria El Ouahdi sub	12	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	6.9
Kofi Jeremy Amoako sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7

VfB Stuttgart Player Stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
D. Seimen	90	0	0	0	0	7.9
J. Vagnoman	90	3	1	0	1	6.6
Finn Jeltsch	90	3	1	1	0	7.3
J. Chabot	90	0	0	0	3	7.7
A. Stiller	90	1	0	2	0	7.2
D. Undav	90	2	1	0	0	6.2
R. Hendriks	89	0	0	2	1	7.7
J. Leweling	77	0	0	3	0	6.9
E. Demirović	77	4	1	0	0	5.9
A. Karazor	67	0	0	2	2	7
B. El Khannouss	67	1	0	5	2	8.2
G. Prömel sub	23	0	0	1	1	6.9
C. Führich sub	23	1	1	2	0	7.2
L. Sauer sub	13	0	0	1	0	6.3
D. Pejčinović sub	13	2	0	1	0	6.3
L. Assignon sub	1	0	0	0	0	–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Hamburger SVLLLWW

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1 scored / 3 conceded per game

VfB StuttgartWLLWW

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.8 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Hamburger SV 1 · 0 draws · VfB Stuttgart 5 · 3.67 goals/game

2026-04-12 VfB Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburger SV
2025-11-30 Hamburger SV 2–1 VfB Stuttgart
2023-06-05 Hamburger SV 1–3 VfB Stuttgart
2023-06-01 VfB Stuttgart 3–0 Hamburger SV
2020-05-28 VfB Stuttgart 3–2 Hamburger SV
2019-10-29 Hamburger SV 1–2 VfB Stuttgart

League standing · 2026/27

Hamburger SV#15 pos9 pts8 pl-12 GD

VfB Stuttgart#11 pos9 pts8 pl-1 GD

Goals per game

Hamburger SV scored0.88

VfB Stuttgart scored1.75

Hamburger SV conceded2.38

VfB Stuttgart conceded1.88

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Hamburger SV 1.68 xG from 14 shots, VfB Stuttgart 2.65 from 24. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Hamburger SV (attacking right)VfB Stuttgart (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
Hamburger SV	14	1	1.68
VfB Stuttgart	24	0	2.65

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, VfB Stuttgart led on xG, 1.35 to 0.83. At full time, VfB Stuttgart led on xG, 2.65 to 1.68. The widest gap was 0.97 xG to VfB Stuttgart, in the 92nd minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)

Hamburger SV 1.68 xGVfB Stuttgart 2.65 xGdots = goals · 38 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart was Draw or Away (best price 1.27 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart?: In their last 6 meetings, Hamburger SV won 1, VfB Stuttgart won 5 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart?: Recent form — Hamburger SV 2W 0D 3L; VfB Stuttgart 3W 0D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 31 Oct 2026, 03:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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