SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart result

Full-time · SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart

Bundesliga · Sat, 10 Oct 2026 14:30 BST · Home Deluxe Arena

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: SC Paderborn 07 · VfB Stuttgart

The model’s pre-match pick

SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart — VfB Stuttgart won this Bundesliga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Draw or Away.

Free pick

Draw or Away

Best price: 1.20 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 68.1% of 1431 landed (95% range 65.7–70.5%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated draw or away (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 853 of 1,316 times (64.8%), against an average rating of 69.7%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said VfB Stuttgart: 2.60 to 2.11 in expected goals, from 18 shots to 23, ahead on xG from the fourth minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

VfB Stuttgart won 2–0 at Home Deluxe Arena in the Bundesliga on Saturday 10 October.

The goals

VfB Stuttgart led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — VfB Stuttgart: Julian Chabot (25’, assisted by Angelo Stiller) and Chris Führich (83’, assisted by Angelo Stiller).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Julian Chabot’s goal on 25 minutes.

Discipline

Felix Zwayer, Germany showed one yellow card — against 3.3 yellows a game across the last 15 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — SC Paderborn 07: Marvin Pieringer (45’).

What it changes

SC Paderborn 07 move down from 12th to 15th (five league matches played). SC Paderborn 07 have scored three goals, the second-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 5 games, ranked per game). SC Paderborn 07 have conceded seven goals, the sixth-fewest of the 18 clubs.

VfB Stuttgart move up from 14th to 10th (five league matches played). VfB Stuttgart have scored eight goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 5 games, ranked per game). VfB Stuttgart have conceded nine goals, the ninth-most of the 18 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Angelo Stiller (VfB Stuttgart) 10.3, Chris Führich (VfB Stuttgart) 8.5 and Mattes Hansen (SC Paderborn 07) 8.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, the draw or VfB Stuttgart, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.1% of the time in the last 90 days (975 of 1431).

Next up

SC Paderborn 07 next travel to Bayer Leverkusen on 21 November 2026.

VfB Stuttgart next travel to FC Schalke 04 on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for SC Paderborn 07: Bayer Leverkusen v SC Paderborn 07, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for VfB Stuttgart: FC Schalke 04 v VfB Stuttgart, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
Venue: Home Deluxe Arena · Paderborn
Referee: Felix Zwayer, Germany
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 1): SC Paderborn 07 0 · draws 0 · VfB Stuttgart 1 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: SC Paderborn 07 2W 1D 2L · VfB Stuttgart 2W 0D 3L

SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 24 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 1.88

Goals

against 1 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

4 / 5.88

Corners

against 6.29 / 4.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

3.43 / 5.38

Shots on target

against 5.71 / 5.75 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2.14 / 1.5

Cards

against 1.43 / 2 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

3.27 yellows

Referee · Felix Zwayer, Germany

21 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 15 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 20 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	SC Paderborn 07 for / against	Line	VfB Stuttgart for / against
Goals scored	1.25 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5	3.5our book	1.88 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4 for · 6.29 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	5.88 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	11.43 for · 18.43 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	15 for · 14.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.43 for · 5.71 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	5.38 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11 for · 11.86 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	10.25 for · 10.38 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.14 for · 1.43 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	1.5 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Felix Zwayer, Germany — 3.27 yellow cards a game, 0.13 red cards, 21 fouls over 15 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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SC Paderborn 07

SC Paderborn 07 Goalkeeper

SC Paderborn 07 — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
N. Noll	4	90360 min	143.5 /90	51.3 /90	00 /90
M. Schubert	1	9090 min	44 /90	22 /90	00 /90

SC Paderborn 07 — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
N. Noll n 4	90	3.5 3/3
M. Schubert n 3	91.7	2.9 3/2

SC Paderborn 07 Defensive

SC Paderborn 07 — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
T. Scheller	5	90450 min	102 /90	40.8 /90	71.4 /90	306 /90	20.4 /90	10.2 /90
J. ter Horst	5	88442 min	102 /90	142.9 /90	71.4 /90	234.7 /90	51 /90	10.2 /90
M. Hansen	5	80398 min	71.6 /90	92 /90	40.9 /90	214.7 /90	30.7 /90	10.2 /90
Jonah Benedict Sticker	2	2142 min	24.3 /90	12.1 /90	12.1 /90	24.3 /90	12.1 /90	00 /90
F. Götze	1	1515 min	16 /90	212 /90	16 /90	16 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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SC Paderborn 07 — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
S. Castañeda n 8	86.9	0.9 5/2	1.8 7/5	—
T. Scheller n 8	90	0.3 2/0	0.4 2/1	J. Chabot
J. ter Horst n 5	88.4	1 3/2	0.6 3/0	M. Mittelstädt
L. Curda n 8	87.1	1.8 6/4	1.5 7/2	—
L. Ulrich n 5	81.2	0.9 3/1	2.4 5/4	—
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SC Paderborn 07 — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
S. Castañeda n 8	86.9	2.2 7/5
T. Scheller n 8	90	1.4 6/3
J. ter Horst n 5	88.4	2 5/2
L. Curda n 8	87.1	2.8 7/7
L. Ulrich n 5	81.2	1.6 2/2
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SC Paderborn 07 Attacking

SC Paderborn 07 — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
S. Tigges	5	31154 min	10.6 /90	00 /90	84.7 /90	10.6 /90	10.6 /90	21.2 /90
M. Pieringer	4	77306 min	00 /90	00 /90	30.9 /90	10.3 /90	41.2 /90	00 /90
S. Marino	4	70279 min	20.6 /90	00 /90	72.3 /90	41.3 /90	31 /90	10.3 /90
R. Philippe	2	3162 min	00 /90	00 /90	22.9 /90	22.9 /90	11.5 /90	00 /90
A. Millgramm	1	4545 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	12 /90	00 /90
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SC Paderborn 07 — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
S. Castañeda n 8	86.9	1 6/2	0.5 4/0
T. Scheller n 8	90	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
J. ter Horst n 5	88.4	0.4 2/0	0.2 1/0
L. Curda n 8	87.1	0.9 4/2	0.1 1/0
L. Ulrich n 5	81.2	0.9 2/2	0 0/0
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SC Paderborn 07 — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
S. Castañeda n 8	86.9	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
T. Scheller n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. ter Horst n 5	88.4	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
L. Curda n 8	87.1	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
L. Ulrich n 5	81.2	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
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VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart Goalkeeper

VfB Stuttgart — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
F. Bredlow	6	90540 min	233.8 /90	91.5 /90	00 /90

VfB Stuttgart — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfB Stuttgart before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
F. Bredlow n 8	90	3.5 7/5

VfB Stuttgart Defensive

VfB Stuttgart — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Chabot	6	87524 min	122.1 /90	111.9 /90	40.7 /90	508.6 /90	91.5 /90	10.2 /90
M. Mittelstädt	6	87524 min	101.7 /90	101.7 /90	50.9 /90	295 /90	40.7 /90	10.2 /90
Finn Jeltsch	6	87521 min	91.6 /90	61 /90	20.3 /90	305.2 /90	81.4 /90	10.2 /90
R. Hendriks	3	63190 min	31.4 /90	31.4 /90	10.5 /90	146.6 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Y. Spalt	1	5555 min	23.3 /90	11.6 /90	00 /90	58.2 /90	34.9 /90	00 /90
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VfB Stuttgart — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfB Stuttgart before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
F. Bredlow n 8	90	0 0/0	0.4 3/0	—
G. Prömel n 6	89	1 5/1	1 5/1	—
J. Chabot n 8	88	1.4 5/4	0.8 4/2	T. Scheller
M. Mittelstädt n 8	85.9	0.7 5/0	1.2 5/2	J. ter Horst
Finn Jeltsch n 8	74	1.2 4/2	1.1 5/2	—
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VfB Stuttgart — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfB Stuttgart before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
G. Prömel n 6	89	0.7 3/1
M. Mittelstädt n 8	85.9	2.5 6/4
J. Chabot n 8	88	2.2 7/6
Finn Jeltsch n 8	74	1.7 6/3
A. Stiller n 8	82.3	1.2 5/4
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VfB Stuttgart Attacking

VfB Stuttgart — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
D. Undav	6	69413 min	00 /90	40.9 /90	71.5 /90	20.4 /90	112.4 /90	20.4 /90
D. Pejčinović	6	64383 min	30.7 /90	00 /90	112.6 /90	51.2 /90	40.9 /90	20.5 /90
E. Demirović	5	53264 min	41.4 /90	00 /90	103.4 /90	72.4 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90
J. Leweling	4	34136 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.3 /90	00 /90	21.3 /90	64 /90
Tiago Tomás	2	74148 min	10.6 /90	10.6 /90	53 /90	31.8 /90	10.6 /90	21.2 /90
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VfB Stuttgart — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfB Stuttgart before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
F. Bredlow n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
G. Prömel n 6	89	1 5/1	0.5 3/0
J. Chabot n 8	88	1.2 5/3	0.5 3/1
M. Mittelstädt n 8	85.9	0.8 4/2	0.4 3/0
Finn Jeltsch n 8	74	0.9 2/2	0.2 1/0
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VfB Stuttgart — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfB Stuttgart before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
F. Bredlow n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
G. Prömel n 6	89	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
M. Mittelstädt n 8	85.9	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
J. Chabot n 8	88	0 0/0	0 0/0
Finn Jeltsch n 8	74	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
SC Paderborn 07		VfB Stuttgart
52%	Possession	48%
1.96	Expected goals (xG)	2.47
24	Shots	18
6	Shots on target	8
10	Shots off target	5
8	Blocked shots	5
16	Shots inside the box	16
7	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
10	Fouls	11
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
5	Saves	4
489	Passes	458
82%	Pass accuracy	78%

SC Paderborn 07 Player Stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
G. Vidovic	90	1	0	3	3	0	7.9
S. Castañeda	90	1	1	0	1	0	6.6
L. Curda	90	2	1	3	3	0	7.9
R. Obermair	90	1	1	1	1	0	7.7
J. ter Horst	90	1	0	0	2	0	6.2
N. Noll	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
M. Hansen	85	0	0	2	6	0	7.3
T. Scheller	85	0	0	1	3	0	7.7
L. Ulrich	80	2	0	2	3	0	6.5
S. Marino	70	0	0	1	0	0	6.2
M. Pieringer	70	2	0	1	0	Y	6.7
R. Philippe sub	20	1	1	1	0	0	6.3
S. Tigges sub	20	4	1	2	0	0	6.7
O. Batista Meier sub	10	1	1	0	1	0	6.5
F. Götze sub	9	0	0	1	0	0	6.9
Jonah Benedict Sticker sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	6.7

VfB Stuttgart Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
J. Vagnoman	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.6
R. Hendriks	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	7.7
A. Karazor	90	0	0	0	0	0	4	7.6
M. Mittelstädt	90	0	0	0	0	1	7	9.3
A. Stiller	90	0	2	0	0	5	1	8.6
D. Seimen	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.2
C. Führich	85	1	0	2	2	1	3	8.3
D. Undav	85	0	0	1	1	4	1	6.3
E. Demirović	77	0	0	4	3	1	0	6.3
J. Leweling	77	0	0	2	1	0	0	6.7
J. Chabot	72	1	0	2	1	0	0	8
Finn Jeltsch sub	18	0	0	0	0	1	0	7.3
B. El Khannouss sub	13	0	0	0	0	1	3	7.3
D. Pejčinović sub	13	0	0	1	0	0	0	6.2
G. Prömel sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
L. Sauer sub	9	0	0	1	0	0	0	6.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

SC Paderborn 07WDLLW

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

VfB StuttgartLWWLL

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.8 scored / 2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 1

SC Paderborn 07 0 · 0 draws · VfB Stuttgart 1 · 3 goals/game

2023-01-31 SC Paderborn 07 1–2 VfB Stuttgart

League standing · 2026/27

SC Paderborn 07#12 pos10 pts9 pl-3 GD

VfB Stuttgart#8 pos12 pts9 pl0 GD

Goals per game

SC Paderborn 07 scored0.89

VfB Stuttgart scored1.67

SC Paderborn 07 conceded1.22

VfB Stuttgart conceded1.67

Shot Map and Expected Goals

SC Paderborn 07 2.11 xG from 23 shots, VfB Stuttgart 2.60 from 18. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

SC Paderborn 07 (attacking right)VfB Stuttgart (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
SC Paderborn 07	23	0	2.11
VfB Stuttgart	18	2	2.60

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, VfB Stuttgart led on xG, 1.36 to 0.62. At full time, VfB Stuttgart led on xG, 2.60 to 2.11. The widest gap was 1.28 xG to VfB Stuttgart, in the 29th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)

SC Paderborn 07 2.11 xGVfB Stuttgart 2.60 xGdots = goals · 41 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart?: TACTIX’s free model pick for SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart was Draw or Away (best price 1.20 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart?: In their last 1 meetings, SC Paderborn 07 won 0, VfB Stuttgart won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart?: Recent form — SC Paderborn 07 2W 1D 2L; VfB Stuttgart 2W 0D 3L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 24 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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