This Matchweek

DerbyCardiff

Derby v Cardiff result

Full-time · Derby 2–2 Cardiff

Championship · · Pride Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Derby · Cardiff · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Derby 2–2 Cardiff — this Championship match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.7% of 5142 landed (95% range 76.5–78.8%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Derby and Cardiff drew 2–2 at Pride Park in the Championship on Saturday 22 August. Derby have scored in 12 consecutive matches in all competitions. Cardiff have scored in 10 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Cardiff led 2–1 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Cardiff: Cian Ashford (19’, assisted by Ronan Kpakio) and Yousef Salech (39’, assisted by Rubin Colwill); Derby: Carlton Morris (26’, assisted by Bobby Clark) and Bobby Clark (49’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Bobby Clark’s goal on 49 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Cardiff out-shot Derby 16 to 15 and created the better chances, 1.98 xG to 1.62 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Derby: Corey Blackett-Taylor (9’), Oscar Fraulo (55’), Lewis Travis (60’), Max Johnston (80’) and Dion Sanderson (84’); Cardiff: Alexander Robertson (53’).

What it changes

Derby move up from 22nd to 18th (two league matches played). Derby have scored 11 goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Derby have conceded 29 goals, the second-most of the 24 clubs.

Cardiff move up from 13th to 11th (two league matches played). Cardiff have scored 22 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Cardiff have conceded 23 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Derby are winless in their last four matches in all competitions. Cardiff are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Bobby Clark (Derby) 10.5, Carlton Morris (Derby) 6.2 and Ronan Kpakio (Cardiff) 5.8 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Derby or Cardiff (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.7% of the time in the last 90 days (3993 of 5142).

Next up

Derby next host Bolton on 6 November 2026.

Cardiff next host Burnley on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Derby: Derby v Bolton, Friday 6 November — the preview. Next for Cardiff: Cardiff v Burnley, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Derby 2–2 Cardiff · Championship
  • Venue: Pride Park · Derby
  • Referee: Rueben Ricardo, England
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Derby 1 · draws 1 · Cardiff 4 · 2 goals/game
  • Recent form: Derby 1W 0D 4L · Cardiff 3W 1D 1L

Derby 2–2 Cardiff (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 5 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 2.5
Goals
against 1.5 / 1.38 · 5 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.63 / 7
Corners
against 5 / 4.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.25 / 5.75
Shots on target
against 4.88 / 5.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.75 / 1.75
Cards
against 1.38 / 1.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
19
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 17 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameDerby for / againstLineCardiff for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8
2.5our book
2.5 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
4.63 for · 5 against n 8
9.5standard
7 for · 4.75 against n 8
Shots
13.38 for · 14.13 against n 8
19.5standard
17 for · 12.25 against n 8
Shots on target
4.25 for · 4.88 against n 8
8.5standard
5.75 for · 5.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
14 for · 10.38 against n 8
21.5standard
10 for · 9.75 against n 8
Cards shown
2.75 for · 1.38 against n 8
3.5standard
1.75 for · 1.5 against n 8

Referee: Rueben Ricardo, England.

Derby

Derby Goalkeeper

Derby — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Widell Zetterström293185 min41.9 /9041.9 /9000 /90
Derby — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 17 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Widell Zetterström n 890.6
3.88/4

Derby Defensive

Derby — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
S. Langås293185 min41.9 /9031.5 /9010.5 /90115.4 /9031.5 /9010.5 /90
J. Ward290179 min10.5 /9010.5 /9000 /9063 /9010.5 /9000 /90
C. Taylor277153 min42.4 /9010.6 /9021.2 /9074.1 /9000 /9000 /90
D. Sanderson270140 min00 /9000 /9010.6 /90127.7 /9042.6 /9000 /90
C. Forsyth258115 min10.8 /9000 /9000 /90107.8 /9010.8 /9000 /90
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Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 17 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
C. Morris n 890.5
2.46/6
1.77/5
Y. Salech
B. Clark n 876.6
2.18/4
16/1
—
S. Langås n 873.4
1.57/3
0.52/1
Joel Bagan
J. Widell Zetterström n 890.6
00/0
0.22/0
—
L. Travis n 886.9
0.95/2
2.17/6
—
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Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 17 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
S. Langås n 873.4
2.17/6
B. Clark n 876.6
1.65/4
C. Morris n 890.5
0.75/1
L. Travis n 886.9
3.48/7
J. Ward n 889.9
0.85/1
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Derby Attacking

Derby — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
C. Morris293185 min00 /9010.5 /9031.5 /9021 /9021 /9000 /90
S. Szmodics267134 min21.3 /9000 /9053.4 /9042.7 /9000 /9000 /90
C. Blackett-Taylor24079 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9022.3 /90
L. Salvesen21530 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9013 /9000 /90
B. Clark293185 min00 /9000 /9021 /9000 /9052.4 /9031.5 /90
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Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 17 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
C. Morris n 890.5
1.57/4
16/2
B. Clark n 876.6
0.74/1
0.11/0
S. Langås n 873.4
0.63/1
0.32/0
J. Widell Zetterström n 890.6
0.11/0
00/0
J. Ward n 889.9
0.64/1
0.53/1
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Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 17 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
C. Morris n 890.5
0.22/0
0.43/0
S. Langås n 873.4
0.21/0
00/0
B. Clark n 876.6
00/0
0.11/0
J. Widell Zetterström n 890.6
00/0
00/0
J. Ward n 889.9
00/0
0.11/0
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Cardiff

Cardiff Goalkeeper

Cardiff — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
N. Trott290180 min73.5 /9031.5 /9000 /90
Cardiff — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 17 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
N. Trott n 890
35/3

Cardiff Defensive

Cardiff — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
G. Osho290180 min10.5 /9000 /9031.5 /9031.5 /9021 /9000 /90
Joel Bagan290180 min52.5 /9000 /9031.5 /9073.5 /9021 /9000 /90
P. Ng290180 min31.5 /9000 /9010.5 /90126 /9021 /9000 /90
R. Kpakio19090 min00 /9022 /9000 /9088 /9011 /9000 /90
C. Scanlon18080 min11.1 /9033.4 /9000 /9044.5 /9011.1 /9000 /90
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Cardiff — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 17 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Y. Salech n 860.8
1.55/2
0.42/0
C. Morris
P. Ng n 890
1.37/2
1.16/2
—
Joel Bagan n 878.1
0.94/2
0.32/0
S. Langås
G. Osho n 871.4
0.84/1
0.64/0
—
N. Trott n 890
00/0
0.32/0
—
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Cardiff — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 17 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Joel Bagan n 878.1
2.38/6
P. Ng n 890
1.98/4
G. Osho n 871.4
1.46/2
Y. Salech n 860.8
0.74/0
A. Robertson n 863
1.86/2
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Cardiff Attacking

Cardiff — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Y. Salech290180 min21 /9010.5 /9031.5 /9031.5 /9021 /9000 /90
A. Robertson285170 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9010.5 /9021.1 /90
Cian Ashford285170 min00 /9010.5 /9042.1 /9010.5 /9031.6 /9052.6 /90
O. Tanner267134 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9021.3 /9021.3 /90
J. Moylan254108 min10.8 /9000 /9043.3 /9021.7 /9000 /9010.8 /90
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Cardiff — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 17 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Y. Salech n 860.8
27/2
1.35/1
P. Ng n 890
0.95/2
0.43/0
G. Osho n 871.4
0.53/0
00/0
N. Trott n 890
00/0
00/0
Joel Bagan n 878.1
00/0
00/0
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Cardiff — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 17 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Y. Salech n 860.8
0.73/1
0.21/0
P. Ng n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Joel Bagan n 878.1
00/0
0.11/0
N. Trott n 890
00/0
00/0
G. Osho n 871.4
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
DerbyCardiff
36%Possession64%
1.62Expected goals (xG)1.98
15Shots16
7Shots on target7
7Shots off target6
1Blocked shots3
12Shots inside the box10
7Corners7
5Offsides0
12Fouls10
5Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
4Saves4
282Passes521
79%Pass accuracy85%

Derby Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Widell Zetterström9000000007.9
D. Sanderson90000003Y6.6
S. Langås9000000206.7
C. Taylor9000000007.5
L. Travis90001000Y6.5
A. Mowatt9000001307.3
B. Clark9011423107.3
M. Johnston88001002Y6.7
C. Morris8810211107.3
C. Blackett-Taylor65003211Y7.2
O. Fraulo64002110Y6.9
R. Hedges sub2600000106.9
R. Brewster sub2500000006.5
R. Nyambe sub800000006.6
L. Salvesen sub800110006.7

Cardiff Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
N. Trott9000000007.3
R. Kpakio9001102306.3
P. Ng9000000206.9
Joel Bagan9000002208.7
C. Scanlon9000001006.9
A. Robertson90001021Y6.9
Y. Salech9010330006.7
J. Moylan7100101206.3
O. Tanner7100221306.9
R. Colwill5901111307
Cian Ashford5910110007.2
C. Willock sub3100002006.9
D. Turnbull sub3100201206.9
J. Colwill sub1900000106.7
I. Davies sub1900100106.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Derby v Cardiff — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
DerbyLWLLL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1.4 scored / 2 conceded per game
CardiffWWLWD
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.8 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Derby 1 · 1 draw · Cardiff 4 · 2 goals/game
  • 2025-01-25 Cardiff 2–1 Derby
  • 2024-09-14 Derby 1–0 Cardiff
  • 2022-05-07 Derby 0–1 Cardiff
  • 2022-03-01 Cardiff 1–0 Derby
  • 2021-03-02 Cardiff 4–0 Derby
  • 2020-10-28 Derby 1–1 Cardiff
League standing · 2026/27
Derby#23 pos7 pts14 pl-18 GD
Cardiff#18 pos15 pts14 pl-1 GD
Goals per game
Derby scored0.79
Cardiff scored1.57
Derby conceded2.07
Cardiff conceded1.64

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Derby v Cardiff?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Derby v Cardiff was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cardiff?
In their last 6 meetings, Derby won 1, Cardiff won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Derby and Cardiff?
Recent form — Derby 1W 0D 4L; Cardiff 3W 1D 1L.

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