This Matchweek

LincolnBirmingham

Lincoln v Birmingham result

Full-time · Lincoln 1–3 Birmingham

Championship · · LNER Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Lincoln · Birmingham

The model’s pre-match pick

Lincoln 1–3 Birmingham — Birmingham won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.95 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.2% of 549 landed (95% range 63.2–71%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Birmingham won 3–1 at LNER Stadium in the Championship on Saturday 31 October.

Birmingham have conceded 13 goals, the fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games).

The goals

Birmingham led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Birmingham: A. Priske (16’; 60’, assisted by Christoph Klarer) and Alexander Cochrane (73’, assisted by Ryan Allsop); Lincoln: Thomas Bayliss (63’, assisted by Mikkel Ladefoged).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with A. Priske’s goal on 16 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Lincoln 1.63, Birmingham 2.09, from 12 shots to 17 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Lewis Smith showed five yellow cards — against 4.2 yellows a game across the last 5 matches refereed (all competitions).

What it changes

Lincoln have scored 14 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Lincoln have conceded 24 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Birmingham have scored 26 goals, the fifth-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, A. Priske (Birmingham) 8.9, Christoph Klarer (Birmingham) 7.5 and Ryan Allsop (Birmingham) 6.7 led the match.

Head-to-head

Birmingham are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Lincoln, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Lincoln next travel to QPR on 7 November 2026.

Birmingham next host Swansea on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Lincoln: QPR v Lincoln, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Birmingham: Birmingham v Swansea, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Lincoln 1–3 Birmingham · Championship
  • Venue: LNER Stadium · Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Referee: Lewis Smith
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 3): Lincoln 0 · draws 0 · Birmingham 3 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Lincoln 1W 1D 3L · Birmingham 3W 1D 1L

Lincoln 1–3 Birmingham (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 5 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 1.88
Goals
against 2.25 / 1 · 5 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
2.25 / 5.25
Corners
against 8.75 / 5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3 / 5.38
Shots on target
against 5.75 / 3.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.75 / 2.25
Cards
against 2.38 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 24 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 24 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLincoln for / againstLineBirmingham for / against
Goals scored
1.13 for · 2.25 against n 8
2.5our book
1.88 for · 1 against n 8
Corners won
2.25 for · 8.75 against n 8
9.5standard
5.25 for · 5 against n 8
Shots
10 for · 17.88 against n 8
19.5standard
14.38 for · 13.25 against n 8
Shots on target
3 for · 5.75 against n 8
8.5standard
5.38 for · 3.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.5 for · 11.75 against n 8
21.5standard
12.75 for · 10.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2.75 for · 2.38 against n 8
3.5standard
2.25 for · 2 against n 8

Referee: Lewis Smith.

Lincoln

Lincoln Goalkeeper

Lincoln — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
G. Wickens13901175 min433.3 /90131 /9010.1 /90
J. Gauci290180 min63 /9010.5 /9000 /90
Lincoln — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
G. Wickens n 890
2.98/3

Lincoln Defensive

Lincoln — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
D. Elerewe14851186 min141.1 /90221.7 /9080.6 /90634.8 /90131 /9020.2 /90
R. Towler1177842 min91 /90151.6 /90111.2 /90353.7 /9050.5 /9020.2 /90
S. Bradley975675 min40.5 /9040.5 /9060.8 /90354.7 /9010.1 /9000 /90
Andrei Coubiș970634 min91.3 /90121.7 /9000 /90284 /9071 /9010.1 /90
C. Elder587433 min122.5 /9030.6 /9010.2 /90214.4 /9040.8 /9010.2 /90
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Lincoln — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
D. Elerewe n 880.1
0.84/2
0.83/2
A. Cochrane
G. Wickens n 890
00/0
00/0
—
F. Draper n 867.3
3.77/4
2.26/4
—
R. Hackett n 866.9
0.32/0
0.32/0
J. Stansfield
R. Street n 859.5
1.35/2
1.75/3
—
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Lincoln — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
D. Elerewe n 880.1
15/2
F. Draper n 867.3
0.84/1
R. Hackett n 866.9
1.95/4
R. Street n 859.5
1.55/1
A. Reach n 881.4
1.87/4
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Lincoln Attacking

Lincoln — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
F. Draper1364835 min20.2 /9010.1 /90161.7 /9070.8 /90111.2 /9030.3 /90
R. Street1354706 min20.3 /9000 /90101.3 /9030.4 /9070.9 /9010.1 /90
B. House1274891 min30.3 /9020.2 /90161.6 /9080.8 /9040.4 /9050.5 /90
C. Ogbene646274 min00 /9000 /9041.3 /9020.7 /9010.3 /9041.3 /90
M. Ladefoged544219 min31.2 /9000 /90104.1 /9041.6 /9052.1 /9000 /90
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Lincoln — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
D. Elerewe n 880.1
0.75/0
0.11/0
G. Wickens n 890
0.11/0
00/0
F. Draper n 867.3
27/3
0.84/1
R. Hackett n 866.9
1.54/2
0.72/1
R. Street n 859.5
1.14/1
0.42/0
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Lincoln — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Elerewe n 880.1
00/0
00/0
G. Wickens n 890
00/0
00/0
F. Draper n 867.3
0.32/0
00/0
R. Hackett n 866.9
0.21/0
0.21/0
R. Street n 859.5
0.21/0
00/0
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Birmingham

Birmingham Goalkeeper

Birmingham — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Beadle13901176 min332.5 /90120.9 /9010.1 /90
R. Allsop19090 min22 /9066 /9000 /90
Birmingham — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Birmingham before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Beadle n 890
2.56/4
R. Allsop n 890
2.46/3

Birmingham Defensive

Birmingham — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
C. Klarer14901266 min231.6 /90231.6 /90110.8 /901067.5 /90221.6 /9030.2 /90
P. Neumann14851191 min201.5 /90292.2 /90120.9 /90836.3 /90131 /9030.2 /90
B. Osayi-Samuel14841180 min282.1 /9070.5 /9020.2 /90715.4 /90141.1 /9050.4 /90
A. Cochrane14781092 min191.6 /9060.5 /9060.5 /90453.7 /90121 /9030.2 /90
E. Laird429114 min43.2 /9043.2 /9000 /90107.9 /9043.2 /9000 /90
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Birmingham — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Birmingham before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
C. Klarer n 890
2.18/5
0.32/0
—
P. Neumann n 890
0.94/2
17/1
—
B. Osayi-Samuel n 885
1.26/3
1.55/4
—
J. Stansfield n 886.5
1.75/3
0.11/0
R. Hackett
A. Cochrane n 882.3
1.25/3
1.46/3
D. Elerewe
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Birmingham — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Birmingham before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
C. Klarer n 890
1.86/4
P. Neumann n 890
1.87/6
B. Osayi-Samuel n 885
2.16/4
J. Stansfield n 886.5
1.35/2
A. Cochrane n 882.3
1.16/1
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Birmingham Attacking

Birmingham — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Priske1276916 min50.5 /9010.1 /90202 /90101 /9020.2 /9010.1 /90
D. Gray1030303 min41.2 /9000 /9082.4 /9061.8 /9041.2 /9051.5 /90
L. Vázquez547237 min00 /9000 /9031.1 /9010.4 /9020.8 /9000 /90
M. Ducksch32266 min00 /9000 /9022.7 /9000 /9022.7 /9000 /90
J. Stansfield14791112 min10.1 /9010.1 /90181.5 /90121 /90100.8 /9070.6 /90
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Birmingham — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Birmingham before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
C. Klarer n 890
0.52/1
0.11/0
P. Neumann n 890
0.42/1
0.11/0
B. Osayi-Samuel n 885
0.31/1
00/0
J. Stansfield n 886.5
1.46/4
1.26/3
A. Cochrane n 882.3
0.32/0
0.11/0
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Birmingham — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Birmingham before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
C. Klarer n 890
00/0
00/0
P. Neumann n 890
00/0
00/0
B. Osayi-Samuel n 885
00/0
00/0
J. Stansfield n 886.5
0.11/0
0.11/0
A. Cochrane n 882.3
00/0
0.11/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LincolnBirmingham
54%Possession46%
1.63Expected goals (xG)2.09
12Shots17
6Shots on target7
5Shots off target6
1Blocked shots4
11Shots inside the box8
3Corners3
4Offsides2
14Fouls9
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
2Saves5
401Passes335

Lincoln Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
G. Wickens9000000005.9
Andrei Coubiș9000101105.3
D. Elerewe9000110105.8
S. Bradley9000000106.2
A. Reach9000002006
Y. Konak90000002Y5.8
M. Ladefoged84012020Y6.8
R. Hackett7400001305.7
B. House7400210005.9
Ivan Varfolomeev5900002105.6
D. Jefferies59003203Y6
T. Bayliss3110110006.7
F. Draper3100100006.2
R. Street1600110006.4
C. Ogbene1600000006.6
I. Olaofe600001006.4

Birmingham Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
P. Neumann9000000006.7
C. Klarer9001001106.5
A. Cochrane9010210206.7
T. Iwata9000202006.1
J. Solis9000100106.2
L. Millar90001020Y6.8
J. Stansfield8800311306.2
E. Laird75001002Y6
P. Roberts7500103106.5
A. Priske6620440008.8
R. Allsop4501001006.3
J. Beadle4500000207.5
M. Bird2400113006.8
D. Gray1500100006.3
B. Osayi-Samuel1500000006.4
M. Ducksch200000006.4

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Lincoln v Birmingham — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LincolnLLLDW
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1.4 scored / 2.8 conceded per game
BirminghamDWWWL
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 3
Lincoln 0 · 0 draws · Birmingham 3 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2025-03-08 Birmingham 1–0 Lincoln
  • 2025-01-11 Birmingham 2–1 Lincoln
  • 2024-10-19 Lincoln 1–3 Birmingham
League standing · 2026/27
Lincoln#19 pos15 pts14 pl-10 GD
Birmingham#3 pos26 pts14 pl+13 GD
Goals per game
Lincoln scored1
Birmingham scored1.86
Lincoln conceded1.71
Birmingham conceded0.93

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Lincoln v Birmingham?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Lincoln v Birmingham was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.95 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Birmingham?
In their last 3 meetings, Lincoln won 0, Birmingham won 3 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Lincoln and Birmingham?
Recent form — Lincoln 1W 1D 3L; Birmingham 3W 1D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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