SwanseaMiddlesbrough

Swansea v Middlesbrough result

Full-time · Swansea 2–2 Middlesbrough

Championship ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Swansea · Middlesbrough · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Swansea 2–2 Middlesbrough — this Championship match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.3% of 515 landed (95% range 64.2–72.2%); it had given them 75.8% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Swansea and Middlesbrough drew 2–2 in the Championship on Monday 6 April. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Middlesbrough out-shot Swansea 29 to 12 and created the better chances, 3.13 xG to 2.16 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

Swansea led 2–1 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Middlesbrough: A. Bangura (12’, assisted by Tommy Conway) and Tommy Conway (75’ pen); Swansea: Žan Vipotnik (20’ pen, 45’ pen).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Tommy Conway’s goal on 75 minutes.

Discipline

M. Donohue showed six yellow cards — against 4.9 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Swansea: Gonçalo Franco (51’), Eom Ji-Sung (65’) and Malick Yalcouyé (90+5’); Middlesbrough: Riley McGree (45+5’), Alan Browne (62’) and Tommy Conway (90’).

What it changes

Swansea move down from 12th to 15th (41 league matches played). Swansea have scored 57 goals, the 11th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 46 games). Swansea have conceded 59 goals, the 12th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Middlesbrough stay third after this result (41 league matches played). Middlesbrough have scored 72 goals, the fourth-most of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 46 games). Middlesbrough have conceded 47 goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Swansea are winless in their last four matches in all competitions. Middlesbrough are winless in their last five matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Žan Vipotnik (Swansea) 10.1, Aidan Morris (Middlesbrough) 9.2 and Tommy Conway (Middlesbrough) 9.2 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.3% of the time in the last 90 days (352 of 515).

Next up

Swansea next travel to Birmingham on 7 November 2026.

Middlesbrough next travel to Watford on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Swansea: Birmingham v Swansea, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Middlesbrough: Watford v Middlesbrough, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Swansea 2–2 Middlesbrough · Championship
  • Referee: M. Donohue
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Swansea 1 · draws 0 · Middlesbrough 5 · 2 goals/game
  • Recent form: Swansea 2W 1D 2L · Middlesbrough 1W 2D 2L

Swansea 2–2 Middlesbrough (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 1.25
Goals
against 1.63 / 0.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.5 / 9.38
Corners
against 5.5 / 4.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.25 / 5.5
Shots on target
against 3.75 / 3.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 1.5
Cards
against 2.13 / 1.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4.91 yellows
Referee · M. Donohue
22.27 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 11 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 3 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 3 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameSwansea for / againstLineMiddlesbrough for / against
Goals scored
1.13 for · 1.63 against n 8
2.5standard
1.25 for · 0.75 against n 8
Corners won
3.5 for · 5.5 against n 8
9.5standard
9.38 for · 4.25 against n 8
Shots
11.25 for · 11.5 against n 8
19.5standard
20.5 for · 8.63 against n 8
Shots on target
3.25 for · 3.75 against n 8
8.5standard
5.5 for · 3.38 against n 8
Fouls committed
10 for · 13 against n 8
21.5standard
8.25 for · 10.13 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
1.5 for · 1.5 against n 8

Referee: M. Donohue — 4.91 yellow cards a game, 0.18 red cards, 22.27 fouls over 11 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Swansea

Swansea Goalkeeper

Swansea — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
L. Vigouroux40903600 min1213 /90521.3 /9000 /90
Swansea — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swansea before kick-off, to 3 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
L. Vigouroux n 890
2.15/3

Swansea Defensive

Swansea — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
C. Burgess43903870 min390.9 /90581.3 /90461.1 /902285.3 /90130.3 /9080.2 /90
J. Tymon42873636 min491.2 /90481.2 /9040.1 /901142.8 /90190.5 /9090.2 /90
E. Galbraith42803378 min651.7 /90471.3 /9070.2 /901854.9 /90320.9 /9070.2 /90
B. Cabango39903495 min681.8 /90461.2 /90250.6 /902315.9 /90240.6 /9080.2 /90
J. Key27772090 min361.6 /90200.9 /9070.3 /90813.5 /90231 /9040.2 /90
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Swansea — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swansea before kick-off, to 3 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
C. Burgess n 890
0.11/0
0.64/1
L. Ayling
Ronald n 860
1.33/2
2.15/4
—
J. Tymon n 887.3
0.84/2
0.42/1
L. Ayling
E. Galbraith n 880.8
15/2
16/1
—
Gonçalo Franco n 870.5
1.46/2
2.77/6
—
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Swansea — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swansea before kick-off, to 3 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
C. Burgess n 890
0.83/2
Ronald n 860
2.17/3
J. Tymon n 887.3
1.86/5
E. Galbraith n 880.8
1.36/3
Gonçalo Franco n 870.5
4.37/7
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Swansea Attacking

Swansea — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Z. Vipotnik39692684 min180.6 /9020.1 /90551.8 /90291 /90250.8 /9050.2 /90
L. Cullen28501407 min40.3 /9000 /90231.5 /90120.8 /90140.9 /9020.1 /90
Z. Inoussa26461197 min00 /9020.2 /90120.9 /9060.5 /90171.3 /90302.3 /90
A. Idah1548727 min30.4 /9020.2 /90101.2 /9060.7 /90131.6 /9030.4 /90
Gustavo Gomes1044439 min00 /9010.2 /9030.6 /9020.4 /9030.6 /90112.3 /90
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Swansea — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swansea before kick-off, to 3 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
C. Burgess n 890
0.32/0
00/0
Ronald n 860
0.21/0
00/0
J. Tymon n 887.3
0.63/1
0.11/0
E. Galbraith n 880.8
14/3
0.32/0
Gonçalo Franco n 870.5
0.64/0
0.32/0
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Swansea — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swansea before kick-off, to 3 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
C. Burgess n 890
00/0
00/0
Ronald n 860
00/0
0.21/0
J. Tymon n 887.3
00/0
0.32/0
E. Galbraith n 880.8
0.11/0
00/0
Gonçalo Franco n 870.5
00/0
00/0
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Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough Goalkeeper

Middlesbrough — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
S. Brynn41903696 min962.3 /90421 /9010 /90
Middlesbrough — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 3 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
S. Brynn n 890.8
2.75/4

Middlesbrough Defensive

Middlesbrough — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Targett38823108 min481.4 /90411.2 /9070.2 /901053 /90230.7 /9040.1 /90
L. Ayling37853156 min712 /90371.1 /90320.9 /901955.6 /90190.5 /9080.2 /90
C. Brittain36883170 min561.6 /90421.2 /9060.2 /901584.5 /90320.9 /9050.1 /90
A. Jones23861976 min351.6 /90221 /90200.9 /90853.9 /90190.9 /9030.1 /90
D. Fry19751418 min181.1 /90130.8 /90261.7 /901056.7 /9080.5 /9000 /90
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Middlesbrough — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 3 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
T. Conway n 880.5
0.85/1
1.85/3
—
S. Brynn n 890.8
0.11/0
0.22/0
—
H. Hackney n 886.8
1.68/3
1.46/4
—
M. Targett n 887.3
0.84/2
0.63/2
—
L. Ayling n 887.1
0.32/0
0.94/2
J. Tymon
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Middlesbrough — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 3 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Conway n 880.5
0.84/2
H. Hackney n 886.8
1.96/5
M. Targett n 887.3
0.94/2
L. Ayling n 887.1
1.47/4
C. Brittain n 889.9
1.68/3
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Middlesbrough Attacking

Middlesbrough — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
T. Conway42783264 min80.2 /9040.1 /90411.1 /90260.7 /90531.5 /90290.8 /90
D. Strelec25561389 min50.3 /9000 /90271.7 /90140.9 /90140.9 /90110.7 /90
D. Burgzorg21551156 min20.2 /9020.2 /90181.4 /9090.7 /90251.9 /90100.8 /90
K. Sène1932601 min20.3 /9000 /9071 /9020.3 /9030.4 /9040.6 /90
S. Hansen1035351 min00 /9000 /9061.5 /9020.5 /9041 /9061.5 /90
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Middlesbrough — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 3 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
T. Conway n 880.5
15/2
0.63/1
S. Brynn n 890.8
00/0
00/0
H. Hackney n 886.8
2.18/6
0.84/1
M. Targett n 887.3
1.26/3
0.64/1
L. Ayling n 887.1
0.95/2
0.32/0
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Middlesbrough — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 3 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
T. Conway n 880.5
0.11/0
0.32/0
S. Brynn n 890.8
00/0
00/0
H. Hackney n 886.8
0.11/0
0.32/0
M. Targett n 887.3
0.31/1
00/0
L. Ayling n 887.1
00/0
0.11/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
SwanseaMiddlesbrough
35%Possession65%
2.16Expected goals (xG)3.13
12Shots29
3Shots on target6
5Shots off target7
4Blocked shots16
10Shots inside the box19
2Corners10
14Fouls11
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
4Saves1
295Passes561
76%Pass accuracy87%

Swansea Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
L. Vigouroux9000000007.9
B. Cabango9000100407.9
C. Burgess9000000107
J. Tymon9000002006.3
L. Cullen9000110207.5
Eom Ji-Sung90000012Y6.6
J. Fulton8100000006.3
Sam Parker7200000406.9
Gonçalo Franco56000002Y6.5
M. Widell5600100006.2
Z. Vipotnik5620420007.5
Ronald sub3400101207.2
A. Idah sub3400000006.5
M. Stamenić sub3400000006.5
J. Ward sub1800000006.2
M. Yalcouyé sub9000010Y6.6

Middlesbrough Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
S. Brynn9000000006
C. Brittain9000001307.2
L. Ayling9000203107.7
A. Malanda9000000106.9
A. Browne90000021Y6.5
A. Morris9000114407.9
T. Conway90112131Y7.2
R. McGree66000012Y6.6
J. Sarmiento6600102206.7
D. Strelec6600110006.7
A. Bangura3410111106.9
Finley Munroe sub4700212106.6
D. Fry sub2400000007.2
S. Hansen sub2400100106.7
K. Sène sub2400100006.2
A. Gilbert sub900111006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Swansea v Middlesbrough — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
SwanseaWWLLD
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
MiddlesbroughWLDDL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.2 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Swansea 1 · 0 draws · Middlesbrough 5 · 2 goals/game
  • 2025-08-09 Middlesbrough 1–0 Swansea
  • 2025-03-08 Swansea 1–0 Middlesbrough
  • 2024-08-10 Middlesbrough 1–0 Swansea
  • 2024-04-06 Middlesbrough 2–0 Swansea
  • 2023-12-16 Swansea 1–2 Middlesbrough
  • 2023-03-11 Swansea 1–3 Middlesbrough
League standing · 2025/26
Swansea#11 pos64 pts46 pl-2 GD
Middlesbrough#5 pos80 pts46 pl+25 GD
Goals per game
Swansea scored1.24
Middlesbrough scored1.57
Swansea conceded1.28
Middlesbrough conceded1.02

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Swansea v Middlesbrough?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Swansea v Middlesbrough was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Middlesbrough?
In their last 6 meetings, Swansea won 1, Middlesbrough won 5 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Swansea and Middlesbrough?
Recent form — Swansea 2W 1D 2L; Middlesbrough 1W 2D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

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