This Matchweek

MarseilleParis Saint Germain

Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain result

Full-time · Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint-Germain

Ligue 1 · · Stade Orange Vélodrome

Updated · refreshed continuously

The model’s pre-match pick

Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint-Germain — Paris Saint-Germain won this Ligue 1 match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.18 at William Hill
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.9% of 5118 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,974 of 2,640 times (74.8%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Paris Saint-Germain: 4.75 to 1.87 in expected goals, from 31 shots to 12, ahead on xG from the seventh minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Paris Saint-Germain won 2–1 at Stade Orange Vélodrome in Ligue 1 on Sunday 20 September. Paris Saint-Germain have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Paris Saint-Germain: Ferran Torres (66’, assisted by Désiré Doué) and Marquinhos (74’); Marseille: Adilson Gomes (72’, assisted by Amine Gouiri). Timothy Weah (77’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Marquinhos’s goal on 74 minutes.

Discipline

Francois Letexier showed three yellow cards and one red — against 3.4 yellows a game across the last 5 matches refereed (all competitions).

What it changes

Marseille move down from 11th to 17th (five league matches played). Marseille have scored seven goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 5 games). Marseille have conceded eight goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Paris Saint-Germain move up from seventh to sixth (five league matches played). Paris Saint-Germain have scored eight goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 5 games). Paris Saint-Germain have conceded seven goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Paris Saint-Germain recorded the only away win among the nine finished matches of round 5. Marseille have lost their last five matches in all competitions. Paris Saint-Germain have won their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Désiré Doué (Paris Saint-Germain) 8.3, Jeffrey de Lange (Marseille) 6.3 and Marquinhos (Paris Saint-Germain) 6.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Marseille or Paris Saint-Germain (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.9% of the time in the last 90 days (3985 of 5118).

Next up

Marseille next travel to Lens on 8 November 2026.

Paris Saint-Germain next travel to Nice on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Marseille: Lens v Marseille, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Paris Saint-Germain: Nice v Paris Saint-Germain, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 1
  • Venue: Stade Orange Vélodrome · Marseille
  • Referee: Francois Letexier
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Marseille 1 · draws 1 · Paris Saint-Germain 4 · 3.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Marseille 1W 0D 4L · Paris Saint-Germain 2W 2D 1L

Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint-Germain (Ligue 1): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 4 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 1.88
Goals
against 1.75 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4.38 / 5.14
Corners
against 5 / 1.29 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
5.63 / 7.43
Shots on target
against 5.25 / 3.43 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.75 / 1.43
Cards
against 2.25 / 1.71 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 17 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameMarseille for / againstLineParis Saint-Germain for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 1.75 against n 8
3.5our book
1.88 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
4.38 for · 5 against n 8
9.5standard
5.14 for · 1.29 against n 7
Shots
14.88 for · 15.75 against n 8
19.5standard
20.57 for · 10 against n 7
Shots on target
5.63 for · 5.25 against n 8
8.5standard
7.43 for · 3.43 against n 7
Fouls committed
11.88 for · 12.63 against n 8
21.5standard
8.29 for · 10 against n 7
Cards shown
1.75 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
1.43 for · 1.71 against n 7

Referee: Francois Letexier.

Marseille

Marseille Goalkeeper

Marseille — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. de Lange590450 min183.6 /9061.2 /9000 /90
Marseille — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. de Lange n 890
3.48/6

Marseille Defensive

Marseille — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
T. Weah590450 min122.4 /9030.6 /9030.6 /90244.8 /9081.6 /9010.2 /90
C. Egan-Riley587435 min81.7 /9081.7 /9030.6 /90255.2 /9010.2 /9000 /90
Emerson578391 min71.6 /9040.9 /9010.2 /90214.8 /9040.9 /9000 /90
N. Aguerd546231 min10.4 /9020.8 /9020.8 /90124.7 /9020.8 /9010.4 /90
D. Cornelius33399 min00 /9021.8 /9000 /9010.9 /9032.7 /9000 /90
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Marseille — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
P. Højbjerg n 889
1.56/4
1.36/4
Vitinha
T. Weah n 884.1
1.36/3
0.73/2
W. Pacho
J. de Lange n 890
00/0
00/0
—
A. Harit n 870.1
0.63/1
2.46/5
Vitinha
C. Egan-Riley n 877.4
0.63/1
0.94/1
W. Pacho
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Marseille — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Weah n 884.1
2.16/4
P. Højbjerg n 889
1.86/5
A. Harit n 870.1
1.86/5
C. Egan-Riley n 877.4
1.76/2
Emerson n 882.6
2.57/6
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Marseille Attacking

Marseille — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Gouiri576381 min40.9 /9000 /90112.6 /9061.4 /9030.7 /9061.4 /90
K. Abdallah537184 min21 /9000 /9083.9 /9042 /9031.5 /9052.4 /90
N. Maupay24284 min00 /9000 /9011.1 /9000 /9000 /9022.1 /90
T. Mmadi11818 min00 /9000 /9015 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
P. Højbjerg590450 min10.2 /9000 /9061.2 /9020.4 /9061.2 /9020.4 /90
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Marseille — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
T. Weah n 884.1
1.27/2
0.43/0
P. Højbjerg n 889
1.14/3
0.43/0
J. de Lange n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Harit n 870.1
1.15/2
0.64/0
C. Egan-Riley n 877.4
0.31/1
0.11/0
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Marseille — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
P. Højbjerg n 889
0.32/0
0.11/0
J. de Lange n 890
00/0
00/0
T. Weah n 884.1
00/0
00/0
A. Harit n 870.1
0.21/0
0.32/0
C. Egan-Riley n 877.4
0.11/0
00/0
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Paris Saint-Germain

Paris Saint-Germain Goalkeeper

Paris Saint-Germain — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Safonov791636 min142 /9081.1 /9000 /90
Paris Saint-Germain — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Paris Saint-Germain before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Safonov n 890.8
2.65/4

Paris Saint-Germain Defensive

Paris Saint-Germain — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
W. Pacho787610 min121.8 /9060.9 /9040.6 /90274 /9020.3 /9000 /90
A. Hakimi780559 min71.1 /9050.8 /9010.2 /90284.5 /9010.2 /9020.3 /90
Marquinhos591456 min30.6 /9020.4 /9010.2 /90132.6 /9040.8 /9010.2 /90
Nuno Mendes464255 min41.4 /9062.1 /9010.4 /90196.7 /9020.7 /9000 /90
L. Hernández441163 min31.7 /9010.6 /9000 /9042.2 /9010.6 /9010.6 /90
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Paris Saint-Germain — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Paris Saint-Germain before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Safonov n 890.8
00/0
0.11/0
—
Vitinha n 885.4
0.43/0
0.32/0
A. Harit
W. Pacho n 887.5
0.32/0
0.53/1
C. Egan-Riley
A. Hakimi n 881.1
0.62/1
15/2
—
M. Akliouche n 756.6
1.14/1
1.44/2
—
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Paris Saint-Germain — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Paris Saint-Germain before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Vitinha n 885.4
0.86/0
W. Pacho n 887.5
2.25/4
A. Hakimi n 881.1
1.25/3
M. Akliouche n 756.6
3.26/4
Fabián Ruiz n 857.5
25/3
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Paris Saint-Germain Attacking

Paris Saint-Germain — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
M. Akliouche757396 min00 /9010.2 /9071.6 /9010.2 /90112.5 /9030.7 /90
D. Doué667399 min10.2 /9010.2 /90122.7 /9071.6 /90122.7 /90173.8 /90
K. Kvaratskhelia664382 min10.2 /9010.2 /90153.5 /9071.6 /9071.6 /90112.6 /90
O. Dembélé646277 min20.6 /9041.3 /90227.1 /9082.6 /90134.2 /9092.9 /90
Ferran Torres559294 min61.8 /9000 /90123.7 /9061.8 /9051.5 /9000 /90
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Paris Saint-Germain — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Paris Saint-Germain before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Safonov n 890.8
00/0
00/0
Vitinha n 885.4
1.35/2
0.42/1
W. Pacho n 887.5
0.11/0
00/0
A. Hakimi n 881.1
1.26/3
0.32/0
M. Akliouche n 756.6
1.64/2
0.21/0
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Paris Saint-Germain — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Paris Saint-Germain before kick-off, to 17 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Safonov n 890.8
00/0
00/0
Vitinha n 885.4
0.11/0
0.11/0
W. Pacho n 887.5
00/0
00/0
A. Hakimi n 881.1
00/0
0.11/0
M. Akliouche n 756.6
00/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
MarseilleParis Saint-Germain
39%Possession61%
12Shots31
4Shots on target10
3Shots off target12
5Blocked shots9
7Shots inside the box22
3Corners7
1Offsides2
9Fouls3
2Yellow cards1
1Red cards0
8Saves3
402Passes632

Marseille Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. de Lange9000000007.2
C. Egan-Riley9000000106.6
N. Aguerd9000200006
P. Højbjerg9000330107.2
A. Gouiri9001004007.1
Emerson8400000106
H. Abdelli8400001006.5
N. Maupay8400202106.3
T. Weah77001002R5.2
A. Harit6300001106.5
A. Gomes60102111Y7.5
Igor Paixão3000000005.9
K. Abdallah27001000Y6.1
F. Moumbagna600001006.7
U. Garcia600100006.1
K. Bezahaf600000006.2

Paris Saint-Germain Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Safonov9000000006.7
W. Zaïre-Emery9000101206.9
Marquinhos9010221007.2
W. Pacho9000000106.7
Nuno Mendes90002270Y8
João Neves9000310506.9
Vitinha9000303207.2
D. Doué7901415107.7
O. Dembélé7900715006.4
Fabián Ruiz6500201107
K. Kvaratskhelia5900213107.4
Ferran Torres3110321008.1
M. Akliouche2500200006.1
Mika Godts1100000006.5
Beraldo1100000006.4

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
MarseilleWLLLL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1.4 scored / 2 conceded per game
Paris Saint-GermainDDLWW
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Marseille 1 · 1 draw · Paris Saint-Germain 4 · 3.17 goals/game
  • 2026-02-08 Paris Saint-Germain 5–0 Marseille
  • 2026-01-08 Paris Saint-Germain 2–2 Marseille
  • 2025-09-22 Marseille 1–0 Paris Saint-Germain
  • 2025-03-16 Paris Saint-Germain 3–1 Marseille
  • 2024-10-27 Marseille 0–3 Paris Saint-Germain
  • 2024-03-31 Marseille 0–2 Paris Saint-Germain
League standing · 2026/27
Marseille#6 pos15 pts9 pl+7 GD
Paris Saint-Germain#1 pos23 pts10 pl+12 GD
Goals per game
Marseille scored2.22
Paris Saint-Germain scored2.2
Marseille conceded1.44
Paris Saint-Germain conceded1

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Marseille 1.87 xG from 12 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 4.75 from 31. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

João Neves 55' · 0.54 xGNaif Aguerd 95' · 0.50 xGNeal Maupay 61' · 0.49 xGMaghnes Akliouche 89' · 0.43 xGMarquinhos 73' · 0.41 xGOusmane Dembélé 41' · 0.36 xGOusmane Dembélé 11' · 0.33 xGOusmane Dembélé 77' · 0.32 xGOusmane Dembélé 52' · 0.27 xGMaghnes Akliouche 85' · 0.16 xGKhvicha Kvaratskhelia 51' · 0.15 xGUlisses García 92' · 0.14 xGNeal Maupay 37' · 0.13 xGVitinha 47' · 0.11 xGFerrán Torres 69' · 0.11 xGNuno Mendes 9' · 0.09 xGJoão Neves 47' · 0.09 xGFerrán Torres 82' · 0.09 xGKhvicha Kvaratskhelia 48' · 0.09 xGWarren Zaïre-Emery 41' · 0.08 xGDésiré Doué 7' · 0.08 xGVitinha 54' · 0.07 xGJoão Neves 90' · 0.06 xGDésiré Doué 60' · 0.05 xGDésiré Doué 11' · 0.05 xGOusmane Dembélé 60' · 0.04 xGOusmane Dembélé 48' · 0.04 xGPierre-Emile Højbjerg 67' · 0.03 xGAngel Gomes 39' · 0.03 xGDésiré Doué 46' · 0.03 xGFabián 11' · 0.03 xGFabián 42' · 0.03 xGNuno Mendes 81' · 0.03 xGKeyliane Abdallah 66' · 0.03 xGOusmane Dembélé 42' · 0.02 xGNaif Aguerd 92' · 0.02 xGPierre-Emile Højbjerg 23' · 0.02 xGVitinha 34' · 0.02 xGPierre-Emile Højbjerg 75' · 0.01 xGTimothy Weah 49' · 0.01 xGAngel Gomes 71' · 0.46 xG · goalFerrán Torres 65' · 0.40 xG · goalMarquinhos 73' · 0.18 xG · goal
Marseille (attacking right)Paris Saint-Germain (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Marseille1211.87
Paris Saint-Germain3124.75

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Paris Saint-Germain led on xG, 1.09 to 0.18. At full time, Paris Saint-Germain led on xG, 4.75 to 1.87. The widest gap was 3.54 xG to Paris Saint-Germain, in the 90th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
4.82.400′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Paris Saint Germain 65 minGoal - Marseille 71 minGoal - Paris Saint Germain 73 min
Marseille 1.87 xGParis Saint-Germain 4.75 xGdots = goals · 43 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain was Home or Away (best price 1.18 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Paris Saint-Germain?
In their last 6 meetings, Marseille won 1, Paris Saint-Germain won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Marseille and Paris Saint-Germain?
Recent form — Marseille 1W 0D 4L; Paris Saint-Germain 2W 2D 1L.

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