MarseilleRennes

Marseille v Rennes result

Full-time · Marseille 3–1 Rennes

Ligue 1 · · Orange Vélodrome

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Marseille · Rennes · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Marseille 3–1 Rennes — Marseille won this Ligue 1 match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.2% of 549 landed (95% range 63.2–71%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 543 of 844 times (64.3%), against an average rating of 67.7%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Marseille: 4.09 to 2.21 in expected goals, from 27 shots to 27, ahead on xG from the 0th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Marseille beat Rennes 3–1 at Orange Vélodrome in Ligue 1 on Sunday 17 May. Rennes have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Marseille led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Marseille: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (2’, assisted by Mason Greenwood), Amine Gouiri (10’) and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (55’, assisted by Pierre-Emile Højbjerg); Rennes: Esteban Lepaul (84’, assisted by Arnaud Nordin).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Pierre-Emile Højbjerg’s goal on 2 minutes.

Discipline

R. Buquet showed four yellow cards — against 2.8 yellows a game across the last 12 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Marseille: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (49’), Amine Gouiri (76’) and Benjamin Pavard (90+5’); Rennes: Mahdi Camara (79’).

What it changes

Marseille stay fifth after this result (34 league matches played). Marseille have scored 63 goals, the fourth-most of the 21 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 34 games, ranked per game). Marseille have conceded 45 goals, the eighth-fewest of the 21 clubs.

Rennes move down from fifth to sixth (34 league matches played). Rennes have scored 59 goals, the sixth-most of the 21 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 34 games, ranked per game). Rennes have conceded 50 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 21 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (Marseille) 8.6, Mason Greenwood (Marseille) 8.3 and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Marseille) 6.5 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 67.2% of the time in the last 90 days (369 of 549).

Next up

Marseille next travel to Lens on 8 November 2026.

Rennes next host Lille on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Marseille: Lens v Marseille, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Rennes: Rennes v Lille, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Marseille 3–1 Rennes · Ligue 1
  • Venue: Orange Vélodrome · Marseille
  • Referee: R. Buquet
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Marseille 3 · draws 1 · Rennes 2 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Marseille 2W 1D 2L · Rennes 4W 0D 1L

Marseille 3–1 Rennes (Ligue 1): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 2
Goals
against 1.38 / 1.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
6.5 / 7.38
Corners
against 2.75 / 3.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.38 / 6.25
Shots on target
against 3.25 / 4 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.5 / 1.63
Cards
against 1.88 / 2.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
2.83 yellows
Referee · R. Buquet
21.42 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 12 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 10 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameMarseille for / againstLineRennes for / against
Goals scored
1 for · 1.38 against n 8
3.5our book
2 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
6.5 for · 2.75 against n 8
9.5standard
7.38 for · 3.63 against n 8
Shots
16.38 for · 9.38 against n 8
19.5standard
16.13 for · 11.38 against n 8
Shots on target
5.38 for · 3.25 against n 8
8.5standard
6.25 for · 4 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.25 for · 11.25 against n 8
21.5standard
12.88 for · 11.75 against n 8
Cards shown
2.5 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
1.63 for · 2.13 against n 8

Referee: R. Buquet — 2.83 yellow cards a game, 0.08 red cards, 21.42 fouls over 12 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Marseille

Marseille Goalkeeper

Marseille — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
G. Rulli36903240 min1083 /90451.3 /9010 /90
J. de Lange890720 min192.4 /9060.8 /9000 /90
Marseille — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
G. Rulli n 890
1.95/2
J. de Lange n 890
2.45/3

Marseille Defensive

Marseille — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
B. Pavard33802635 min381.3 /90371.3 /90160.5 /901174 /90341.2 /9070.2 /90
Emerson33802625 min592 /90391.3 /90100.3 /901244.3 /90240.8 /9050.2 /90
L. Balerdi31822556 min642.3 /90391.4 /90170.6 /901475.2 /90351.2 /9060.2 /90
F. Medina23761755 min251.3 /90231.2 /90110.6 /90583 /90281.4 /9080.4 /90
N. Aguerd21881849 min321.6 /90361.8 /90110.5 /90874.2 /90271.3 /9060.3 /90
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Marseille — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Greenwood n 868.6
14/1
2.17/2
M. Camara
P. Højbjerg n 888.1
1.47/3
1.47/4
—
Igor Paixão n 878.5
15/2
2.17/4
Mousa Tamari
T. Weah n 883.5
1.17/1
0.74/1
Q. Merlin
G. Rulli n 890
00/0
00/0
—
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Marseille — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Greenwood n 868.6
0.84/1
P. Højbjerg n 888.1
1.35/3
Igor Paixão n 878.5
1.45/4
T. Weah n 883.5
2.27/5
P. Aubameyang n 879.4
0.11/0
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Marseille Attacking

Marseille — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
P. Aubameyang36702535 min120.4 /9090.3 /90642.3 /90381.3 /90341.2 /90160.6 /90
A. Gouiri25611533 min100.6 /9050.3 /90362.1 /90221.3 /90342 /90181.1 /90
R. Vaz1038380 min40.9 /9020.5 /9071.7 /9051.2 /9061.4 /9010.2 /90
J. Rowe16363 min00 /9000 /9045.7 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
M. Greenwood42793305 min240.7 /90100.3 /901143.1 /90711.9 /90802.2 /90671.8 /90
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Marseille — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Greenwood n 868.6
3.48/6
1.87/3
P. Højbjerg n 888.1
1.36/4
0.43/0
Igor Paixão n 878.5
2.37/5
15/1
T. Weah n 883.5
0.86/0
0.32/0
G. Rulli n 890
0.11/0
00/0
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Marseille — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Greenwood n 868.6
0.32/0
0.31/1
P. Højbjerg n 888.1
0.11/0
00/0
Igor Paixão n 878.5
0.11/0
0.32/0
T. Weah n 883.5
00/0
00/0
G. Rulli n 890
00/0
00/0
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Rennes

Rennes Goalkeeper

Rennes — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
B. Samba34903060 min892.6 /90481.4 /9020.1 /90
M. Silistrie290180 min10.5 /9031.5 /9000 /90
Rennes — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rennes before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
B. Samba n 890
2.34/3

Rennes Defensive

Rennes — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Q. Merlin35772701 min642.1 /90361.2 /90120.4 /901284.3 /90240.8 /9030.1 /90
L. Brassier29812357 min311.2 /90401.5 /90230.9 /901013.9 /90291.1 /9020.1 /90
A. Rouault23831904 min301.4 /90211 /90190.9 /90944.4 /90281.3 /9050.2 /90
Jérémy Jacquet21881853 min301.5 /90201 /90170.8 /90894.3 /90231.1 /9060.3 /90
A. Seidu20691370 min362.4 /90201.3 /9020.1 /90956.2 /90191.2 /9020.1 /90
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Rennes — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rennes before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Q. Merlin n 890
1.35/5
15/2
T. Weah
B. Samba n 890
0.11/0
0.31/1
—
Esteban Lepaul n 889.3
0.53/1
0.62/2
—
M. Camara n 888
16/2
0.85/1
M. Greenwood
Mousa Tamari n 872.6
0.21/0
1.25/2
Igor Paixão
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Rennes — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rennes before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Q. Merlin n 890
36/5
Esteban Lepaul n 889.3
0.11/0
M. Camara n 888
1.98/4
Mousa Tamari n 872.6
1.15/2
V. Rongier n 890
2.68/6
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Rennes Attacking

Rennes — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Esteban Lepaul34772617 min190.7 /9050.2 /90662.3 /90381.3 /90200.7 /90100.3 /90
B. Embolo32621988 min110.5 /9030.1 /90371.7 /90200.9 /90180.8 /90140.6 /90
M. Meïté1440559 min20.3 /9020.3 /90152.4 /9071.1 /9071.1 /9061 /90
A. Nordin961550 min10.2 /9020.3 /90142.3 /9040.7 /9040.7 /9050.8 /90
N. Mukiele32265 min11.4 /9000 /9011.4 /9011.4 /9011.4 /9011.4 /90
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Rennes — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rennes before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Q. Merlin n 890
0.32/0
0.11/0
B. Samba n 890
00/0
00/0
Esteban Lepaul n 889.3
2.68/6
1.57/4
M. Camara n 888
1.26/2
0.54/0
Mousa Tamari n 872.6
2.27/3
1.13/2
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Rennes — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rennes before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Q. Merlin n 890
00/0
0.32/0
B. Samba n 890
00/0
00/0
Esteban Lepaul n 889.3
0.96/1
0.32/0
M. Camara n 888
00/0
00/0
Mousa Tamari n 872.6
0.53/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
MarseilleRennes
45%Possession55%
2.92Expected goals (xG)2.49
27Shots27
11Shots on target6
9Shots off target14
7Blocked shots7
19Shots inside the box20
4Corners11
2Offsides2
11Fouls10
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
4Saves8
399Passes463
82%Pass accuracy85%

Marseille Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
G. Rulli9000000007.2
L. Balerdi9000100207.7
F. Medina9000001307.3
Emerson9000105307.5
M. Greenwood9001314108.6
A. Gouiri90101121Y7.9
P. Aubameyang9010660007
T. Weah8800100107
T. Nnadi8200100106.6
P. Højbjerg82112151Y9.2
Igor Paixão7200422307.2
A. Vermeeren sub1800000106.5
B. Pavard sub9000000Y6.6
Q. Timber sub800000006.5
Nouhoum Kamissoko sub800000106.7

Rennes Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Silistrie9000000007.2
M. Nagida9000100206.2
A. Ait Boudlal9000200006.9
A. Rouault9000000006.3
Q. Merlin9000007106.3
V. Rongier9000003207.2
M. Camara90002126Y7.2
Esteban Lepaul9010411007.2
L. Blas7900214206.5
Mousa Tamari6700411206.6
S. Szymański4500001106.3
B. Embolo sub4500410006.2
A. Nordin sub2301112107.2
N. Mukiele sub1100000006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Marseille v Rennes — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
MarseilleWLDLW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
RennesWWWLW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Marseille 3 · 1 draw · Rennes 2 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2026-02-03 Marseille 3–0 Rennes
  • 2025-08-15 Rennes 1–0 Marseille
  • 2025-05-17 Marseille 4–2 Rennes
  • 2025-01-11 Rennes 1–2 Marseille
  • 2024-03-17 Rennes 2–0 Marseille
  • 2024-01-21 Rennes 1–1 Marseille
League standing · 2025/26
Marseille#5 pos59 pts34 pl+18 GD
Rennes#6 pos59 pts34 pl+9 GD
Goals per game
Marseille scored1.85
Rennes scored1.74
Marseille conceded1.32
Rennes conceded1.47

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Marseille 4.09 xG from 27 shots, Rennes 2.21 from 27. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Breel Embolo 46' · 0.42 xGPierre-Emerick Aubameyang 59' · 0.40 xGTochukwu Nnadi 59' · 0.39 xGPierre-Emerick Aubameyang 67' · 0.36 xGPierre-Emerick Aubameyang 45' · 0.33 xGPierre-Emerick Aubameyang 46' · 0.27 xGPierre-Emerick Aubameyang 45' · 0.26 xGLudovic Blas 76' · 0.18 xGTimothy Weah 45' · 0.14 xGPierre-Emerick Aubameyang 19' · 0.14 xGAmine Gouiri 50' · 0.13 xGPierre-Emile Højbjerg 64' · 0.13 xGIgor Paixão 0' · 0.12 xGBreel Embolo 86' · 0.11 xGIgor Paixão 26' · 0.10 xGLudovic Blas 63' · 0.10 xGIgor Paixão 67' · 0.09 xGBreel Embolo 78' · 0.08 xGMahdi Camara 37' · 0.08 xGMousa Al Tamari 44' · 0.08 xGMousa Al Tamari 36' · 0.08 xGAbdelhamid Aït Boudlal 23' · 0.08 xGEsteban Lepaul 63' · 0.08 xGArnaud Nordin 88' · 0.07 xGEmerson 9' · 0.07 xGMason Greenwood 42' · 0.07 xGBreel Embolo 92' · 0.07 xGEsteban Lepaul 12' · 0.06 xGLeonardo Balerdi 21' · 0.06 xGMason Greenwood 58' · 0.05 xGMousa Al Tamari 24' · 0.05 xGEsteban Lepaul 93' · 0.05 xGLudovic Blas 22' · 0.04 xGMason Greenwood 40' · 0.04 xGAbdelhamid Aït Boudlal 96' · 0.04 xGMahdi Camara 80' · 0.04 xGPierre-Emile Højbjerg 65' · 0.03 xGAmine Gouiri 66' · 0.03 xGIgor Paixão 8' · 0.03 xGMousa Al Tamari 32' · 0.03 xGPierre-Emerick Aubameyang 35' · 0.02 xGQuentin Merlin 85' · 0.02 xGMahamadou Nagida 86' · 0.02 xGIgor Paixão 45' · 0.02 xGMousa Al Tamari 49' · 0.02 xGBreel Embolo 91' · 0.02 xGTimothy Weah 70' · 0.02 xGNordan Mukiele 83' · 0.01 xGEsteban Lepaul 60' · 0.01 xGValentin Rongier 37' · 0.01 xGPierre-Emerick Aubameyang 54' · 0.59 xG · goalEsteban Lepaul 83' · 0.38 xG · goalAmine Gouiri 9' · 0.12 xG · goalPierre-Emile Højbjerg 1' · 0.09 xG · goal
Marseille (attacking right)Rennes (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Marseille2734.09
Rennes2712.21

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Marseille led on xG, 1.60 to 0.50. At full time, Marseille led on xG, 4.09 to 2.21. The widest gap was 2.97 xG to Marseille, in the 70th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
4.12.000′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Marseille 1 minGoal - Marseille 9 minGoal - Marseille 54 minGoal - Rennes 83 min
Marseille 4.09 xGRennes 2.21 xGdots = goals · 54 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Marseille v Rennes?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Marseille v Rennes was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Rennes?
In their last 6 meetings, Marseille won 3, Rennes won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Marseille and Rennes?
Recent form — Marseille 2W 1D 2L; Rennes 4W 0D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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