Marseille v Toulouse prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 01 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · Stade Orange Vélodrome

Updated 29 Oct 2026, 09:03 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Marseille · Toulouse · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Marseille v Toulouse, Ligue 1 on Sun, 01 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.57 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.1% of 586 landed (95% range 63.2–70.7%); it had given them 76.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 479 of 729 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.1%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Marseille host Toulouse in Ligue 1 on Sunday 1 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

12 of Toulouse’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%).

Toulouse are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions. Marseille are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Toulouse, every meeting checked.

Form and the table

Eight of Marseille’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of Marseille’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Marseille have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.43 points per game, scoring 2.14 and conceding 1.57. Marseille have scored 18 goals, the most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Marseille have conceded 13 goals, the eighth-most of the 18 clubs.

Both teams scored in 10 of Toulouse’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). Away from home, Toulouse have two wins, three draws and three defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.13 points per game, scoring 1.88 and conceding 2.13. Toulouse have scored 12 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Toulouse have conceded 11 goals, the eighth-fewest of the 18 clubs.

Marseille (eighth) and Toulouse (11th) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Marseille the stronger side, 20 rating points above Toulouse (Marseille 1679, Toulouse 1659, after at least 253 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 7 March 2026, finished Toulouse 0–1 Marseille.

Team news

Predicted Marseille XI (4-4-2): J. de Lange, N. Aguerd, C. Egan-Riley, Emerson, T. Weah, H. Abdelli, A. Harit, T. Nnadi, P. Højbjerg, A. Gouiri, N. Maupay — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Amine Harit (4.0 per match over 10 appearances, two goals and one assist) and Igor Paixão (3.9 per match over 10 appearances, two goals) have been Marseille’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Marseille (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Amine Harit averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 764 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Igor Paixão averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 713 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Toulouse XI (4-2-3-1): G. Restes, M. McKenzie, C. Tape, R. Messali, R. Nicolaisen, C. Cásseres, T. Jørgensen, N. Sigur, A. Vossah, Y. Azizi, J. Russell-Rowe — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, C. Cásseres (7.6 per match over eight appearances, five assists) and Casper Tengstedt (5.0 per match over six appearances, five goals and one assist) have been Toulouse’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Toulouse (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), C. Cásseres averages 2.8 key passes per 90 over 1036 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Casper Tengstedt averages 4.2 shots per 90 over 406 minutes, with a shot in six of the last six appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sun, 01 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · Ligue 1 · Stade Orange Vélodrome
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Marseille 3 · draws 3 · Toulouse 0 · 3.67 goals/game
Recent form: Marseille 3W 0D 2L · Toulouse 2W 3D 0L

Marseille v Toulouse (Ligue 1): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 29 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 1.5

Goals

against 1.75 / 1.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.25

over 8 matches

4.5 / 4.13

Corners

against 3.38 / 4.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.13 / 4.38

Shots on target

against 5.75 / 3.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2 / 2.13

Cards

against 2.13 / 1.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Marseille for / against	Line	Toulouse for / against
Goals scored	1.63 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.25our book	1.5 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.5 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.13 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	12.63 for · 17.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.75 for · 13.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.13 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.38 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.5 for · 12.38 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	16 for · 13.13 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.13 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5

Marseille

Marseille Goalkeeper

Marseille — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. de Lange	11	90990 min	403.6 /90	60.5 /90	00 /90

Marseille — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. de Lange n 8	90	3.9 7/7

Marseille Defensive

Marseille — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
N. Aguerd	11	62686 min	50.7 /90	111.4 /90	50.7 /90	395.1 /90	70.9 /90	10.1 /90
C. Egan-Riley	10	82820 min	111.2 /90	131.4 /90	40.4 /90	384.2 /90	40.4 /90	00 /90
Emerson	10	81807 min	91 /90	121.3 /90	30.3 /90	293.2 /90	60.7 /90	00 /90
T. Weah	9	89797 min	252.8 /90	101.1 /90	50.6 /90	424.7 /90	141.6 /90	10.1 /90
G. Kondogbia	4	67266 min	72.4 /90	41.4 /90	10.3 /90	134.4 /90	31 /90	00 /90
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Marseille — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. de Lange n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
H. Abdelli n 8	80.1	1.4 6/3	0.4 3/0	—
A. Gouiri n 8	68.8	0.7 4/0	0.7 2/1	—
N. Aguerd n 8	70.8	0.8 3/1	0.2 1/0	—
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	0.5 3/1	1 5/1	—
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Marseille — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
H. Abdelli n 8	80.1	2 5/4
A. Gouiri n 8	68.8	0.7 2/1
N. Aguerd n 8	70.8	0.6 3/1
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	1.2 5/1
Emerson n 8	78.4	0.7 4/1
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Marseille Attacking

Marseille — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Gouiri	11	75820 min	50.5 /90	20.2 /90	161.8 /90	91 /90	111.2 /90	70.8 /90
K. Abdallah	9	45408 min	20.4 /90	00 /90	153.3 /90	51.1 /90	71.5 /90	81.8 /90
N. Maupay	6	50302 min	00 /90	00 /90	51.5 /90	00 /90	20.6 /90	30.9 /90
T. Mmadi	1	1818 min	00 /90	00 /90	15 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
H. Abdelli	11	78858 min	30.3 /90	10.1 /90	70.7 /90	30.3 /90	111.2 /90	70.7 /90
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Marseille — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. de Lange n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
H. Abdelli n 8	80.1	0.8 3/2	0.4 3/0
A. Gouiri n 8	68.8	1.3 4/2	0.5 1/1
N. Aguerd n 8	70.8	0.6 3/1	0 0/0
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
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Marseille — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. de Lange n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
H. Abdelli n 8	80.1	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
A. Gouiri n 8	68.8	0.2 1/0	0.3 2/0
N. Aguerd n 8	70.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Egan-Riley n 8	81.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Toulouse

Toulouse Goalkeeper

Toulouse — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Guillaume Restes	7	87611 min	172.5 /90	81.2 /90	00 /90
M. Niflore	2	55109 min	32.5 /90	32.5 /90	00 /90

Toulouse — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Guillaume Restes n 8	87.6	2.4 5/3

Toulouse Defensive

Toulouse — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
M. McKenzie	8	90720 min	91.1 /90	70.9 /90	40.5 /90	384.8 /90	121.5 /90	10.1 /90
C. Tape	8	89714 min	60.8 /90	40.5 /90	30.4 /90	303.8 /90	111.4 /90	10.1 /90
R. Messali	8	59472 min	132.5 /90	112.1 /90	20.4 /90	336.3 /90	122.3 /90	10.2 /90
R. Nicolaisen	5	89445 min	20.4 /90	71.4 /90	51 /90	275.5 /90	81.6 /90	10.2 /90
S. Koumbassa	3	90270 min	41.3 /90	20.7 /90	31 /90	93 /90	51.7 /90	10.3 /90
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Toulouse — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
C. Cásseres n 8	90	2 7/6	1.9 7/5	—
M. McKenzie n 8	90	1.5 7/4	1 7/1	—
C. Tape n 8	89.3	1.4 6/3	0.6 5/0	—
T. Jørgensen n 8	87.8	1.3 5/3	0.9 4/1	—
J. Russell-Rowe n 8	68.4	1.2 6/1	0.5 2/1	—
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Toulouse — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
C. Cásseres n 8	90	4 8/8
M. McKenzie n 8	90	1.1 6/2
C. Tape n 8	89.3	0.8 3/3
T. Jørgensen n 8	87.8	1.8 6/5
J. Russell-Rowe n 8	68.4	0.2 1/0
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Toulouse Attacking

Toulouse — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
J. Russell-Rowe	8	68547 min	20.3 /90	00 /90	111.8 /90	71.2 /90	20.3 /90	30.5 /90
C. Tengstedt	6	68406 min	51.1 /90	10.2 /90	194.2 /90	81.8 /90	30.7 /90	20.4 /90
S. Hidalgo	4	48191 min	00 /90	00 /90	62.8 /90	52.4 /90	10.5 /90	20.9 /90
S. Oppong	4	27109 min	10.8 /90	00 /90	10.8 /90	10.8 /90	00 /90	43.3 /90
C. Cásseres	8	90720 min	00 /90	50.6 /90	50.6 /90	10.1 /90	263.3 /90	111.4 /90
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Toulouse — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
C. Cásseres n 8	90	0.6 3/1	0.1 1/0
M. McKenzie n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Tape n 8	89.3	0.8 4/2	0.3 2/0
T. Jørgensen n 8	87.8	1.5 7/2	0.8 3/2
J. Russell-Rowe n 8	68.4	1.8 6/3	1.2 4/2
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Toulouse — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
C. Cásseres n 8	90	0 0/0	0.6 4/1
M. McKenzie n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Tape n 8	89.3	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
T. Jørgensen n 8	87.8	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
J. Russell-Rowe n 8	68.4	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Marseille v Toulouse — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

MarseilleWLWLW

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

ToulouseDWDWD

Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · 2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Marseille 3 · 3 draws · Toulouse 0 · 3.67 goals/game

2026-03-07 Toulouse 0–1 Marseille
2026-03-04 Marseille 2–2 Toulouse
2025-11-29 Marseille 2–2 Toulouse
2025-04-06 Marseille 3–2 Toulouse
2024-08-31 Toulouse 1–3 Marseille
2024-04-21 Toulouse 2–2 Marseille

League standing · 2026/27

Marseille#8 pos12 pts8 pl+5 GD

Toulouse#11 pos10 pts8 pl+1 GD

Goals per game

Marseille scored2.25

Toulouse scored1.5

Marseille conceded1.63

Toulouse conceded1.38

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Marseille v Toulouse?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Marseille v Toulouse is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.57 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Toulouse?: In their last 6 meetings, Marseille won 3, Toulouse won 0 and there were 3 draws, averaging 3.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Marseille and Toulouse?: Recent form — Marseille 3W 0D 2L; Toulouse 2W 3D 0L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 29 Oct 2026, 09:03 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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