This Matchweek

RennesMarseille

Rennes v Marseille result

Full-time · Rennes 1–0 Marseille

Ligue 1 · · Roazhon Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Rennes · Marseille · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Rennes 1–0 Marseille — Rennes won this Ligue 1 match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.57 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.5% of 505 landed (95% range 64.3–72.4%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 589 of 919 times (64.1%), against an average rating of 67.5%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Rennes: 2.32 to 1.31 in expected goals, from 20 shots to 13, ahead on xG from the 52nd minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Rennes beat Marseille 1–0 at Roazhon Park in Ligue 1 on Friday 11 September. Rennes have scored in 11 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Rennes: Adrien Thomasson (52’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Adrien Thomasson’s goal on 52 minutes.

Discipline

Jeremy Stinat, France showed five yellow cards — against 3.5 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Rennes: Przemysław Frankowski (43’); Marseille: Himad Abdelli (33’), Igor Paixão (43’), Amine Harit (85’) and Timothy Weah (90+4’).

What it changes

Rennes move up from fourth to first (four league matches played).

Marseille move down from 10th to 11th (four league matches played).

Rennes are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions. Marseille have lost their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Adrien Thomasson (Rennes) 9.5, Mahamadou Nagida (Rennes) 6.0 and Brice Samba (Rennes) 5.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.5% of the time in the last 90 days (346 of 505).

Next up

Rennes next travel to Lorient on 21 November 2026.

Marseille next host Le Mans on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Rennes: Lorient v Rennes, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Marseille: Marseille v Le Mans, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Rennes 1–0 Marseille · Ligue 1
  • Venue: Roazhon Park · Rennes
  • Referee: Jeremy Stinat, France
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Rennes 2 · draws 0 · Marseille 4 · 3.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Rennes 3W 1D 1L · Marseille 3W 0D 2L

Rennes 1–0 Marseille (Ligue 1): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 25 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.13 / 1.38
Goals
against 1.75 / 1.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
6.63 / 5.13
Corners
against 6.38 / 4.5 · 5 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.75 / 5.63
Shots on target
against 5.38 / 4.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 2
Cards
against 1.63 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 6 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameRennes for / againstLineMarseille for / against
Goals scored
2.13 for · 1.75 against n 8
3.25our book
1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
6.63 for · 6.38 against n 8
9.5standard
5.13 for · 4.5 against n 8
Shots
17.13 for · 17.13 against n 8
19.5standard
16.5 for · 13 against n 8
Shots on target
5.75 for · 5.38 against n 8
8.5standard
5.63 for · 4.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.63 for · 11 against n 8
21.5standard
11.75 for · 11 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 1.63 against n 8
3.5standard
2 for · 2 against n 8

Referee: Jeremy Stinat, France.

Rennes

Rennes Goalkeeper

Rennes — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
B. Samba290180 min52.5 /9031.5 /9000 /90
N. Lemaitre19090 min33 /9022 /9000 /90
Rennes — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rennes before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
B. Samba n 890
2.55/4

Rennes Defensive

Rennes — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
C. Cresswell390270 min10.3 /9031 /9051.7 /90144.7 /9031 /9010.3 /90
Przemysław Frankowski389268 min62 /9051.7 /9000 /90103.4 /9051.7 /9000 /90
A. Ait Boudlal290180 min63 /9063 /9042 /90136.5 /9021 /9010.5 /90
Q. Merlin273146 min00 /9021.2 /9000 /9021.2 /9053.1 /9000 /90
M. Nagida250100 min54.5 /9021.8 /9010.9 /9087.2 /9021.8 /9000 /90
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Rennes — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rennes before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
C. Cresswell n 390
12/1
0.31/0
Emerson
Esteban Lepaul n 889.1
0.32/0
0.42/1
A. Gouiri
Przemysław Frankowski n 860.9
1.55/2
0.94/1
Emerson
V. Rongier n 888
1.35/3
0.65/0
P. Højbjerg
S. Szymański n 863.1
0.53/0
1.25/2
—
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Rennes — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rennes before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
C. Cresswell n 390
0.31/0
Esteban Lepaul n 889.1
0.11/0
Przemysław Frankowski n 860.9
1.54/1
V. Rongier n 888
2.68/6
S. Szymański n 863.1
2.56/3
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Rennes Attacking

Rennes — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Esteban Lepaul390269 min31 /9000 /90134.3 /9082.7 /9020.7 /9010.3 /90
I. Soumaré357170 min00 /9010.5 /9021.1 /9000 /9021.1 /9021.1 /90
L. Blas337111 min00 /9000 /9054.1 /9010.8 /9054.1 /9032.4 /90
A. Nordin13030 min00 /9000 /9013 /9013 /9000 /9000 /90
Eliezer Mayenda11616 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9015.6 /9015.6 /90
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Rennes — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rennes before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
C. Cresswell n 390
0.31/0
00/0
Esteban Lepaul n 889.1
3.88/8
2.18/5
Przemysław Frankowski n 860.9
0.21/0
0.21/0
V. Rongier n 888
0.32/0
0.32/0
S. Szymański n 863.1
1.16/0
0.53/0
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Rennes — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rennes before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
C. Cresswell n 390
00/0
00/0
Esteban Lepaul n 889.1
17/1
0.32/0
Przemysław Frankowski n 860.9
0.21/0
0.21/0
V. Rongier n 888
0.32/0
0.11/0
S. Szymański n 863.1
0.21/0
0.42/0
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Marseille

Marseille Goalkeeper

Marseille — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. de Lange390270 min93 /9051.7 /9000 /90
Marseille — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. de Lange n 890
2.57/4

Marseille Defensive

Marseille — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
T. Weah390270 min31 /9010.3 /9010.3 /9093 /9031 /9000 /90
Emerson390269 min62 /9020.7 /9000 /90144.7 /9031 /9000 /90
C. Egan-Riley385255 min72.5 /9020.7 /9000 /90186.4 /9010.4 /9000 /90
N. Aguerd340120 min10.8 /9000 /9010.8 /9086 /9021.5 /9010.8 /90
G. Kondogbia271141 min63.8 /9031.9 /9010.6 /9074.5 /9010.6 /9000 /90
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Marseille — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
P. Højbjerg n 887.3
1.46/3
1.26/3
V. Rongier
A. Gouiri n 877.9
12/2
1.45/3
Esteban Lepaul
T. Weah n 884
0.85/1
0.53/1
—
J. de Lange n 890
00/0
00/0
—
Emerson n 886.4
0.53/1
0.74/1
Przemysław Frankowski
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Marseille — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
P. Højbjerg n 887.3
1.76/4
T. Weah n 884
1.56/4
A. Gouiri n 877.9
0.63/1
Emerson n 886.4
2.26/6
A. Harit n 864.5
1.65/4
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Marseille Attacking

Marseille — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Gouiri390270 min41.3 /9000 /9082.7 /9062 /9010.3 /9010.3 /90
K. Abdallah32677 min11.2 /9000 /9044.7 /9022.3 /9033.5 /9044.7 /90
T. Mmadi11818 min00 /9000 /9015 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
N. Maupay11717 min00 /9000 /9015.3 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
P. Højbjerg390270 min10.3 /9000 /9031 /9010.3 /9041.3 /9020.7 /90
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Marseille — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Gouiri n 877.9
1.96/3
1.24/2
P. Højbjerg n 887.3
1.35/4
0.43/0
T. Weah n 884
0.96/1
0.32/0
J. de Lange n 890
00/0
00/0
Emerson n 886.4
0.54/0
0.11/0
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Marseille — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Gouiri n 877.9
0.73/2
0.11/0
P. Højbjerg n 887.3
0.43/0
0.11/0
J. de Lange n 890
00/0
00/0
T. Weah n 884
00/0
00/0
Emerson n 886.4
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
RennesMarseille
49%Possession51%
1.88Expected goals (xG)1.34
20Shots13
7Shots on target5
6Shots off target7
7Blocked shots1
13Shots inside the box8
3Corners5
1Offsides1
15Fouls13
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
5Saves6
496Passes525
84%Pass accuracy84%

Rennes Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
B. Samba9000000007.9
C. Cresswell9000000207.7
A. Rouault9000000107.3
M. Nagida9000001407.3
M. Camara9000102007.2
V. Rongier9000222107.6
A. Thomasson9010214207.9
L. Blas7800221107.3
Esteban Lepaul7800202006.7
Przemysław Frankowski68000001Y7
I. Soumaré4500210006.3
Mousa Tamari sub4100111007.3
Bryan Reynolds sub2200000106.9
B. Dia sub1200001006.5
S. Szymański sub1200001106.7
Eliezer Mayenda sub900100006.6

Marseille Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
T. Weah90001115Y7.3
P. Højbjerg9000311207.2
A. Harit90001112Y7
Emerson9000102107.3
C. Egan-Riley9000000007.3
J. de Lange9000000009.3
Igor Paixão88002120Y6.5
A. Gouiri8800202006.7
N. Aguerd8800000006.6
H. Abdelli78000013Y6.7
A. Gomes6500101006.2
K. Abdallah sub2500000006.2
N. Maupay sub1200000006.3
D. Cornelius sub20011000–
T. Mmadi sub20000010–
F. Moumbagna sub20000000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Rennes v Marseille — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
RennesWLDWW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
MarseilleWWWLL
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Rennes 2 · 0 draws · Marseille 4 · 3.17 goals/game
  • 2026-05-17 Marseille 3–1 Rennes
  • 2026-02-03 Marseille 3–0 Rennes
  • 2025-08-15 Rennes 1–0 Marseille
  • 2025-05-17 Marseille 4–2 Rennes
  • 2025-01-11 Rennes 1–2 Marseille
  • 2024-03-17 Rennes 2–0 Marseille
League standing · 2026/27
Rennes#5 pos16 pts10 pl0 GD
Marseille#6 pos15 pts9 pl+7 GD
Goals per game
Rennes scored2.1
Marseille scored2.22
Rennes conceded2.1
Marseille conceded1.44

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Rennes 2.32 xG from 20 shots, Marseille 1.31 from 13. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Adrien Thomasson 71' · 0.47 xGPierre-Emile Højbjerg 57' · 0.41 xGAngel Gomes 50' · 0.39 xGIssa Soumaré 24' · 0.37 xGIgor Paixão 72' · 0.09 xGLudovic Blas 55' · 0.08 xGPierre-Emile Højbjerg 34' · 0.08 xGAmine Gouiri 23' · 0.08 xGEsteban Lepaul 63' · 0.08 xGEliezer Mayenda 89' · 0.08 xGBoulaye Dia 86' · 0.07 xGAdrien Thomasson 51' · 0.07 xGMahdi Camara 70' · 0.07 xGEsteban Lepaul 61' · 0.07 xGAmine Harit 50' · 0.07 xGMousa Al Tamari 58' · 0.07 xGDerek Cornelius 92' · 0.06 xGMousa Al Tamari 67' · 0.06 xGPrzemyslaw Frankowski 35' · 0.06 xGIgor Paixão 10' · 0.05 xGValentin Rongier 43' · 0.05 xGMousa Al Tamari 51' · 0.05 xGValentin Rongier 19' · 0.03 xGMahdi Camara 76' · 0.02 xGAmine Harit 71' · 0.02 xGLudovic Blas 45' · 0.02 xGIssa Soumaré 41' · 0.02 xGEmerson 8' · 0.02 xGLudovic Blas 29' · 0.02 xGAmine Gouiri 31' · 0.02 xGPierre-Emile Højbjerg 28' · 0.01 xGTimothy Weah 31' · 0.01 xGAdrien Thomasson 52' · 0.56 xG · goal
Rennes (attacking right)Marseille (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Rennes2012.32
Marseille1301.31

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Rennes 0.57, Marseille 0.27. At full time, Rennes led on xG, 2.32 to 1.31. The widest gap was 1.08 xG to Rennes, in the 89th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.31.200′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Rennes 52 min
Rennes 2.32 xGMarseille 1.31 xGdots = goals · 33 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Rennes v Marseille?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Rennes v Marseille was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.57 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Marseille?
In their last 6 meetings, Rennes won 2, Marseille won 4 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Rennes and Marseille?
Recent form — Rennes 3W 1D 1L; Marseille 3W 0D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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