ChelseaNottingham Forest

Chelsea v Nottingham Forest result

Full-time · Chelsea 1–3 Nottingham Forest

Premier League · · Stamford Bridge

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Chelsea · Nottingham Forest · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Chelsea 1–3 Nottingham Forest — Nottingham Forest won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.7% of 5142 landed (95% range 76.5–78.8%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,910 of 2,556 times (74.7%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said little between the sides: Chelsea 2.17, Nottingham Forest 2.31 in expected goals (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Nottingham Forest won 3–1 at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League on Monday 4 May. Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last 10 matches in all competitions.

The goals

Nottingham Forest led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Nottingham Forest: Taiwo Awoniyi (2’, assisted by Dilane Bakwa; 52’, assisted by Morgan Gibbs-White) and Igor Jesus (15’ pen); Chelsea: João Pedro (90’, assisted by Marc Cucurella).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Taiwo Awoniyi’s goal on 2 minutes.

Discipline

A. Taylor showed four yellow cards — against 4.4 yellows a game across the last 22 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Chelsea: Malo Gusto (14’), Liam Delap (78’) and M. Caicedo (78’); Nottingham Forest: Morato (10’).

What it changes

Chelsea move down from seventh to ninth (35 league matches played). Chelsea have scored 58 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Chelsea have conceded 52 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Nottingham Forest stay 16th after this result (35 league matches played). Nottingham Forest have scored 48 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Nottingham Forest have conceded 51 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

It is Nottingham Forest’s first win over Chelsea since 2 September 2023, after four meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds). Nottingham Forest have scored in nine consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Taiwo Awoniyi (Nottingham Forest) 9.7, João Pedro (Chelsea) 7.1 and Matz Sels (Nottingham Forest) 6.6 led the match.

Head-to-head

Chelsea are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Nottingham Forest.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Chelsea or Nottingham Forest (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.7% of the time in the last 90 days (3993 of 5142).

Next up

Chelsea next travel to Sunderland on 8 November 2026.

Nottingham Forest next host Manchester City on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Chelsea: Sunderland v Chelsea, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest v Manchester City, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Chelsea 1–3 Nottingham Forest · Premier League
  • Venue: Stamford Bridge · London
  • Referee: A. Taylor
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Chelsea 3 · draws 2 · Nottingham Forest 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Chelsea 2W 0D 3L · Nottingham Forest 4W 1D 0L

Chelsea 1–3 Nottingham Forest (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 2.25
Goals
against 1.75 / 0.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
7 / 5
Corners
against 4 / 5.14 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.38 / 4.71
Shots on target
against 5 / 4 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.5 / 1.43
Cards
against 1.5 / 1.86 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
4.36 yellows
Referee · A. Taylor
21.32 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 22 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 30 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 30 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameChelsea for / againstLineNottingham Forest for / against
Goals scored
1 for · 1.75 against n 8
2.75our book
2.25 for · 0.5 against n 8
Corners won
7 for · 4 against n 8
9.5standard
5 for · 5.14 against n 7
Shots
14.88 for · 9.5 against n 8
19.5standard
11.43 for · 11.43 against n 7
Shots on target
4.38 for · 5 against n 8
8.5standard
4.71 for · 4 against n 7
Fouls committed
9.5 for · 11.5 against n 8
21.5standard
12.14 for · 10.57 against n 7
Cards shown
1.5 for · 1.5 against n 8
3.5standard
1.43 for · 1.86 against n 7

Referee: A. Taylor — 4.36 yellow cards a game, 0.09 red cards, 21.32 fouls over 22 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Chelsea

Chelsea Goalkeeper

Chelsea — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Robert Sánchez48894275 min1342.8 /90601.3 /9000 /90
F. Jörgensen1185939 min161.5 /90161.5 /9000 /90
Kepa Arrizabalaga19090 min22 /9000 /9000 /90
Chelsea — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 30 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Robert Sánchez n 890
36/5
F. Jörgensen n 884.4
25/3

Chelsea Defensive

Chelsea — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Gusto48683281 min862.4 /90541.5 /9050.1 /901574.3 /90270.7 /9070.2 /90
Marc Cucurella47793731 min812 /90471.1 /90160.4 /901734.2 /90661.6 /90100.2 /90
T. Chalobah45853839 min370.9 /90481.1 /90200.5 /901704 /90250.6 /9040.1 /90
R. James36752688 min622.1 /90461.5 /9090.3 /901384.6 /90321.1 /9060.2 /90
W. Fofana31742295 min240.9 /90451.8 /90240.9 /901335.2 /90281.1 /9080.3 /90
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Chelsea — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 30 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
E. Fernández n 884.6
1.14/2
1.56/3
Igor Jesus
Pedro Neto n 883.9
1.24/3
0.53/1
—
Robert Sánchez n 890
00/0
0.43/0
—
M. Gusto n 876.4
0.11/0
1.25/2
—
M. Caicedo n 883.9
1.37/2
1.97/4
—
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Chelsea — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 30 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
E. Fernández n 884.6
1.77/4
Pedro Neto n 883.9
0.42/1
M. Gusto n 876.4
2.14/3
M. Caicedo n 883.9
2.48/5
Marc Cucurella n 887.6
0.95/2
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Chelsea Attacking

Chelsea — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
João Pedro47723381 min210.6 /9060.2 /90701.9 /90391 /90391 /90461.2 /90
L. Delap31481473 min30.2 /9040.2 /90342.1 /90201.2 /90120.7 /90161 /90
J. Bynoe-Gittens23461066 min10.1 /9050.4 /90141.2 /9070.6 /90171.4 /90353 /90
Tyrique George1148528 min40.7 /9010.2 /9091.5 /9081.4 /9081.4 /9030.5 /90
Marc Guiu1046456 min20.4 /9010.2 /90132.6 /9081.6 /9030.6 /9020.4 /90
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Chelsea — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 30 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
E. Fernández n 884.6
1.35/4
1.15/2
Pedro Neto n 883.9
0.32/0
0.32/0
Robert Sánchez n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Gusto n 876.4
0.32/0
0.32/0
M. Caicedo n 883.9
0.43/0
00/0
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Chelsea — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 30 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
E. Fernández n 884.6
0.32/0
0.32/0
Pedro Neto n 883.9
00/0
0.43/0
Robert Sánchez n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Gusto n 876.4
0.11/0
0.11/0
M. Caicedo n 883.9
00/0
00/0
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Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest Goalkeeper

Nottingham Forest — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Sels32892835 min842.7 /90401.3 /9000 /90
John989798 min121.4 /90121.4 /9000 /90
S. Ortega890720 min253.1 /9070.9 /9000 /90
Nottingham Forest — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 30 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Sels n 890
2.96/5
John n 888.5
1.43/1
S. Ortega n 890
3.17/5

Nottingham Forest Defensive

Nottingham Forest — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
N. Milenković47864029 min390.9 /90360.8 /90350.8 /901663.7 /90310.7 /9060.1 /90
N. Williams46823787 min1172.8 /90481.1 /90180.4 /902566.1 /90350.8 /9070.2 /90
Murillo34802736 min451.5 /90431.4 /90270.9 /90983.2 /90341.1 /9060.2 /90
O. Aina25832065 min411.8 /90361.6 /9040.2 /901114.8 /90160.7 /9030.1 /90
Morato25791981 min452 /90180.8 /90110.5 /90984.5 /90140.6 /9060.3 /90
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Nottingham Forest — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 30 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
N. Milenković n 876.3
0.94/1
0.11/0
—
Morgan Gibbs-White n 883.3
0.75/0
0.95/2
—
N. Williams n 882.4
1.17/1
0.85/1
—
E. Anderson n 889.6
1.58/4
1.87/5
—
Igor Jesus n 867.9
1.56/2
0.84/1
E. Fernández
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Nottingham Forest — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 30 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
N. Milenković n 876.3
1.55/3
Morgan Gibbs-White n 883.3
0.74/1
N. Williams n 882.4
1.95/4
E. Anderson n 889.6
2.67/5
Igor Jesus n 867.9
0.72/1
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Nottingham Forest Attacking

Nottingham Forest — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Igor Jesus43642746 min130.4 /9050.2 /90561.8 /90321 /90180.6 /90100.3 /90
C. Wood1560899 min50.5 /9000 /90232.3 /90101 /9050.5 /9010.1 /90
D. Bakwa1445635 min00 /9010.1 /9081.1 /9030.4 /90121.7 /9081.1 /90
A. Kalimuendo846369 min20.5 /9000 /9061.5 /9030.7 /9020.5 /9030.7 /90
T. Awoniyi829235 min20.8 /9000 /9083.1 /9051.9 /9020.8 /9020.8 /90
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Nottingham Forest — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 30 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. Milenković n 876.3
00/0
00/0
Morgan Gibbs-White n 883.3
1.97/4
1.16/1
N. Williams n 882.4
1.15/2
0.83/2
E. Anderson n 889.6
16/2
0.53/1
Igor Jesus n 867.9
27/3
1.35/2
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Nottingham Forest — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 30 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
N. Milenković n 876.3
00/0
00/0
Morgan Gibbs-White n 883.3
0.84/1
0.11/0
N. Williams n 882.4
0.11/0
0.42/1
E. Anderson n 889.6
0.32/0
00/0
Igor Jesus n 867.9
0.53/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
ChelseaNottingham Forest
67%Possession33%
2.15Expected goals (xG)2.05
21Shots6
5Shots on target4
8Shots off target1
8Blocked shots1
12Shots inside the box6
10Corners1
1Offsides2
12Fouls10
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Saves4
659Passes334
91%Pass accuracy80%

Chelsea Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Gusto90001150Y5.9
T. Chalobah9000100006.2
Marc Cucurella9001103206.2
M. Caicedo90000003Y7
C. Palmer9000321005.9
E. Fernández9000207107.5
João Pedro9010211007.9
Robert Sánchez6600000006.2
R. Lavia5800000306.9
T. Adarabioyo4500000206.2
J. Derry4400210106.6
L. Delap sub46001000Y6.2
Levi Colwill sub4500000106.7
Andrey Santos sub3200000107.2
F. Jörgensen sub2400000006.3

Nottingham Forest Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Sels9000000007.5
Morato90000001Y6.6
L. Netz9000000606.9
J. McAtee9000101106.3
R. Yates9000000206.9
T. Awoniyi9020220008.7
D. Bakwa8001002107.5
Jair4500000107.3
N. Domínguez4500000207
Igor Jesus4510220006.9
Z. Abbott4400000206.5
N. Williams sub4600000406.5
N. Milenković sub4500000006.7
E. Anderson sub4500001207.2
C. Wood sub2400000006.9
Morgan Gibbs-White sub2101001007.3
O. Hutchinson sub1000000006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Chelsea v Nottingham Forest — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
ChelseaWLLLW
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Nottingham ForestDWWWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.4 scored / 0.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Chelsea 3 · 2 draws · Nottingham Forest 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2025-10-18 Nottingham Forest 0–3 Chelsea
  • 2025-05-25 Nottingham Forest 0–1 Chelsea
  • 2024-10-06 Chelsea 1–1 Nottingham Forest
  • 2024-05-11 Nottingham Forest 2–3 Chelsea
  • 2023-09-02 Chelsea 0–1 Nottingham Forest
  • 2023-05-13 Chelsea 2–2 Nottingham Forest
League standing · 2025/26
Chelsea#10 pos52 pts38 pl+6 GD
Nottingham Forest#16 pos44 pts38 pl-3 GD
Goals per game
Chelsea scored1.53
Nottingham Forest scored1.26
Chelsea conceded1.37
Nottingham Forest conceded1.34

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Chelsea 2.17 xG from 21 shots, Nottingham Forest 2.31 from 6. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Cole Palmer 54' · 0.76 xGTrevoh Chalobah 95' · 0.11 xGIgor Jesus 32' · 0.11 xGJames McAtee 58' · 0.09 xGJoão Pedro 85' · 0.07 xGEnzo Fernández 33' · 0.07 xGMalo Gusto 43' · 0.07 xGLiam Delap 72' · 0.06 xGJesse Derry 34' · 0.06 xGAndrey Santos 70' · 0.06 xGLiam Delap 83' · 0.05 xGCole Palmer 87' · 0.05 xGJames McAtee 35' · 0.05 xGJesse Derry 25' · 0.04 xGEnzo Fernández 9' · 0.04 xGCole Palmer 17' · 0.04 xGMarc Cucurella 50' · 0.04 xGEnzo Fernández 87' · 0.03 xGCole Palmer 84' · 0.02 xGEnzo Fernández 10' · 0.02 xGRomeo Lavia 29' · 0.02 xGCole Palmer 92' · 0.01 xGEnzo Fernández 90' · 0.01 xGTaiwo Awoniyi 51' · 0.94 xG · goalIgor Jesus 14' · 0.76 xG · goalJoão Pedro 92' · 0.53 xG · goalTaiwo Awoniyi 1' · 0.35 xG · goal
Chelsea (attacking right)Nottingham Forest (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Chelsea2112.17
Nottingham Forest632.31

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Nottingham Forest led on xG, 1.28 to 0.36, 0.76 of it from a penalty, level on open-play xG. At full time, xG was level: Chelsea 2.17, Nottingham Forest 2.31, including 1.52 from a penalty. The widest gap was 1.82 xG to Nottingham Forest, in the 51st minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.31.200′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Nottingham Forest 1 minGoal - Nottingham Forest 14 minGoal - Nottingham Forest 51 minGoal - Chelsea 92 min
Chelsea 2.17 xGNottingham Forest 2.31 xGdots = goals · 27 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Chelsea v Nottingham Forest?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Chelsea v Nottingham Forest was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Nottingham Forest?
In their last 6 meetings, Chelsea won 3, Nottingham Forest won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Chelsea and Nottingham Forest?
Recent form — Chelsea 2W 0D 3L; Nottingham Forest 4W 1D 0L.

Today’s Boards

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