LeedsBrighton

Leeds v Brighton result

Full-time · Leeds 1–0 Brighton

Premier League · · Elland Road

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Leeds · Brighton · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Leeds 1–0 Brighton — Leeds won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 55% of 140 landed (95% range 46.7–63%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Brighton: 2.23 to 0.75 in expected goals, from 19 shots to 7, ahead on xG from the 12th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The result went the other way.

The result

Leeds beat Brighton 1–0 at Elland Road in the Premier League on Sunday 17 May.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Leeds: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (90’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s goal on 90 minutes.

Discipline

M. Oliver showed one yellow card — against 3.3 yellows a game across the last 22 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Leeds: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (90+7’).

What it changes

Leeds move up from 14th to 13th (37 league matches played). Leeds have scored 49 goals, the 10th-fewest of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 37 games, ranked per game). Leeds have conceded 53 goals, the seventh-most of the 20 clubs.

Brighton move down from sixth to seventh (37 league matches played). Brighton have scored 52 goals, the ninth-most of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 37 games, ranked per game). Brighton have conceded 43 goals, the third-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Leeds are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds) 5.4, James Justin (Leeds) 3.4 and Carlos Baleba (Brighton) 3.3 led the match.

Head-to-head

Brighton are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Leeds, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Leeds next travel to Chelsea on 21 November 2026.

Brighton next host Brentford on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Leeds: Chelsea v Leeds, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Brighton: Brighton v Brentford, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Leeds 1–0 Brighton · Premier League
  • Venue: Elland Road · Leeds, West Yorkshire
  • Referee: M. Oliver
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Leeds 0 · draws 3 · Brighton 3 · 2 goals/game
  • Recent form: Leeds 2W 2D 1L · Brighton 3W 1D 1L

Leeds 1–0 Brighton (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 1.75
Goals
against 1 / 0.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
3.86 / 5.13
Corners
against 7.29 / 5.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.86 / 5.25
Shots on target
against 4 / 3.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.14 / 2.25
Cards
against 2.43 / 2.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
3.27 yellows
Referee · M. Oliver
22.77 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 22 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 11 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLeeds for / againstLineBrighton for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 1 against n 8
2.75our book
1.75 for · 0.88 against n 8
Corners won
3.86 for · 7.29 against n 7
9.5standard
5.13 for · 5.13 against n 8
Shots
13.57 for · 11.86 against n 7
19.5standard
13 for · 10 against n 8
Shots on target
4.86 for · 4 against n 7
8.5standard
5.25 for · 3.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.29 for · 11.71 against n 7
21.5standard
12.25 for · 9.75 against n 8
Cards shown
2.14 for · 2.43 against n 7
3.5standard
2.25 for · 2.25 against n 8

Referee: M. Oliver — 3.27 yellow cards a game, 0.09 red cards, 22.77 fouls over 22 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

Create free account Try Pro for £1.00 then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Leeds

Leeds Goalkeeper

Leeds — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
K. Darlow21901890 min522.5 /90251.2 /9000 /90
Lucas Perri18901620 min422.3 /90301.7 /9000 /90
Leeds — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
K. Darlow n 890
2.14/2
Lucas Perri n 890
2.15/3

Leeds Defensive

Leeds — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
P. Struijk34872949 min391.2 /90310.9 /90180.5 /901775.4 /90270.8 /9060.2 /90
J. Bogle34832827 min662.1 /90321 /9060.2 /901384.4 /90401.3 /9070.2 /90
G. Gudmundsson34832819 min702.2 /90280.9 /9080.3 /901906.1 /90321 /9060.2 /90
J. Rodon33852817 min351.1 /90280.9 /90200.6 /901354.3 /90170.5 /9030.1 /90
J. Bijol25791968 min261.2 /90281.3 /90110.5 /901175.4 /90200.9 /9030.1 /90
See more players · Pro

Try Pro for £1, then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Leeds — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
E. Ampadu n 890
1.87/4
1.67/4
—
B. Aaronson n 866
0.73/1
1.76/3
F. Kadıoğlu
P. Struijk n 884.9
1.15/2
0.84/2
—
J. Bogle n 869.9
1.67/2
13/2
—
G. Gudmundsson n 883.8
0.74/1
2.88/6
—
See more players · Pro
Leeds — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
E. Ampadu n 890
2.56/6
B. Aaronson n 866
1.95/2
P. Struijk n 884.9
1.26/2
J. Bogle n 869.9
2.47/4
G. Gudmundsson n 883.8
1.67/4
See more players · Pro

Leeds Attacking

Leeds — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
B. Aaronson35692401 min40.1 /9050.2 /90281 /90170.6 /90321.2 /90291.1 /90
Dominic Calvert-Lewin34782657 min130.4 /9010 /90652.2 /90331.1 /90190.6 /9060.2 /90
N. Okafor27631708 min80.4 /9010.1 /90291.5 /90160.8 /90231.2 /90392.1 /90
L. Nmecha25451125 min40.3 /9030.2 /90262.1 /90151.2 /90110.9 /9050.4 /90
W. Gnonto1638615 min10.1 /9010.1 /9091.3 /9030.4 /90121.8 /9060.9 /90
See more players · Pro
Leeds — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
E. Ampadu n 890
0.42/1
0.32/0
B. Aaronson n 866
0.74/0
0.32/0
P. Struijk n 884.9
0.85/1
0.11/0
J. Bogle n 869.9
00/0
00/0
G. Gudmundsson n 883.8
0.73/2
0.11/0
See more players · Pro
Leeds — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
E. Ampadu n 890
00/0
00/0
B. Aaronson n 866
00/0
0.32/0
P. Struijk n 884.9
00/0
00/0
J. Bogle n 869.9
00/0
0.21/0
G. Gudmundsson n 883.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
See more players · Pro

Brighton

Brighton Goalkeeper

Brighton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
B. Verbruggen36903240 min1002.8 /90421.2 /9010 /90
Jason Steele590450 min224.4 /9061.2 /9000 /90
Brighton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
B. Verbruggen n 890
2.65/5
Jason Steele n 890
3.86/5

Brighton Defensive

Brighton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
F. Kadıoğlu40833336 min641.7 /90280.8 /9070.2 /901494 /90260.7 /9070.2 /90
J. van Hecke37873218 min531.5 /90441.2 /90310.9 /902085.8 /90270.8 /90100.3 /90
L. Dunk31892745 min331.1 /90291 /90280.9 /901203.9 /90150.5 /90110.4 /90
M. Wieffer25731836 min643.1 /90251.2 /9070.3 /901366.7 /90301.5 /9080.4 /90
M. De Cuyper22591302 min181.2 /90100.7 /9010.1 /90503.5 /90181.2 /9020.1 /90
See more players · Pro
Brighton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
F. Kadıoğlu n 890
0.94/2
15/3
B. Aaronson
J. van Hecke n 890
0.63/2
15/2
—
B. Verbruggen n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
D. Gómez n 873.4
3.48/8
0.21/0
—
D. Welbeck n 873.6
0.83/1
0.53/0
—
See more players · Pro
Brighton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
F. Kadıoğlu n 890
1.14/2
J. van Hecke n 890
2.18/5
D. Gómez n 873.4
3.17/6
D. Welbeck n 873.6
1.14/3
Y. Minteh n 878
2.77/5
See more players · Pro

Brighton Attacking

Brighton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
D. Welbeck34672279 min130.5 /9020.1 /90471.9 /90281.1 /90230.9 /90130.5 /90
G. Rutter30641909 min30.1 /9030.1 /90301.4 /90160.8 /90281.3 /90271.3 /90
C. Kostoulas943385 min00 /9010.2 /9092.1 /9030.7 /9051.2 /9071.6 /90
S. Tzimas934309 min30.9 /9020.6 /9072 /9051.5 /9061.7 /9020.6 /90
H. Howell460238 min10.4 /9020.8 /9031.1 /9020.8 /9031.1 /9020.8 /90
See more players · Pro
Brighton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
F. Kadıoğlu n 890
0.84/1
0.52/1
J. van Hecke n 890
0.53/1
0.32/0
B. Verbruggen n 890
00/0
00/0
D. Gómez n 873.4
1.26/1
0.64/0
D. Welbeck n 873.6
2.17/6
1.56/3
See more players · Pro
Brighton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
F. Kadıoğlu n 890
0.11/0
00/0
J. van Hecke n 890
00/0
0.11/0
B. Verbruggen n 890
00/0
00/0
D. Gómez n 873.4
0.32/0
0.21/0
D. Welbeck n 873.6
0.52/1
0.21/0
See more players · Pro

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LeedsBrighton
34%Possession66%
0.39Expected goals (xG)3.06
7Shots19
1Shots on target8
3Shots off target6
3Blocked shots5
3Shots inside the box15
7Corners8
3Offsides2
9Fouls7
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
7Saves1
280Passes556
67%Pass accuracy85%

Leeds Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
K. Darlow9000000008
J. Rodon9000001007.3
J. Bijol9000000007.3
E. Ampadu9000000107.7
J. Justin9000000206.9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin90101100Y7.9
S. Bornauw8900000107
A. Stach7400101307.2
D. James6000000106.9
A. Tanaka6000000006.9
B. Aaronson6000001006.7
S. Longstaff sub3000000106.6
W. Gnonto sub3000100206.7
L. Nmecha sub3000002006.6
J. Piroe sub1600100006.5
S. Byram sub1000000106.6

Brighton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
B. Verbruggen9000000006.2
J. van Hecke9000101005.6
L. Dunk9000101006.6
M. De Cuyper9000002007.2
P. Groß9000224107.7
F. Kadıoğlu9000113007.2
Y. Minteh8900001006.9
C. Baleba8200111007
J. Hinshelwood8200312106.5
J. Veltman6500000206.9
D. Welbeck6500110106.7
G. Rutter sub2500211106.5
D. Gómez sub2500100006
S. March sub800000006.5
Y. Ayari sub800000006.3
C. Kostoulas sub800111007

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Leeds v Brighton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LeedsWDLWD
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1 conceded per game
BrightonWDWLW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.2 scored / 1 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Leeds 0 · 3 draws · Brighton 3 · 2 goals/game
  • 2025-11-01 Brighton 3–0 Leeds
  • 2023-03-11 Leeds 2–2 Brighton
  • 2022-08-27 Brighton 1–0 Leeds
  • 2022-05-15 Leeds 1–1 Brighton
  • 2021-11-27 Brighton 0–0 Leeds
  • 2021-05-01 Brighton 2–0 Leeds
League standing · 2025/26
Leeds#14 pos47 pts38 pl-7 GD
Brighton#8 pos53 pts38 pl+6 GD
Goals per game
Leeds scored1.29
Brighton scored1.37
Leeds conceded1.47
Brighton conceded1.21

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Leeds 0.75 xG from 7 shots, Brighton 2.23 from 19. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Jan Paul van Hecke 43' · 0.56 xGDiego Gómez 66' · 0.40 xGDanny Welbeck 50' · 0.13 xGMaxim De Cuyper 50' · 0.13 xGDiego Gómez 88' · 0.13 xGGeorginio Rutter 74' · 0.12 xGDiego Gómez 97' · 0.11 xGJoël Veltman 12' · 0.11 xGJack Hinshelwood 80' · 0.11 xGJack Hinshelwood 50' · 0.10 xGLewis Dunk 36' · 0.08 xGJoël Piroe 76' · 0.06 xGCharalampos Kostoulas 85' · 0.05 xGDaniel James 10' · 0.04 xGJames Justin 69' · 0.04 xGFerdi Kadioglu 54' · 0.04 xGDanny Welbeck 54' · 0.04 xGAnton Stach 55' · 0.03 xGWilfried Gnonto 62' · 0.03 xGGeorginio Rutter 78' · 0.03 xGJack Hinshelwood 48' · 0.03 xGCarlos Baleba 6' · 0.02 xGPascal Groß 19' · 0.02 xGPascal Groß 42' · 0.02 xGDaniel James 25' · 0.02 xGDominic Calvert-Lewin 95' · 0.53 xG · goal
Leeds (attacking right)Brighton (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Leeds710.75
Brighton1902.23

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Brighton led on xG, 0.82 to 0.06. At full time, Brighton led on xG, 2.23 to 0.75. The widest gap was 1.90 xG to Brighton, in the 88th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.21.100′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Leeds 95 min
Leeds 0.75 xGBrighton 2.23 xGdots = goals · 26 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

Try Pro for £1

then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Leeds v Brighton?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Leeds v Brighton was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Brighton?
In their last 6 meetings, Leeds won 0, Brighton won 3 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Leeds and Brighton?
Recent form — Leeds 2W 2D 1L; Brighton 3W 1D 1L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
Share this prediction: X · Facebook · WhatsApp · Telegram

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

Unlock all 246 predictions, advanced stats & the model v the market with ProTry Pro for £1 then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+