LeedsBurnley

Leeds v Burnley result

Full-time · Leeds 3–1 Burnley

Premier League · · Elland Road

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Leeds · Burnley · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Leeds 3–1 Burnley — Leeds won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home win.

Free pick
Home win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 78.5% of 279 landed (95% range 73.3–82.9%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated a home win between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 178 of 266 times (66.9%), against an average rating of 68.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Leeds: 2.13 to 0.44 in expected goals, from 18 shots to 9, ahead on xG from the 0th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Leeds beat Burnley 3–1 at Elland Road in the Premier League on Friday 1 May. Burnley are winless in their last 10 matches in all competitions.

The goals

Leeds led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Leeds: Anton Stach (8’, assisted by Jaka Bijol), Noah Okafor (52’, assisted by Jayden Bogle) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (56’); Burnley: Loum Tchaouna (71’, assisted by Jaidon Anthony).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Anton Stach’s goal on 8 minutes.

Discipline

T. Bramall showed seven yellow cards — against 4.3 yellows a game across the last 17 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Leeds: Pascal Struijk (27’), Joseph Rodon (40’), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (48’) and Ethan Ampadu (75’); Burnley: Bashir Humphreys (35’), Loum Tchaouna (37’) and Hannibal Mejbri (88’).

What it changes

Leeds move up from 15th to 14th (35 league matches played). Leeds have scored 49 goals, the 10th-fewest of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Leeds have conceded 56 goals, the fifth-most of the 20 clubs.

Burnley stay 19th after this result (35 league matches played). Burnley have scored 38 goals, the second-fewest of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Burnley have conceded 75 goals, the most of the 20 clubs.

It is Leeds’s first win over Burnley since 2 January 2022, after three meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Anton Stach (Leeds) 8.0, Noah Okafor (Leeds) 5.8 and Jaka Bijol (Leeds) 5.4 led the match.

Head-to-head

Burnley are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Leeds.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Leeds to win, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Leeds next host Tottenham on 7 November 2026.

Burnley next travel to Cardiff on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Leeds: Leeds v Tottenham, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Burnley: Cardiff v Burnley, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Leeds 3–1 Burnley · Premier League
  • Venue: Elland Road · Leeds, West Yorkshire
  • Referee: T. Bramall
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Leeds 2 · draws 2 · Burnley 2 · 2.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Leeds 2W 2D 1L · Burnley 0W 1D 4L

Leeds 3–1 Burnley (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 0.75
Goals
against 0.75 / 2.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
4.43 / 4.75
Corners
against 6.43 / 6.75 · 4 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.43 / 3.13
Shots on target
against 3.57 / 5.25 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.29 / 1.63
Cards
against 2.29 / 1.25 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
4.29 yellows
Referee · T. Bramall
21.53 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 17 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 26 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 26 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLeeds for / againstLineBurnley for / against
Goals scored
1.5 for · 0.75 against n 8
3our book
0.75 for · 2.13 against n 8
Corners won
4.43 for · 6.43 against n 7
9.5standard
4.75 for · 6.75 against n 8
Shots
13 for · 11 against n 7
19.5standard
9.5 for · 17.13 against n 8
Shots on target
4.43 for · 3.57 against n 7
8.5standard
3.13 for · 5.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.57 for · 11.71 against n 7
21.5standard
10.13 for · 9.25 against n 8
Cards shown
2.29 for · 2.29 against n 7
3.5standard
1.63 for · 1.25 against n 8

Referee: T. Bramall — 4.29 yellow cards a game, 0.06 red cards, 21.53 fouls over 17 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Leeds

Leeds Goalkeeper

Leeds — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
K. Darlow19901710 min492.6 /90231.2 /9000 /90
Lucas Perri18901620 min422.3 /90301.7 /9000 /90
Leeds — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
K. Darlow n 890
2.65/4
Lucas Perri n 890
2.15/3

Leeds Defensive

Leeds — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
G. Gudmundsson34832819 min702.2 /90280.9 /9080.3 /901906.1 /90321 /9060.2 /90
J. Bogle33832738 min652.1 /90311 /9060.2 /901354.4 /90401.3 /9070.2 /90
P. Struijk32882803 min381.2 /90301 /90170.5 /901705.5 /90250.8 /9050.2 /90
J. Rodon31852637 min331.1 /90270.9 /90180.6 /901314.5 /90140.5 /9010 /90
J. Bijol23781788 min251.3 /90281.4 /9080.4 /901075.4 /90191 /9030.2 /90
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Leeds — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
E. Ampadu n 890
1.47/4
1.57/3
J. Anthony
G. Gudmundsson n 883.8
0.74/1
2.88/6
—
J. Bogle n 869.3
1.98/3
13/2
J. Anthony
B. Aaronson n 873.3
0.84/1
1.75/3
—
P. Struijk n 880.4
15/1
0.84/2
M. Estève
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Leeds — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
E. Ampadu n 890
2.67/6
G. Gudmundsson n 883.8
1.67/4
J. Bogle n 869.3
2.36/4
B. Aaronson n 873.3
1.85/2
P. Struijk n 880.4
1.46/3
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Leeds Attacking

Leeds — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
B. Aaronson33702320 min40.2 /9050.2 /90281.1 /90170.7 /90311.2 /90281.1 /90
Dominic Calvert-Lewin32772478 min110.4 /9010 /90612.2 /90311.1 /90180.7 /9060.2 /90
N. Okafor26631643 min70.4 /9010.1 /90281.5 /90150.8 /90211.2 /90392.1 /90
L. Nmecha23471073 min40.3 /9030.3 /90242 /90131.1 /90110.9 /9050.4 /90
W. Gnonto1539588 min10.2 /9010.2 /9091.4 /9030.5 /90111.7 /9050.8 /90
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Leeds — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
E. Ampadu n 890
0.42/1
0.32/0
G. Gudmundsson n 883.8
0.73/2
0.11/0
J. Bogle n 869.3
0.31/1
0.21/0
B. Aaronson n 873.3
0.95/1
0.53/0
P. Struijk n 880.4
0.63/1
0.11/0
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Leeds — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
E. Ampadu n 890
00/0
00/0
G. Gudmundsson n 883.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
J. Bogle n 869.3
00/0
00/0
B. Aaronson n 873.3
00/0
0.32/0
P. Struijk n 880.4
00/0
00/0
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Burnley

Burnley Goalkeeper

Burnley — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Dúbravka34903060 min1223.6 /90682 /9000 /90
M. Weiß490360 min92.3 /9061.5 /9000 /90
Burnley — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Dúbravka n 890
2.86/4

Burnley Defensive

Burnley — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Estève33872855 min391.2 /90381.2 /90311 /901314.1 /90130.4 /9010 /90
K. Walker31882729 min461.5 /90391.3 /90100.3 /901234.1 /90291 /9090.3 /90
Q. Hartman22881945 min552.5 /90331.5 /9040.2 /90743.4 /90120.6 /9010 /90
H. Ekdal19861628 min251.4 /90110.6 /90140.8 /90844.6 /9080.4 /9010.1 /90
B. Humphreys18851537 min271.6 /90100.6 /90171 /90694 /90130.8 /9050.3 /90
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Burnley — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Dúbravka n 890
00/0
0.43/0
—
M. Estève n 888
0.43/0
0.11/0
P. Struijk
J. Anthony n 888
0.53/1
0.64/1
J. Bogle
L. Ugochukwu n 870.8
15/1
0.52/1
—
K. Walker n 884
0.53/1
0.84/2
—
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Burnley — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Estève n 888
1.46/3
J. Anthony n 888
1.25/4
L. Ugochukwu n 870.8
1.46/2
K. Walker n 884
1.34/3
J. Laurent n 864
1.96/3
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Burnley Attacking

Burnley — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
L. Foster24591414 min20.1 /9030.2 /90130.8 /9060.4 /90110.7 /90100.6 /90
L. Tchaouna24481156 min20.2 /9000 /90171.3 /9080.6 /9080.6 /9070.5 /90
Z. Flemming23701604 min90.5 /9000 /90352 /90211.2 /9080.4 /9050.3 /90
J. Bruun Larsen23481101 min00 /9030.2 /90121 /9050.4 /90161.3 /90131.1 /90
Marcus Edwards18661190 min10.1 /9030.2 /90131 /9060.5 /90211.6 /90181.4 /90
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Burnley — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Dúbravka n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Estève n 888
0.32/0
00/0
J. Anthony n 888
1.97/4
0.96/1
L. Ugochukwu n 870.8
0.53/0
0.21/0
K. Walker n 884
00/0
00/0
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Burnley — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Dúbravka n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Estève n 888
00/0
00/0
J. Anthony n 888
0.11/0
00/0
L. Ugochukwu n 870.8
00/0
0.21/0
K. Walker n 884
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LeedsBurnley
48%Possession52%
1.64Expected goals (xG)0.57
18Shots9
8Shots on target3
5Shots off target2
5Blocked shots4
11Shots inside the box5
5Corners0
0Offsides1
12Fouls12
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
2Saves5
452Passes508
79%Pass accuracy83%

Leeds Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
K. Darlow9000000007
J. Rodon90001110Y6.3
J. Bijol9001001107.3
P. Struijk90001000Y6.2
E. Ampadu90000010Y6.5
J. Justin9000110407.2
J. Bogle8901002107.3
Dominic Calvert-Lewin89102100Y6.7
A. Stach7210313208
A. Tanaka7200211006.9
N. Okafor6510112107.3
L. Nmecha sub2500110006.9
B. Aaronson sub1800000106.6
S. Longstaff sub1800002007
D. James sub10011000–
W. Gnonto sub10000000–

Burnley Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Dúbravka9000000006.6
K. Walker9000001206.2
M. Estève9000000106.5
H. Ekdal9000001306.6
L. Tchaouna90101111Y7.3
J. Anthony9001101106.5
B. Humphreys76001101Y5.7
Z. Flemming7600001006.6
Q. Hartman6500000205.9
J. Ward-Prowse6500110006.6
J. Laurent5400100006.5
H. Mejbri sub36000000Y6.6
Lucas Pires sub2500001006.7
Florentino sub2500000206.6
Zeki Amdouni sub1400000006.6
A. Broja sub1400001006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Leeds v Burnley — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LeedsDWWDL
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
BurnleyDLLLL
Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.4 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Leeds 2 · 2 draws · Burnley 2 · 2.17 goals/game
  • 2025-10-18 Burnley 2–0 Leeds
  • 2025-01-27 Burnley 0–0 Leeds
  • 2024-09-14 Leeds 0–1 Burnley
  • 2022-01-02 Leeds 3–1 Burnley
  • 2021-08-29 Burnley 1–1 Leeds
  • 2021-05-15 Burnley 0–4 Leeds
League standing · 2025/26
Leeds#14 pos47 pts38 pl-7 GD
Burnley#19 pos22 pts38 pl-37 GD
Goals per game
Leeds scored1.29
Burnley scored1
Leeds conceded1.47
Burnley conceded1.97

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Leeds 2.13 xG from 18 shots, Burnley 0.44 from 9. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Lukas Nmecha 73' · 0.14 xGDaniel James 99' · 0.11 xGDominic Calvert-Lewin 0' · 0.11 xGJaidon Anthony 95' · 0.09 xGAnton Stach 21' · 0.08 xGEthan Ampadu 15' · 0.07 xGPascal Struijk 64' · 0.07 xGAnton Stach 45' · 0.06 xGZeki Amdouni 94' · 0.06 xGBashir Humphreys 67' · 0.06 xGJoe Rodon 84' · 0.06 xGAnton Stach 9' · 0.05 xGEthan Ampadu 39' · 0.04 xGAo Tanaka 15' · 0.04 xGAo Tanaka 55' · 0.04 xGAnton Stach 51' · 0.04 xGJaidon Anthony 44' · 0.03 xGJames Justin 45' · 0.02 xGNoah Okafor 51' · 0.02 xGJames Ward-Prowse 46' · 0.02 xGHannibal Mejbri 94' · 0.02 xGJosh Laurent 44' · 0.01 xGKyle Walker 94' · 0.01 xGDominic Calvert-Lewin 55' · 0.74 xG · goalNoah Okafor 51' · 0.44 xG · goalLoum Tchaouna 70' · 0.13 xG · goalAnton Stach 7' · 0.02 xG · goal
Leeds (attacking right)Burnley (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Leeds1832.13
Burnley910.44

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Leeds led on xG, 0.49 to 0.05. At full time, Leeds led on xG, 2.13 to 0.44. The widest gap was 1.76 xG to Leeds, in the 64th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.11.100′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Leeds 7 minGoal - Leeds 51 minGoal - Leeds 55 minGoal - Burnley 70 min
Leeds 2.13 xGBurnley 0.44 xGdots = goals · 27 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Leeds v Burnley?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Leeds v Burnley was Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Burnley?
In their last 6 meetings, Leeds won 2, Burnley won 2 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Leeds and Burnley?
Recent form — Leeds 2W 2D 1L; Burnley 0W 1D 4L.

Today’s Boards

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