Manchester CityAston Villa

Manchester City v Aston Villa result

Full-time · Manchester City 1–2 Aston Villa

Premier League · · Etihad Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Manchester City · Aston Villa · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Manchester City 1–2 Aston Villa — Aston Villa won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 544 of 845 times (64.4%), against an average rating of 67.7%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Aston Villa: 2.44 to 1.38 in expected goals, from 12 shots to 16, ahead on xG from the 61st minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Aston Villa won 2–1 at Etihad Stadium in the Premier League on Sunday 24 May. Manchester City have scored in 14 consecutive matches in all competitions. Aston Villa have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Aston Villa came from behind: Manchester City led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Manchester City: Antoine Semenyo (23’); Aston Villa: O. Watkins (47’; 61’, assisted by Ross Barkley).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with O. Watkins’s goal on 61 minutes.

Discipline

A. Madley showed one yellow card — against 3.3 yellows a game across the last 18 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Manchester City: Rico Lewis (82’).

What it changes

Manchester City stay second after this result (38 league matches played). Manchester City have scored 77 goals, the most of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Manchester City have conceded 35 goals, the second-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Aston Villa stay fourth after this result (38 league matches played). Aston Villa have scored 56 goals, the seventh-most of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Aston Villa have conceded 49 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, O. Watkins (Aston Villa) 10.9, E. Buendía (Aston Villa) 9.1 and Ian Maatsen (Aston Villa) 5.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Manchester City next travel to Nottingham Forest on 7 November 2026.

Aston Villa next travel to Manchester United on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Manchester City: Nottingham Forest v Manchester City, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Aston Villa: Manchester United v Aston Villa, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Manchester City 1–2 Aston Villa · Premier League
  • Venue: Etihad Stadium · Manchester
  • Referee: A. Madley
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Manchester City 3 · draws 0 · Aston Villa 3 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Manchester City 3W 2D 0L · Aston Villa 3W 1D 1L

Manchester City 1–2 Aston Villa (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2 / 2.25
Goals
against 0.75 / 1.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
8.38 / 5.88
Corners
against 4.13 / 4 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.88 / 5.63
Shots on target
against 2.5 / 4.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.25 / 1.63
Cards
against 2.25 / 1.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.28 yellows
Referee · A. Madley
22.72 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 18 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 20 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameManchester City for / againstLineAston Villa for / against
Goals scored
2 for · 0.75 against n 8
3.5our book
2.25 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
8.38 for · 4.13 against n 8
9.5standard
5.88 for · 4 against n 8
Shots
19.13 for · 7.88 against n 8
19.5standard
13.38 for · 10.75 against n 8
Shots on target
5.88 for · 2.5 against n 8
8.5standard
5.63 for · 4.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
8.63 for · 12.25 against n 8
21.5standard
11.75 for · 12.25 against n 8
Cards shown
1.25 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
1.63 for · 1.88 against n 8

Referee: A. Madley — 3.28 yellow cards a game, 0.28 red cards, 22.72 fouls over 18 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Manchester City

Manchester City Goalkeeper

Manchester City — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
G. Donnarumma43903870 min992.3 /90411 /9020 /90
J. Trafford15901350 min332.2 /90100.7 /9010.1 /90
A. Ramsdale19090 min55 /9033 /9000 /90
Manchester City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 20 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
G. Donnarumma n 890
2.36/3
J. Trafford n 890
2.36/2

Manchester City Defensive

Manchester City — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
N. O'Reilly54764077 min1052.3 /90310.7 /90160.4 /902405.3 /90671.5 /9080.2 /90
Matheus Nunes50824105 min811.8 /90461 /90100.2 /902244.9 /90360.8 /9070.2 /90
A. Khusanov35792767 min581.9 /90591.9 /90140.5 /901113.6 /90270.9 /9070.2 /90
Rúben Dias32832646 min220.7 /90260.9 /90200.7 /901063.6 /90240.8 /9040.1 /90
J. Gvardiol25771928 min281.3 /90271.3 /90130.6 /90884.1 /90241.1 /9020.1 /90
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Manchester City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 20 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
E. Haaland n 881.1
0.85/1
0.43/0
—
N. O'Reilly n 877.9
1.76/4
0.73/2
—
Matheus Nunes n 886
0.94/2
0.53/1
—
Bernardo Silva n 882.9
0.53/1
0.84/1
—
J. Doku n 873.4
1.24/2
3.87/7
—
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Manchester City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 20 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
E. Haaland n 881.1
0.42/1
N. O'Reilly n 877.9
1.35/2
Matheus Nunes n 886
1.45/3
Bernardo Silva n 882.9
2.46/4
J. Doku n 873.4
0.94/2
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Manchester City Attacking

Manchester City — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
E. Haaland54794289 min400.8 /90100.2 /901513.2 /90911.9 /90390.8 /90210.4 /90
Sávio28541523 min50.3 /9030.2 /90291.7 /90191.1 /90251.5 /90543.2 /90
Omar Marmoush25541351 min60.4 /9030.2 /90342.3 /90171.1 /90201.3 /90151 /90
R. McAidoo279158 min10.6 /9000 /9042.3 /9031.7 /9031.7 /9052.8 /90
A. Elanga14545 min12 /9000 /9024 /9012 /9000 /9024 /90
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Manchester City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 20 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
E. Haaland n 881.1
2.67/4
1.57/2
N. O'Reilly n 877.9
0.93/1
0.73/1
Matheus Nunes n 886
00/0
00/0
Bernardo Silva n 882.9
0.74/1
0.11/0
J. Doku n 873.4
1.46/3
1.15/2
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Manchester City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 20 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
E. Haaland n 881.1
0.75/0
0.32/0
N. O'Reilly n 877.9
0.11/0
00/0
Matheus Nunes n 886
00/0
0.11/0
Bernardo Silva n 882.9
00/0
00/0
J. Doku n 873.4
0.63/1
0.32/0
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Aston Villa

Aston Villa Goalkeeper

Aston Villa — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
E. Martínez44883871 min1252.9 /90491.1 /9010 /90
M. Bizot1283991 min474.3 /90111 /9000 /90
Aston Villa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 20 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
E. Martínez n 890
3.48/6
M. Bizot n 878.9
46/6

Aston Villa Defensive

Aston Villa — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
E. Konsa47874080 min300.7 /90280.6 /90390.9 /901383 /90180.4 /9010 /90
M. Cash47833885 min841.9 /90320.7 /90160.4 /901784.1 /90521.2 /90120.3 /90
L. Digne41672747 min491.6 /90190.6 /9050.2 /901143.7 /90331.1 /9060.2 /90
Pau Torres34842860 min300.9 /90170.5 /90300.9 /90922.9 /90160.5 /9010 /90
I. Maatsen30692063 min502.2 /90180.8 /9030.1 /901175.1 /90170.7 /9030.1 /90
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Aston Villa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 20 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Rogers n 889.9
1.98/4
1.57/4
—
O. Watkins n 880
1.48/2
0.43/0
—
E. Konsa n 890
0.11/0
1.57/2
—
M. Cash n 888.8
0.86/0
0.95/2
—
E. Buendía n 866.4
1.75/3
2.97/5
—
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Aston Villa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 20 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Rogers n 889.9
1.15/3
O. Watkins n 880
0.42/1
E. Konsa n 890
0.54/0
M. Cash n 888.8
2.36/5
E. Buendía n 866.4
1.56/2
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Aston Villa Attacking

Aston Villa — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
O. Watkins53703724 min190.5 /9050.1 /90761.8 /90511.2 /90360.9 /90340.8 /90
D. Malen22461001 min50.4 /9020.2 /90282.5 /90141.3 /9080.7 /90161.4 /90
T. Abraham1040396 min20.5 /9010.2 /9040.9 /9030.7 /9071.6 /9000 /90
Alysson Edward22243 min00 /9000 /9012.1 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
M. Rogers54844539 min140.3 /90110.2 /90811.6 /90460.9 /90781.5 /90671.3 /90
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Aston Villa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 20 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Rogers n 889.9
1.47/3
0.85/1
O. Watkins n 880
2.57/4
1.86/3
E. Konsa n 890
0.32/0
0.11/0
M. Cash n 888.8
0.32/0
00/0
E. Buendía n 866.4
2.27/3
1.25/2
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Aston Villa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 20 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Rogers n 889.9
0.43/0
0.43/0
O. Watkins n 880
0.84/2
0.43/0
E. Konsa n 890
0.11/0
00/0
M. Cash n 888.8
00/0
0.11/0
E. Buendía n 866.4
0.53/0
0.32/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Manchester CityAston Villa
53%Possession47%
1.34Expected goals (xG)1.77
16Shots12
3Shots on target5
7Shots off target5
6Blocked shots2
10Shots inside the box9
9Corners4
1Offsides1
8Fouls4
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
3Saves2
481Passes440
89%Pass accuracy90%

Manchester City Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Trafford9000000006.3
R. Lewis90000010Y6
Rúben Dias9000001006.7
Nico González9000001307.3
Sávio9000202006.6
P. Foden9000003006.5
J. Stones7800000106.5
N. Aké7700000006.7
T. Reijnders7700410006.3
Bernardo Silva5900110406.9
A. Semenyo5810111007.5
R. Cherki sub3200100006.3
M. Kovačić sub3100001006.6
R. Aït-Nouri sub1300000207
J. Doku sub1300100006.6
J. Gvardiol sub1200000006.6

Aston Villa Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Bizot9000000006.9
T. Mings9000000106.9
I. Maatsen9000002406.6
L. Bailey9000200206.3
E. Buendía9000213807.9
O. Watkins9020320109.3
R. Barkley8601001206.7
V. Lindelöf7300000106.6
L. Bogarde7300000006.7
Douglas Luiz7300000107.2
Andrés García4500000406.6
M. Cash sub4500001006.6
Pau Torres sub1700100006.6
Y. Tielemans sub1700112207.6
A. Onana sub1700000106.6
J. McGinn sub1600110106.9

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Manchester City v Aston Villa — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Manchester CityDWWWD
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 2.2 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Aston VillaLWDWW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Manchester City 3 · 0 draws · Aston Villa 3 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2025-10-26 Aston Villa 1–0 Manchester City
  • 2025-04-22 Manchester City 2–1 Aston Villa
  • 2024-12-21 Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City
  • 2024-04-03 Manchester City 4–1 Aston Villa
  • 2023-12-06 Aston Villa 1–0 Manchester City
  • 2023-02-12 Manchester City 3–1 Aston Villa
League standing · 2025/26
Manchester City#2 pos78 pts38 pl+42 GD
Aston Villa#4 pos65 pts38 pl+7 GD
Goals per game
Manchester City scored2.03
Aston Villa scored1.47
Manchester City conceded0.92
Aston Villa conceded1.29

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Manchester City 1.38 xG from 16 shots, Aston Villa 2.44 from 12. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Pau Torres 82' · 0.41 xGLeon Bailey 75' · 0.33 xGOllie Watkins 74' · 0.13 xGBernardo Silva 11' · 0.12 xGTijjani Reijnders 9' · 0.11 xGNathan Aké 42' · 0.11 xGSávio 28' · 0.09 xGTijjani Reijnders 42' · 0.09 xGNico González 38' · 0.08 xGJohn McGinn 86' · 0.07 xGRico Lewis 29' · 0.06 xGMateo Kovacic 99' · 0.06 xGLeon Bailey 49' · 0.06 xGOllie Watkins 87' · 0.06 xGEmiliano Buendía 52' · 0.06 xGEmiliano Buendía 55' · 0.05 xGJéremy Doku 97' · 0.05 xGTijjani Reijnders 33' · 0.05 xGSávio 36' · 0.04 xGIan Maatsen 55' · 0.03 xGMathis Cherki 67' · 0.03 xGSávio 4' · 0.03 xGTijjani Reijnders 20' · 0.01 xGJéremy Doku 85' · 0.01 xGYouri Tielemans 96' · 0.01 xGOllie Watkins 61' · 0.62 xG · goalOllie Watkins 46' · 0.62 xG · goalAntoine Semenyo 22' · 0.42 xG · goal
Manchester City (attacking right)Aston Villa (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Manchester City1611.38
Aston Villa1222.44

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Manchester City led on xG, 1.23 to 0.00. At full time, Aston Villa led on xG, 2.44 to 1.38. The widest gap was 1.23 xG to Manchester City, in the 42nd minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.41.200′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Manchester City 22 minGoal - Aston Villa 46 minGoal - Aston Villa 61 min
Manchester City 1.38 xGAston Villa 2.44 xGdots = goals · 28 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Manchester City v Aston Villa?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Manchester City v Aston Villa was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester City and Aston Villa?
In their last 6 meetings, Manchester City won 3, Aston Villa won 3 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Manchester City and Aston Villa?
Recent form — Manchester City 3W 2D 0L; Aston Villa 3W 1D 1L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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