Manchester UnitedNottingham Forest

Manchester United v Nottingham Forest result

Full-time · Manchester United 3–2 Nottingham Forest

Premier League · · Old Trafford

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Manchester United · Nottingham Forest · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Manchester United 3–2 Nottingham Forest — Manchester United won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 55% of 140 landed (95% range 46.7–63%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Manchester United: 4.34 to 1.84 in expected goals, from 29 shots to 11, ahead on xG from the fifth minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Manchester United beat Nottingham Forest 3–2 at Old Trafford in the Premier League on Sunday 17 May. It is Manchester United’s first win over Nottingham Forest since 28 February 2024, after three meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

Manchester United led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Manchester United: Luke Shaw (5’), Matheus Cunha (55’) and Bryan Mbeumo (76’, assisted by Bruno Fernandes); Nottingham Forest: Morato (53’, assisted by Elliot Anderson) and Morgan Gibbs-White (78’, assisted by Elliot Anderson).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Matheus Cunha’s goal on 55 minutes.

Discipline

M. Salisbury showed three yellow cards — against 4.6 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Manchester United: Casemiro (78’) and Luke Shaw (90+3’); Nottingham Forest: Elliot Anderson (90+4’).

What it changes

Manchester United stay third after this result (37 league matches played). Manchester United have scored 66 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 37 games, ranked per game). Manchester United have conceded 50 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Nottingham Forest move down from 15th to 16th (37 league matches played). Nottingham Forest have scored 47 goals, the seventh-fewest of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 37 games, ranked per game). Nottingham Forest have conceded 50 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Manchester United are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions. Nottingham Forest are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Elliot Anderson (Nottingham Forest) 12.7, Morgan Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest) 9.2 and Matheus Cunha (Manchester United) 7.6 led the match.

Head-to-head

Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Manchester United.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Manchester United next host Aston Villa on 8 November 2026.

Nottingham Forest next host Manchester City on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Manchester United: Manchester United v Aston Villa, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest v Manchester City, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Manchester United 3–2 Nottingham Forest · Premier League
  • Venue: Old Trafford · Manchester
  • Referee: M. Salisbury
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Manchester United 2 · draws 1 · Nottingham Forest 3 · 3.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Manchester United 3W 1D 1L · Nottingham Forest 3W 1D 1L

Manchester United 3–2 Nottingham Forest (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 2
Goals
against 1.25 / 1 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
5.88 / 4.5
Corners
against 5.13 / 4.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.88 / 4.5
Shots on target
against 4.25 / 4.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.88 / 1.63
Cards
against 2.25 / 1.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4.64 yellows
Referee · M. Salisbury
23.18 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 11 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 10 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameManchester United for / againstLineNottingham Forest for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 1.25 against n 8
3.25our book
2 for · 1 against n 8
Corners won
5.88 for · 5.13 against n 8
9.5standard
4.5 for · 4.38 against n 8
Shots
13.5 for · 14.13 against n 8
19.5standard
12 for · 13.13 against n 8
Shots on target
4.88 for · 4.25 against n 8
8.5standard
4.5 for · 4.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.25 for · 11.13 against n 8
21.5standard
12.38 for · 11.63 against n 8
Cards shown
2.88 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
1.63 for · 1.75 against n 8

Referee: M. Salisbury — 4.64 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 23.18 fouls over 11 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

Create free account Try Pro for £1.00 then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Manchester United

Manchester United Goalkeeper

Manchester United — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
S. Lammens31902790 min762.5 /90391.3 /9000 /90
A. Bayındır690540 min132.2 /90111.8 /9000 /90
Manchester United — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester United before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
S. Lammens n 890
3.17/7
A. Bayındır n 890
25/2

Manchester United Defensive

Manchester United — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
L. Shaw36853059 min722.1 /90421.2 /9090.3 /901614.7 /90451.3 /9080.2 /90
Diogo Dalot33792607 min491.7 /90270.9 /9090.3 /901294.5 /90250.9 /9050.2 /90
Leny Yoro29621806 min331.6 /90311.5 /90110.5 /90854.2 /90170.8 /9010 /90
H. Maguire18811457 min191.2 /90110.7 /90100.6 /90865.3 /90120.7 /9030.2 /90
Lisandro Martínez15751120 min161.3 /90110.9 /90100.8 /90433.5 /90100.8 /9000 /90
See more players · Pro

Try Pro for £1, then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Manchester United — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester United before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
L. Shaw n 884.3
1.37/3
1.58/2
N. Williams
Bruno Fernandes n 889.9
15/3
0.54/0
Igor Jesus
Diogo Dalot n 873.6
1.14/3
0.63/1
N. Milenković
Matheus Cunha n 887.5
1.87/5
1.96/4
Igor Jesus
Casemiro n 885.3
1.67/3
1.66/4
Morgan Gibbs-White
See more players · Pro
Manchester United — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester United before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
L. Shaw n 884.3
2.57/5
Bruno Fernandes n 889.9
1.36/3
Diogo Dalot n 873.6
1.86/4
Matheus Cunha n 887.5
1.47/3
Casemiro n 885.3
3.67/5
See more players · Pro

Manchester United Attacking

Manchester United — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Matheus Cunha33762513 min90.3 /9020.1 /90602.1 /90341.2 /90331.2 /90441.6 /90
B. Mbeumo31802467 min90.3 /9030.1 /90542 /90301.1 /90461.7 /90160.6 /90
Benjamin Šeško30571717 min120.6 /9010.1 /90552.9 /90371.9 /9090.5 /90100.5 /90
M. Mount1757965 min30.3 /9000 /90131.2 /9050.5 /90131.2 /9050.5 /90
J. Zirkzee1247560 min20.3 /9010.2 /90142.3 /9061 /9091.4 /9020.3 /90
See more players · Pro
Manchester United — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester United before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
L. Shaw n 884.3
0.31/1
00/0
Bruno Fernandes n 889.9
1.16/2
0.52/1
Diogo Dalot n 873.6
0.84/1
0.21/0
Matheus Cunha n 887.5
1.88/5
1.38/2
Casemiro n 885.3
1.56/3
0.96/1
See more players · Pro
Manchester United — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester United before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
L. Shaw n 884.3
00/0
00/0
Bruno Fernandes n 889.9
0.11/0
0.85/1
Diogo Dalot n 873.6
00/0
00/0
Matheus Cunha n 887.5
0.43/0
00/0
Casemiro n 885.3
0.54/0
00/0
See more players · Pro

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest Goalkeeper

Nottingham Forest — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Sels34893015 min932.8 /90421.3 /9010 /90
S. Ortega990810 min313.4 /90111.2 /9000 /90
John989798 min121.4 /90121.4 /9000 /90
Nottingham Forest — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Sels n 890
36/5
S. Ortega n 890
3.67/6
John n 888.5
1.43/1

Nottingham Forest Defensive

Nottingham Forest — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
N. Milenković50854254 min430.9 /90400.8 /90390.8 /901773.7 /90340.7 /9060.1 /90
N. Williams49824013 min1262.8 /90541.2 /90180.4 /902746.1 /90360.8 /9070.2 /90
Murillo34802736 min451.5 /90431.4 /90270.9 /90983.2 /90341.1 /9060.2 /90
Morato28802232 min481.9 /90210.8 /90140.6 /901044.2 /90190.8 /9080.3 /90
O. Aina25832065 min411.8 /90361.6 /9040.2 /901114.8 /90160.7 /9030.1 /90
See more players · Pro
Nottingham Forest — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
N. Milenković n 876.3
1.36/2
0.11/0
Diogo Dalot
N. Williams n 884.5
0.75/0
1.56/3
L. Shaw
E. Anderson n 884.3
1.77/6
2.18/5
—
Morgan Gibbs-White n 876.6
0.96/0
0.74/1
Casemiro
Igor Jesus n 872.8
1.97/3
0.84/1
Matheus Cunha
See more players · Pro
Nottingham Forest — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
N. Milenković n 876.3
1.85/4
N. Williams n 884.5
2.97/7
E. Anderson n 884.3
2.58/5
Morgan Gibbs-White n 876.6
0.74/1
Igor Jesus n 872.8
0.94/1
See more players · Pro

Nottingham Forest Attacking

Nottingham Forest — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Igor Jesus46642964 min140.4 /9050.2 /90621.9 /90371.1 /90210.6 /90120.4 /90
C. Wood18561011 min50.4 /9000 /90242.1 /90111 /9050.4 /9010.1 /90
D. Bakwa1747798 min00 /9020.2 /9080.9 /9030.3 /90151.7 /90121.4 /90
T. Awoniyi1040398 min40.9 /9000 /90112.5 /9081.8 /9030.7 /9020.5 /90
A. Kalimuendo846369 min20.5 /9000 /9061.5 /9030.7 /9020.5 /9030.7 /90
See more players · Pro
Nottingham Forest — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. Milenković n 876.3
00/0
00/0
N. Williams n 884.5
0.84/1
0.52/1
E. Anderson n 884.3
0.84/1
0.32/0
Morgan Gibbs-White n 876.6
1.96/4
15/1
Igor Jesus n 872.8
2.38/4
1.76/3
See more players · Pro
Nottingham Forest — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nottingham Forest before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
N. Milenković n 876.3
00/0
00/0
N. Williams n 884.5
0.11/0
0.11/0
E. Anderson n 884.3
0.32/0
00/0
Morgan Gibbs-White n 876.6
0.94/1
0.32/0
Igor Jesus n 872.8
0.53/0
0.21/0
See more players · Pro

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Manchester UnitedNottingham Forest
48%Possession52%
4.57Expected goals (xG)1.88
29Shots11
8Shots on target4
9Shots off target4
12Blocked shots3
21Shots inside the box11
7Corners6
0Offsides1
11Fouls5
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
2Saves5
438Passes472
87%Pass accuracy84%

Manchester United Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
S. Lammens9000000007.2
Diogo Dalot9000102406.9
H. Maguire9000000206.9
Lisandro Martínez9000001307.3
L. Shaw90101100Y7.2
K. Mainoo9000003006.9
A. Diallo9000211106.6
Bruno Fernandes9001318208.7
Casemiro81001022Y7.2
Matheus Cunha8010114108.5
B. Mbeumo8010410006.6
P. Dorgu sub1000110006.9
J. Zirkzee sub1000221006.5
M. Mount sub900100107

Nottingham Forest Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Sels9000000006.9
N. Williams9000001306.6
N. Milenković9000100106.2
Morato9010110207.3
E. Anderson90020033Y9.3
Morgan Gibbs-White9010331107.7
L. Netz8400000105.9
Igor Jesus8400000106.6
O. Hutchinson7000001006.3
N. Domínguez7000101407.2
C. Wood7000100006.3
I. Sangaré sub2000000106.9
D. Bakwa sub2000000006.6
T. Awoniyi sub2000101006.5
Jair sub1500001107
J. McAtee sub1500001206.9

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Manchester United v Nottingham Forest — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Manchester UnitedLWWWD
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.4 scored / 1 conceded per game
Nottingham ForestWWWLD
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Manchester United 2 · 1 draw · Nottingham Forest 3 · 3.17 goals/game
  • 2025-11-01 Nottingham Forest 2–2 Manchester United
  • 2025-04-01 Nottingham Forest 1–0 Manchester United
  • 2024-12-07 Manchester United 2–3 Nottingham Forest
  • 2024-02-28 Nottingham Forest 0–1 Manchester United
  • 2023-12-30 Nottingham Forest 2–1 Manchester United
  • 2023-08-26 Manchester United 3–2 Nottingham Forest
League standing · 2025/26
Manchester United#3 pos71 pts38 pl+19 GD
Nottingham Forest#16 pos44 pts38 pl-3 GD
Goals per game
Manchester United scored1.82
Nottingham Forest scored1.26
Manchester United conceded1.32
Nottingham Forest conceded1.34

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Manchester United 4.34 xG from 29 shots, Nottingham Forest 1.84 from 11. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Bryan Mbeumo 20' · 0.85 xGBryan Mbeumo 46' · 0.56 xGMorgan Gibbs-White 61' · 0.38 xGBryan Mbeumo 63' · 0.36 xGMorgan Gibbs-White 20' · 0.32 xGMatheus Cunha 77' · 0.22 xGJoshua Zirkzee 97' · 0.15 xGNicolás Domínguez 32' · 0.14 xGCasemiro 20' · 0.14 xGJoshua Zirkzee 97' · 0.11 xGDiogo Dalot 95' · 0.11 xGJoshua Zirkzee 94' · 0.11 xGMorgan Gibbs-White 74' · 0.10 xGTaiwo Awoniyi 90' · 0.10 xGMatheus Cunha 67' · 0.09 xGBryan Mbeumo 54' · 0.09 xGBruno Fernandes 41' · 0.09 xGAmad Diallo Traore 66' · 0.08 xGMorgan Gibbs-White 87' · 0.08 xGBryan Mbeumo 72' · 0.08 xGPatrick Dorgu 82' · 0.07 xGChris Wood 43' · 0.07 xGLisandro Martínez 37' · 0.06 xGBruno Fernandes 88' · 0.05 xGCasemiro 62' · 0.04 xGBruno Fernandes 81' · 0.04 xGIgor Jesus 73' · 0.04 xGNikola Milenkovic 27' · 0.03 xGMason Mount 93' · 0.03 xGBruno Fernandes 30' · 0.03 xGHarry Maguire 50' · 0.03 xGCasemiro 14' · 0.03 xGBruno Fernandes 13' · 0.02 xGMatheus Cunha 14' · 0.02 xGAmad Diallo Traore 41' · 0.01 xGMorato 52' · 0.48 xG · goalMatheus Cunha 54' · 0.43 xG · goalBryan Mbeumo 75' · 0.39 xG · goalMorgan Gibbs-White 77' · 0.09 xG · goalLuke Shaw 5' · 0.06 xG · goal
Manchester United (attacking right)Nottingham Forest (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Manchester United2934.34
Nottingham Forest1121.84

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Manchester United led on xG, 1.31 to 0.56. At full time, Manchester United led on xG, 4.34 to 1.84. The widest gap was 2.50 xG to Manchester United, in the 97th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
4.32.200′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Manchester United 5 minGoal - Nottingham Forest 52 minGoal - Manchester United 54 minGoal - Manchester United 75 minGoal - Nottingham Forest 77 min
Manchester United 4.34 xGNottingham Forest 1.84 xGdots = goals · 40 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

Try Pro for £1

then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Manchester United v Nottingham Forest?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Manchester United v Nottingham Forest was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and Nottingham Forest?
In their last 6 meetings, Manchester United won 2, Nottingham Forest won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Manchester United and Nottingham Forest?
Recent form — Manchester United 3W 1D 1L; Nottingham Forest 3W 1D 1L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
Share this prediction: X · Facebook · WhatsApp · Telegram

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

Unlock all 246 predictions, advanced stats & the model v the market with ProTry Pro for £1 then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+