AroucaEstoril

Arouca v Estoril result

Full-time · Arouca 3–2 Estoril

Primeira Liga · · Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Arouca · Estoril · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Arouca 3–2 Estoril — Arouca won this Primeira Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5059 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,935 of 2,588 times (74.8%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Arouca beat Estoril 3–2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Monday 6 April. It is Arouca’s first win over Estoril since 20 January 2024, after three meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

It was 2–2 at half-time. The goals — Estoril: Xeka (3’, assisted by João Carvalho) and Yanis Begraoui (32’, assisted by André Lacximicant); Arouca: Barbero (13’, assisted by Näis Djouahra), José Fontán (45’, assisted by Barbero) and Pablo Gozálbez (55’, assisted by Tiago Esgaio).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Pablo Gozálbez’s goal on 55 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Arouca 1.98, Estoril 1.12, from 12 shots to 12 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

A. Nobre showed five yellow cards — against 5.1 yellows a game across the last 9 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Arouca: Pablo Gozálbez (56’), I. de Arruabarrena (90+1’) and Miguel Puche (90+7’); Estoril: Jordan Holsgrove (23’) and André Lacximicant (71’).

What it changes

Arouca have scored 47 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 19 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 34 games, ranked per game). Arouca have conceded 64 goals, the second-most of the 19 clubs.

Estoril have scored 54 goals, the fifth-most of the 19 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 34 games, ranked per game). Estoril have conceded 57 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 19 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Barbero (Arouca) 7.1, Yanis Begraoui (Estoril) 7.1 and Pablo Gozálbez (Arouca) 6.6 led the match.

Head-to-head

Estoril are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Arouca.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Arouca or Estoril (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (3938 of 5059).

Next up

Arouca next host Rio Ave on 28 November 2026.

Estoril next host Maritimo on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Arouca: Arouca v Rio Ave, Saturday 28 November — the preview. Next for Estoril: Estoril v Maritimo, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Arouca 3–2 Estoril · Primeira Liga
  • Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca
  • Referee: A. Nobre
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Arouca 2 · draws 1 · Estoril 3 · 4.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: Arouca 2W 0D 3L · Estoril 2W 1D 2L

Arouca 3–2 Estoril (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 1.38
Goals
against 1.38 / 1.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3 / 5
Corners
against 5.25 / 5.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.63 / 3.88
Shots on target
against 4.38 / 4.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.63 / 2
Cards
against 3 / 2.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
5.11 yellows
Referee · A. Nobre
26.89 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 9 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 22 March 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 22 March 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameArouca for / againstLineEstoril for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.5standard
1.38 for · 1.63 against n 8
Corners won
3 for · 5.25 against n 8
9.5standard
5 for · 5.5 against n 8
Shots
11.13 for · 13.63 against n 8
19.5standard
11 for · 12.38 against n 8
Shots on target
4.63 for · 4.38 against n 8
8.5standard
3.88 for · 4.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.25 for · 13.13 against n 8
21.5standard
12.13 for · 11.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2.63 for · 3 against n 8
3.5standard
2 for · 2.63 against n 8

Referee: A. Nobre — 5.11 yellow cards a game, 0.22 red cards, 26.89 fouls over 9 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Arouca

Arouca Goalkeeper

Arouca — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
I. de Arruabarrena1090900 min282.8 /90131.3 /9000 /90
João Valido990810 min252.8 /90242.7 /9010.1 /90
Nico Mantl890720 min263.3 /90182.3 /9000 /90
Arouca — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
I. de Arruabarrena n 890
36/5
João Valido n 890
38/5
Nico Mantl n 890
3.26/6

Arouca Defensive

Arouca — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
José Fontán24842005 min281.3 /90301.3 /9080.4 /90964.3 /90291.3 /9080.4 /90
Tiago Esgaio22841837 min221.1 /90211 /90140.7 /90954.7 /90311.5 /9090.4 /90
B. Popović16721147 min90.7 /90110.9 /90131 /90393.1 /90120.9 /9030.2 /90
A. Danté1361794 min202.3 /9050.6 /9080.9 /90394.4 /90111.2 /9000 /90
B. Kuipers1077773 min00 /9050.6 /9030.3 /90172 /9060.7 /9010.1 /90
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Arouca — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
N. Djouahra n 884.9
00/0
00/0
João Carvalho
A. Trezza n 883.8
28/3
1.26/2
—
T. Fukui n 889.4
0.96/1
1.86/5
J. Holsgrove
José Fontán n 890
1.47/4
0.54/0
F. Bacher
Lee Hyun-Ju n 881
2.28/5
3.27/6
João Carvalho
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Arouca — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
N. Djouahra n 884.9
1.75/3
A. Trezza n 883.8
1.54/3
T. Fukui n 889.4
2.57/5
José Fontán n 890
1.55/3
Lee Hyun-Ju n 881
0.64/0
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Arouca Attacking

Arouca — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Barbero21631328 min60.4 /9010.1 /90261.8 /90130.9 /90100.7 /9020.1 /90
D. Nandín1653851 min10.1 /9000 /90121.3 /9060.6 /9091 /9030.3 /90
Miguel Puche1542631 min10.1 /9010.1 /9091.3 /9050.7 /90101.4 /9081.1 /90
B. Mansilla1027269 min00 /9000 /9051.7 /9010.3 /9051.7 /9062 /90
N. Djouahra27802171 min60.2 /9020.1 /90311.3 /90180.7 /90220.9 /90281.2 /90
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Arouca — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. Djouahra n 884.9
1.27/2
0.75/0
A. Trezza n 883.8
1.25/3
0.73/2
T. Fukui n 889.4
0.64/1
0.31/1
José Fontán n 890
0.52/2
00/0
Lee Hyun-Ju n 881
15/2
0.64/0
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Arouca — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
N. Djouahra n 884.9
0.11/0
0.11/0
A. Trezza n 883.8
0.32/0
00/0
T. Fukui n 889.4
00/0
00/0
José Fontán n 890
00/0
0.32/0
Lee Hyun-Ju n 881
0.43/0
0.11/0
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Estoril

Estoril Goalkeeper

Estoril — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Joel Robles27902430 min752.8 /90441.6 /9000 /90
Estoril — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Joel Robles n 890
2.97/5

Estoril Defensive

Estoril — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
F. Bacher27902430 min341.3 /90391.4 /90150.6 /901365 /90301.1 /9030.1 /90
Ferro21621311 min292 /90302.1 /9080.5 /90795.4 /90141 /9020.1 /90
Ricard Sánchez20731461 min281.7 /90140.9 /9020.1 /90784.8 /90251.5 /9080.5 /90
Pedro Carvalho20551097 min191.6 /90121 /9000 /90373 /90171.4 /9040.3 /90
K. Boma19871659 min261.4 /90241.3 /90140.8 /90945.1 /90191 /9050.3 /90
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Estoril — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
F. Bacher n 890
1.16/2
1.17/2
José Fontán
Joel Robles n 890
00/0
00/0
—
Y. Begraoui n 886
0.84/1
16/2
—
J. Holsgrove n 889.4
0.85/1
1.87/5
T. Fukui
João Carvalho n 888.5
0.54/0
1.56/3
Lee Hyun-Ju
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Estoril — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
F. Bacher n 890
0.83/2
Y. Begraoui n 886
0.84/1
J. Holsgrove n 889.4
1.96/6
João Carvalho n 888.5
1.17/2
R. Guitane n 867.6
0.72/1
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Estoril Attacking

Estoril — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Y. Begraoui27782105 min170.7 /9010 /90522.2 /90301.3 /90170.7 /90150.6 /90
Alejandro Marqués18581046 min40.3 /9000 /90161.4 /90100.9 /9050.4 /90141.2 /90
André Lacximicant1657911 min20.2 /9010.1 /90242.4 /90111.1 /9090.9 /9050.5 /90
Fabrício Garcia627164 min00 /9000 /9021.1 /9010.5 /9000 /9010.5 /90
Peixinho521104 min00 /9000 /9021.7 /9000 /9010.9 /9043.5 /90
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Estoril — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
F. Bacher n 890
0.52/2
0.32/0
Joel Robles n 890
00/0
00/0
Y. Begraoui n 886
28/5
0.83/2
J. Holsgrove n 889.4
0.64/1
0.11/0
João Carvalho n 888.5
0.96/1
0.43/0
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Estoril — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
F. Bacher n 890
0.32/0
00/0
Joel Robles n 890
00/0
00/0
Y. Begraoui n 886
0.52/2
00/0
J. Holsgrove n 889.4
00/0
0.32/0
João Carvalho n 888.5
0.11/0
0.42/1
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
AroucaEstoril
46%Possession54%
1.98Expected goals (xG)1.12
12Shots12
4Shots on target3
7Shots off target7
1Blocked shots2
9Shots inside the box8
3Corners3
2Offsides0
13Fouls18
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
1Saves1
419Passes487
82%Pass accuracy83%

Arouca Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
I. de Arruabarrena90000000Y5.6
Tiago Esgaio9001102007.3
Javi Sánchez9000000106.6
José Fontán9010110107.2
B. Kuipers9000001306.7
E. van Ee9000000406.6
Lee Hyun-Ju8900000006.9
N. Djouahra8901004107.7
T. Fukui8300100006.9
Barbero8311421008.2
Pablo Gozálbez77102104Y7.2
Pedro Santos sub1600000206.9
B. Mansilla sub1600000006.3
Miguel Puche sub13002000Y6.5
F. Mayulu sub900000006.6
Mateo Flores sub900000006.5

Estoril Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Joel Robles9000000005.9
Ricard Sánchez9000201306.2
A. Tsoungui9000000006
F. Bacher9000000206.3
Jandro Orellana9000001006.6
J. Holsgrove90000020Y6.9
Y. Begraoui9010310107.6
André Lacximicant74012110Y6.5
Pedro Amaral6500001005.7
Xeka6510110207.5
João Carvalho6501102106.3
Pedro Carvalho sub2500102106.3
Alejandro Marqués sub2500001006.5
Pizzi sub2500000006.5
Peixinho sub1600000006.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Arouca v Estoril — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AroucaWLLLW
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
EstorilWLDWL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Arouca 2 · 1 draw · Estoril 3 · 4.33 goals/game
  • 2025-11-07 Estoril 4–3 Arouca
  • 2025-03-16 Arouca 1–1 Estoril
  • 2024-10-26 Estoril 4–1 Arouca
  • 2024-01-20 Estoril 1–2 Arouca
  • 2023-08-13 Arouca 4–3 Estoril
  • 2023-05-15 Estoril 2–0 Arouca
League standing · 2025/26
Arouca#8 pos42 pts34 pl-17 GD
Estoril#10 pos39 pts34 pl-3 GD
Goals per game
Arouca scored1.38
Estoril scored1.59
Arouca conceded1.88
Estoril conceded1.68

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Arouca v Estoril?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Arouca v Estoril was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Estoril?
In their last 6 meetings, Arouca won 2, Estoril won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 4.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Arouca and Estoril?
Recent form — Arouca 2W 0D 3L; Estoril 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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