Arouca v Estrela result

Full-time · Arouca 1–0 Estrela

Primeira Liga · Sun, 19 Apr 2026 15:30 BST · Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Arouca · Estrela · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Arouca 1–0 Estrela — Arouca won this Primeira Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick

Home or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5059 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,935 of 2,588 times (74.8%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Arouca beat Estrela 1–0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 19 April.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Arouca: Tiago Esgaio (46’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Tiago Esgaio’s goal on 46 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Arouca 1.01, Estrela 1.25, from 11 shots to 15 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

S. Guelho showed six yellow cards — against 4.9 yellows a game across the last 7 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Arouca: Espen van Ee (32’), Javi Sánchez (44’), Pedro Santos (72’), Mateo Flores (90+5’) and M. Rocha (90+6’); Estrela: Jorge Meireles (90’).

What it changes

Arouca have scored 47 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 19 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 34 games, ranked per game). Arouca have conceded 64 goals, the second-most of the 19 clubs.

Estrela have scored 38 goals, the 10th-most of the 19 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 34 games, ranked per game). Estrela have conceded 56 goals, the fifth-most of the 19 clubs.

Estrela have lost their last three matches in all competitions. Estrela have failed to score in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, M. Scholze (Estrela) 5.9, Tiago Esgaio (Arouca) 5.5 and A. Marcus (Estrela) 4.8 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Arouca or Estrela (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (3938 of 5059).

Next up

Arouca next host Rio Ave on 28 November 2026.

Estrela next host Benfica on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Arouca: Arouca v Rio Ave, Saturday 28 November — the preview. Next for Estrela: Estrela v Benfica, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Arouca 1–0 Estrela · Primeira Liga
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca
Referee: S. Guelho
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 5): Arouca 2 · draws 1 · Estrela 2 · 2.6 goals/game
Recent form: Arouca 2W 0D 3L · Estrela 1W 1D 3L

Arouca 1–0 Estrela (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 1

Goals

against 1.5 / 1.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

3.25 / 4.5

Corners

against 5 / 7 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

3.63 / 4.25

Shots on target

against 4.25 / 4.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

3 / 2.25

Cards

against 2.88 / 2.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

4.86 yellows

Referee · S. Guelho

25.14 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 12 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Arouca for / against	Line	Estrela for / against
Goals scored	1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.25 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.5 for · 7 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	10.25 for · 13.13 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.5 for · 14.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.63 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.25 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	13.13 for · 13.25 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	13.38 for · 16.25 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	3 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.25 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: S. Guelho — 4.86 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 25.14 fouls over 7 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Arouca

Arouca Goalkeeper

Arouca — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
I. de Arruabarrena	11	90990 min	292.6 /90	151.4 /90	00 /90
João Valido	9	90810 min	252.8 /90	242.7 /90	10.1 /90
Nico Mantl	8	90720 min	263.3 /90	182.3 /90	00 /90
J. Vinarčík	1	9090 min	11 /90	11 /90	00 /90

Arouca — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
I. de Arruabarrena n 8	90	3.1 6/5
João Valido n 8	90	3 8/5
Nico Mantl n 8	90	3.2 6/6

Arouca Defensive

Arouca — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
José Fontán	26	842185 min	311.3 /90	311.3 /90	80.3 /90	1044.3 /90	321.3 /90	90.4 /90
Tiago Esgaio	24	842016 min	241.1 /90	241.1 /90	150.7 /90	1094.9 /90	331.5 /90	90.4 /90
B. Popović	16	721147 min	90.7 /90	110.9 /90	131 /90	393.1 /90	120.9 /90	30.2 /90
A. Danté	14	59819 min	202.2 /90	50.5 /90	80.9 /90	394.3 /90	111.2 /90	00 /90
B. Kuipers	12	77928 min	30.3 /90	60.6 /90	30.3 /90	222.1 /90	70.7 /90	20.2 /90
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Arouca — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
N. Djouahra n 8	84.9	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	A. Marcus
T. Fukui n 8	88	0.5 4/0	1.5 6/3	—
A. Trezza n 8	75.6	1.8 7/2	0.9 5/1	—
José Fontán n 8	90	1.3 7/3	0.4 3/0	—
Lee Hyun-Ju n 8	83.8	2.4 8/5	3.5 7/6	I. Stoica
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Arouca — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
N. Djouahra n 8	84.9	1.3 4/2
T. Fukui n 8	88	1.4 5/3
A. Trezza n 8	75.6	1 3/2
José Fontán n 8	90	1.3 6/3
Lee Hyun-Ju n 8	83.8	0.4 3/0
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Arouca Attacking

Arouca — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Barbero	23	651501 min	70.4 /90	20.1 /90	321.9 /90	161 /90	120.7 /90	20.1 /90
D. Nandín	16	53851 min	10.1 /90	00 /90	121.3 /90	60.6 /90	91 /90	30.3 /90
Miguel Puche	15	42631 min	10.1 /90	10.1 /90	91.3 /90	50.7 /90	101.4 /90	81.1 /90
B. Mansilla	11	26285 min	00 /90	00 /90	51.6 /90	10.3 /90	51.6 /90	61.9 /90
N. Djouahra	29	812350 min	60.2 /90	30.1 /90	321.2 /90	180.7 /90	271 /90	301.1 /90
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Arouca — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
N. Djouahra n 8	84.9	0.9 6/1	0.4 3/0
T. Fukui n 8	88	0.6 4/1	0.3 1/1
A. Trezza n 8	75.6	1.3 5/3	0.7 3/2
José Fontán n 8	90	0.4 2/1	0.1 1/0
Lee Hyun-Ju n 8	83.8	0.7 4/1	0.4 3/0
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Arouca — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
N. Djouahra n 8	84.9	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
T. Fukui n 8	88	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Trezza n 8	75.6	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
José Fontán n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Lee Hyun-Ju n 8	83.8	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
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Estrela

Estrela Goalkeeper

Estrela — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Renan Ribeiro	29	902610 min	873 /90	481.7 /90	10 /90

Estrela — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Renan Ribeiro n 8	90	2.9 7/5

Estrela Defensive

Estrela — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Luan Patrick	27	872348 min	351.3 /90	311.2 /90	281.1 /90	793 /90	210.8 /90	20.1 /90
Bernardo Schappo	24	852029 min	421.9 /90	281.2 /90	210.9 /90	1566.9 /90	281.2 /90	60.3 /90
Jefferson Encada	19	671274 min	211.5 /90	141 /90	80.6 /90	574 /90	191.3 /90	40.3 /90
Otávio	16	661054 min	292.5 /90	312.6 /90	70.6 /90	736.2 /90	252.1 /90	40.3 /90
A. Chernev	12	83990 min	181.6 /90	30.3 /90	30.3 /90	474.3 /90	121.1 /90	30.3 /90
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Estrela — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Renan Ribeiro n 8	90	0 0/0	0.5 4/0	—
Luan Patrick n 8	84.3	0.8 4/2	0.3 2/0	—
A. Marcus n 8	88.3	0.8 4/2	2.2 6/5	N. Djouahra
I. Stoica n 8	55.9	0.8 4/0	3 7/5	Lee Hyun-Ju
Paulo Moreira n 8	90	1.9 8/6	1.6 5/4	—
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Estrela — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Luan Patrick n 8	84.3	1.9 8/5
A. Marcus n 8	88.3	1.4 7/3
I. Stoica n 8	55.9	1 4/1
Paulo Moreira n 8	90	2.3 7/5
Bernardo Schappo n 8	89.1	1.5 6/5
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Estrela Attacking

Estrela — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
I. Stoica	26	491268 min	20.1 /90	20.1 /90	201.4 /90	70.5 /90	161.1 /90	70.5 /90
Jovane Cabral	22	661442 min	50.3 /90	00 /90	382.4 /90	201.2 /90	150.9 /90	281.7 /90
Rodrigo Pinho	19	43823 min	40.4 /90	10.1 /90	242.6 /90	121.3 /90	70.8 /90	40.4 /90
Kikas	17	711213 min	60.4 /90	10.1 /90	251.9 /90	161.2 /90	90.7 /90	10.1 /90
Jorge Meireles	13	51664 min	00 /90	10.1 /90	40.5 /90	20.3 /90	91.2 /90	91.2 /90
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Estrela — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Renan Ribeiro n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Luan Patrick n 8	84.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Marcus n 8	88.3	1.3 6/3	0.6 5/0
I. Stoica n 8	55.9	2 6/2	0.6 2/1
Paulo Moreira n 8	90	1 5/3	0.4 3/0
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Estrela — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 12 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Renan Ribeiro n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Luan Patrick n 8	84.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Marcus n 8	88.3	0.3 2/0	0.4 2/1
I. Stoica n 8	55.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
Paulo Moreira n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Arouca		Estrela
50%	Possession	50%
1.01	Expected goals (xG)	1.25
11	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	3
5	Shots off target	8
3	Blocked shots	4
5	Shots inside the box	10
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
15	Fouls	11
5	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Saves	2
376	Passes	379
86%	Pass accuracy	83%

Arouca Player Stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
I. de Arruabarrena	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	8.3
Tiago Esgaio	90	1	2	1	0	0	0	7.7
Javi Sánchez	90	0	1	0	0	0	Y	6.9
José Fontán	90	0	0	0	1	0	0	7.2
B. Kuipers	90	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
T. Fukui	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
N. Djouahra	75	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.6
Barbero	75	0	2	1	1	2	0	6.2
Lee Hyun-Ju	69	0	0	0	2	0	0	6.7
E. van Ee	61	0	1	0	1	3	Y	6.9
Pablo Gozálbez	61	0	1	0	2	1	0	6.3
A. Trezza sub	29	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Pedro Santos sub	29	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.7
Mateo Flores sub	21	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.5
M. Rocha sub	15	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.7
Miguel Puche sub	15	0	0	0	2	1	0	6.6

Estrela Player Stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Renan Ribeiro	90	0	0	0	0	0	5.9
M. Scholze	90	0	0	2	6	0	6.9
S. Leković	90	1	0	0	1	0	7.2
Bruno Langa	90	0	0	1	0	0	6.9
Robinho	90	0	0	3	2	0	6.9
A. Marcus	90	0	0	3	1	0	7.7
Eddy Doue	80	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
Rodrigo Pinho	80	7	3	0	0	0	7.3
K. Höög Jansson	70	0	0	0	2	0	6.6
I. Stoica	70	3	0	0	1	0	6.7
Bernardo Schappo	23	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
Luan Patrick sub	67	0	0	1	0	0	6.7
Jorge Meireles sub	20	0	0	0	0	Y	6.5
Jovane Cabral sub	20	0	0	2	0	0	6.7
Paulo Moreira sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
S. van Hooijdonk sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	6.9

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Arouca v Estrela — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

AroucaLLWWL

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

EstrelaDLWLL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 5

Arouca 2 · 1 draw · Estrela 2 · 2.6 goals/game

2025-12-07 Estrela 3–1 Arouca
2025-04-19 Arouca 1–0 Estrela
2024-12-09 Estrela 2–1 Arouca
2024-05-05 Arouca 0–0 Estrela
2023-12-28 Estrela 1–4 Arouca

League standing · 2025/26

Arouca#8 pos42 pts34 pl-17 GD

Estrela#15 pos30 pts34 pl-18 GD

Goals per game

Arouca scored1.38

Estrela scored1.12

Arouca conceded1.88

Estrela conceded1.65

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Arouca v Estrela?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Arouca v Estrela was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Estrela?: In their last 5 meetings, Arouca won 2, Estrela won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.6 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Arouca and Estrela?: Recent form — Arouca 2W 0D 3L; Estrela 1W 1D 3L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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