NacionalEstrela

Nacional v Estrela result

Full-time · Nacional 2–3 Estrela

Primeira Liga · · Estádio da Madeira

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Nacional · Estrela

The model’s pre-match pick

Nacional 2–3 Estrela — Estrela won this Primeira Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Away shots total under 15.5.

Free pick
Away shots total under 15.5
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
Match report, in numbers

The result

Estrela won 3–2 at Estádio da Madeira in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 30 August. Estrela are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Nacional: Wesley Gasolina (3’, assisted by Williams Kokolo) and Pablo Ruan (66’, assisted by Liziero); Estrela: I. Stoica (45’ pen), A. Marcus (62’, assisted by Eddy Doue) and L. Antonetti (83’, assisted by Eddy Doue).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with L. Antonetti’s goal on 83 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Nacional 0.83, Estrela 2.10, from 10 shots to 14 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

C. Macedo showed three yellow cards — against 3.1 yellows a game across the last 12 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Nacional: Zé Vitor (45’) and Williams Kokolo (48’); Estrela: L. Antonetti (86’).

What it changes

Nacional move down from sixth to ninth (four league matches played).

Estrela move down from sixth to seventh (three league matches played).

With five goals it was the highest-scoring match of round 4, across nine matches.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Eddy Doue (Estrela) 9.2, A. Marcus (Estrela) 7.2 and Wesley Gasolina (Nacional) 7.0 led the match.

Next up

Nacional next host Academico Viseu on 7 November 2026.

Estrela next host Benfica on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Nacional: Maritimo v Nacional, Friday 27 November — the preview. Next for Estrela: Estrela v Benfica, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Nacional 2–3 Estrela · Primeira Liga
  • Venue: Estádio da Madeira · Funchal
  • Referee: C. Macedo
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 4): Nacional 1 · draws 1 · Estrela 2 · 1.75 goals/game
  • Recent form: Nacional 2W 1D 2L · Estrela 0W 4D 1L

Nacional 2–3 Estrela (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 8 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 1.13
Goals
against 0.88 / 1.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.13 / 2.5
Corners
against 5.5 / 5.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.63 / 3.5
Shots on target
against 4.25 / 4.25 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.38 / 3.25
Cards
against 2.25 / 2.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.08 yellows
Referee · C. Macedo
25 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 12 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 23 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 23 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameNacional for / againstLineEstrela for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 0.88 against n 8
2.5our book
1.13 for · 1.63 against n 8
Corners won
5.13 for · 5.5 against n 8
9.5standard
2.5 for · 5.88 against n 8
Shots
13.25 for · 15.63 against n 8
19.5standard
9.25 for · 13 against n 8
Shots on target
3.63 for · 4.25 against n 8
8.5standard
3.5 for · 4.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
13.25 for · 14.25 against n 8
21.5standard
13.5 for · 13.75 against n 8
Cards shown
2.38 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
3.25 for · 2.5 against n 8

Referee: C. Macedo — 3.08 yellow cards a game, 0.25 red cards, 25 fouls over 12 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Nacional

Nacional Goalkeeper

Nacional — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Renato Bellucci390270 min124 /9031 /9010.3 /90
Nacional — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Renato Bellucci n 390
43/3

Nacional Defensive

Nacional — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Léo Santos390270 min20.7 /9010.3 /9010.3 /90165.3 /9031 /9000 /90
Zé Vitor390270 min72.3 /9010.3 /9051.7 /90196.3 /9051.7 /9000 /90
Matheus Dias379236 min10.4 /9031.1 /9041.5 /90103.8 /9041.5 /9010.4 /90
Daniel De la Cruz22651 min11.8 /9011.8 /9023.5 /9035.3 /9011.8 /9000 /90
W. Kokolo13434 min12.6 /9000 /9000 /9037.9 /9000 /9000 /90
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Nacional — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Zé Vitor n 890
2.37/6
0.64/1
Luan Patrick
Léo Santos n 890
15/3
0.54/0
Luan Patrick
Renato Bellucci n 390
00/0
00/0
—
Pablo Ruan n 854.8
1.43/2
1.47/0
—
Daniel Júnior n 879.3
1.15/3
3.17/6
L. Antonetti
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Nacional — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Zé Vitor n 890
2.37/6
Léo Santos n 890
0.84/1
Pablo Ruan n 854.8
2.15/3
Daniel Júnior n 879.3
1.46/3
M. Jensen n 383.3
1.83/2
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Nacional Attacking

Nacional — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Pablo Ruan389268 min00 /9000 /9051.7 /9010.3 /9020.7 /9000 /90
Daniel Júnior384251 min00 /9010.4 /9010.4 /9000 /9062.2 /9041.4 /90
Miguel Baeza365194 min10.5 /9000 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9020.9 /9000 /90
M. Jensen383250 min00 /9000 /9010.4 /9000 /9010.4 /9031.1 /90
Liziero383248 min10.4 /9000 /9031.1 /9020.7 /9020.7 /9000 /90
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Nacional — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Léo Santos n 890
0.83/2
0.11/0
Zé Vitor n 890
0.64/1
0.32/0
Renato Bellucci n 390
00/0
00/0
Pablo Ruan n 854.8
1.24/2
0.42/0
Daniel Júnior n 879.3
16/1
0.64/0
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Nacional — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nacional before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Léo Santos n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
Zé Vitor n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Renato Bellucci n 390
00/0
00/0
Pablo Ruan n 854.8
00/0
00/0
Daniel Júnior n 879.3
00/0
0.32/0
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Estrela

Estrela Goalkeeper

Estrela — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Léo Linck290180 min84 /9021 /9000 /90

Estrela Defensive

Estrela — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Luan Patrick290180 min31.5 /9031.5 /9000 /9063 /9000 /9000 /90
Rafa Soares290179 min42 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9063 /9010.5 /9000 /90
M. Scholze250100 min65.4 /9010.9 /9000 /9087.2 /9000 /9000 /90
Jefferson Encada24080 min33.4 /9011.1 /9000 /9066.8 /9022.3 /9000 /90
Bernardo Schappo19090 min11 /9022 /9011 /9044 /9011 /9000 /90
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Estrela — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Eddy Doue n 875.9
1.35/3
1.66/4
—
Luan Patrick n 887.1
15/2
0.32/0
Léo Santos
A. Marcus n 888.6
15/2
2.38/5
—
L. Antonetti n 854.6
2.14/2
1.65/3
Daniel Júnior
I. Stoica n 873.9
0.95/1
1.76/4
—
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Estrela — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Eddy Doue n 875.9
2.45/3
Luan Patrick n 887.1
1.56/4
A. Marcus n 888.6
0.95/2
L. Antonetti n 854.6
1.24/2
I. Stoica n 873.9
0.84/1
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Estrela Attacking

Estrela — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Marcus290179 min10.5 /9000 /9042 /9031.5 /9031.5 /9042 /90
L. Antonetti289177 min21 /9000 /9063.1 /9042 /9010.5 /9010.5 /90
I. Stoica269138 min00 /9010.7 /9021.3 /9010.7 /9021.3 /9000 /90
Eddy Doue290180 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9010.5 /9031.5 /90
L. Zvonarek290180 min00 /9000 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9010.5 /90
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Estrela — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Eddy Doue n 875.9
0.62/2
0.31/1
Luan Patrick n 887.1
00/0
00/0
A. Marcus n 888.6
14/3
0.64/1
L. Antonetti n 854.6
1.95/1
1.24/1
I. Stoica n 873.9
1.88/3
0.53/0
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Estrela — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 23 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Eddy Doue n 875.9
0.11/0
00/0
Luan Patrick n 887.1
00/0
00/0
A. Marcus n 888.6
0.11/0
00/0
L. Antonetti n 854.6
0.42/0
00/0
I. Stoica n 873.9
0.21/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
NacionalEstrela
51%Possession49%
0.83Expected goals (xG)2.10
10Shots14
5Shots on target4
2Shots off target8
3Blocked shots2
4Shots inside the box9
4Corners3
1Offsides1
12Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Saves3
410Passes390
82%Pass accuracy82%

Nacional Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Renato Bellucci9000000006
Léo Santos9000001306.9
Matheus Dias9000000106.3
Zé Vitor90000011Y5.3
Liziero9001001207.3
Miguel Baeza9000100006.6
Wesley Gasolina7910110207.9
W. Kokolo78010012Y6.2
Daniel Júnior6900000307.3
Pablo Ruan6910221007.6
Filipe Soares4000101006.3
Matchoi Djaló sub5000110005.9
Stavros Gavriel sub2100110006.5
A. Obando sub2100001106.3
M. Jensen sub1200000006.2
Daniel De la Cruz sub1100000006.2

Estrela Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Léo Linck9000000006.7
M. Scholze9000001606.7
Luan Patrick9000100106.7
S. Leković9000100106.5
Rafa Soares9000101006.2
L. Zvonarek9000100206.5
A. Marcus9010222108.2
L. Antonetti90103112Y7.2
Eddy Doue8902002307.3
I. Stoica7210212107.3
Robinho6700001106.9
Joan Jordán sub2300100006.6
B. Souza sub1800001106.6
Bernardo Schappo sub10000000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Nacional v Estrela — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
NacionalLWDWL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1 conceded per game
EstrelaLDDDD
Last 5: 0W 4D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 4
Nacional 1 · 1 draw · Estrela 2 · 1.75 goals/game
  • 2026-04-04 Nacional 2–0 Estrela
  • 2025-11-09 Estrela 1–1 Nacional
  • 2025-04-06 Nacional 0–1 Estrela
  • 2024-11-10 Estrela 2–0 Nacional
League standing · 2026/27
Nacional#16 pos7 pts10 pl-9 GD
Estrela#12 pos10 pts10 pl-4 GD
Goals per game
Nacional scored1
Estrela scored1.5
Nacional conceded1.9
Estrela conceded1.9

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Nacional v Estrela?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Nacional v Estrela was Away shots total under 15.5.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Estrela?
In their last 4 meetings, Nacional won 1, Estrela won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 1.75 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Nacional and Estrela?
Recent form — Nacional 2W 1D 2L; Estrela 0W 4D 1L.

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