SC Braga v Estrela result

Full-time · SC Braga 2–2 Estrela

Primeira Liga · Sat, 16 May 2026 18:00 BST · Estádio Municipal de Braga

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: SC Braga · Estrela · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

SC Braga 2–2 Estrela — this Primeira Liga match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick

Home or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 78% of 5167 landed (95% range 76.8–79.1%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 2,002 of 2,678 times (74.8%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

The result

SC Braga and Estrela drew 2–2 at Estádio Municipal de Braga in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 16 May. SC Braga have scored in 14 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Estrela: S. Leković (5’; 90’, assisted by Jovane Cabral); SC Braga: Gabri Martínez (15’) and Pau Victor (90’ pen). S. Leković (90+7’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Pau Victor’s goal on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: SC Braga out-shot Estrela 14 to 6 and created the better chances, 2.41 xG to 0.73 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

Discipline

G. Correia showed six yellow cards and one red — against 5.5 yellows a game across the last 14 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — SC Braga: João Moutinho (37’); Estrela: Renan Ribeiro (55’), Luan Patrick (61’), S. Leković (87’), A. Marcus (87’) and S. Leković (90+7’).

What it changes

SC Braga stay fourth after this result (34 league matches played). SC Braga have scored seven goals, the sixth-most of the 18 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 5 games, ranked per game). SC Braga have conceded seven goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Estrela stay 15th after this result (34 league matches played). Estrela have scored five goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 4 games, ranked per game). Estrela have conceded seven goals, the third-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

SC Braga are winless in their last four matches in all competitions. Estrela are winless in their last seven matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Eddy Doue (Estrela) 7.6, Pau Victor (SC Braga) 7.1 and Gabri Martínez (SC Braga) 6.1 led the match.

Head-to-head

SC Braga are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Estrela, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, SC Braga or Estrela (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 78% of the time in the last 90 days (4028 of 5167).

Next up

SC Braga next travel to Rio Ave on 8 November 2026.

Estrela next host Benfica on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for SC Braga: Rio Ave v SC Braga, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Estrela: Estrela v Benfica, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: SC Braga 2–2 Estrela · Primeira Liga
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga · Braga
Referee: G. Correia
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 5): SC Braga 3 · draws 2 · Estrela 0 · 3.6 goals/game
Recent form: SC Braga 1W 2D 2L · Estrela 0W 1D 4L

SC Braga 2–2 Estrela (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 1

Goals

against 1.63 / 1.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.75

over 8 matches

3.75 / 3.75

Corners

against 4 / 6.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

3.63 / 3.25

Shots on target

against 4.25 / 3.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

3.25 / 2.75

Cards

against 2.75 / 3 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

5.5 yellows

Referee · G. Correia

26 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 14 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 11 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	SC Braga for / against	Line	Estrela for / against
Goals scored	1.75 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	2.75our book	1 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.75 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.75 for · 6.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	8.63 for · 12.63 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.75 for · 12.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.63 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.25 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.75 for · 11.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	14 for · 15.38 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	3.25 for · 2.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.75 for · 3 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: G. Correia — 5.5 yellow cards a game, 0.57 red cards, 26 fouls over 14 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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SC Braga

SC Braga Goalkeeper

SC Braga — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
L. Horníček	46	904140 min	1142.5 /90	461 /90	30.1 /90

SC Braga — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Braga before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
L. Horníček n 8	90	2.6 4/4

SC Braga Defensive

SC Braga — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
G. Lagerbielke	41	853501 min	451.2 /90	350.9 /90	140.4 /90	2305.9 /90	601.5 /90	100.3 /90
B. Arrey-Mbi	34	832837 min	511.6 /90	200.6 /90	170.5 /90	892.8 /90	220.7 /90	40.1 /90
Vitor Carvalho	21	721513 min	211.2 /90	100.6 /90	130.8 /90	774.6 /90	231.4 /90	70.4 /90
Paulo Oliveira	19	52986 min	80.7 /90	181.6 /90	60.5 /90	403.7 /90	121.1 /90	30.3 /90
S. Niakaté	18	831487 min	191.1 /90	100.6 /90	70.4 /90	965.8 /90	171 /90	40.2 /90
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SC Braga — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Braga before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
L. Horníček n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
Víctor Gómez n 8	90	0.9 4/2	1.3 6/3	Paulo Moreira
Pau Victor n 8	77.5	1 5/2	1.7 6/4	—
G. Lagerbielke n 8	90	0.8 3/3	1.1 5/2	Luan Patrick
João Moutinho n 8	79	1.7 7/4	0.9 4/2	Paulo Moreira
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SC Braga — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Braga before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Víctor Gómez n 8	90	1.1 5/2
Pau Victor n 8	77.5	1.2 6/2
G. Lagerbielke n 8	90	1.4 6/3
João Moutinho n 8	79	2.4 7/6
Ricardo Horta n 8	76.9	1 5/1
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SC Braga Attacking

SC Braga — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Pau Victor	42	692913 min	120.4 /90	50.2 /90	421.3 /90	270.8 /90	290.9 /90	491.5 /90
Ricardo Horta	39	793081 min	180.5 /90	80.2 /90	591.7 /90	381.1 /90	712.1 /90	110.3 /90
R. Zalazar	38	692625 min	180.6 /90	60.2 /90	642.2 /90	361.2 /90	481.6 /90	652.2 /90
Fran Navarro	33	471545 min	80.5 /90	10.1 /90	221.3 /90	140.8 /90	60.3 /90	60.3 /90
A. El Ouazzani	15	671005 min	20.2 /90	00 /90	211.9 /90	90.8 /90	100.9 /90	30.3 /90
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SC Braga — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Braga before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
L. Horníček n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Víctor Gómez n 8	90	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
Pau Victor n 8	77.5	1 7/0	0.9 6/0
G. Lagerbielke n 8	90	0.3 1/1	0.1 1/0
João Moutinho n 8	79	0.4 2/1	0.1 1/0
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SC Braga — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Braga before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
L. Horníček n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Víctor Gómez n 8	90	0 0/0	0.5 4/0
Pau Victor n 8	77.5	0.7 5/0	0 0/0
G. Lagerbielke n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
João Moutinho n 8	79	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Estrela

Estrela Goalkeeper

Estrela — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Renan Ribeiro	32	902880 min	953 /90	521.6 /90	20.1 /90

Estrela — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Renan Ribeiro n 8	90	2.6 7/3

Estrela Defensive

Estrela — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Luan Patrick	30	872595 min	411.4 /90	321.1 /90	301 /90	883.1 /90	230.8 /90	20.1 /90
Bernardo Schappo	25	822052 min	421.8 /90	281.2 /90	210.9 /90	1576.9 /90	281.2 /90	60.3 /90
Jefferson Encada	22	651427 min	211.3 /90	140.9 /90	90.6 /90	613.8 /90	241.5 /90	60.4 /90
Otávio	18	691234 min	312.3 /90	362.6 /90	90.7 /90	846.1 /90	272 /90	50.4 /90
A. Chernev	12	83990 min	181.6 /90	30.3 /90	30.3 /90	474.3 /90	121.1 /90	30.3 /90
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Estrela — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Renan Ribeiro n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0	—
Luan Patrick n 8	81.4	1 5/2	0.3 2/0	G. Lagerbielke
A. Marcus n 8	88.9	0.9 4/2	2.2 7/5	—
I. Stoica n 8	69.9	0.8 4/1	1.9 6/5	—
Paulo Moreira n 8	84.4	1.5 8/3	2 6/4	João Moutinho
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Estrela — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Luan Patrick n 8	81.4	1.8 7/4
A. Marcus n 8	88.9	1.1 6/3
I. Stoica n 8	69.9	0.6 4/0
Paulo Moreira n 8	84.4	2.3 7/4
Jovane Cabral n 8	50.1	1.6 4/2
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Estrela Attacking

Estrela — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
I. Stoica	30	531591 min	30.2 /90	20.1 /90	281.6 /90	90.5 /90	181 /90	80.5 /90
Jovane Cabral	26	641657 min	70.4 /90	00 /90	412.2 /90	221.2 /90	211.1 /90	291.6 /90
Rodrigo Pinho	23	481112 min	40.3 /90	10.1 /90	322.6 /90	151.2 /90	80.6 /90	60.5 /90
Kikas	17	711213 min	60.4 /90	10.1 /90	251.9 /90	161.2 /90	90.7 /90	10.1 /90
Jorge Meireles	14	49684 min	00 /90	10.1 /90	40.5 /90	20.3 /90	91.2 /90	91.2 /90
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Estrela — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Renan Ribeiro n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Luan Patrick n 8	81.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Marcus n 8	88.9	1.1 4/3	0.4 3/0
I. Stoica n 8	69.9	2.3 7/4	0.3 2/0
Paulo Moreira n 8	84.4	0.9 4/3	0.3 2/0
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Estrela — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 11 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Renan Ribeiro n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Luan Patrick n 8	81.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Marcus n 8	88.9	0.1 1/0	0.3 1/1
I. Stoica n 8	69.9	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
Paulo Moreira n 8	84.4	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
SC Braga		Estrela
74%	Possession	26%
2.41	Expected goals (xG)	0.73
14	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	4
6	Shots off target	2
4	Blocked shots	0
7	Shots inside the box	4
7	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
13	Fouls	9
1	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	1
2	Saves	2
692	Passes	246
91%	Pass accuracy	74%

SC Braga Player Stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
G. Lagerbielke	90	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.2
Gabriel Moscardo	90	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
Víctor Gómez	90	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
João Moutinho	90	0	1	1	1	2	Y	7.3
Pau Victor	90	1	2	1	0	2	0	7.2
Fran Navarro	90	0	1	1	2	0	0	6.9
Paulo Oliveira	85	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.6
L. Horníček	80	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Luisinho	80	0	1	0	1	1	0	6.7
Ricardo Horta	68	0	2	0	2	0	0	6.5
Gabri Martínez	45	1	1	1	0	3	0	6.9
Leonardo Lelo sub	45	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
Jean-Baptiste Gorby sub	22	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
Jonatás Noro sub	13	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
João Carvalho sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.3
A. Gil sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2

Estrela Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Renan Ribeiro	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.7
Luan Patrick	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	Y	5.3
S. Leković	90	2	0	2	2	0	0	RY	8
Otávio	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.3
Jefferson Encada	90	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	6.6
Bruno Langa	90	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.9
A. Marcus	89	0	0	1	1	0	2	Y	6.7
Paulo Moreira	77	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
Eddy Doue	68	0	0	0	0	1	6	0	7.3
S. van Hooijdonk	68	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
I. Stoica	68	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	6.9
Robinho sub	22	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
Jovane Cabral sub	22	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	7.2
L. Antonetti sub	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
K. Höög Jansson sub	13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Jorge Meireles sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind SC Braga v Estrela — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

SC BragaLWDLD

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

EstrelaLLLLD

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 5

SC Braga 3 · 2 draws · Estrela 0 · 3.6 goals/game

2026-01-03 Estrela 3–3 SC Braga
2025-01-19 Estrela 0–1 SC Braga
2024-08-11 SC Braga 1–1 Estrela
2024-03-02 SC Braga 3–0 Estrela
2023-09-28 Estrela 2–4 SC Braga

League standing · 2025/26

SC Braga#4 pos59 pts34 pl+28 GD

Estrela#15 pos30 pts34 pl-18 GD

Goals per game

SC Braga scored1.88

Estrela scored1.12

SC Braga conceded1.06

Estrela conceded1.65

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for SC Braga v Estrela?: TACTIX’s free model pick for SC Braga v Estrela was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Estrela?: In their last 5 meetings, SC Braga won 3, Estrela won 0 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.6 goals per game.
What is the recent form of SC Braga and Estrela?: Recent form — SC Braga 1W 2D 2L; Estrela 0W 1D 4L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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