Bahia v Sao Paulo result

Full-time · Bahia 3–2 Sao Paulo

Serie A – Brazil · · Arena Fonte Nova

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Bahia · Sao Paulo · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Bahia 3–2 Sao Paulo — Bahia won this Serie A – Brazil match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.29 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.4% of 4833 landed (95% range 76.2–78.5%); it had given them 74.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,741 of 2,349 times (74.1%), against an average rating of 73.3%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Bahia beat Sao Paulo 3–2 at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A – Brazil on Thursday 29 October.

The goals

It was 2–2 at half-time. The goals — Bahia: Rodrigo Nestor (6’, assisted by Jean Lucas), Erick Pulga (10’, assisted by Marcos Victor) and Marcos Victor (81’, assisted by Erick); Sao Paulo: Lucas Moura (43’, assisted by Jonathan Calleri) and D. Bobadilla (45’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Marcos Victor’s goal on 81 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Bahia 1.17, Sao Paulo 0.91, from 13 shots to 14 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

What it changes

Bahia move up from seventh to sixth (33 league matches played). Bahia have scored 45 goals, the seventh-most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Bahia have conceded 40 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Sao Paulo move down from ninth to 10th (33 league matches played). Sao Paulo have scored 37 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Sao Paulo have conceded 36 goals, the third-fewest of the 20 clubs.

With five goals it was the highest-scoring match of round 33 so far, across five matches.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Marcos Victor (Bahia) 10.1, D. Bobadilla (Sao Paulo) 6.7 and Lucas Moura (Sao Paulo) 6.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Bahia or Sao Paulo (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.4% of the time in the last 90 days (3740 of 4833).

Next up

Bahia next travel to Cruzeiro on 6 November 2026.

Sao Paulo next host Corinthians on 5 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Bahia: Cruzeiro v Bahia, Friday 6 November — the preview. Next for Sao Paulo: Sao Paulo v Corinthians, Thursday 5 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Bahia 3–2 Sao Paulo · Serie A – Brazil
  • Venue: Arena Fonte Nova · Salvador, Bahia
  • Referee: Anderson Daronco
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Bahia 1 · draws 1 · Sao Paulo 4 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Bahia 1W 1D 3L · Sao Paulo 2W 1D 2L

Bahia 3–2 Sao Paulo (Serie A – Brazil): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 29 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 0.88
Goals
against 1.5 / 1.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
5.25 / 6.38
Corners
against 7.75 / 4.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.88 / 3.75
Shots on target
against 7.63 / 3.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.5 / 2
Cards
against 2.13 / 2.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBahia for / againstLineSao Paulo for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8
2.75our book
0.88 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
5.25 for · 7.75 against n 8
9.5standard
6.38 for · 4.38 against n 8
Shots
12.75 for · 17.5 against n 8
19.5standard
14 for · 14.13 against n 8
Shots on target
3.88 for · 7.63 against n 8
8.5standard
3.75 for · 3.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.75 for · 11.88 against n 8
21.5standard
13.5 for · 14.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2.5 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
2 for · 2.63 against n 8

Bahia

Bahia Goalkeeper

Bahia — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Ronaldo23892058 min924 /90200.9 /9000 /90
Leo Vieira1187954 min413.9 /90171.6 /9000 /90
Joao Paulo25099 min65.5 /9065.5 /9000 /90
Bahia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bahia before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Ronaldo n 890
6.17/5
Leo Vieira n 885.5
3.67/5

Bahia Defensive

Bahia — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Luciano Juba31852636 min421.4 /90301 /9070.2 /90943.2 /90180.6 /9050.2 /90
David Duarte26912364 min271 /90311.2 /90220.8 /901355.1 /90200.8 /9040.2 /90
Santiago Ramos Mingo25922301 min120.5 /90321.3 /90281.1 /90783.1 /90180.7 /9030.1 /90
Román Gómez16751194 min282.1 /90262 /9060.5 /90806 /90231.7 /9040.3 /90
Gilberto866526 min81.4 /9050.9 /9010.2 /90142.4 /9040.7 /9010.2 /90
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Bahia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bahia before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Erick Pulga n 874.6
1.16/1
1.46/3
Luciano
Nicolás Acevedo n 873.1
2.27/4
1.86/4
—
Luciano Juba n 890
0.11/0
0.84/1
—
Jean Lucas n 860.3
2.25/4
1.15/1
—
Cristian Olivera n 879.4
0.94/2
1.37/1
—
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Bahia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bahia before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Erick Pulga n 874.6
1.25/2
Nicolás Acevedo n 873.1
2.56/5
Luciano Juba n 890
1.56/3
Jean Lucas n 860.3
0.93/2
Cristian Olivera n 879.4
1.86/3
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Bahia Attacking

Bahia — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Erick Pulga33702326 min30.1 /9020.1 /90361.4 /90160.6 /90251 /90461.8 /90
Cristian Olivera27671808 min10 /9020.1 /90291.4 /90201 /90311.5 /90251.2 /90
Ademir27411100 min00 /9010.1 /90171.4 /9080.7 /9090.7 /90181.5 /90
Willian Jose20601207 min40.3 /9010.1 /90181.3 /9090.7 /90211.6 /9050.4 /90
Everaldo1747795 min40.5 /9000 /90171.9 /9080.9 /9070.8 /9030.3 /90
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Bahia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bahia before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Erick Pulga n 874.6
2.17/5
0.94/1
Nicolás Acevedo n 873.1
0.21/0
00/0
Luciano Juba n 890
0.95/2
0.64/1
Jean Lucas n 860.3
1.35/2
0.42/0
Cristian Olivera n 879.4
1.15/2
0.74/1
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Bahia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bahia before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Erick Pulga n 874.6
0.52/1
00/0
Nicolás Acevedo n 873.1
00/0
0.21/0
Luciano Juba n 890
0.54/0
00/0
Jean Lucas n 860.3
0.42/0
0.21/0
Cristian Olivera n 879.4
00/0
0.11/0
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Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo Goalkeeper

Sao Paulo — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Rafael38923479 min872.3 /90330.9 /9000 /90
Carlos Coronel590450 min204 /9040.8 /9000 /90
Sao Paulo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sao Paulo before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Rafael n 890.9
1.54/1

Sao Paulo Defensive

Sao Paulo — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Lucas Ramon28772144 min421.8 /90301.3 /9000 /901275.3 /90241 /9010 /90
Sabino27822227 min471.9 /90331.3 /90200.8 /901275.1 /90311.3 /9020.1 /90
Wendell23681561 min321.8 /90160.9 /9020.1 /90613.5 /90432.5 /9050.3 /90
R. Arboleda19871644 min372 /90160.9 /9050.3 /90925 /90100.5 /9010.1 /90
Alan Javier Franco19851618 min160.9 /90140.8 /90170.9 /90623.4 /90140.8 /9030.2 /90
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Sao Paulo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sao Paulo before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Rafael n 890.9
00/0
0.22/0
—
Danielzinho n 850.6
1.84/3
0.73/0
—
Jonathan Calleri n 870.8
14/1
2.17/4
—
Luciano n 874.8
0.84/1
2.47/5
Erick Pulga
Artur n 877.8
0.31/1
1.77/4
—
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Sao Paulo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sao Paulo before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Danielzinho n 850.6
2.44/3
Jonathan Calleri n 870.8
0.83/1
Luciano n 874.8
0.52/1
Artur n 877.8
1.25/3
Marcos Antônio n 872.5
1.45/2
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Sao Paulo Attacking

Sao Paulo — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Jonathan Calleri33822701 min110.4 /9030.1 /90521.7 /90220.7 /90301 /90130.4 /90
Luciano32752387 min130.5 /9020.1 /90572.1 /90240.9 /90321.2 /9070.3 /90
Ferreirinha26451164 min40.3 /9010.1 /90251.9 /90131 /90221.7 /90372.9 /90
Andre Silva1747804 min00 /9010.1 /9091 /9050.6 /9091 /9050.6 /90
G. Tapia1050501 min00 /9000 /90112 /9030.5 /9020.4 /9040.7 /90
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Sao Paulo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sao Paulo before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Rafael n 890.9
00/0
00/0
Danielzinho n 850.6
0.21/0
0.21/0
Jonathan Calleri n 870.8
2.16/4
0.84/1
Luciano n 874.8
2.98/6
1.16/1
Artur n 877.8
2.56/6
1.24/3
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Sao Paulo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sao Paulo before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Rafael n 890.9
00/0
00/0
Danielzinho n 850.6
00/0
0.21/0
Jonathan Calleri n 870.8
0.63/1
00/0
Luciano n 874.8
0.53/0
00/0
Artur n 877.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
BahiaSao Paulo
47%Possession53%
1.17Expected goals (xG)0.91
13Shots14
4Shots on target6
5Shots off target4
4Blocked shots4
10Shots inside the box8
7Corners11
0Offsides3
12Fouls12
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
4Saves1
425Passes481

Bahia Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Ronaldo9000000007
Marcos Victor90111124Y7.4
David Duarte9000100106.6
Marco Moreno9000000006.5
Luciano Juba9000000106.2
Alejo Véliz9000000006.3
Cristian Olivera8800104106.2
Rodrigo Nestor7410220107.3
Jean Lucas5601002007.2
Nicolás Acevedo5600200206.4
Erick Pulga5610310007.7
Ademir3400100106.4
Erick3401201306.5
Everton Ribeiro3400000306.7
Caio Alexandre1600000106.1
Michel Araújo200000206.1

Sao Paulo Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Rafael9000000005.7
Newton9000300306
R. Arboleda9000000106.3
Pedro Lima9000213307.2
Lucas Moura90102213Y6.9
Jonathan Calleri9001001106.6
Sabino82000003Y5.9
D. Bobadilla8210221207.3
Pablo Maia8200001206.4
Wendell8200101306.3
Luciano7100201106.4
Djhordney Ferreira1900110006.1
Danielzinho800100005.8
Victor Sá800001106.5
Cauly800000005.7
G. Santana8000000Y6.1

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Bahia v Sao Paulo — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BahiaLLWLD
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Sao PauloLLWWD
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Bahia 1 · 1 draw · Sao Paulo 4 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2026-05-03 Sao Paulo 2–2 Bahia
  • 2025-10-26 Sao Paulo 2–0 Bahia
  • 2025-05-31 Bahia 2–1 Sao Paulo
  • 2024-11-06 Bahia 0–3 Sao Paulo
  • 2024-06-30 Sao Paulo 3–1 Bahia
  • 2023-11-29 Bahia 0–1 Sao Paulo
League standing · 2026
Bahia#7 pos50 pts32 pl+5 GD
Sao Paulo#9 pos43 pts32 pl+1 GD
Goals per game
Bahia scored1.41
Sao Paulo scored1.16
Bahia conceded1.25
Sao Paulo conceded1.13

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Bahia v Sao Paulo?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Bahia v Sao Paulo was Home or Away (best price 1.29 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Sao Paulo?
In their last 6 meetings, Bahia won 1, Sao Paulo won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Bahia and Sao Paulo?
Recent form — Bahia 1W 1D 3L; Sao Paulo 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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