AC MilanAtalanta

AC Milan v Atalanta result

Full-time · AC Milan 2–3 Atalanta

Serie A · · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: AC Milan · Atalanta · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

AC Milan 2–3 Atalanta — Atalanta won this Serie A match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5059 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,935 of 2,588 times (74.8%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said AC Milan: 2.28 to 1.61 in expected goals, 0.76 of it from a penalty, level on open-play xG, from 20 shots to 9 (per-shot expected goals for this match). The result went the other way.

The result

Atalanta won 3–2 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A on Sunday 10 May.

The goals

Atalanta led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Atalanta: Éderson (7’), Davide Zappacosta (29’, assisted by Nikola Krstović) and Giacomo Raspadori (51’, assisted by Éderson); AC Milan: Strahinja Pavlović (88’, assisted by Samuele Ricci) and Christopher Nkunku (90’ pen).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Éderson’s goal on 7 minutes.

Discipline

L. Zufferli showed six yellow cards — against 3.0 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — AC Milan: Rafael Leão (34’), P. Estupiñán (89’) and Alexis Saelemaekers (90’); Atalanta: I. Hien (70’), Nikola Krstović (90+5’) and Raoul Bellanova (90+6’).

What it changes

AC Milan move down from third to fifth (36 league matches played).

Atalanta stay seventh after this result (36 league matches played).

AC Milan are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Éderson (Atalanta) 9.3, Christopher Nkunku (AC Milan) 8.4 and Strahinja Pavlović (AC Milan) 7.8 led the match.

Head-to-head

Atalanta are unbeaten in the last six meetings with AC Milan, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, AC Milan or Atalanta (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (3938 of 5059).

Next up

AC Milan next travel to Genoa on 8 November 2026.

Atalanta next travel to Monza on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for AC Milan: Genoa v AC Milan, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Atalanta: Monza v Atalanta, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: AC Milan 2–3 Atalanta · Serie A
  • Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza · Milan
  • Referee: L. Zufferli
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): AC Milan 0 · draws 2 · Atalanta 4 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: AC Milan 1W 1D 3L · Atalanta 0W 3D 2L

AC Milan 2–3 Atalanta (Serie A): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.63 / 1.13
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.25 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.25 / 5.86
Corners
against 3.88 / 3.86 · 0 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
2.5 / 5
Shots on target
against 3.88 / 4 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.75 / 1.14
Cards
against 2.38 / 1.14 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
3 yellows
Referee · L. Zufferli
22.4 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 10 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 3 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 3 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAC Milan for / againstLineAtalanta for / against
Goals scored
0.63 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5our book
1.13 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
3.25 for · 3.88 against n 8
9.5standard
5.86 for · 3.86 against n 7
Shots
11.13 for · 11.88 against n 8
19.5standard
14.86 for · 12.86 against n 7
Shots on target
2.5 for · 3.88 against n 8
8.5standard
5 for · 4 against n 7
Fouls committed
10.63 for · 10.88 against n 8
21.5standard
11.43 for · 9.57 against n 7
Cards shown
1.75 for · 2.38 against n 8
3.5standard
1.14 for · 1.14 against n 7

Referee: L. Zufferli — 3 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 22.4 fouls over 10 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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AC Milan

AC Milan Goalkeeper

AC Milan — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Maignan38893391 min1042.8 /90320.8 /9020.1 /90
P. Terracciano262124 min42.9 /9000 /9000 /90
AC Milan — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Maignan n 890
38/3

AC Milan Defensive

AC Milan — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
S. Pavlović35842954 min501.5 /90260.8 /90140.4 /901705.2 /90280.9 /9050.2 /90
F. Tomori34822790 min712.3 /90321 /90250.8 /901023.3 /90391.3 /9080.3 /90
M. Gabbia27872345 min170.7 /90130.5 /90180.7 /90773 /90210.8 /9030.1 /90
K. De Winter24821963 min291.3 /90120.6 /90120.6 /90803.7 /90311.4 /9020.1 /90
Zachary Athekame1543646 min111.5 /9020.3 /9000 /90304.2 /90111.5 /9030.4 /90
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AC Milan — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
00/0
—
A. Saelemaekers n 873.9
1.25/2
1.55/4
M. de Roon
S. Pavlović n 890
15/3
16/1
—
L. Modrić n 886.5
0.95/2
17/1
—
F. Tomori n 869.5
1.65/4
0.31/1
—
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AC Milan — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Saelemaekers n 873.9
2.68/6
S. Pavlović n 890
2.17/4
L. Modrić n 886.5
16/2
F. Tomori n 869.5
1.96/5
Y. Fofana n 864
1.27/0
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AC Milan Attacking

AC Milan — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Rafael Leão28671878 min100.5 /9030.1 /90432.1 /90241.2 /90211 /90251.2 /90
C. Pulišić27631693 min90.5 /9030.2 /90382 /90231.2 /90432.3 /90281.5 /90
C. Nkunku23551269 min60.4 /9020.1 /90221.6 /90110.8 /90151.1 /9050.4 /90
N. Füllkrug1733564 min10.2 /9000 /90111.8 /9050.8 /9061 /9020.3 /90
S. Giménez1461858 min10.1 /9010.1 /90232.4 /9090.9 /9050.5 /9030.3 /90
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AC Milan — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Saelemaekers n 873.9
0.96/0
0.53/0
S. Pavlović n 890
0.63/2
0.11/0
L. Modrić n 886.5
0.74/1
0.11/0
F. Tomori n 869.5
00/0
00/0
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AC Milan — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Saelemaekers n 873.9
00/0
00/0
S. Pavlović n 890
0.11/0
00/0
L. Modrić n 886.5
00/0
00/0
F. Tomori n 869.5
00/0
00/0
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Atalanta

Atalanta Goalkeeper

Atalanta — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Carnesecchi47904230 min1403 /90521.1 /9030.1 /90
M. Sportiello390270 min82.7 /9051.7 /9000 /90
Atalanta — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Carnesecchi n 890
2.95/3

Atalanta Defensive

Atalanta — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
B. Djimsiti42773249 min571.6 /90551.5 /90270.7 /901835.1 /90210.6 /9060.2 /90
I. Hien36742661 min592 /90401.4 /90230.8 /901384.7 /90431.5 /9050.2 /90
O. Kossounou27671802 min311.5 /90221.1 /90130.6 /90623.1 /90241.2 /9030.1 /90
G. Scalvini25761912 min482.3 /90432 /90130.6 /901205.6 /90331.6 /9020.1 /90
H. Ahanor25651615 min422.3 /90241.3 /90120.7 /901257 /90261.4 /9020.1 /90
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Atalanta — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Carnesecchi n 890
00/0
00/0
—
M. de Roon n 871.4
0.85/0
0.21/0
A. Saelemaekers
D. Zappacosta n 879.3
15/2
0.32/0
—
N. Krstović n 864.3
2.56/4
0.72/1
—
B. Djimsiti n 877.8
0.74/1
0.43/0
—
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Atalanta — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. de Roon n 871.4
2.48/4
D. Zappacosta n 879.3
0.96/0
N. Krstović n 864.3
0.94/1
B. Djimsiti n 877.8
2.77/5
Éderson n 865.6
2.16/4
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Atalanta Attacking

Atalanta — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
N. Krstović43532261 min110.4 /9050.2 /90873.5 /90421.7 /90251 /90200.8 /90
C. De Ketelaere36752716 min50.2 /9070.2 /90381.3 /90210.7 /90832.8 /90592 /90
Gianluca Scamacca34581967 min140.6 /9020.1 /90663 /90311.4 /90251.1 /90140.6 /90
K. Sulemana25461146 min30.2 /9010.1 /90221.7 /90110.9 /90100.8 /90262 /90
L. Samardžić24521240 min50.4 /9020.1 /90241.7 /90120.9 /90332.4 /90201.5 /90
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Atalanta — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Carnesecchi n 890
00/0
00/0
M. de Roon n 871.4
00/0
00/0
D. Zappacosta n 879.3
13/2
0.32/0
N. Krstović n 864.3
3.58/5
1.66/2
B. Djimsiti n 877.8
0.64/0
0.11/0
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Atalanta — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Carnesecchi n 890
00/0
00/0
M. de Roon n 871.4
00/0
0.21/0
D. Zappacosta n 879.3
0.11/0
00/0
N. Krstović n 864.3
0.53/0
00/0
B. Djimsiti n 877.8
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
AC MilanAtalanta
58%Possession42%
2.21Expected goals (xG)1.38
20Shots9
9Shots on target5
8Shots off target2
3Blocked shots2
9Shots inside the box7
2Corners2
2Offsides2
8Fouls17
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
2Saves8
542Passes408
88%Pass accuracy80%

AC Milan Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Maignan9000000006.2
M. Gabbia9000100306.7
S. Pavlović9010212207.3
A. Saelemaekers90001122Y6.9
S. Ricci9001002207.6
A. Rabiot9000301106.9
D. Bartesaghi8000002006.2
K. De Winter5800001106
S. Giménez5800220106.9
Rafael Leão58003101Y6.6
R. Loftus-Cheek4500001006.5
C. Nkunku sub4510431008.5
Zachary Athekame sub3200110006.9
Y. Fofana sub3200003006.7
N. Füllkrug sub3200002006.6
P. Estupiñán sub10000000Y7

Atalanta Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Carnesecchi9000000008.7
I. Hien90000004Y6.9
S. Kolašinac9000000106
M. de Roon9000000306.2
Éderson9011112208.2
N. Zalewski9000111106.7
G. Raspadori9010212207.3
N. Krstović90012111Y6
C. De Ketelaere6300001106.7
D. Zappacosta5510110007.2
G. Scalvini4800000106.9
R. Bellanova sub35000010Y6.2
H. Ahanor sub2700000006.2
M. Pašalić sub2700000006.6
O. Kossounou sub1500000006.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind AC Milan v Atalanta — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AC MilanLLWDL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
AtalantaLDDLD
Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 0.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
AC Milan 0 · 2 draws · Atalanta 4 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2025-10-28 Atalanta 1–1 AC Milan
  • 2025-04-20 AC Milan 0–1 Atalanta
  • 2024-12-06 Atalanta 2–1 AC Milan
  • 2024-02-25 AC Milan 1–1 Atalanta
  • 2024-01-10 AC Milan 1–2 Atalanta
  • 2023-12-09 Atalanta 3–2 AC Milan
League standing · 2025/26
AC Milan#5 pos70 pts38 pl+18 GD
Atalanta#7 pos59 pts38 pl+15 GD
Goals per game
AC Milan scored1.39
Atalanta scored1.34
AC Milan conceded0.92
Atalanta conceded0.95

Shot Map and Expected Goals

AC Milan 2.28 xG from 20 shots, Atalanta 1.61 from 9. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Nikola Krstovic 68' · 0.58 xGChristopher Nkunku 63' · 0.37 xGRafael Leão 35' · 0.31 xGSantiago Giménez 33' · 0.13 xGMatteo Gabbia 96' · 0.11 xGNikola Krstovic 63' · 0.10 xGNicola Zalewski 16' · 0.09 xGChristopher Nkunku 74' · 0.06 xGGiacomo Raspadori 6' · 0.06 xGChristopher Nkunku 60' · 0.05 xGStrahinja Pavlovic 84' · 0.04 xGAdrien Rabiot 79' · 0.03 xGChristopher Nkunku 66' · 0.03 xGNikola Krstovic 14' · 0.02 xGAlexis Saelemaekers 43' · 0.02 xGAdrien Rabiot 85' · 0.02 xGAdrien Rabiot 3' · 0.02 xGRafael Leão 55' · 0.02 xGAdrien Rabiot 41' · 0.01 xGYoussouf Fofana 67' · 0.01 xGGiacomo Raspadori 91' · 0.01 xGZachary Athekame 84' · 0.01 xGSantiago Giménez 0' · 0.01 xGRafael Leão 45' · 0.01 xGChristopher Nkunku 93' · 0.76 xG · goalDavide Zappacosta 28' · 0.58 xG · goalStrahinja Pavlovic 87' · 0.27 xG · goalGiacomo Raspadori 50' · 0.09 xG · goalÉderson 6' · 0.07 xG · goal
AC Milan (attacking right)Atalanta (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
AC Milan2022.28
Atalanta931.61

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: AC Milan 0.51, Atalanta 0.83. At full time, AC Milan led on xG, 2.28 to 1.61, 0.76 of it from a penalty, level on open-play xG. The widest gap was 0.80 xG to Atalanta, in the 28th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.31.100′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Atalanta 6 minGoal - Atalanta 28 minGoal - Atalanta 50 minGoal - AC Milan 87 minGoal - AC Milan 93 min
AC Milan 2.28 xGAtalanta 1.61 xGdots = goals · 29 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for AC Milan v Atalanta?
TACTIX’s free model pick for AC Milan v Atalanta was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Atalanta?
In their last 6 meetings, AC Milan won 0, Atalanta won 4 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of AC Milan and Atalanta?
Recent form — AC Milan 1W 1D 3L; Atalanta 0W 3D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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