Padova v Ascoli result

Full-time · Padova 1–0 Ascoli

Serie B – Italy · Sat, 12 Sep 2026 14:00 BST · Stadio Euganeo

Updated 26 Sep 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Padova · Ascoli

The model’s pre-match pick

Padova 1–0 Ascoli — Padova won this Serie B – Italy match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.83 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 55.2% of 145 landed (95% range 47–63%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Padova beat Ascoli 1–0 at Stadio Euganeo in Serie B – Italy on Saturday 12 September. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Ascoli out-shot Padova 20 to 11 and created the better chances, 2.04 xG to 0.98 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Context.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Padova: Nicolas Galazzi (63’, assisted by M. Cocchi).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Nicolas Galazzi’s goal on 63 minutes.

Discipline

Giuseppe Collu, Italy showed six yellow cards — against 4.8 yellows a game across the last 5 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Padova: E. Zuelli (53’), Alessandro Dellavalle (59’), P. Fusi (77’) and A. Capelli (90’); Ascoli: G. De Pieri (59’) and N. Rizzo (62’).

What it changes

Padova have scored 10 goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games). Padova have conceded 11 goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Ascoli have scored 16 goals, the fifth-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games). Ascoli have conceded six goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, S. Damiani (Ascoli) 7.2, A. Guiébré (Ascoli) 6.6 and Nicolas Galazzi (Padova) 5.5 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Padova next host Empoli on 7 November 2026.

Ascoli next host Palermo on 6 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Padova: Padova v Empoli, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Ascoli: Ascoli v Palermo, Friday 6 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Padova 1–0 Ascoli · Serie B – Italy
Venue: Stadio Euganeo · Padova
Referee: Giuseppe Collu, Italy
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 2): Padova 1 · draws 0 · Ascoli 1 · 4 goals/game
Recent form: Padova 2W 1D 2L · Ascoli 3W 1D 1L

Padova 1–0 Ascoli (Serie B – Italy): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 26 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 1.5

Goals

against 1.13 / 1.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.13 / 7

Corners

against 4.63 / 5.33 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 6 matches

3.13 / 4

Shots on target

against 5.5 / 4.67 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 6 matches

2 / 2.5

Cards

against 1.63 / 3.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 6 matches

4.8 yellows

Referee · Giuseppe Collu, Italy

32.6 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 5 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 6 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Padova for / against	Line	Ascoli for / against
Goals scored	1.13 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	1.5 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.13 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	7 for · 5.33 against n 6 Last 5
Shots	10.25 for · 15.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.67 for · 14.33 against n 6 Last 5
Shots on target	3.13 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4 for · 4.67 against n 6 Last 5
Fouls committed	13.88 for · 13.5 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.67 for · 13.17 against n 6 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.5 for · 3.5 against n 6 Last 5

Referee: Giuseppe Collu, Italy — 4.8 yellow cards a game, 0.2 red cards, 32.6 fouls over 5 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Padova

Padova Goalkeeper

Padova — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
A. Sorrentino	4	90360 min	133.3 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90

Padova — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Padova before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
A. Sorrentino n 8	90	3.4 6/5

Padova Defensive

Padova — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Alessandro Dellavalle	4	90360 min	82 /90	92.3 /90	20.5 /90	143.5 /90	30.8 /90	10.3 /90
C. Pastina	4	79315 min	123.4 /90	41.1 /90	20.6 /90	226.3 /90	61.7 /90	10.3 /90
M. Lovato	3	69207 min	10.4 /90	41.7 /90	20.9 /90	83.5 /90	10.4 /90	00 /90
F. Sgarbi	2	79157 min	21.1 /90	10.6 /90	10.6 /90	42.3 /90	21.1 /90	00 /90
E. Zuelli	4	90360 min	51.3 /90	20.5 /90	10.3 /90	92.3 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90
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Padova — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Padova before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
L. Carissoni n 4	90	1 2/1	0.5 1/1	—
E. Zuelli n 4	90	0.8 2/1	0.3 1/0	—
Alessandro Dellavalle n 4	90	0.8 2/1	1 3/1	G. Corradini
A. Sorrentino n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
C. Pastina n 8	84.4	0.9 5/1	0.4 2/1	N. Rizzo
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Padova — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Padova before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Alessandro Dellavalle n 4	90	2 4/3
L. Carissoni n 4	90	1.3 4/1
E. Zuelli n 4	90	1.3 4/1
C. Pastina n 8	84.4	3.5 8/7
M. Pompetti n 4	76.3	1.5 3/2
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Padova Attacking

Padova — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
G. Caprari	4	64256 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.4 /90	00 /90	41.4 /90	00 /90
K. Lasagna	4	39154 min	00 /90	00 /90	31.8 /90	00 /90	21.2 /90	00 /90
M. Bortolussi	3	37110 min	00 /90	00 /90	32.5 /90	00 /90	10.8 /90	10.8 /90
L. Moro	2	76152 min	00 /90	00 /90	42.4 /90	10.6 /90	00 /90	10.6 /90
A. Seghetti	1	2020 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	14.5 /90
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Padova — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Padova before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
L. Carissoni n 4	90	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0
E. Zuelli n 4	90	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
Alessandro Dellavalle n 4	90	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
A. Sorrentino n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Pastina n 8	84.4	0.8 5/1	0.1 1/0
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Padova — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Padova before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
L. Carissoni n 4	90	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
A. Sorrentino n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
E. Zuelli n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Alessandro Dellavalle n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Pastina n 8	84.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Ascoli

Ascoli Goalkeeper

Ascoli — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
S. Vitale	4	90360 min	143.5 /90	61.5 /90	00 /90

Ascoli — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Ascoli before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
S. Vitale n 4	90	3.5 3/3

Ascoli Defensive

Ascoli — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
N. Rizzo	4	90360 min	102.5 /90	51.3 /90	61.5 /90	194.8 /90	51.3 /90	10.3 /90
T. Milanese	4	78311 min	41.2 /90	30.9 /90	00 /90	82.3 /90	20.6 /90	00 /90
A. Guiébré	4	90360 min	61.5 /90	51.3 /90	10.3 /90	174.3 /90	51.3 /90	20.5 /90
G. Corradini	4	80320 min	51.4 /90	20.6 /90	10.3 /90	133.7 /90	30.8 /90	20.6 /90
S. Damiani	4	78312 min	61.7 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	113.2 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
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Ascoli — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Ascoli before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
A. Guiébré n 4	90	1.3 3/2	0.8 3/0	—
N. Rizzo n 4	90	1.3 2/1	0.8 2/1	C. Pastina
S. Vitale n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
S. D'Uffizi n 8	55	1.2 3/2	2.9 5/4	—
G. Corradini n 4	80	0.8 3/0	0.6 2/0	Alessandro Dellavalle
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Ascoli — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Ascoli before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
N. Rizzo n 4	90	2.5 4/4
A. Guiébré n 4	90	1.5 3/2
S. D'Uffizi n 8	55	0.4 2/0
G. Corradini n 4	80	1.4 3/1
S. Damiani n 4	78	1.7 3/1
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Ascoli Attacking

Ascoli — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
S. D'Uffizi	4	82327 min	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	61.7 /90	30.8 /90	82.2 /90	51.4 /90
M. Curado	4	70278 min	00 /90	10.3 /90	134.2 /90	20.6 /90	31 /90	00 /90
M. A. Chakir	3	62185 min	00 /90	10.5 /90	115.4 /90	10.5 /90	21 /90	00 /90
G. Gori	3	44132 min	10.7 /90	00 /90	32 /90	10.7 /90	10.7 /90	10.7 /90
D. Bolsius	2	2549 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	23.7 /90
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Ascoli — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Ascoli before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
A. Guiébré n 4	90	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0
N. Rizzo n 4	90	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0
S. Vitale n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. D'Uffizi n 8	55	1.4 5/2	0.6 3/0
G. Corradini n 4	80	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
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Ascoli — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Ascoli before kick-off, to 6 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
A. Guiébré n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
N. Rizzo n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Vitale n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. D'Uffizi n 8	55	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
G. Corradini n 4	80	0 0/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Padova		Ascoli
35%	Possession	65%
0.98	Expected goals (xG)	2.04
11	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	5
5	Shots off target	12
2	Blocked shots	3
5	Shots inside the box	13
2	Corners	8
3	Offsides	2
22	Fouls	12
4	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
5	Saves	3
238	Passes	442
76%	Pass accuracy	88%

Padova Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
A. Sorrentino	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8.5
Alessandro Dellavalle	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	Y	7.2
M. Lovato	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
L. Carissoni	90	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.9
E. Zuelli	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	Y	6.9
L. Moro	90	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	6.3
K. Varas	72	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	6.9
K. Lasagna	60	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	6.3
C. Pastina	56	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	7.2
M. Pompetti	45	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.9
F. Di Mariano	45	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.9
M. Cocchi sub	45	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	7.5
N. Galazzi sub	45	1	0	2	2	0	1	0	7.7
A. Capelli sub	34	0	0	0	0	0	2	Y	6.9
G. Caprari sub	30	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	7
P. Fusi sub	18	0	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.2

Ascoli Player Stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
S. Vitale	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
N. Rizzo	90	0	0	0	1	Y	6.3
G. Corradini	90	1	1	0	3	0	7
A. Guiébré	90	2	1	1	2	0	6.7
S. D'Uffizi	90	3	1	3	1	0	6.9
S. Damiani	82	1	1	3	3	0	7.7
T. Milanese	72	1	0	0	1	0	6.5
M. Curado	72	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
D. Bolsius	72	1	0	3	0	0	6.3
A. Chakir	72	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
G. De Pieri	71	0	0	1	1	Y	7.3
A. Silipo sub	19	2	0	1	0	0	6.7
G. Gori sub	18	2	1	1	0	0	6.3
A. Oliveri sub	18	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
M. Brunori sub	18	2	0	0	0	0	6.6
G. Acampora sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	6.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Padova v Ascoli — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

PadovaWLWDL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

AscoliWLWDW

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 2

Padova 1 · 0 draws · Ascoli 1 · 4 goals/game

2019-04-02 Padova 1–2 Ascoli
2018-11-10 Ascoli 2–3 Padova

League standing · 2026/27

Padova#9 pos14 pts10 pl-1 GD

Ascoli#3 pos19 pts10 pl+10 GD

Goals per game

Padova scored1

Ascoli scored1.6

Padova conceded1.1

Ascoli conceded0.6

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Padova v Ascoli?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Padova v Ascoli was Under 2.5 goals (best price 1.83 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Ascoli?: In their last 2 meetings, Padova won 1, Ascoli won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 4 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Padova and Ascoli?: Recent form — Padova 2W 1D 2L; Ascoli 3W 1D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 26 Sep 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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