Bayern MünchenReal Madrid

Bayern München v Real Madrid result

Full-time · Bayern München 4–3 Real Madrid

UEFA Champions League ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Bayern München · Real Madrid · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Bayern München 4–3 Real Madrid — Bayern München won this UEFA Champions League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Both teams to score: Yes.

Free pick
Both teams to score: Yes
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: 2 of 4 calls the model rated 70% or more on Both teams to score: Yes landed in the last 90 days (too few for a rate). How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Bayern München beat Real Madrid 4–3 in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 15 April. Bayern München are unbeaten in at least their last 15 matches in all competitions. Real Madrid are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.

The goals

Bayern München came from behind: Real Madrid led 3–2 at half-time. The goals — Real Madrid: Arda Güler (1’, 29’) and Kylian Mbappé (42’, assisted by Vinícius Júnior); Bayern München: Aleksandar Pavlović (6’, assisted by Joshua Kimmich), Harry Kane (38’, assisted by Dayotchanculle Upamecano), L. Díaz (89’, assisted by Jamal Musiala) and Michael Olise (90’, assisted by Harry Kane). Arda Güler (-5’) and Eduardo Camavinga (86’) were sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s nine key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Michael Olise’s goal on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Bayern München 2.14, Real Madrid 2.25, from 21 shots to 12 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

S. Vincic showed seven yellow cards and two reds — against 2.6 yellows a game across the last 7 matches refereed (this competition).

What it changes

Bayern München have scored 43 goals, the most of the 82 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 14 games, ranked per game). Bayern München have conceded 20 goals, the 30th-fewest (shared) of the 82 clubs.

Real Madrid have scored 33 goals, the sixth-most of the 82 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 14 games, ranked per game). Real Madrid have conceded 20 goals, the 30th-fewest (shared) of the 82 clubs.

Bayern München have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions. Real Madrid have scored in nine consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Dayotchanculle Upamecano (Bayern München) 9.5, Joshua Kimmich (Bayern München) 9.5 and Harry Kane (Bayern München) 8.9 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Both teams to score: Yes, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market: 2 of 4 landed in the last 90 days.

Next up

Bayern München next travel to FSV Mainz 05 on 7 November 2026.

Real Madrid next travel to Valencia on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Bayern München: FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern München, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Real Madrid: Valencia v Real Madrid, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Bayern München 4–3 Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League
  • Referee: S. Vincic
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 5): Bayern München 1 · draws 2 · Real Madrid 2 · 3.4 goals/game
  • Recent form: Bayern München 5W 0D 0L · Real Madrid 2W 1D 2L

Bayern München 4–3 Real Madrid (UEFA Champions League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

3.63 / 2.13
Goals
against 0.88 / 1.25 · 5 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
7 / 5.5
Corners
against 3.38 / 5.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
8.63 / 7.13
Shots on target
against 5 / 4.5 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.5 / 1.5
Cards
against 1.5 / 2.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
2.57 yellows
Referee · S. Vincic
23.43 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 11 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameBayern München for / againstLineReal Madrid for / against
Goals scored
3.63 for · 0.88 against n 8
2.5standard
2.13 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
7 for · 3.38 against n 8
9.5standard
5.5 for · 5.38 against n 8
Shots
21.38 for · 12.5 against n 8
19.5standard
16 for · 12.25 against n 8
Shots on target
8.63 for · 5 against n 8
8.5standard
7.13 for · 4.5 against n 8
Fouls committed
9.5 for · 9.63 against n 8
21.5standard
9.63 for · 12.5 against n 8
Cards shown
2.5 for · 1.5 against n 8
3.5standard
1.5 for · 2.63 against n 8

Referee: S. Vincic — 2.57 yellow cards a game, 0.43 red cards, 23.43 fouls over 7 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Bayern München

Bayern München Goalkeeper

Bayern München — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Neuer37883240 min802.2 /90361 /9000 /90
J. Urbig14841170 min352.7 /90131 /9000 /90
S. Ulreich19090 min66 /9011 /9000 /90
Bayern München — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayern München before kick-off, to 11 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Neuer n 878.8
2.94/3
J. Urbig n 878.8
3.35/4

Bayern München Defensive

Bayern München — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Tah44813546 min471.2 /90401 /90250.6 /901443.7 /90571.4 /9090.2 /90
D. Upamecano40763050 min872.6 /90371.1 /9090.3 /901624.8 /90401.2 /9090.3 /90
K. Laimer39742884 min792.5 /90270.8 /9070.2 /901364.2 /90431.3 /90130.4 /90
J. Stanišić36792837 min441.4 /90301 /9070.2 /901133.6 /90110.3 /9030.1 /90
T. Bischof22651439 min221.4 /90110.7 /9030.2 /90523.3 /90161 /9030.2 /90
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Bayern München — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayern München before kick-off, to 11 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Olise n 878.8
14/2
3.17/6
Vinícius Júnior
H. Kane n 879.6
0.84/2
1.65/4
—
J. Kimmich n 884.9
0.32/0
1.36/3
A. Güler
J. Tah n 877.4
1.55/3
0.32/0
—
L. Díaz n 878
1.66/3
13/3
Vinícius Júnior
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Bayern München — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayern München before kick-off, to 11 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Olise n 878.8
0.73/2
H. Kane n 879.6
0.85/1
J. Kimmich n 884.9
1.66/5
J. Tah n 877.4
1.55/3
L. Díaz n 878
0.95/1
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Bayern München Attacking

Bayern München — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
H. Kane46803658 min521.3 /9060.1 /901383.4 /901012.5 /90591.5 /90501.2 /90
N. Jackson1950942 min80.8 /9030.3 /90363.4 /90232.2 /90191.8 /9080.8 /90
M. Olise47783666 min200.5 /90270.7 /901082.7 /90721.8 /901182.9 /901132.8 /90
J. Kimmich45823710 min20 /9090.2 /90250.6 /90120.3 /90942.3 /90150.4 /90
L. Díaz41823360 min230.6 /90150.4 /90902.4 /90561.5 /90862.3 /90862.3 /90
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Bayern München — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayern München before kick-off, to 11 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Olise n 878.8
3.48/7
28/3
H. Kane n 879.6
4.18/7
2.88/6
J. Kimmich n 884.9
1.14/3
0.83/2
J. Tah n 877.4
00/0
00/0
L. Díaz n 878
1.97/5
0.75/0
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Bayern München — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayern München before kick-off, to 11 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Olise n 878.8
0.63/1
0.64/0
H. Kane n 879.6
1.67/4
00/0
J. Kimmich n 884.9
0.11/0
00/0
J. Tah n 877.4
00/0
00/0
L. Díaz n 878
0.64/0
0.43/0
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Real Madrid

Real Madrid Goalkeeper

Real Madrid — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Thibaut Courtois47894185 min1423.1 /90461 /9000 /90
A. Lunin885682 min243.2 /90152 /9000 /90
Real Madrid — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Madrid before kick-off, to 11 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Thibaut Courtois n 884.4
2.96/5
A. Lunin n 885.3
3.26/5

Real Madrid Defensive

Real Madrid — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Dean Huijsen39803113 min531.5 /90341 /90220.6 /901604.6 /90320.9 /9080.2 /90
Álvaro Fernández35893127 min651.9 /90471.4 /90160.5 /901725 /90401.2 /9090.3 /90
Raúl Asencio33722360 min230.9 /90150.6 /90180.7 /90853.2 /90251 /9080.3 /90
A. Rüdiger24852032 min140.6 /9080.4 /90100.4 /90502.2 /90150.7 /9010 /90
Trent Alexander-Arnold22741637 min301.6 /90211.2 /9050.3 /90432.4 /9080.4 /9020.1 /90
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Real Madrid — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Madrid before kick-off, to 11 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Vinícius Júnior n 878.3
0.63/1
2.36/5
L. Díaz
A. Güler n 860.5
0.94/1
0.94/1
J. Kimmich
F. Valverde n 884.4
0.85/1
0.52/1
—
A. Tchouaméni n 885.6
1.37/3
0.95/2
—
Thibaut Courtois n 884.4
0.11/0
0.32/0
—
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Real Madrid — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Madrid before kick-off, to 11 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Vinícius Júnior n 878.3
0.95/1
A. Güler n 860.5
3.27/5
F. Valverde n 884.4
1.96/4
A. Tchouaméni n 885.6
2.48/7
Kylian Mbappé n 873.4
0.32/0
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Real Madrid Attacking

Real Madrid — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Vinícius Júnior52794100 min180.4 /90100.2 /901222.7 /90681.5 /90871.9 /901222.7 /90
Kylian Mbappé40823279 min401.1 /9050.1 /901423.9 /90912.5 /90902.5 /90882.4 /90
Gonzalo García26601565 min100.6 /9020.1 /90281.6 /90201.2 /90140.8 /9050.3 /90
Rodrygo22511125 min30.2 /9050.4 /90312.5 /90191.5 /90302.4 /90312.5 /90
Daniel Yañez13232 min00 /9012.8 /9000 /9000 /9025.6 /9000 /90
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Real Madrid — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Madrid before kick-off, to 11 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Vinícius Júnior n 878.3
47/6
2.36/5
A. Güler n 860.5
1.14/2
0.63/0
F. Valverde n 884.4
27/5
1.66/4
A. Tchouaméni n 885.6
1.46/4
0.53/1
Thibaut Courtois n 884.4
00/0
00/0
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Real Madrid — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Madrid before kick-off, to 11 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Vinícius Júnior n 878.3
0.62/2
00/0
A. Güler n 860.5
0.21/0
0.21/0
F. Valverde n 884.4
0.95/1
00/0
A. Tchouaméni n 885.6
0.11/0
0.11/0
Thibaut Courtois n 884.4
00/0
0.11/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Bayern MünchenReal Madrid
69%Possession31%
2.14Expected goals (xG)2.25
21Shots12
9Shots on target5
5Shots off target4
7Blocked shots3
15Shots inside the box7
9Corners2
2Offsides1
10Fouls12
1Yellow cards6
0Red cards2
2Saves4
640Passes294
88%Pass accuracy78%

Bayern München Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Neuer9000000005.9
D. Upamecano9001202507
J. Tah9000000006.5
K. Laimer9000000206.2
J. Kimmich9001114408.7
A. Pavlović9010110108.2
M. Olise9010322008.3
L. Díaz9010111307.9
H. Kane9011323008
S. Gnabry6100210006.2
J. Stanišić45001111Y5.9
A. Davies sub4500001007
J. Musiala sub2901001007.2

Real Madrid Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Lunin9000000006.3
Éder Militão90000001Y6.5
A. Rüdiger90000001Y6.7
F. Mendy9000000005.9
J. Bellingham9000100407.6
F. Valverde9000110106.7
Kylian Mbappé9010223108.3
Vinícius Júnior9001302006.7
Trent Alexander-Arnold8900002406.9
A. Güler89202202RY8.6
Brahim Díaz6200002006.9
Eduardo Camavinga sub24000001RY6.3
Thiago Pitarch sub10000000–
Franco Mastantuono sub10000000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Bayern München v Real Madrid — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Bayern MünchenWWWWW
Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 3.6 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Real MadridWWLLD
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 5
Bayern München 1 · 2 draws · Real Madrid 2 · 3.4 goals/game
  • 2026-04-07 Real Madrid 1–2 Bayern München
  • 2024-05-08 Real Madrid 2–1 Bayern Munich
  • 2024-04-30 Bayern Munich 2–2 Real Madrid
  • 2018-05-01 Real Madrid 2–2 Bayern Munich
  • 2018-04-25 Bayern Munich 1–2 Real Madrid
League standing · 2025/26
Last recorded position — not updated during the season.
Bayern München#2 pos21 pts8 pl+14 GD
Real Madrid#9 pos15 pts8 pl+9 GD
Goals per game
Bayern München scored2.75
Real Madrid scored2.63
Bayern München conceded1
Real Madrid conceded1.5

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Bayern München v Real Madrid?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Bayern München v Real Madrid was Both teams to score: Yes.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Real Madrid?
In their last 5 meetings, Bayern München won 1, Real Madrid won 2 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.4 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Bayern München and Real Madrid?
Recent form — Bayern München 5W 0D 0L; Real Madrid 2W 1D 2L.

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