Estonia v Bulgaria prediction

UEFA Nations League · Mon, 16 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 12:20 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Draw the free pick for Estonia v Bulgaria, UEFA Nations League on Mon, 16 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT.

Free pick

Home or Draw

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.7% of 1766 landed (95% range 74.7–78.6%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Estonia host Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League on Monday 16 November (kick-off 17:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Estonia or the draw, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Estonia are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Seven of Estonia’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in seven of Estonia’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Estonia have one win, two draws and four defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 0.71 points per game, scoring 0.57 and conceding 1.57.

10 of Bulgaria’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in six of Bulgaria’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). Away from home, Bulgaria have two wins, no draws and six defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.75 points per game, scoring 0.50 and conceding 2.38.

Estonia have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches in all competitions. Estonia (second) and Bulgaria (third) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Estonia the stronger side, 44 rating points above Bulgaria (Estonia 1410, Bulgaria 1367, after at least 28 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 29 September 2026, finished Bulgaria 0–0 Estonia.

Team news

Predicted Estonia XI (5-3-2): M. Igonen, M. Paskotši, M. Kuusk, K. Mets, M. Schjønning-Larsen, E. Tougjas, M. Poom, M. Kait, K. Palumets, P. Kristal, M. Männilaan — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, R. Peetson (5.2 per match over three appearances, one goal and one assist) and Maksim Paskotši (3.3 per match over four appearances, one goal) have been Estonia’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Estonia (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), R. Peetson averages 1.0 key passes per 90 over 270 minutes. Maksim Paskotši averages 1.7 tackles per 90 over 1091 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Bulgaria XI (4-2-3-1): D. Naumov, S. Velkov, K. Dimitrov, D. Velkovski, I. Turitsov, I. Gruev, A. Kraev, G. Rusev, P. Panayotov, M. Minchev, A. Iliev — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, D. Naumov (4.5 per match over four appearances) and D. Velkovski (4.1 per match over three appearances, one assist) have been Bulgaria’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Bulgaria (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), D. Naumov averages 4.0 saves per 90 over 360 minutes. D. Velkovski averages 3.3 tackles per 90 over 270 minutes.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Mon, 16 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT · UEFA Nations League
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 1): Estonia 0 · draws 1 · Bulgaria 0 · 0 goals/game
Recent form: Estonia 1W 3D 1L · Bulgaria 2W 1D 2L

Estonia v Bulgaria (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.63 / 0.75

Goals

against 1.75 / 2.25 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

3.13 / 3.38

Corners

against 6.88 / 7 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

3.63 / 3

Shots on target

against 5.75 / 6.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.13 / 2

Cards

against 2.25 / 1.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 6 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Estonia for / against	Line	Bulgaria for / against
Goals scored	0.63 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.75 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.13 for · 6.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.38 for · 7 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	8.75 for · 19.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	8.63 for · 17 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.63 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3 for · 6.25 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	16.25 for · 10.13 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.5 for · 12.5 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.13 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5

Estonia

Estonia Goalkeeper

Estonia — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
K. Hein	2	90180 min	94.5 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90
Matvei Igonen	2	90180 min	42 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Estonia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estonia before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
K. Hein n 8	90	4.8 8/6
Matvei Igonen n 5	90	2.8 4/1

Estonia Defensive

Estonia — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
M. Paskotši	4	90360 min	61.5 /90	51.3 /90	30.8 /90	123 /90	112.8 /90	10.3 /90
M. Schjønning-Larsen	4	75299 min	41.2 /90	41.2 /90	10.3 /90	92.7 /90	30.9 /90	10.3 /90
Karol Mets	3	90270 min	41.3 /90	20.7 /90	10.3 /90	124 /90	51.7 /90	20.7 /90
M. Kuusk	3	90270 min	41.3 /90	31 /90	00 /90	124 /90	51.7 /90	10.3 /90
Erko Jonne Tougjas	2	90180 min	10.5 /90	10.5 /90	21 /90	52.5 /90	31.5 /90	00 /90
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Estonia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estonia before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Paskotši n 8	88.8	1.8 6/4	0.1 1/0	—
M. Poom n 8	73.4	1.2 4/3	0.5 3/0	—
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 8	76.8	0.6 3/1	1.2 3/2	—
P. Kristal n 8	63.3	2.7 6/5	2.7 7/5	—
K. Palumets n 8	70.3	0.5 3/0	0.3 2/0	—
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Estonia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estonia before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
M. Poom n 8	73.4	1.5 7/3
M. Paskotši n 8	88.8	1.1 5/3
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 8	76.8	0.9 5/1
P. Kristal n 8	63.3	2.1 8/2
K. Palumets n 8	70.3	1 5/1
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Estonia Attacking

Estonia — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Karel Mustmaa	4	44176 min	00 /90	00 /90	31.5 /90	21 /90	00 /90	00 /90
M. Männilaan	3	57172 min	00 /90	00 /90	31.6 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90
R. Saarma	2	82164 min	00 /90	00 /90	42.2 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Mihkel Ainsalu	1	6161 min	00 /90	00 /90	11.5 /90	11.5 /90	11.5 /90	00 /90
M. Poom	4	90360 min	00 /90	00 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90
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Estonia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estonia before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Poom n 8	73.4	1.1 4/3	0 0/0
M. Paskotši n 8	88.8	0.9 6/1	0.5 3/1
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 8	76.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
P. Kristal n 8	63.3	1.1 5/1	0.2 1/0
K. Palumets n 8	70.3	0.6 2/2	0.5 2/1
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Estonia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estonia before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Paskotši n 8	88.8	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
M. Poom n 8	73.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Schjønning-Larsen n 8	76.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
P. Kristal n 8	63.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. Palumets n 8	70.3	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
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Bulgaria

Bulgaria Goalkeeper

Bulgaria — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
D. Naumov	4	90360 min	164 /90	51.3 /90	10.3 /90

Bulgaria — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bulgaria before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
D. Naumov n 5	90	4.2 4/4

Bulgaria Defensive

Bulgaria — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Velkovski	3	90270 min	103.3 /90	62 /90	00 /90	144.7 /90	51.7 /90	20.7 /90
K. Dimitrov	3	90270 min	31 /90	20.7 /90	31 /90	165.3 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90
Stefan Velkov	3	90270 min	62 /90	31 /90	20.7 /90	206.7 /90	62 /90	10.3 /90
I. Turitsov	3	84253 min	51.8 /90	72.5 /90	00 /90	155.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Emil Tsenov	3	64193 min	31.4 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90	73.3 /90	20.9 /90	10.5 /90
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Bulgaria — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bulgaria before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
D. Naumov n 5	90	0 0/0	0.4 2/0	—
Ilia Gruev n 8	79.9	0.6 2/2	0.8 5/1	—
P. Panayotov n 4	32.5	3.5 3/2	0 0/0	—
D. Velkovski n 4	90	1.5 4/1	0.8 3/0	—
Stefan Velkov n 4	90	1.5 2/1	0.8 2/1	—
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Bulgaria — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bulgaria before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Ilia Gruev n 8	79.9	1.1 7/1
P. Panayotov n 4	32.5	2.1 3/0
D. Velkovski n 4	90	2.5 3/3
Stefan Velkov n 4	90	1.5 3/1
K. Dimitrov n 8	88	0.8 4/2
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Bulgaria Attacking

Bulgaria — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
L. Petkov	3	78235 min	00 /90	00 /90	31.1 /90	00 /90	10.4 /90	31.1 /90
Z. Dimitrov	3	45136 min	00 /90	00 /90	32 /90	21.3 /90	32 /90	10.7 /90
M. Petkov	3	42127 min	00 /90	00 /90	32.1 /90	10.7 /90	21.4 /90	53.5 /90
Stanislav Ivanov	3	3089 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	11 /90	00 /90
Atanas Iliev	2	75149 min	10.6 /90	00 /90	63.6 /90	31.8 /90	10.6 /90	00 /90
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Bulgaria — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bulgaria before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
D. Naumov n 5	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Ilia Gruev n 8	79.9	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
P. Panayotov n 4	32.5	0.7 1/0	0.7 1/0
D. Velkovski n 4	90	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
K. Dimitrov n 8	88	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
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Bulgaria — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bulgaria before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
D. Naumov n 5	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Ilia Gruev n 8	79.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
P. Panayotov n 4	32.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Velkovski n 4	90	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
Stefan Velkov n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Estonia v Bulgaria — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

EstoniaLDDWD

Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 0.6 scored / 1 conceded per game

BulgariaWLDLW

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 1

Estonia 0 · 1 draw · Bulgaria 0 · 0 goals/game

2026-09-29 Bulgaria 0–0 Estonia

League standing · 2026/27

Estonia#2 pos6 pts4 pl+1 GD

Bulgaria#3 pos4 pts4 pl-2 GD

Goals per game

Estonia scored0.5

Bulgaria scored0.75

Estonia conceded0.25

Bulgaria conceded1.25

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Estonia v Bulgaria?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Estonia v Bulgaria is Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Estonia and Bulgaria?: In their last 1 meetings, Estonia won 0, Bulgaria won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 0 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Estonia and Bulgaria?: Recent form — Estonia 1W 3D 1L; Bulgaria 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 12:20 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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