Start with the hub: How accurate is TACTIX?. Below, every TACTIX article on this topic, newest first.
Premier League title odds simulation #8: title race and the drop
Premier League title odds simulation #8 (updated 8 November 2026): title, top-four and relegation chances for all 20 clubs, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Premier League title odds simulation #7: title race and the drop
Premier League title odds simulation #7 (updated 1 November 2026): title, top-four and relegation chances for all 20 clubs, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
TACTIX model scorecard — October 2026
TACTIX model scorecard, October 2026: how closely the model’s probabilities matched the results, bucket by bucket, and against the bookmakers’ closing prices.
Premier League simulation report #6: title race and the drop
Premier League simulation report #6 (updated 26 October 2026): title, top-four and relegation chances for all 20 clubs, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
TACTIX model scorecard — August 2026
How closely the TACTIX model’s probabilities matched the results in August 2026, bucket by bucket, and how they compared with the bookmakers’ closing prices. Good months and bad months are published the same way.
TACTIX Simulation Report #4 — title race, top four and the drop, by the numbers
Issue #4 of the weekly simulation record: the full Premier League movement table, one line per club, and the biggest movers across the covered leagues. Updated 20 September 2026.
TACTIX Simulation Report #3 — title race, top four and the drop, by the numbers
Issue #3 of the weekly simulation record: the full Premier League movement table, one line per club, and the biggest movers across the covered leagues. Updated 13 September 2026.
TACTIX Simulation Report #2 — title race, top four and the drop, by the numbers
Issue #2 of the weekly simulation record: the full Premier League movement table, one line per club, and the biggest movers across the covered leagues. Updated 16 August 2026.
TACTIX Simulation Report #1 — title race, top four and the drop, by the numbers
Issue #1 of the weekly simulation record: the full Premier League movement table, one line per club, and the biggest movers across the covered leagues. Updated 7 August 2026.
TACTIX Upset Index — week 45, 2026
TACTIX Upset Index week 45: UCD 1–2 Drogheda United topped the ranking, priced at 9.8% pre-match. The week's most improbable results, ranked.
Log loss explained
Log loss scores a probabilistic forecast by the logarithm of the chance it gave to what actually happened.
Brier score explained
The Brier score measures forecast accuracy as the mean squared error between stated chances and outcomes.
Reliability curve explained
A reliability curve plots predicted probabilities against how often those predictions actually came true, in buckets.
Are football prediction sites accurate? The honest test
Are football prediction sites accurate? Headline hit rates mostly measure how easy the matches were. Calibration is the fair test, with a live record to check.
World Cup 2026 calibration report: how honest were the model’s probabilities?
World Cup 2026 calibration report: across 46,013 graded TACTIX predictions, stated probabilities tracked reality to within ~0.8pp (weighted ECE). Full reliabili
What is Model Calibration in Football Predictions?
Calibration tests whether a model’s probabilities are honest — when it says 60%, does it happen 60% of the time? Why it matters more than a headline “accuracy”