This Matchweek

VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln result

Full-time · VfB Stuttgart 4–1 1. FC Köln

Bundesliga · · MHPArena

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: VfB Stuttgart · 1. FC Köln · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

VfB Stuttgart 4–1 1. FC Köln — VfB Stuttgart won this Bundesliga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.37 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67% of 578 landed (95% range 63–70.7%); it had given them 76.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 528 of 821 times (64.3%), against an average rating of 67.7%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said VfB Stuttgart: 3.53 to 2.88 in expected goals, from 22 shots to 18, ahead on xG from the third minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

VfB Stuttgart beat 1. FC Köln 4–1 at MHPArena in the Bundesliga on Friday 4 September. 1. FC Köln have scored in 13 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

VfB Stuttgart led 1–0 at half-time. The goals TACTIX’s match events name — VfB Stuttgart: Bilal El Khannouss (39’, assisted by Josha Vagnoman), Grischa Prömel (60’, assisted by Maximilian Mittelstädt), Ermedin Demirović (75’, assisted by Finn Jeltsch), an own goal by Ramon Hendriks (81’) and Josha Vagnoman (90’).

Discipline

Christian Dingert, Germany showed four yellow cards — against 3.4 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — VfB Stuttgart: Maximilian Mittelstädt (51’); 1. FC Köln: Jahmai Simpson-Pusey (41’), Tom Krauß (85’) and Alessio Castro-Montes (86’).

What it changes

VfB Stuttgart move up from 18th to seventh (two league matches played). VfB Stuttgart have scored 14 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 8 games). VfB Stuttgart have conceded 15 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

1. FC Köln move down from second to eighth (two league matches played). 1. FC Köln have scored nine goals, the fifth-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 8 games). 1. FC Köln have conceded 12 goals, the seventh-fewest of the 18 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Josha Vagnoman (VfB Stuttgart) 9.2, Bilal El Khannouss (VfB Stuttgart) 7.5 and Finn Jeltsch (VfB Stuttgart) 6.0 led the match.

Head-to-head

VfB Stuttgart are unbeaten in the last six meetings with 1. FC Köln, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 67% of the time in the last 90 days (387 of 578).

Next up

VfB Stuttgart next travel to Galatasaray on 3 November 2026.

1. FC Köln next host Bayer Leverkusen on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for VfB Stuttgart: Galatasaray v VfB Stuttgart, Tuesday 3 November — the preview. Next for 1. FC Köln: 1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: VfB Stuttgart 4–1 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga
  • Venue: MHPArena · Stuttgart
  • Referee: Christian Dingert, Germany
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): VfB Stuttgart 4 · draws 2 · 1. FC Köln 0 · 2.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: VfB Stuttgart 2W 1D 2L · 1. FC Köln 2W 1D 2L

VfB Stuttgart 4–1 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 18 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 1.75
Goals
against 2 / 2.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
6.57 / 5.25
Corners
against 4.43 / 5.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
5.71 / 5.5
Shots on target
against 6.43 / 4 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.86 / 1.5
Cards
against 1.29 / 2.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
3.36 yellows
Referee · Christian Dingert, Germany
20.82 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 11 matches
19
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 29 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 29 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameVfB Stuttgart for / againstLine1. FC Köln for / against
Goals scored
1.88 for · 2 against n 8
3.5our book
1.75 for · 2.13 against n 8
Corners won
6.57 for · 4.43 against n 7
9.5standard
5.25 for · 5.13 against n 8
Shots
15.29 for · 13.43 against n 7
19.5standard
15.88 for · 12 against n 8
Shots on target
5.71 for · 6.43 against n 7
8.5standard
5.5 for · 4 against n 8
Fouls committed
11 for · 10.14 against n 7
21.5standard
8.88 for · 8 against n 8
Cards shown
1.86 for · 1.29 against n 7
3.5standard
1.5 for · 2.13 against n 8

Referee: Christian Dingert, Germany — 3.36 yellow cards a game, 0.27 red cards, 20.82 fouls over 11 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart Goalkeeper

VfB Stuttgart — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
F. Bredlow290180 min115.5 /9052.5 /9000 /90
VfB Stuttgart — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfB Stuttgart before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
F. Bredlow n 890
37/4

VfB Stuttgart Defensive

VfB Stuttgart — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Finn Jeltsch290180 min42 /9021 /9010.5 /9094.5 /9021 /9010.5 /90
J. Chabot282164 min63.3 /9042.2 /9010.5 /90168.8 /9052.7 /9010.5 /90
R. Hendriks19090 min11 /9011 /9000 /9066 /9000 /9000 /90
G. Prömel290180 min10.5 /9021 /9010.5 /9063 /9031.5 /9010.5 /90
M. Mittelstädt290180 min52.5 /9021 /9021 /90115.5 /9010.5 /9000 /90
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VfB Stuttgart — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfB Stuttgart before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Finn Jeltsch n 873.9
1.53/3
0.95/1
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
M. Mittelstädt n 871.4
0.32/0
1.16/1
A. Castro-Montes
F. Bredlow n 890
00/0
0.43/0
—
A. Stiller n 886.1
1.45/3
1.26/3
T. Krauß
J. Vagnoman n 872.8
0.94/2
0.53/0
T. Krauß
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VfB Stuttgart — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfB Stuttgart before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Mittelstädt n 871.4
37/5
Finn Jeltsch n 873.9
1.86/2
A. Stiller n 886.1
2.17/6
J. Vagnoman n 872.8
0.83/1
J. Chabot n 883.6
2.68/5
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VfB Stuttgart Attacking

VfB Stuttgart — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
D. Undav282164 min00 /9021.1 /9010.5 /9000 /9063.3 /9010.5 /90
D. Pejčinović275149 min31.8 /9000 /9053 /9031.8 /9010.6 /9010.6 /90
Tiago Tomás274148 min10.6 /9010.6 /9053 /9031.8 /9010.6 /9021.2 /90
J. Leweling12828 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9013.2 /9013.2 /90
E. Demirović12727 min00 /9000 /9013.3 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
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VfB Stuttgart — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfB Stuttgart before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Mittelstädt n 871.4
0.94/2
0.64/0
Finn Jeltsch n 873.9
0.31/1
0.21/0
F. Bredlow n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Stiller n 886.1
0.53/1
0.32/0
J. Vagnoman n 872.8
0.32/0
0.21/0
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VfB Stuttgart — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfB Stuttgart before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Mittelstädt n 871.4
0.21/0
00/0
F. Bredlow n 890
00/0
00/0
Finn Jeltsch n 873.9
00/0
00/0
A. Stiller n 886.1
00/0
00/0
J. Vagnoman n 872.8
0.21/0
0.21/0
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1. FC Köln

1. FC Köln Goalkeeper

1. FC Köln — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Schwäbe290180 min31.5 /9031.5 /9010.5 /90
1. FC Köln — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for 1. FC Köln before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Schwäbe n 890
1.84/1

1. FC Köln Defensive

1. FC Köln — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey290180 min21 /9031.5 /9000 /9063 /9021 /9000 /90
A. Castro-Montes290179 min63 /9000 /9000 /9084 /9010.5 /9000 /90
L. Lochoshvili286172 min10.5 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9084.2 /9021 /9000 /90
G. Mensah283165 min42.2 /9010.5 /9000 /9084.4 /9042.2 /9000 /90
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson290180 min63 /9021 /9000 /9073.5 /9000 /9000 /90
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1. FC Köln — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for 1. FC Köln before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson n 869.4
0.83/1
0.21/0
—
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey n 884.6
0.75/0
0.53/1
Finn Jeltsch
M. Schwäbe n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
A. Castro-Montes n 862.9
1.14/2
0.94/1
M. Mittelstädt
T. Krauß n 882.9
0.85/1
1.57/3
J. Vagnoman
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1. FC Köln — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for 1. FC Köln before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson n 869.4
2.14/4
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey n 884.6
0.85/1
T. Krauß n 882.9
3.38/8
A. Castro-Montes n 862.9
2.56/5
J. Thielmann n 852.8
1.54/2
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1. FC Köln Attacking

1. FC Köln — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
J. Thielmann283165 min00 /9000 /9021.1 /9000 /9010.5 /9010.5 /90
S. El Mala277154 min10.6 /9000 /9063.5 /9052.9 /9021.2 /9010.6 /90
R. Ache270140 min00 /9010.6 /9031.9 /9021.3 /9031.9 /9000 /90
T. Dallinga22040 min24.5 /9000 /9049 /9024.5 /9000 /9000 /90
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson290180 min21 /9000 /9021 /9021 /9052.5 /9000 /90
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1. FC Köln — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for 1. FC Köln before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson n 869.4
0.83/2
0.63/1
M. Schwäbe n 890
00/0
00/0
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey n 884.6
00/0
00/0
A. Castro-Montes n 862.9
0.53/0
00/0
T. Krauß n 882.9
0.32/0
0.32/0
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1. FC Köln — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for 1. FC Köln before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson n 869.4
0.31/1
00/0
M. Schwäbe n 890
00/0
00/0
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey n 884.6
00/0
00/0
T. Krauß n 882.9
00/0
0.11/0
A. Castro-Montes n 862.9
00/0
00/0
See more players · Pro

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
VfB Stuttgart1. FC Köln
58%Possession42%
3.47Expected goals (xG)2.86
22Shots18
8Shots on target5
8Shots off target9
6Blocked shots4
15Shots inside the box14
10Corners8
1Offsides0
5Fouls6
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
3Saves4
526Passes378
86%Pass accuracy84%

VfB Stuttgart Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Chabot9000210207.9
F. Bredlow9000000007.3
G. Prömel9010110007.9
D. Pejčinović9000510206.2
Finn Jeltsch9001212207.2
J. Vagnoman9011214008.2
A. Stiller8900100006.9
M. Mittelstädt78010041Y8.9
B. El Khannouss7810112308.9
D. Undav7000112006.6
C. Führich7000003207.3
J. Leweling sub2000000006.5
E. Demirović sub2010111008.3
L. Sauer sub1200000006.7
R. Hendriks sub1200000007.3
Y. Spalt sub10000000–

1. FC Köln Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey90000001Y6.3
G. Mensah9000100105.9
L. Lochoshvili9000100005.6
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson9000101106.6
A. Castro-Montes90000013Y6.3
M. Schwäbe9000000006.3
T. Krauß89002012Y6.3
L. Maina7500001006.9
R. Ache7500002006.3
J. Thielmann4500101006.3
Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler4500000006.9
M. Moore sub4500222007.2
E. Skhiri sub4500211007
M. Bülter sub1510321007.5
Reigan Heskey sub1500100006.3
I. Rondić sub10000000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
VfB StuttgartWDLWL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
1. FC KölnDLLWW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.8 scored / 2.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
VfB Stuttgart 4 · 2 draws · 1. FC Köln 0 · 2.33 goals/game
  • 2026-02-14 VfB Stuttgart 3–1 1. FC Köln
  • 2025-09-28 1. FC Köln 1–2 VfB Stuttgart
  • 2024-02-24 VfB Stuttgart 1–1 1. FC Köln
  • 2023-09-30 1. FC Köln 0–2 VfB Stuttgart
  • 2023-02-18 VfB Stuttgart 3–0 1. FC Köln
  • 2022-08-28 1. FC Köln 0–0 VfB Stuttgart
League standing · 2026/27
VfB Stuttgart#10 pos9 pts8 pl-1 GD
1. FC Köln#12 pos9 pts8 pl-3 GD
Goals per game
VfB Stuttgart scored1.75
1. FC Köln scored1.13
VfB Stuttgart conceded1.88
1. FC Köln conceded1.5

Shot Map and Expected Goals

VfB Stuttgart 3.53 xG from 22 shots, 1. FC Köln 2.88 from 18. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Marius Bülter 80' · 0.82 xGDzenan Pejcinovic 14' · 0.67 xGJoshua Vagnoman 8' · 0.62 xGEllyes Skhiri 46' · 0.55 xGFinn Jeltsch 65' · 0.39 xGDzenan Pejcinovic 70' · 0.30 xGJulian Chabot 71' · 0.20 xGRagnar Ache 55' · 0.14 xGJulian Chabot 29' · 0.12 xGDeniz Undav 18' · 0.12 xGDzenan Pejcinovic 34' · 0.10 xGTom Krauß 52' · 0.10 xGDzenan Pejcinovic 62' · 0.09 xGMarius Bülter 79' · 0.09 xGMikey Moore 55' · 0.08 xGLeo Sauer 87' · 0.08 xGGrischa Prömel 15' · 0.07 xGRagnar Ache 73' · 0.06 xGÍsak Bergmann Jóhannesson 56' · 0.06 xGTom Krauß 57' · 0.06 xGMikey Moore 52' · 0.06 xGBilal El Khannouss 65' · 0.06 xGGrischa Prömel 21' · 0.06 xGAngelo Stiller 62' · 0.05 xGLuka Lochoshvili 42' · 0.04 xGDzenan Pejcinovic 3' · 0.04 xGLinton Maina 5' · 0.04 xGJoshua Vagnoman 21' · 0.03 xGEllyes Skhiri 48' · 0.02 xGFinn Jeltsch 86' · 0.02 xGGideon Mensah 46' · 0.02 xGGideon Mensah 18' · 0.02 xGDzenan Pejcinovic 35' · 0.02 xGReigan Heskey 78' · 0.02 xGJan Thielmann 42' · 0.02 xGMarius Bülter 80' · 0.69 xG · goalErmedin Demirovic 74' · 0.25 xG · goalGrischa Prömel 59' · 0.12 xG · goalBilal El Khannouss 38' · 0.10 xG · goalJoshua Vagnoman 89' · 0.03 xG · goal
VfB Stuttgart (attacking right)1. FC Köln (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
VfB Stuttgart2243.53
1. FC Köln1812.88

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, VfB Stuttgart led on xG, 1.94 to 0.11. At full time, VfB Stuttgart led on xG, 3.53 to 2.88. The widest gap was 2.14 xG to VfB Stuttgart, in the 74th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
3.51.800′15′30′45′60′75′90′Match minuteCumulative xGGoal - VfB Stuttgart 38 minGoal - VfB Stuttgart 59 minGoal - VfB Stuttgart 74 minGoal - 1. FC Köln 80 minGoal - VfB Stuttgart 89 min
VfB Stuttgart 3.53 xG1. FC Köln 2.88 xGdots = goals · 40 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln?
TACTIX’s free model pick for VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.37 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln?
In their last 6 meetings, VfB Stuttgart won 4, 1. FC Köln won 0 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln?
Recent form — VfB Stuttgart 2W 1D 2L; 1. FC Köln 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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