This Matchweek

CardiffWatford

Cardiff v Watford result

Full-time · Cardiff 5–1 Watford

Championship · · Cardiff City Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Cardiff · Watford · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Cardiff 5–1 Watford — Cardiff won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.52 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Cardiff beat Watford 5–1 at Cardiff City Stadium in the Championship on Tuesday 13 October. Cardiff are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Watford.

The goals

Cardiff led 4–0 at half-time. The goals TACTIX’s match events name — Cardiff: Jack Moylan (11’ pen; 35’, assisted by Cian Ashford), Ollie Tanner (45’, assisted by Perry Ng) and Callum Robinson (85’, assisted by David Turnbull); Watford: an own goal by Matthew Pollock (41’) and Hector Kyprianou (87’, assisted by Iker Bravo).

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Cardiff 3.67, Watford 1.46, from 22 shots to 14 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

John Busby, England showed five yellow cards — against 3.5 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Cardiff: Perry Ng (86’); Watford: Martín Payero (9’), Edouard Kayembe (73’), Amin Nabizada (86’) and Hector Kyprianou (90+5’).

What it changes

Cardiff move up from 21st to 17th (10 league matches played). Cardiff have scored 22 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Cardiff have conceded 23 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Watford move down from 20th to 22nd (10 league matches played). Watford have scored 13 goals, the fourth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Watford have conceded 23 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Watford have lost their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Jack Moylan (Cardiff) 11.4, Perry Ng (Cardiff) 8.3 and Federico Ravaglia (Watford) 7.9 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Cardiff next host Burnley on 7 November 2026.

Watford next host Middlesbrough on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Cardiff: Cardiff v Burnley, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Watford: Watford v Middlesbrough, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Cardiff 5–1 Watford · Championship
  • Venue: Cardiff City Stadium · Caerdydd
  • Referee: John Busby, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Cardiff 3 · draws 2 · Watford 1 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Cardiff 1W 1D 3L · Watford 1W 0D 4L

Cardiff 5–1 Watford (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 27 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 0.63
Goals
against 1.63 / 2.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
7.25 / 3.75
Corners
against 4 / 4.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.88 / 3.75
Shots on target
against 4.5 / 6.25 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.38 / 2.13
Cards
against 1.75 / 1.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.5 yellows
Referee · John Busby, England
21.5 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 10 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 10 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameCardiff for / againstLineWatford for / against
Goals scored
1.13 for · 1.63 against n 8
3.25our book
0.63 for · 2.13 against n 8
Corners won
7.25 for · 4 against n 8
9.5standard
3.75 for · 4.88 against n 8
Shots
18.13 for · 11.88 against n 8
19.5standard
12.25 for · 16.13 against n 8
Shots on target
5.88 for · 4.5 against n 8
8.5standard
3.75 for · 6.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.25 for · 13.63 against n 8
21.5standard
10.75 for · 9.63 against n 8
Cards shown
2.38 for · 1.75 against n 8
3.5standard
2.13 for · 1.63 against n 8

Referee: John Busby, England — 3.5 yellow cards a game, 0.1 red cards, 21.5 fouls over 10 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Cardiff

Cardiff Goalkeeper

Cardiff — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
N. Trott1190990 min333 /90181.6 /9000 /90
Cardiff — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
N. Trott n 890
2.87/4

Cardiff Defensive

Cardiff — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
P. Ng1190990 min191.7 /9090.8 /9050.5 /90585.3 /90121.1 /9040.4 /90
Joel Bagan1189977 min222 /90100.9 /90111 /90444.1 /9050.5 /9010.1 /90
G. Osho989802 min111.2 /9070.8 /9091 /90353.9 /9040.4 /9000 /90
K. Bielik682493 min50.9 /9081.5 /9020.4 /90386.9 /9061.1 /9010.2 /90
R. Kpakio390270 min51.7 /9020.7 /9000 /90175.7 /9062 /9000 /90
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Cardiff — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
P. Ng n 890
1.36/3
2.38/6
M. Pollock
N. Trott n 890
00/0
0.43/0
—
A. Robertson n 889.8
0.96/1
15/3
Hector Kyprianou
Joel Bagan n 888.4
0.42/1
0.54/0
M. Pollock
J. Moylan n 878.8
0.94/1
27/4
—
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Cardiff — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
P. Ng n 890
1.88/3
A. Robertson n 889.8
1.87/4
Joel Bagan n 888.4
1.97/4
J. Moylan n 878.8
1.17/1
C. Willock n 858
0.62/1
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Cardiff Attacking

Cardiff — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Y. Salech1081813 min50.6 /9020.2 /90262.9 /90171.9 /9080.9 /9020.2 /90
I. Davies441163 min00 /9000 /9021.1 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
C. Robinson351154 min10.6 /9000 /9031.8 /9031.8 /9010.6 /9010.6 /90
A. Robertson1189978 min00 /9000 /9060.6 /9030.3 /90191.7 /9050.5 /90
J. Moylan1174809 min40.4 /9020.2 /90222.4 /90101.1 /90121.3 /90111.2 /90
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Cardiff — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
P. Ng n 890
15/2
0.42/1
N. Trott n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Robertson n 889.8
0.65/0
0.43/0
Joel Bagan n 888.4
0.43/0
0.32/0
J. Moylan n 878.8
2.47/4
1.15/2
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Cardiff — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
P. Ng n 890
0.11/0
00/0
N. Trott n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Robertson n 889.8
00/0
00/0
Joel Bagan n 888.4
00/0
00/0
J. Moylan n 878.8
0.42/1
0.32/0
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Watford

Watford Goalkeeper

Watford — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
F. Ravaglia1091912 min353.5 /90141.4 /9000 /90
D. Bachmann19090 min66 /9055 /9000 /90
Watford — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
F. Ravaglia n 890
3.86/6
D. Bachmann n 890
2.96/5

Watford Defensive

Watford — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Pollock1091912 min141.4 /90121.2 /90151.5 /90403.9 /90121.2 /9020.2 /90
K. Keben1087867 min131.3 /9050.5 /90101 /90333.4 /9090.9 /9020.2 /90
O. Traoré870556 min71.1 /9050.8 /9010.2 /90172.8 /9081.3 /9010.2 /90
J. Zemura862497 min112 /9081.4 /9010.2 /90305.4 /9071.3 /9010.2 /90
S. Coulibaly464256 min31.1 /9020.7 /9020.7 /90113.9 /9010.4 /9000 /90
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Watford — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Hector Kyprianou n 882.9
1.26/2
1.24/4
A. Robertson
O. Maamma n 851.9
1.35/1
0.93/1
—
Amin Nabizada n 846.5
1.94/3
0.73/0
—
M. Pollock n 890
1.15/2
0.53/1
Joel Bagan
F. Ravaglia n 890
00/0
0.32/0
—
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Watford — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Hector Kyprianou n 882.9
1.46/4
O. Maamma n 851.9
37/4
Amin Nabizada n 846.5
1.95/1
M. Pollock n 890
1.48/2
K. Keben n 884.4
1.25/1
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Watford Attacking

Watford — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
M. Doumbia1067674 min20.3 /9000 /90141.9 /9070.9 /9060.8 /9020.3 /90
Rocco Vata933295 min00 /9000 /90113.4 /9051.5 /9072.1 /9041.2 /90
L. Kjerrumgaard762433 min10.2 /9000 /90102.1 /9030.6 /9051 /9020.4 /90
S. Mavididi439154 min00 /9000 /9021.2 /9010.6 /9021.2 /9042.3 /90
M. Boadu22550 min00 /9000 /9011.8 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
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Watford — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Hector Kyprianou n 882.9
0.74/1
0.32/0
O. Maamma n 851.9
1.14/1
0.42/0
Amin Nabizada n 846.5
1.54/2
1.24/1
M. Pollock n 890
0.43/0
0.32/0
F. Ravaglia n 890
00/0
00/0
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Watford — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Hector Kyprianou n 882.9
00/0
00/0
O. Maamma n 851.9
00/0
00/0
Amin Nabizada n 846.5
0.52/0
0.21/0
M. Pollock n 890
00/0
00/0
F. Ravaglia n 890
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
CardiffWatford
58%Possession42%
3.67Expected goals (xG)1.46
22Shots14
10Shots on target4
7Shots off target7
5Blocked shots3
14Shots inside the box10
6Corners1
4Offsides4
12Fouls12
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
3Saves6
494Passes358
87%Pass accuracy79%

Cardiff Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
N. Trott9000000007.2
A. Robertson9000102007.3
G. Osho9000100007.3
P. Ng90010033Y7.3
J. Colwill9000000106.7
Cian Ashford9001112106.9
O. Tanner8210412107.9
Joel Bagan8200001107.3
C. Willock6900111007.5
J. Moylan6920641008.3
D. Lawlor2900110007.5
W. Fish sub6100001107
D. Turnbull sub2101111106.9
C. Scanlon sub2100000006.2
C. Robinson sub810110007.6
I. Davies sub800000006.6

Watford Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
F. Ravaglia9000000007.2
O. Traoré9000000405.7
M. Pollock9000000105.2
Hector Kyprianou90101113Y7.7
K. Keben9000000306.2
E. Kayembe90001013Y5.9
O. Maamma6900202205.9
M. Payero67001010Y5.9
J. Zemura5600200105
S. Mavididi5600001006.9
M. Boadu5600111006.7
M. Doumbia sub3400222006.2
M. Bola sub3400000006.7
Amin Nabizada sub34000002Y6.9
Iker Bravo sub2301101007
K. Diatta sub2100001106.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Cardiff v Watford — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
CardiffLDLWL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
WatfordLWLLL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 0.6 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Cardiff 3 · 2 draws · Watford 1 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2025-01-14 Cardiff 1–1 Watford
  • 2024-12-29 Watford 1–2 Cardiff
  • 2024-02-03 Watford 0–1 Cardiff
  • 2023-10-07 Cardiff 1–1 Watford
  • 2023-04-19 Watford 1–3 Cardiff
  • 2022-11-02 Cardiff 1–2 Watford
League standing · 2026/27
Cardiff#18 pos15 pts14 pl-1 GD
Watford#20 pos14 pts14 pl-10 GD
Goals per game
Cardiff scored1.57
Watford scored0.93
Cardiff conceded1.64
Watford conceded1.64

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Cardiff v Watford?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Cardiff v Watford was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.52 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Watford?
In their last 6 meetings, Cardiff won 3, Watford won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Cardiff and Watford?
Recent form — Cardiff 1W 1D 3L; Watford 1W 0D 4L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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